Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

I know a couple of people who voted leave as they felt that the same immigration policy should be applied to EU citizens and non-EU citizens. In pure principle its a point I get. However even they've come to realise that nothing is ever that simple and any trade deal with anyone is going to come with a more relaxed attitude on immigration from those countries.

Thats really interesting so - all trade agreements around the world include relaxed immigration - is that correct?

You're quite right: we haven't left yet. So we haven't yet felt the full damage to our economy.

We are however already feeling the damage to our reputation . May the Malteaser being cut down to size in Malta for trying to grandstand on her achievement of a "nod" of commitment from Trump about NATO ("We can follow his Twitter feed to find put what he thinks" paraphrasing )

I am ashamed of what this Government is doing - and livid that it is trying to claim that I am supporting it . I am not.

They can claim it is a populist choice. But it is not the popular choice. And they cannot claim that a majority voted for it because that wasn't the question on the ballot paper.

....In the interests of full disclosure, I was naturalised when I was 10, as soon as it was possible (apparently it used to be 7 years) so didn't really have much choice about it

But Pretty bird...good news on north sea today, huh?

'

Not had the chance to see the news yet today so don't know what you're referring to, Bored

Well if we're banking on the English speaking nations and the Commonwealth in the absence of the EU:
Australia and India have demanded relaxation of immigration rules
Relaxation has been talked about with the US
Relaxation is being mooted for commonwealth countries

Its pretty standard within trade deals there's some element of immigration relaxation.

So.... That's what part of for the course of trade deals is then? With all trade deals round the world comes with a relaxation of immigration between those countries?

Bored interesting things happen to good news on brexit in the confines of this thread

This, PB:

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/11/north-sea-set-roll-barrels-region-thrown-unlikely-lifeline/amp/?client=safari

Its pretty standard within trade deals there's some element of immigration relaxation.

That's not all trade deals. But keep trying to place words in if you wish.

MrExit yes, it goes down the rabbit hole and comes out all shrunken😂

Interesting bored. That'll make my DF happy.

Thanks for the new thread, red
We keep you very busy creating new ones every few days !

India wasn't asking about tourist visas - during May's visit she found they are demanding more visas for dependents and also lowering the income requirement.
Similarly other countries
The UK will have to budge on immigration to get trade deals or just accept TTIP on steroids with the US

All these countries leaders - including Trump - know the Uk is desperate and under time pressure
It would be wiser to Brexit with a transition period of 5 years say, optionally extendable, so the UK trade negotiators don't wear "screw me" T-shirts

Shrunken and covered in grime.

There's nothing particularly new about that news: good news about North Sea oil comes and goes and isn't always reported unlike bad news, eg the new oil fields to the west of the Shetlands. North Sea oil is a bonus and isn't the basis on which to base an economy . Although if we'd done what the Norwegians had done and built a Sovereign Wealth Fund rather than use the income from the last 40 years to build up the South East and make the UK economy less stable then we'd be in a better position to cope with the swings and roundabouts and when it runs out

If you are in a strong position in any negotiation, you get more of what you want than the other side do.
If you are in a weak position, under time pressure, you suck up what terms you can get, or give up on the deal.

Countries join trade blocs so they have more clout to negotiate better deals
I can't find a record of any other country who has left their trade bloc to go it alone, or how they did afterwards.
There seem to be about 6 countries on their own who haven't joined any, but the remaining 190 countries all belong to trade blocs

So all this a huge leap in the dark
I'd be more confident if May hadn't chosen the 3 Dunces as her Brexit ministers.

A few people have mentioned how this used to be the most measured thread on Brexit and how it would be good to get back to that.

I agree as I would naturally gravitate towards a more moderate/reasoned view and looking for the positives in a situation. It's just hard as we are being railroaded towards a hard Brexit it naturally polarises opinion on both sides.

There is no 'soft brexit' so you're either on board with ending FOM, single market, euratom, no guarantees for EU citizens etc etc or you're not. No middle ground.

Is it any wonder we are getting further apart in our views rather than closer?

Anthony Wells on YouGov has analysed the lose-lose situation Brexit brings for Labour

In their pathetic chaos, Labour's main hope of winning a GE before 2030 is that Brexit is a complete disaster which crashes the economy.
Otherwise, blank check for the Tories to completely reshape the country for the next 15 years. They look much more united and focused on power, as usual.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/02/07/what-brexit-stance-can-keep-labour-together/

"By a solid majority of 61% to 33% its 2015 voters backed Remain at the referendum.
However, the 33% of Labour-Leave voters are disproportionately the traditional working class Labour voters that the party is struggling to keep hold of.
70% of Labour Remainers are middle class, drawn mostly from the professional classes.
Labour Leavers are 60% working class, mostly those working in routine occupations or surviving on benefits. Labour Remainers tend to be graduates, Labour leavers tend to have few or no qualifications."

The least bad option for Labour, which angers the fewest of their voters is to support Soft Brexit:

Bigchoc. - there are two entirely different things being talked about with regards to visas on this thread

1/ The idea that 45 MPs have to relax visas for Commonwealth visitors.

2/ India and several other countries who were discussing trade deals where trying to suggest they wanted improved immigration rights for their citizens as part of their possible trade deal.

Not all trade deals involve relaxation of immigration either.

No one has actually said that corcory
I've said a couple of my friends have come to the realisation that more relaxed immigration rules with come hand in hand with a trade deals (as in they've realised the ideal that all immigrants will be treated equally is unlikely to happen).

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/11/donald-trumps-state-visit-uk-may-moved-london-brexit-heartland/

Donald Trump's state visit to UK may be moved from London to Brexit heartland amid security concerns

Is this based on the idea that Brexiters are more likely to welcome a pussy-grabbing, misogynistic, bigoted, lying, morally- and financially-bankrupt overgrown toddler? Where on earth could anybody have gotten that idea?

I repeat, in a weak position, the Uk will have to take whatever deals it can get
That means sucking up to Trump & Erdogan. That probably means sucking up immigraion.
Preliminary talks with India, Australia, China and even US all indicate they want more immigration into the UK as part of a trade deal
Probably Pakistan & other poorer Commonwealth countries will too.

Donald Trump's state visit to UK may be moved from London to Brexit heartland amid security concerns
We refer to our area as Brexitopia, we're on the Essex/London border. They wouldn't have to move him as far as the Midlands.
I would say they could take him to Legoland to meet by the Big Ben model but Windsor voted remain.