Westministenders: Ding Ding Ding! All Aboard! Boris’s Brexit Bus gets going.

[RedToothBrush]

The Judges have Ruled.

They have restored parliamentary sovereignty to the people from the crown. Hard line Brexiteers don’t like it. This is how democracy looks though. Everyone gets a say, even people who you don’t agree with. Bloody Bremoaners. If irony wasn’t dead on 24th June, it was hung drawn and quartered on 24th Jan. I hope in time Gina Miller will get the recognition she deserves in history.

What does it actually mean for Brexit though? Can Brexit be thwarted by the decision?

Short Answer: No Brexit can not be stopped. The ‘Will of the People’ will be respected ultimately. (Though also worth stating the ‘Will of the People’ is not a fixed thing. The 23rd June vote was a mere snapshot of a moment in time. The Will of the People is ever changing and this should never be forgotten).

A majority of MPs have pledged to vote for a50. Whether the LDs, Greens, Labour Remainers and SNP oppose Brexit is ultimately irrelevant. Talks of ‘frustrating Brexit’ is nothing more than hot air from people frustrated they are not getting everything on their terms alone.

Why is the ruling important though? What next? What you should look out for? (Trying to keep this as brief as possible on immediate effect)

1. There is no reason (at this point) to suggest that May will miss her March 31st deadline.

2. The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill is scheduled to go through the HoC between Jan 31 and Feb 8. Two days of debate will be in the HoC on Tuesday (with parliament sitting until midnight) and Wednesday with the key vote on Wednesday. The following week on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will go to the committee and report stages and for the third reading (See this FT article Brexit bill likely to face biggest trials in House of Lords for details of what happens at what stage). That makes 5 days total and is significantly less than other important European decisions. It is being viewed as an attempt to gag parliament by many.

3. The opposition normally agree to common’s timetabling before making such announcements. Several Labour and Conservative MPs are calling for Labour to vote against the timetable. It is not clear normal procedure has been followed, on this occasion, however Corbyn has imposed a three line whip on it after a heated shadow Cabinet meeting. This seems to suggest Labour whips agreed timetable. A large scale rebellion and (more) shadow cabinet resignations could well be on the cards.

4. Lords could yet, get more time to debate the bill than Commons, due to government not setting debating time. That alone would be something of a scandal.

5. The government have conceded over the publication of a white paper and say it now will happen, however rumours are that the government are trying to delay its publication until AFTER the a50 debate has finished. This makes the whole thing a farce. Its not obvious what Tory Rebels will do under the circumstances. It is theoretically possible there may be enough for a government defeat, but that is a now an extreme possibility with Corbyn imposing a three line whip. (That in itself might embolden a few Tories though).

6. When MPs voted to support a50 in December this only passed due to an amendment requiring the government to produce a plan. Always worth remembering this important caveat. It will be omitted by a lot of media coming media coverage if MPs support any amendments or seek to obstruct a vote due to a lack of detail as a ‘betrayal’. It is not. It is a consistent request and a necessary part of scrutiny.

7. The Brexit Select Committee which is supposed to scrutinise the government just got more important. Its recommendations carry weight and will influence the decisions that MPs make.

8. Amendments to a50 law will be crucial. The SNP have suggested they want FIFTY. Most will just be rubbish, but they hopefully would have at least generate proper debate. This could be a worthwhile process regardless of how it might be framed, however the timetable makes that difficult if not impossible to do. Rather than frustrating things it could have been part of a positive process to help build consensus and tackle certain concerns.

9. Labour has been handed a chance to get out of the government blaming them for a bad deal. It gives them a chance to hold the government more accountable and get their teeth into things. It is their chance to throw away. They need to stand up and not roll over. Corbyn's Three Line Whip is exactly that. Now is the time to pester MPs over amendments. (Equally applies to Leavers concerned about Tory Brexit).

10. Chuka Umunna has suggested an amendment to give £350 million to the NHS. It would be an opportunity to draw some much needed battle lines about the future of the NHS and a chance to make ground to protect it which would be an important position for Labour. I don’t see it happening, but you can hope.

11. The danger for Labour is to join SNP in a ‘road block’ of amendments. They will need to be selective in their approach.

12. What Rebel Tories do next is important. These are both Leavers and Remainers and this should not be forgotten. It gives them a lot more power.

13. The Supreme Court ruled against the devolved assemblies. This has two effects. It might heighten the temptation and support for Independence. It might also force nationalists to work with their English peers where there is common ground. Thus unifying opposition in the United Kingdom.

14. The legal position is now established as the GFA only refers to NI’s place in the UK, not the EU. This leaves the door open for NI to choose Ireland and the EU. Similar rejection of the Sewell convention having legal effect, makes the case for a new Scottish Independence bid.

15. How 10) and 11) are handled is crucial to the country’s future. May needs to be more sensitive. Whilst there is no appetite for independence / reunification at present this may yet change as a result of Brexit. It does not necessarily weaken the nationalist’s hands in the long run. Amendments relating to assurance around devolution could still be a sticking point if other parties support. (I think fair chance they will in order to try and prevent break up of the UK. England & Wales dominated by Conservatives forever otherwise). It also put DUP in interesting position.

16. May is doing more shit stirring in NI saying the IRA needs to be investigated more and suggesting soldiers were ‘persecuted’. This is inflammatory stuff. If she carries on, don’t expect the GFA to last. At this point, I might be tempted to say, that she wants it to break so she can enforce Brexit and remove the Human Rights Act.

17. The issue of a50 reversibility has not gone away. The positions of the Labour Party and the Lib Dems would be vastly strengthened by reversibility. This is not to stop Brexit as such, but because it strengthens their demands to get a deal that they think is in the best interests of the UK because it would be potentially easier to reject a Tory Brexit. The legal case to try and get an ECJ referral is ongoing in Ireland and is important.

18. The possibility of a second referendum, has also not gone away gone away. If EU states have to agree to a deal and some put it to their citizens, that makes it more politically difficult for it not to be put to the British.

19. There is still a strong chance of more legal challenges to Brexit. There are lots of unresolved issues relating to rights which the Supreme Court did not resolve through the a50 challenge. This is for government to decide upon – and if it does not address those issues, then individuals will have no alternative to go through the courts to seek clarity on their positions. Most notably is positions of British Citizens abroad and EU citizen married or with children in UK.

20. Government has made a notable backtracking about the role of the rule of law and the authority of the courts. This is progress and perhaps an acknowledgement of how they handled it so poorly in December and how they can not act unopposed.

21. May’s speech last week was protective against this, so she can make the political point that she tried. She has in some ways protected herself against a Kipper backlash by actually proving it was not possible to carry out some of their proposals. This might actually be good in the long run for fighting the far right in the UK.

22. The Government Appeal was effectively totally unnecessary. Expect a FOI request to give someone a stick to beat the government with.

23. Don’t forget the Lords. They ultimately won’t oppose a50. It threatens their existence and would provoke a constitutional crisis which most will seek to prevent. Their job is to act in the national interest, to act for the best interests of the people, to uphold democracy and our constitutional framework. That means they can not ultimately block a50. They might insist on amendments though, especially if the Commons don’t do their job properly.

24. The Stoke and Copeland By-Elections are unlikely to be too affected by the ruling at this stage – as it is unchanged from Dec This might change though. If a50 going through parliament has been concluded by 23rd Feb, Remainers are most likely to be unhappy. If a50 bill looks like it is being ‘road blocked’ Leavers might get more enraged and motivated to turnout.

25. None of this means that Hard Brexit won’t happen. The EU still has the upper hand here. The deal we are seeking might not be possible. It does however mean that parliament rather than the government should have a more active role in proceedings.

26. Final point is that the ruling gives a chance of consensus in the National Interest and not just that of Hardline Leavers. The wording of the bill, perhaps doesn't. It looks like May’s Tory First Policy, is still full steam ahead. I thought it would change the tone of debate as the government would be forced to change tact. Its not looking likely.

Next stop on the Brexit –Aeroplane-- Bus; Trump's America.

That’s sure to be guaranteed torture to witness.

But the only attack in the US specifically on Christians was by a white supremacist who murdered 9 African Americans in their church, including the pastor, in 2015

Skwawkbox

I'm a bit wary of Skwawkbox - very pro-Corbyn - but they're right about this. The media has continually focussed on the splits in Labour and ignored the mess the Tories (the actual Government) are in.

Interestingly, Saudi Arabia declared atheists to be terrorists.

"Article one of the new provisions defines terrorism as "calling for atheist thought in any form, or calling into question the fundamentals of the Islamic religion on which this country is based"."

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-declares-all-atheists-are-terrorists-in-new-law-to-crack-down-on-political-dissidents-9228389.html

Poor old atheists.

If Farage or Nuttall ever became PM, we'd have similar horrors here.
Do NOT let that happen
Sometimes you have to "vote for the crook, not the fascist"
Some Sanders supporters stayed home in pique. Other Democrats couldn't stand the Clinton sleaze.

I've always assumed if the Uk had a collective brainfart at a GE, that the US and the EU would keep us from the most extreme policies of a demagogue

BUT the US is currently led by a fascist psycho and we're leaving the EU ...

maybe even leaving the ECHR too if May continues on her power trip.
I always assumed that would be impossible to do, because it's a prerequisite of belonging to the EEA / EFTA as well as the EU, but ....

Elizabeth Warren has been at Boston airport.

Which is good. But, worryingly, when I googled to find the story, a Shitebart link cropped up first. Clearly, they're working on making sure their stores appear first when searched for. The opposition need to be working on this. Jon Ronson writes about this in his Shamed book.

It is amazing how often the Con's talking heads are asked on Daily Politics to spend a lot of their time commenting about Labour and their travails. To comfortably spend airtime commenting about the mote in their brother's eye and ignore the beam in their own. Instead of being held to account for what they are doing as the party in Government. They are let off so lightly. Neil appears to me to be a clear Con and Murdoch man.

"Sometimes you have to "vote for the crook, not the fascist""

That's exactly why Will Self was getting so infuriated with Dreda Say Mitchell before the referendum. If you had misgivings about the EU, accept that by voting Leave, you're getting into bed with Farridge.

"Neil appears to me to be a clear Con and Murdoch man."

He totally is but today I thought his body language made it quite clear how odious he finds Farage.

I agree with that. In the US, if you didn't vote for Clinton in this election, you basically allowed another unopposed vote for Trump.

In the real world, you have to be tactical. Clinton looks like a relative girl scout now.

Still let him blather on and divert. Maybe that was just incompetence. He seems to dislike the SNP more. Except John Nicholson.

The Madness of King Donald:

NY Daily News

politicsusa.com

usnews.com

The DHA simply cannot defy a court order. Neither the president nor the institutions of state are above the law. Only a true Nazi could believe they are.
This is absolutely outrageous.

Here is the ruling:

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
EASTERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK

DECISION AND ORDER
17 Civ. 480 (AMD)

HAMEED KHALID DARWEESH and HAIDER SAMEER ABDULKHALEQ ALSHAWI, on behalf of themselves and others similarly situated,

Petitioners,

• against -

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States; U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY ("DHS"); U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION ("CBP"); JOHN KELLY, Secretary of DHS; KEVIN K. MCALEENAN, Acting Commissioner of CBP; JAMES T. MADDEN, New York Field Director, CBP,,

Respondents.

ANN DONNELLY, District Judge.

On January 28, 2017, the petitioners filed an Emergency Motion of Stay of Removal on behalf of themselves and others similarly situated.

IT APPEARING to the Court from the Emergency Motion for Stay of Removal, the other submissions, the arguments of counsel, and the hearing held on the 28th of January, 2017,

1. The petitioners have a strong likelihood of success in establishing that the removal of the petitioner and others similarly situated violates their rights to Due Process and Equal Protection guaranteed by the United States Constitution;

1. There is imminent danger that, absent the stay of removal, there will be substantial and irreparable injury to refugees, visa-holders, and other individuals from nations subject to the January 27, 2017 Executive Order;

1. The issuance of the stay of removal will not injure the other parties interested in the proceeding;

1. It is appropriate and just that, pending completion of a hearing before the Court on the merits of the Petition, that the Respondents be enjoined and restrained from the commission of further acts and misconduct in violation of the Constitution as described in the Emergency Motion for Stay of Removal.

WHEREFORE, IT IS HEREBY ORDERED that the respondents, their officers, agents, servants, employees, attorneys, and all members and persons acting in concert or participation with them, from the date of this Order, are

ENJOINED AND RESTRAINED from, in any manner or by any means, removing individuals with refugee applications approved by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services as part of the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program, holders of valid immigrant and non-immigrant visas, and other individuals from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Libya, Somalia, and Yemen legally authorized to enter the United States.

IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that to assure compliance with the Court's order, the Court directs service of this Order upon the United States Marshal for the Eastern District of New York, and further directs the United States Marshals Service to take those actions deemed necessary to enforce the provisions and prohibitions set forth in this Order.

SO ORDERED.

Ann M. Donnelly
United States District Judge

Dated: Brooklyn, New York
January 28, 2017

SwedishEdith one word 'Crusade'.

Religious War.

Everything being said is about what needs to be true to justify what happens next.

Keep thinking this. It all becomes easier to understand.

Right now as I see it, Trump NEEDS protests to turn violent, and for riots to break out. This would give him an opportunity. The press and public will see it as him failing. Yet at his apparently most weak moment, he is potentially at his strongest. It would allow him to take control.

He also NEEDS a terrorist attack. This is my greatest fear. Will he try and provoke one, label something that isn't one as terrorist or god forbid manufacture a fake one.

The problem with all of this, is having the capacity ahead of things happen to put yourself outside your norms and expectations and into a place of imagining just how dark things can be. And then hope you are wrong.

The trouble is you run the risk of being dismissed as crazy because people don't WANT to believe. You have to talk to people at a pace, at which people will believe. Even if every newspaper screamed this on their front page weeks ago, few would have accepted it or believed it. Because no one had been brought along to trust what was said. They would be not ready. Many are still not. It shatters their safe worlds. 'Bad things only happen to people who somehow deserve it and not you'.

People by their nature don't want to see the worst. Not until it happens. In someways this says something good about humanity that they are blind and naïve and want to see that things will be ok and think it will. The few that see it, usually have learnt the hard way first.

I had a massive argument about this all last night with DH. I had to make the point very strongly about so much of this being what I had spent so much of my life trying to understand and study to understand the simple question: Why? He has been saying I have been 'hysterical' over it all and it all came to a big head because I refused to go to bed at the same time as him. He really thought I'd totally lost it. (My mental health history doesn't help) His nature is to trust the institutions to believe in democracy and to use its channels to protect it. Its admirable, but I knew that there is now a real danger this will not save America. Nor the rest of us by implication.

This morning when I told him everything that had happened over the last few hours and why I needed so badly to keep watching he finally got it. He finally saw how grim it might be too and how bad the situation has become.

My point is, the vast majority of people can not go down the rabbit warren until they are ready or they are forced to. Its like smashing a glass wall to step through the looking glass of despair. Why do it, unless you have to?

This is why most journalists would never be able to ask the right questions. They are not war journalists. Its not their speciality. They only see things in terms of institutional norms.

Men like Trump and Bannon are not good people. They are not doing with good intention. They have no remorse, no mercy, no compassion, no empathy and no pity. Humanity comes after other things. Humans are just another commodity. They are notable by their exception.

The thing is, most people are at heart good people. Its hard to remember that at times. Really hard. But humanity still manages to exist in the harsh most brutal and appalling situations. This is what I have always clinged to ultimately. Václav Havel puts it very well:

"Hope is not a feeling of certainty that everything ends well. Hope is just a feeling that life and work have a meaning.”

Snowflakes make avalanches.

Matthew Rosenberg @AllMattNYT
Customs agents at Dulles told lawyers they were ordered by "upper mgmt" to not provide info/access – that is direct violation of court order

Daniel Pink ‏*@DanielPink*

If true, it's illegal. If "upper mgmt" means the White House, it's a constitutional crisis.

Red - yes, agree. I was being rhetorical earlier.

It's wasn't so long ago that Aleppo was a bustling city full of life. They too could not have imagined what horrors were to befell them.

Facebook billionaire Peter Thiel a Kiwi citizen, owns Wanaka estate.

"Controversial American billionaire, Trump donor and venture capitalist Peter Thiel has taken New Zealand citizenship and quietly acquired a Wanaka lakefront estate."

Are these the 'citizens of nowhere' May was talking about? Those who can protect themselves from political and economic turmoil? Matthew Parris wrote about this the other day.

www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/may-must-champion-citizens-of-world-not-little-england/news-story/b2bb464e5df879bba774e2f98865567c

"Who did she mean? Someone in her circle assured me she meant non-doms, the super-rich for whom a yacht off Monaco can mean home. I don’t believe a word of it. Her thrust was not at ghastly Tory donors. The applause she sought was from smaller people: the part of our country that is wary of abroad, of internationalism, and of placing trust beyond our own borders; people for whom “charity begins at home” is chanted not to encourage kindness to friends, but harden hearts against strangers.

The Prime Minister may not be a Little Englander but “citizen of nowhere” was pitched for the approval of Little Englanders — and won it."

Wrt the rule of law in general in the US, and respect for the law..

The culture wars that went on during the 80s and 90s are now coming to a head.

Conspicuous among the casualties was respect for the law and for the Constitution - the Department of Justice and the Supreme Court as institutions saw their roles taken hostage by the different sides. Control of the Supreme Court was - and remains - key to imposing an agenda.

www.alternet.org/books/how-culture-wars-swallowed-american-political-and-intellectual-life-two-decades

www.pewforum.org/files/2006/11/culturewar-execsum.pdf

The institutions became degraded when unscrupulous politicians sought to use them to bypass the elected representatives, enabling them to shy away from legislation and the necessary debate associated with that.

"He also NEEDS a terrorist attack. This is my greatest fear. Will he try and provoke one, label something that isn't one as terrorist or god forbid manufacture a fake one "

I have wondered if an assassination will be arranged. The "wrong" race/religion will kill someone significant. Even writing that makes me feel I've entered crazy land but I can see it happening.

red I think part of the problem why people in the UK don't realise the seriousness of the situation is that it has been so long since we've seen dictatorships and political oppression in our neighbourhood.
Many who vaguely know about WW2, seem ignorant of the political buildup of fascist in the 1930s.

For most of my life, there was a USSR, a communist dictatorship controlling several conquered countries and hundreds of millions of citizens
I grew up seeing Greece, Spain, Portugal had fascist dictatorships.

After WW2, all of Europe realised the horror of what had happened over the previous 12 years.
Many were occupied, even more had whole cities reduced to rubble. Millions of ordinary people died, so most familes lost someone.

My parents were teens in the 1930s; my dad and other relatives fought in WW2. My uncle died at 18 and was still remembered in family gatherings in the 1970s.
I grew up around prefab buildings put up quickly to replace those bombed out and I still occasionally saw rubble & bombsites from WW2 that hadn't yet been cleared.

This kind of personal / family history has mostly disappeared.
Knowledge seems to have been swept from our national folk history by constant programming about Muslim terrorists / molestors and benefit cheats, interspersed with ads for must-have consumerist tat.

< ok, old gimmer rant is over >

I'm worried about terrorist attacks before the French or German elections

I'm confident the AfD in Germany won't move from 13% to major party status, but we need Merkel as a leading light in the liberal West. Her successors all look worthy, but not as capable and obviously without her experience at the top.

However, France has had a strong fascist minority and racial unrest since Algeria kicked them out in 1962, after a very long and horrific war of independence.

One of the candidates standing in the Stoke By-Election for the Monster Raving Loony Party

www.loonyparty.com/3613/5803/the-incredible-flying-brick-will-save-stoke/

His policies look, well, after the last few months... positively sane:

Abolish Gravity with immediate effect.
Make fishing a spectator sport by introducing piranha to the Trent.
Develop Stoke-on-Trent Civic Centre into an intergalactic space port.
Ensure that all European trains will be fuelled by Gravy

Petition against Trump state visit exceeds 600,000 signatures

If he still comes and is invited for a sleepover at Buck House, I hope they don't give him the room where Obama slept

• HM the Queen would be seriously displeased if he messes a bed at her place, not to mention Phil expressing his disgust

At 90+ they don't need that crap

gravy train and the princess and the pee, re written for 2017

@Swedish,

The same thought crossed my mind too about a needing a terrorist attack, whether fake or real.

Honestly it is just off the scale if that's what EGO HEAD needs to justify his existence.

But anyway, I know I am over thinking it. Of course I am.