Westministenders: Ding Ding Ding! All Aboard! Boris’s Brexit Bus gets going.

[RedToothBrush]

The Judges have Ruled.

They have restored parliamentary sovereignty to the people from the crown. Hard line Brexiteers don’t like it. This is how democracy looks though. Everyone gets a say, even people who you don’t agree with. Bloody Bremoaners. If irony wasn’t dead on 24th June, it was hung drawn and quartered on 24th Jan. I hope in time Gina Miller will get the recognition she deserves in history.

What does it actually mean for Brexit though? Can Brexit be thwarted by the decision?

Short Answer: No Brexit can not be stopped. The ‘Will of the People’ will be respected ultimately. (Though also worth stating the ‘Will of the People’ is not a fixed thing. The 23rd June vote was a mere snapshot of a moment in time. The Will of the People is ever changing and this should never be forgotten).

A majority of MPs have pledged to vote for a50. Whether the LDs, Greens, Labour Remainers and SNP oppose Brexit is ultimately irrelevant. Talks of ‘frustrating Brexit’ is nothing more than hot air from people frustrated they are not getting everything on their terms alone.

Why is the ruling important though? What next? What you should look out for? (Trying to keep this as brief as possible on immediate effect)

1. There is no reason (at this point) to suggest that May will miss her March 31st deadline.

2. The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill is scheduled to go through the HoC between Jan 31 and Feb 8. Two days of debate will be in the HoC on Tuesday (with parliament sitting until midnight) and Wednesday with the key vote on Wednesday. The following week on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will go to the committee and report stages and for the third reading (See this FT article Brexit bill likely to face biggest trials in House of Lords for details of what happens at what stage). That makes 5 days total and is significantly less than other important European decisions. It is being viewed as an attempt to gag parliament by many.

3. The opposition normally agree to common’s timetabling before making such announcements. Several Labour and Conservative MPs are calling for Labour to vote against the timetable. It is not clear normal procedure has been followed, on this occasion, however Corbyn has imposed a three line whip on it after a heated shadow Cabinet meeting. This seems to suggest Labour whips agreed timetable. A large scale rebellion and (more) shadow cabinet resignations could well be on the cards.

4. Lords could yet, get more time to debate the bill than Commons, due to government not setting debating time. That alone would be something of a scandal.

5. The government have conceded over the publication of a white paper and say it now will happen, however rumours are that the government are trying to delay its publication until AFTER the a50 debate has finished. This makes the whole thing a farce. Its not obvious what Tory Rebels will do under the circumstances. It is theoretically possible there may be enough for a government defeat, but that is a now an extreme possibility with Corbyn imposing a three line whip. (That in itself might embolden a few Tories though).

6. When MPs voted to support a50 in December this only passed due to an amendment requiring the government to produce a plan. Always worth remembering this important caveat. It will be omitted by a lot of media coming media coverage if MPs support any amendments or seek to obstruct a vote due to a lack of detail as a ‘betrayal’. It is not. It is a consistent request and a necessary part of scrutiny.

7. The Brexit Select Committee which is supposed to scrutinise the government just got more important. Its recommendations carry weight and will influence the decisions that MPs make.

8. Amendments to a50 law will be crucial. The SNP have suggested they want FIFTY. Most will just be rubbish, but they hopefully would have at least generate proper debate. This could be a worthwhile process regardless of how it might be framed, however the timetable makes that difficult if not impossible to do. Rather than frustrating things it could have been part of a positive process to help build consensus and tackle certain concerns.

9. Labour has been handed a chance to get out of the government blaming them for a bad deal. It gives them a chance to hold the government more accountable and get their teeth into things. It is their chance to throw away. They need to stand up and not roll over. Corbyn's Three Line Whip is exactly that. Now is the time to pester MPs over amendments. (Equally applies to Leavers concerned about Tory Brexit).

10. Chuka Umunna has suggested an amendment to give £350 million to the NHS. It would be an opportunity to draw some much needed battle lines about the future of the NHS and a chance to make ground to protect it which would be an important position for Labour. I don’t see it happening, but you can hope.

11. The danger for Labour is to join SNP in a ‘road block’ of amendments. They will need to be selective in their approach.

12. What Rebel Tories do next is important. These are both Leavers and Remainers and this should not be forgotten. It gives them a lot more power.

13. The Supreme Court ruled against the devolved assemblies. This has two effects. It might heighten the temptation and support for Independence. It might also force nationalists to work with their English peers where there is common ground. Thus unifying opposition in the United Kingdom.

14. The legal position is now established as the GFA only refers to NI’s place in the UK, not the EU. This leaves the door open for NI to choose Ireland and the EU. Similar rejection of the Sewell convention having legal effect, makes the case for a new Scottish Independence bid.

15. How 10) and 11) are handled is crucial to the country’s future. May needs to be more sensitive. Whilst there is no appetite for independence / reunification at present this may yet change as a result of Brexit. It does not necessarily weaken the nationalist’s hands in the long run. Amendments relating to assurance around devolution could still be a sticking point if other parties support. (I think fair chance they will in order to try and prevent break up of the UK. England & Wales dominated by Conservatives forever otherwise). It also put DUP in interesting position.

16. May is doing more shit stirring in NI saying the IRA needs to be investigated more and suggesting soldiers were ‘persecuted’. This is inflammatory stuff. If she carries on, don’t expect the GFA to last. At this point, I might be tempted to say, that she wants it to break so she can enforce Brexit and remove the Human Rights Act.

17. The issue of a50 reversibility has not gone away. The positions of the Labour Party and the Lib Dems would be vastly strengthened by reversibility. This is not to stop Brexit as such, but because it strengthens their demands to get a deal that they think is in the best interests of the UK because it would be potentially easier to reject a Tory Brexit. The legal case to try and get an ECJ referral is ongoing in Ireland and is important.

18. The possibility of a second referendum, has also not gone away gone away. If EU states have to agree to a deal and some put it to their citizens, that makes it more politically difficult for it not to be put to the British.

19. There is still a strong chance of more legal challenges to Brexit. There are lots of unresolved issues relating to rights which the Supreme Court did not resolve through the a50 challenge. This is for government to decide upon – and if it does not address those issues, then individuals will have no alternative to go through the courts to seek clarity on their positions. Most notably is positions of British Citizens abroad and EU citizen married or with children in UK.

20. Government has made a notable backtracking about the role of the rule of law and the authority of the courts. This is progress and perhaps an acknowledgement of how they handled it so poorly in December and how they can not act unopposed.

21. May’s speech last week was protective against this, so she can make the political point that she tried. She has in some ways protected herself against a Kipper backlash by actually proving it was not possible to carry out some of their proposals. This might actually be good in the long run for fighting the far right in the UK.

22. The Government Appeal was effectively totally unnecessary. Expect a FOI request to give someone a stick to beat the government with.

23. Don’t forget the Lords. They ultimately won’t oppose a50. It threatens their existence and would provoke a constitutional crisis which most will seek to prevent. Their job is to act in the national interest, to act for the best interests of the people, to uphold democracy and our constitutional framework. That means they can not ultimately block a50. They might insist on amendments though, especially if the Commons don’t do their job properly.

24. The Stoke and Copeland By-Elections are unlikely to be too affected by the ruling at this stage – as it is unchanged from Dec This might change though. If a50 going through parliament has been concluded by 23rd Feb, Remainers are most likely to be unhappy. If a50 bill looks like it is being ‘road blocked’ Leavers might get more enraged and motivated to turnout.

25. None of this means that Hard Brexit won’t happen. The EU still has the upper hand here. The deal we are seeking might not be possible. It does however mean that parliament rather than the government should have a more active role in proceedings.

26. Final point is that the ruling gives a chance of consensus in the National Interest and not just that of Hardline Leavers. The wording of the bill, perhaps doesn't. It looks like May’s Tory First Policy, is still full steam ahead. I thought it would change the tone of debate as the government would be forced to change tact. Its not looking likely.

Next stop on the Brexit –Aeroplane-- Bus; Trump's America.

That’s sure to be guaranteed torture to witness.

Merkel is the last adult left standing.

The Muslim ban is not a cock-up. If it was a cock-up, Saudi Arabia would be top of the list because of 9/11. It is totally conscious, while not alienating their true friends.

Now I see the suggestion that Farage becomes ambassador in a different light. I now think it was a deliberate signal that the special relationship means nothing to the current administration and they can do whatever they want to us.

Reminds me of the "Chechen" bombings in Moscow that were probably nothing of the kind.

"People by their nature don't want to see the worst. Not until it happens. In some ways this says something good about humanity that they are blind and naïve and want to see that things will be ok and think it will. "

Yes, I've had arguments with a couple of friends recently along these lines. They can't really answer me, just mutter about checks and balances

Another interesting thread

🗽
‏*@leahmcelrath*

I suspect it will not be long before members of our Natl Guard/military will be put in a position of deciding whether to fire upon citizens.

I pray I am wrong.

But Bannon et al WANT to bring domestic division to a point of heightened conflict.

It's a feature, not a bug.

With the #MuslimBan, Bannon et al chose to do something overtly unConstitutional that they knew would be a flash-point for the left.

They rushed this through on purpose, overriding objections and failing to coordinate with intelligence or immigration officials.

From their actions, we can infer the #MuslimBan has a purpose that suits their strategic goals and has nothing to do with national security.

A #MuslimBan is a perfect vehicle for them: it's a flashpoint for opposition from the left and a dog whistle for support from the right.

The #MuslimBan furthers domestic division: it makes many within the U.S. see protesters as aligned with who they perceive to be "the enemy."

The (good & righteous) response by the left to the #MuslimBan serves Bannon et al's goals.

Protesters are unknowingly "othering" themselves.

Like other ascendant authoritarian regimes, the Trump Admin WANTS an excuse to put down dissent.

And to do so violently.

Don't get me wrong:

We of good conscience have no choice but to protest and dissent.
Especially those of us with privilege to spend.

Dissent and protest are our duties and responsibilities as citizens.

Nonetheless, when I analyze the timing, content, and manner of this Exec Order, I cannot help but realize it has a purpose for the Admin.

The purpose has nothing to do with national security and everything to do w heightening domestic political division and increasing dissent.

Authoritarians cannot complete their ascendance until they have an opportunity to quash dissent with violence.

The violence used to quash dissent must be dramatic enough to serve as a deterrent for all meaningful future dissent.

Because the #MuslimBan is NOT the end game for this Administration.

They literally want to dismantle our republic as we know it. All of it.

"Lenin wanted to destroy the state, & that’s my goal too. I want to bring everything crashing down, & destroy all of today’s establishment."

The previous tweet is a quote from Steve Bannon, Trump's Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor and former Campaign Manager.

🗽 Retweeted Sarah Kendzior
As @sarahkendzior has documented, Trump himself has made statements eerily similar to Bannon's in the past: 🗽 added,

Sarah Kendzior @sarahkendzior
I explained what Trump and his team were really doing many times in vain hope that people would wake up and stop it thecorrespondent.com/5696/were-heading-into-dark-times-this-is-how-to-be-your-own-light-in-the-age-of-trump/1611114266432-e23ea1a6 …

🗽 Retweeted Kellyanne Conway
Trump's chief propagandist Kellyanne Conway has very recently mirrored this "shock to the system" mentality: 🗽 added,
Kellyanne Conway @KellyannePolls
Get used to it. @POTUS is a man of action and impact.
Promises made, promises kept.
Shock to the system.
And he's just getting started twitter.com/FoxNews/status/825352875094138880 …

🗽 Retweeted Jess
The SuperPAC "Committee to Defend the President" is airing ads basically inciting civil war to "defend" Trump: 🗽 added,

0:59
Jess @Jess4_RK
WHAT IN THE HELL DID I JUST WATCH???????????????????????????WHEN HAS A PRESIDENT EVER DONE THIS???! IM SCREAMING!!!!!!!!!!!!

In short, an excuse for a violent government response to domestic dissent is something Bannon et al WANT and are looking for.

If an opportunity doesn't arise organically (humans in large groups do stupid things sometimes), they will create one eventually.
I'm sorry.

Any US constitutional law people up who can help?
Is this coming to a head, and is Congress going to have to force him to abide by US law?

'Members of Congress have a duty to oversee the President's compliance with the law and Courts. He is rejecting both. Congress must act.

Rex W. Tillerson
‏*@realRWTillerson*
It is now incumbent upon @POTUS to work with lawmakers on his immigration Exec Order to clarify its parameters for immigration officials .'..
___

Those poor kids on the demonstrations, those poor kids.
It was a set up from the start.

@woman what was that about the kids.

The kids demonstrating in NY at all the airports, so worried that he's going to send in the feds and there will be bloodshed.

What was in swedish's post above, and red's much longer one a few pages back on how this is all extremely deliberate, at least domestically.

petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=171928LD

Spot the pattern. Set to percentage of voters.
Places with high Kipper support = low signature rate.
Places with a high liberal (with small l) = high signature rate.

Well isn't that just a thing. What a huge surprise.

You might be able to spot an MP or two who might not have as safe seat as they think from this map. Election data people should take note.

Interesting to see a good rate of signatures for David T C Davies, Liam Fox and Rees Moggy's constituencies.

I really must have a good look at that in the morning...

Interesting stuff there. Really interesting.

It looks a lot like the map for the 2nd referendum petition in June

Kaija

Rep. Don Beyer
‎‏‪*@RepDonBeyer*‬
We have a constitutional crisis today. Four Members of Congress asked CBP officials to enforce a federal court order and were turned away.
12:08 pm - 29 Jan 2017

Movie at bedtime is Trump-May "Gone With The Wind":

Woman, thanks for the explanation.

I'm beginning to expect Bannon's version of the Reichstag fire
Then Kristallnacht

I don't think there will be another referendum.

Brexit is Brexit.

Good on that woman who took the case.

So many people are unhappy about it all. Too much too soon. Nothing to tell us about the implications. huh.

The Senate - the final constitutional safeguard against dictatorship ?

The final protection in the US Constitution is the Senate, because even a minority can shut down the government, just like the GOP did to Obama

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/01/27/democrats-in-congress-can-block-trumps-agenda-if-they-want-to-heres-how/?tid=pmpop&utmm_term=.1598fd237ad5

The 48 Democrats in the Senate should block the appointment of Trumps's dreadful nominees - and then there are typically 1,000 other nominees to confirm for a new administration, so block each one.
They can block the passing of bills, like the GOP did.
A few Republicans might even join them sometimes

Obama tried reaching out to the GOP: They just took advantage and grew stronger
Time that Senate Democrats realised they are no longer facing a "normal" Republican party, or a normal POTUS like Reagan or either Bush, or even Nixon.
Time for some GOP senators to take back their party from the Breitbart fascists

This is fascism, by Trump and an organised movement which have taken over the GOP.
This fascism must be fought by all constitutional means.
So, use the final fallback against a demagogue
Use the power of the senate.

Trudeau condemns Mosque shooting in Quebec: 6 dead & 8 wounded

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38793071

medium.com/@yonatanzunger/trial-balloon-for-a-coup-e024990891d5#.cdka8vjpb
Trial balloon for a coup

Very good summary of everything. It also adds to the picture a worrying suggestion that something else in the golden showers document has happened... And that journalists should follow the money.

Also they are trying to wear out resistance. Resistance has to be a way of life now. This is not stopping. There is a danger of stuff there spreading here as we are in a weak state. Banks will try and ape things. Brexits timing couldn't be worse.

I see Starbucks have pledged to hire 10,000 refugees globally.

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08bzzp5/newsnight-27012017

I found this quite interesting - Newsnight from 27/1/17 - summary of Trump's first week. Only a week?!!

Thanks Red. Marking place for now.

Anyone going to the Downing St demo tonight? I'm going. Trying to think of a placard at the moment.

I'm going. I don't have the time or material to make a placard but will be there

#ShameTheresaAppeaser

I'm going too (and trying not to dwell on fact it's been organised by Owen Jones).

Fwiw my own thoughts on checks and balances are that they're largely symbolic: they work for mainstream politicians who respect them as an idea (and as an ideal), eg Jimmy Carter's peanut farm. However when you get someone like Trump who sees things solely in terms of what he wants then the system is gravely at risk: there are always work arounds for checks and balances, but it's only people like Trump who are prepared to really put them to the test and rub up as close as possible to the line (eg his failure to use blind trusts for his business interests).

Am feeling appalled that the radio news is focusing on the Muslim ban from a UK perspective, and not hearing anything about the National Security Council changes. Equally appalled at the appeasement being endorsed by people like Malcolm Rifkind.