Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Banks and Murdock think they are untouchable
Sadly that seems to be true

Its funny, UKIP are said to be worried about a win in Stoke too

A Nuttells win will make Banks' Westmonster party more complicated.

Only good thing, is they hate each other more than they hate everyone else.

These types always destroy each other viciously, it's just a matter of how much collateral damage there is.

Murdoch isn't affected by Liverpool's boycott, it's small fry in his international empire, but UKIP cant afford to to turn a whole city against them.

TatianaLarina what levels of support are there for UKIP in Liverpool do you think?

Support for UKIP in Liverpool, is not as high as in other places.

Liverpool itself is REMAIN.

Some people put this down to the city not reading the Sun and being brainwashed in the same way as other parts of the country.

Make of that what you will.

Thanks Misti, am reading and absorbing.

Regarding semis points; so no one gets what they want
Badders, I don't believe the extremes on each side will get what they want, no.

But I do think that there will be something that is palatable to the broad middle ground.

For me, out of the EU is just the first step of what I imagine will be a very long road.
So if, in 2 years, we are still in the single market etc so be it. It is not what I want at all as an end point, but I am not stupid - I realise it's too complicated to be done & dusted in that space of time.

For now, once A50 is triggered, I am happy enough that we will have started the process of disentanglement from the EU behemoth.

rtb a family member of mine made a very similar point regarding the Wirral too, which isn't a massive sun readership area either due to their Hillsborough coverage.

so if, in 2 years, we are still in the Single Market etc so be it

semi how do you see that being a possibility?

The way I see it that can't happen because it will mean renaging on FOM.

If we have no deal at the end of the 2 years we can't just stay in the Single Market.

Thanks red.
Good school, better humour, in Liverpool. And Orange marches. Gonna be a hot summer I think.

nice to see some genuine two-way exchanges at long last. Contrary to what some have said I think it is important to understand what motivated people to vote to leave the EU, because this is relevant to future policy.

In which spirit, do you mind me asking semi why you see being out of the single market as something of great importance in the long run? I guess this comes down to what 'single market' means in practice, but I don't really know enough about trade to have a strong feeling either way.

Cities in general tend towards Remain - Newcastle, Manchester, Bristol, London etc so Liverpool is part of that trend.

But in the election, while Labour retained its seats, the UKIP vote surged so that it was second place in a number of Mersey constituencies.

I'm going to go on a bit of rangeant but do you think we will see that sort of advert/behaviour in the in the future?

www.onedayonly.co.za/blog/?post=this-danish-tv-ad-is-literally-the-best-weve-ever-seen-300

ahhh, crossposted. I can see why people would feel strongly about 'single market' if that's a synonym for FoM but I do find it annoying that no-one has specified what 'access to the free market' means. Is that the same thing or something different?

Semi...How can we stay in the SM?
That means we have to keep FOM....that won't wash with most leavers, surely?

I agree, a long, hot, possibly riotous summer ahead....

Single market, obvs.

Or do you think most leaves don't care about FOM? The data would suggest that is far from the case

I cannot see the EU agreeing to this self-serving hotchpotch.

Even if the EU member states wanted such a deal, I doubt it would be legal. Has to comply with both EU law and GATT, as well as getting the agreement of the EU27.

I think semi has a point, although I'd go further and say that at present, the least likely outcome is an orderly exit with a deal in March 2019. Not sure whether the most likely outcome is a chaotic exit with no deal (possibly without even a WTO position to fall back on) or an agreement to actually not exit at all, but to remain in the SM, and therefore presumably in the EEA, for a period of time. The latter will only happen if the government recognises the risk of the former fairly sharpish, so the relative probabilities will become clearer in the near future.

UKIP's performance in Merseyside in 2015

Birkenhead - 3838 3rd (9.80%)
Bootle - 4915 2nd (10.90%)
Garston and Halewood - 4482 3rd (9.20%)
Knowsley - 4973 2nd (9.80%)
Liverpool, Riverside - 2510 4th (5.70%)
Liverpool, Walton - 3445 2nd (9.00%)
Liverpool, Wavertree - 3375 3rd (8.20%)
Liverpool, West Derby - 3475 2nd (8.50%)
Sefton Central - 4879 3rd (10%)
Southport - 7429 4th (16.80%)
St Helens North - 6983 3rd (15.10%)
St Helens South and Whiston - 6766 3rd (14%)
Wallasey - 5063 3rd (11.70%)
Wirral South - 3737 3rd (8.90%)
Wirral West - 2772 3rd (6.60%)

Banks is not bothered about being controversial about Merseyside. None of the above Merseyside seats are likely to be UKIP targets. The two St Helens seats are the best chance and they are still an outside chance. The closest two seats that are decent UKIP targets are Wigan (Lisa Nandy) and Leigh (Andy Burnham).

Lisa Nandy will be difficult to take out. Leigh was going to be where Nuttall planned to stand next until Stoke came out. Personally I think he perhaps had a better shot in Leigh, but we shall see.

Anti-Liverpool comments may go down well, in certain parts of the country. Scousers still have the stereotype of being lazy, thieves or on benefits to some. UKIP can afford to go on the attack about that - and perhaps break

Eeeeoww, for me it is the single market = free movement conundrum.

There are quite a few things I googled about the differences between free trade area, single market & customs union.....
It's v confusing!

Thanks for the responses Semi and Misti. Whilst the government can't give any answers until negotiations begin, I feel that the regulated industries need as much warning as possible regarding where we plan to be when we exit the EU. I'm desperately hoping that this is happening behind the scenes. The shear volume of regulations involved is overwhelming and implementing any changes takes a long time and A LOT of work. I'm moving into the regulatory side of things so maybe this will mean more work for me (hopeful face).

Fingers crossed that your right, Semi, and we end up with a reasoned approach to negotiations.

sorry posted too soon,

and perhaps break the associations around being Scouse that Nuttall personally has at the same time.

*you're
Oops!

Nuttall himself said of his Bootle after the election:

"To come second here, and in other seats around the country, sends a message out that it’s time for change... But now we are in second place we become the opposition here, and in 2020 we can look to make real gains."

Even though I pretend to be Theresa May, sadly I'm in no position of power at all Bolshy
I just have to hope like everyone else that the negotiations are going to be approached sensibly.

Four constituencies in which UKIP is in second place, where the vote share increased at the last election, is not to be sniffed at.

I don't agree that Banks isn't bothered about being controversial there, I think he, like many Kippers, Nuttall included, doesn't think before speaks. (Or punches as the case may be.)