Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Radio City News @RadioCityNews
UKIP leader Paul Nuttall admits on @RadioCityTalk that claims on his website that he lost a close personal friend at Hillsborough are false

twitter.com/RadioCityNews/status/831493111989862402

Video is even more cringeworthy than you might think. Nuttall, is shown where on his website it said it.

Then makes a point about his family have been accused over Hillsborough.

Well mate, if you were not openly admitting there are lies about your experience with Hillsborough, I'd have a shred of sympathy.

Kudos to the 'Justice for the 96' for their strength and humanity: they are the real Liverpudlian heroes.

I think it's the Remainers who are the Roundheads, not wanting government by edict and wanting Parliament to have a say in what happens.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-immigration-retirement-age-young-people-a7578471.html

So young people (unde 40yo) might have to work longer as there would be less working people to pay taxes...
I suspect that pensions will also be much much lower...

Another side effect of Brexit and reducing immigration then

You may well be right Patty
Nice Manchunian take on historic parallels here, consensus with historians is interesting on 1792 ( when there was trouble in France and revolution in the air):
On the other side were the Tories who believed they defended sacred British traditions, in other words they thought Walker was wrong. They set up the Church and King Club and engineered mobs in 1792, fuelled by free alcohol and patriotic rhetoric, to burn down chapels, wreck the Herald's offices and beseige Walker in his own house for three days. Much of the rhetoric concerned the danger from foreigners and Papists. The magistrates and constables stood by and watched.
www.manchesterconfidential.co.uk/news/brexit-trump-parallels-from-manchesters-past

Denis MacShane @DenisMacShane 20mins
In @LePoint Nissan-Renault CEO C Ghosen says "If walls are built between the EU and GB, investments will be reduced"

In @LePoint Nissan-Renault CEO C Ghosen says "If walls are built between the EU and GB, investments will be reduced"

That's twice now, the first being at Davos, where he has implied that it's not necessarily all going to be hunky-dory with Nissan. Despite Theresa May's promises last Autumn.

Is this a second 'this isn't what you promised us' dig?

I know that if I worked for Nissan I would not be reassured. I do have friends at the BMW plant in Oxford. I would say there is nothing tangible, they are carrying on doing their jobs, but there is a feeling of unease.

Massive Toyota plant here
I'm not hopeful tbh

....and dh was speaking to someone in our
County planning dept last week (work related) who seems to think that a long planned cargo hub will no longer be built now.
I'm also thinking that our regional airport will suffer
But it could just be "project fear" i suppose 🙄

Since our three big industries in Oxford and surrounds are Higher Education, Atomic Energy and Car manufacturing there is a strong feeling that we have been sold down the river.

Both Ed Vaizey, Wantage and Nicola Blackwood, Oxford West and Abingdon were bleating in the local paper about the lack of consultation over pulling out of Euratom. Not that it stopped them voting for A50 to be invoked.

Oh get used to the bleating peregrina!
It will be a cacophony soon....

To all remoaners, please explain what part of 'you lost, we won' you don't understand.

Ooh a customer, how much do you get paid?

To all goady leavers...
Why don't you stay on the brexit arms thread with like minded folk and await the dawn of the new Albion??

Took a break from studying & read the links - wish I'd carried on studying......!!

Further question on remaining in the customs union vs single market:

As I understand it, membership of the single market comes with the 4 pillars (including unrestricted FOM), but membership of the customs union is just goods related.

Wrt movement of goods between NI/Ireland & also by extension of goods between the island of Ireland & the rest of UK, remaining wholly within the customs union would solve the border problem (ignoring movement of people)?

Is that right?

Movement of people between NI & Ireland and rest of UK is then something that would be tackled separately.

Mother...
It will be
Timing is all
The MPs have shown their true colours (yellow) and as soon as public opinion is seen to be moving away from populism they will come out of the woodwork...
"As I said at the time of the A50 vote I was against leaving the EU, and I voted leave with great reluctance....."
Mimsy bastard quisling fucks

They're clearly not believers Peregrina. (Ed and his mates) Project fear was referred to by my friend in UKIP. It's real, apparently, even in his broken English( a characteristic of believers). After all those years foolishly trusting in the enlightenment I've discovered that I just need to wear a bonnet, believe and carry the inevitable, in case of David Davies and the others.

It's simpler; fascism, I'll say that for it

Plus no worries with relativist constructs like 'truth' look at the brightest and best and his mis recollections about Hillsborough.

Lying and believing is fun!

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/14/hillsborough-families-dismayed-by-paul-nuttalls-insulting-admission

At the risk of being inflammatory something has been bothering me....is the proposed relaxation on commonwealth FOM (due to those BIGLY TERRIFIC trade deals we are going to get with some of poorest countries on earth....) is that ok with leavers?
Is it as simple as they are the "right" kind of brown? 😞😞
That is, poor and grateful?
Fuck 😞

As a PS to the Turkey - NI question - Semi claims Fox has hinted at a Turkey style CU.

If that's true either Fox hasn't read the small print or he's firmly in cakeandeatitland, because the CU with Turkey means a common external tariff and common trade policy for countries outside the EU, thus little freedom to develop trade deals with other countries.

Turkey has around 20 FTAs but they're rather a one-way street that put Turkish firms at a competitive disadvantage. Turkey has to open its markets to any country the EU makes a deal with, but it has no input into those deals, it doesn’t even get the same duty free access to those countries' markets that EU members have.

Theoretically, Turkey could make its own trade deals for sectors not covered by the CU, eg agriculture. But in reality this is so complex that Turkey has not struck a significant deal with anywhere outside the EU trade network.

Furthermore Turkey has to go along with the EU’s position at the WTO, so the UK would not have a fully independent WTO status.

There have been peeps that the government Is considering CU for certain sectors, such as the car industry. But this would still mean no political control of the rules and problems for external trade policy.

So much good detailed info today, thanks all

the CU with Turkey

This should say the Turkey CU.