Westministenders: Ding Ding Ding! All Aboard! Boris’s Brexit Bus gets going.

[RedToothBrush]

The Judges have Ruled.

They have restored parliamentary sovereignty to the people from the crown. Hard line Brexiteers don’t like it. This is how democracy looks though. Everyone gets a say, even people who you don’t agree with. Bloody Bremoaners. If irony wasn’t dead on 24th June, it was hung drawn and quartered on 24th Jan. I hope in time Gina Miller will get the recognition she deserves in history.

What does it actually mean for Brexit though? Can Brexit be thwarted by the decision?

Short Answer: No Brexit can not be stopped. The ‘Will of the People’ will be respected ultimately. (Though also worth stating the ‘Will of the People’ is not a fixed thing. The 23rd June vote was a mere snapshot of a moment in time. The Will of the People is ever changing and this should never be forgotten).

A majority of MPs have pledged to vote for a50. Whether the LDs, Greens, Labour Remainers and SNP oppose Brexit is ultimately irrelevant. Talks of ‘frustrating Brexit’ is nothing more than hot air from people frustrated they are not getting everything on their terms alone.

Why is the ruling important though? What next? What you should look out for? (Trying to keep this as brief as possible on immediate effect)

1. There is no reason (at this point) to suggest that May will miss her March 31st deadline.

2. The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill is scheduled to go through the HoC between Jan 31 and Feb 8. Two days of debate will be in the HoC on Tuesday (with parliament sitting until midnight) and Wednesday with the key vote on Wednesday. The following week on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will go to the committee and report stages and for the third reading (See this FT article Brexit bill likely to face biggest trials in House of Lords for details of what happens at what stage). That makes 5 days total and is significantly less than other important European decisions. It is being viewed as an attempt to gag parliament by many.

3. The opposition normally agree to common’s timetabling before making such announcements. Several Labour and Conservative MPs are calling for Labour to vote against the timetable. It is not clear normal procedure has been followed, on this occasion, however Corbyn has imposed a three line whip on it after a heated shadow Cabinet meeting. This seems to suggest Labour whips agreed timetable. A large scale rebellion and (more) shadow cabinet resignations could well be on the cards.

4. Lords could yet, get more time to debate the bill than Commons, due to government not setting debating time. That alone would be something of a scandal.

5. The government have conceded over the publication of a white paper and say it now will happen, however rumours are that the government are trying to delay its publication until AFTER the a50 debate has finished. This makes the whole thing a farce. Its not obvious what Tory Rebels will do under the circumstances. It is theoretically possible there may be enough for a government defeat, but that is a now an extreme possibility with Corbyn imposing a three line whip. (That in itself might embolden a few Tories though).

6. When MPs voted to support a50 in December this only passed due to an amendment requiring the government to produce a plan. Always worth remembering this important caveat. It will be omitted by a lot of media coming media coverage if MPs support any amendments or seek to obstruct a vote due to a lack of detail as a ‘betrayal’. It is not. It is a consistent request and a necessary part of scrutiny.

7. The Brexit Select Committee which is supposed to scrutinise the government just got more important. Its recommendations carry weight and will influence the decisions that MPs make.

8. Amendments to a50 law will be crucial. The SNP have suggested they want FIFTY. Most will just be rubbish, but they hopefully would have at least generate proper debate. This could be a worthwhile process regardless of how it might be framed, however the timetable makes that difficult if not impossible to do. Rather than frustrating things it could have been part of a positive process to help build consensus and tackle certain concerns.

9. Labour has been handed a chance to get out of the government blaming them for a bad deal. It gives them a chance to hold the government more accountable and get their teeth into things. It is their chance to throw away. They need to stand up and not roll over. Corbyn's Three Line Whip is exactly that. Now is the time to pester MPs over amendments. (Equally applies to Leavers concerned about Tory Brexit).

10. Chuka Umunna has suggested an amendment to give £350 million to the NHS. It would be an opportunity to draw some much needed battle lines about the future of the NHS and a chance to make ground to protect it which would be an important position for Labour. I don’t see it happening, but you can hope.

11. The danger for Labour is to join SNP in a ‘road block’ of amendments. They will need to be selective in their approach.

12. What Rebel Tories do next is important. These are both Leavers and Remainers and this should not be forgotten. It gives them a lot more power.

13. The Supreme Court ruled against the devolved assemblies. This has two effects. It might heighten the temptation and support for Independence. It might also force nationalists to work with their English peers where there is common ground. Thus unifying opposition in the United Kingdom.

14. The legal position is now established as the GFA only refers to NI’s place in the UK, not the EU. This leaves the door open for NI to choose Ireland and the EU. Similar rejection of the Sewell convention having legal effect, makes the case for a new Scottish Independence bid.

15. How 10) and 11) are handled is crucial to the country’s future. May needs to be more sensitive. Whilst there is no appetite for independence / reunification at present this may yet change as a result of Brexit. It does not necessarily weaken the nationalist’s hands in the long run. Amendments relating to assurance around devolution could still be a sticking point if other parties support. (I think fair chance they will in order to try and prevent break up of the UK. England & Wales dominated by Conservatives forever otherwise). It also put DUP in interesting position.

16. May is doing more shit stirring in NI saying the IRA needs to be investigated more and suggesting soldiers were ‘persecuted’. This is inflammatory stuff. If she carries on, don’t expect the GFA to last. At this point, I might be tempted to say, that she wants it to break so she can enforce Brexit and remove the Human Rights Act.

17. The issue of a50 reversibility has not gone away. The positions of the Labour Party and the Lib Dems would be vastly strengthened by reversibility. This is not to stop Brexit as such, but because it strengthens their demands to get a deal that they think is in the best interests of the UK because it would be potentially easier to reject a Tory Brexit. The legal case to try and get an ECJ referral is ongoing in Ireland and is important.

18. The possibility of a second referendum, has also not gone away gone away. If EU states have to agree to a deal and some put it to their citizens, that makes it more politically difficult for it not to be put to the British.

19. There is still a strong chance of more legal challenges to Brexit. There are lots of unresolved issues relating to rights which the Supreme Court did not resolve through the a50 challenge. This is for government to decide upon – and if it does not address those issues, then individuals will have no alternative to go through the courts to seek clarity on their positions. Most notably is positions of British Citizens abroad and EU citizen married or with children in UK.

20. Government has made a notable backtracking about the role of the rule of law and the authority of the courts. This is progress and perhaps an acknowledgement of how they handled it so poorly in December and how they can not act unopposed.

21. May’s speech last week was protective against this, so she can make the political point that she tried. She has in some ways protected herself against a Kipper backlash by actually proving it was not possible to carry out some of their proposals. This might actually be good in the long run for fighting the far right in the UK.

22. The Government Appeal was effectively totally unnecessary. Expect a FOI request to give someone a stick to beat the government with.

23. Don’t forget the Lords. They ultimately won’t oppose a50. It threatens their existence and would provoke a constitutional crisis which most will seek to prevent. Their job is to act in the national interest, to act for the best interests of the people, to uphold democracy and our constitutional framework. That means they can not ultimately block a50. They might insist on amendments though, especially if the Commons don’t do their job properly.

24. The Stoke and Copeland By-Elections are unlikely to be too affected by the ruling at this stage – as it is unchanged from Dec This might change though. If a50 going through parliament has been concluded by 23rd Feb, Remainers are most likely to be unhappy. If a50 bill looks like it is being ‘road blocked’ Leavers might get more enraged and motivated to turnout.

25. None of this means that Hard Brexit won’t happen. The EU still has the upper hand here. The deal we are seeking might not be possible. It does however mean that parliament rather than the government should have a more active role in proceedings.

26. Final point is that the ruling gives a chance of consensus in the National Interest and not just that of Hardline Leavers. The wording of the bill, perhaps doesn't. It looks like May’s Tory First Policy, is still full steam ahead. I thought it would change the tone of debate as the government would be forced to change tact. Its not looking likely.

Next stop on the Brexit –Aeroplane-- Bus; Trump's America.

That’s sure to be guaranteed torture to witness.

On the Turkish visit.
Background from Amnesty International:

80,000 arrested.
That's the population of Bath.

On 15 July 2016, a faction within Turkey’s military attempted to overthrow the government. The coup failed and in the following days, weeks and months the Turkish government embarked on a crackdown of exceptional proportions, targeting people it accuses of being linked to Fethullah Gülen – a Turkish cleric in exile in the US, who the government accuse of masterminding the coup.
(sounds familiar?)

The Turkish president declared a three-month state of emergency and suspension of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) for the duration – allowing him to bypass parliament when creating new laws or restricting freedoms and rights. President Erdoğan refused to rule out the use of the death penalty.

Tortured, raped and starved
More than 10,000 people have been detained since the attempted coup. We have evidence that many of those people are being subjected to torture, beatings, rape and sexual abuse.

We spoke to lawyers, doctors and detention facility staff who said some detainees were being held in unofficial locations such as sports centres and even a stable. Some detainees, including at least three judges, were held in the corridors of courthouses.

Police have been holding detainees in stress positions, denying them food, water and medical treatment, verbally abusing them and subjecting them to beatings and torture, including rape and sexual assault.

Two lawyers in Ankara told us that detainees said they witnessed senior military officers in detention being raped with a truncheon or finger by police officers.
Journalists arrested
Up to 70,000 people from the army, education sector, legal sector and civil service have been suspended or dismissed from their jobs.

The scale of these sackings suggests a country-wide witch-hunt.

The Turkish authorities also targeted media outlets and journalists, continuing their crackdown on freedom of expression. More than 20 news websites have been blocked, 42 journalists have arrest warrants out against them, and 25 media outlets have had their licenses revoked.
www.amnesty.org.uk/turkey-coup-crackdown-human-rights

What trade deals can justify this visit to Turkey?

We must ask those Leavers who voted that way because they didn't want Turkey in the EU, whether they are happy to 'suck it up'?

If ever there was a reason for staying in the EU, it was so we didn't have to be in the same group as creatures like Erdogan, who is also proposing to relieve Turks of the burden of elections.
Who is controlling her?

The Turkish situation has deteriorated since the Referendum, since the botched coup. So why on earth is May even thinking about Turkey. Still, if she loses the Leaver vote, they might shut up with their inane, "it's democracy" mantra.

Apart from Chamberlain, Thatcher and the english aristocracy I can think of no other examples of such overt alliances with fascistic regimes.
Unpresidented again.

I'm puzzled about this Turkey visit. It's being mentioned widely as having a trade element. The BBC say "A new trading relationship with Turkey following the UK's exit from the European Union would form part of discussions" www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38779669

I was under the impression that Turkey being in a customs union with the the EU means that the EU determines Turkey's trading arrangements with the rest of the world. Isn't that the argument against the UK being in a customs union with the EU - that we wouldn't be able to negotiate our own agreements?

If that's the case then how can Turkey enter into 'a new trading relationship' with the UK? Is it just a case of us buying their agricultural produce - which is apparently outside their customs union agreement?

Turkey, trade
How about where Turkey is located and the hand holding with the orange one.

It's not me suggesting it's to do with a trade deal!

I'm just surprised that it seems to be reported everywhere as that, without anybody commenting on the impossibility of it. It's made me wonder whether it's my understanding of the nature of customs unions that's at fault.

I know tuckers, it's not you!
Just we need to think why is it being reported like that.

I'm confused. Why is it OK for Merkel to be doing deals with Turkey to manage the flow of migrants in and out of the EU in exchange for EU access concessions but not OK for TM to visit Turkey?

I have a British friend who married an Iranian whilst living in California. I believe she may now be naturalised rather than still Iranian but I'm not 100% sure. We went to their wedding. They had family and friends who had travelled from all over the world to be there. (Literally all over the world including from Iran).

Trump just destroyed her family in effect.

If she isn't naturalised they are going to have a problem when her work visa is up for renewal.

He would have no other option but to return to the UK and hope he could get a well enough paying job quickly enough and get through the home office before her visa ran out or she ended up deported.

If he's not naturalised they may still have a problem if they leave the country on holiday as they went to Iran on holiday a couple of years ago and visited family. He might end up being prevented from re-entering the us. She also has family in Canada who are likely to have recently visited Iran.

They had a lot of friends who were in a similar position.

I hope to god none of them get caught up in this. I sadly expect they will be in some way.

They have commented on fb about it supposed to be the land of the free but that's it. I hope they are carefully looking at the situation and working out if it has wider implications for them. I hope the penny has dropped.

Not good. Not good at all.

But this is the other side of the Iranian coin.

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/04/british-iranian-woman-nazanin-zaghari-ratcliffe-jailed-tehran-appeals-court

Interesting perspective piece on EU-Turkish relations.

eulogos.blogactiv.eu/2017/01/25/the-eu-turkey-strange-relationship-forced-but-necessary/

The game seems to be to find enough economic reasons to not vote through a50, when the real reasons are those of morality, national security and democracy.
Economic reasons never worked against Hitler, in fact the opposite.

Are you seriously suggesting that leaving the EU is immoral

National security is also not 'at risk' purely as a result of leaving the EU, and why is it 'undemocratic'?

I thought the possibility of the Turkish entering the EU and therefore being able to come here was one of the major problems which is why we needed out?

I know that the imminent join up was anything but imminent btw, but surely if you're anti Turkish immigrants you're anti them regardless of whether they come via EU or a trade deal agreement.

I'm confused. Why is it OK for Merkel to be doing deals with Turkey to manage the flow of migrants in and out of the EU in exchange for EU access concessions but not OK for TM to visit Turkey?

Me too howabout, also confused as to why TM is being touted as 'legitimising facism' and 'toadying up to Trump' etc due to her accepting his invitation to visit - yet Merkel apparently making it known that she is 'making herself available at short notice' to see Trump is totes fine.

Compare and contrast Merkel's and May's statements following his election and you might be a little less befuddled.

Why not look for May's statements about Trump from the time before he was elected? Then look to Trump to see whether he has changed in any way. Then ask yourself why it is NOT toadying?

I'm sorry other side of the Iranian coin?!

Wtaf?

Are you saying trump is justified because of stories like that because Iran is bad?

Can you clarify EXACTLY what you are saying?

mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/opinion/trumps-immigration-ban-is-illegal.html?referer=
Trump’s Immigration Ban Is Illegal

President Trump signed an executive order on Friday that purports to bar for at least 90 days almost all permanent immigration from seven majority-Muslim countries, including Syria and Iraq, and asserts the power to extend the ban indefinitely.

But the order is illegal. More than 50 years ago, Congress outlawed such discrimination against immigrants based on national origin.

howabout
Interesting article, and until Trump, Bannon, Le Pen and Banks made it so personal I would have agreed to Real Politik approach to the role of Turkey in Europe.

Are you seriously suggesting that leaving the EU is immoral semi permanent
I'm suggesting that the way we are being rail roaded into it is.

Merkel called him out over his misogyny and racism.
Merkel has been desperately trying to mitigate the weaponised refugees courtesy of Putin. In this de stabilising of Europe, Merkel has had no choice but to bribe Turkey to be gate keepers.

If the extreme right didn't have such a terrifying grip on western democracies, even 4 million refugees could have been accommodated across a population of 500 million, if the will was there.

Now that the extreme right is in such an imminently or already powerful position, we have only one choice, whether to face it down or not, and that includes forgoing Turkey's role as prison guard or gate keeper or whatever. If the will was there in Europe these humans could and would be met with humanity. Look at all the work done by Brits and French in Calais. Look at the refugee welcome movement.

Putin is providing the challenge to liberal democracy. Collusion always supports the oppressor.

In real life, I'm probably wrong, but just in my heart, how can it possibly be right to collaborate with these people knowing what we do. Wouldn't people who hated fascism in the 1930s have spoken out against collaborating with people like Trump and Erdogan?

Seems difficult to locate a moral compass these days.

So Trump's executive order highly challengeable in court. Could put him in breach of his path to uphold the Constitution.

This is going to get MESSY

In fact lawsuit has already been launched.

Jane Caro @janecaro
Hey America, awesome move. 1.5 million of you killed by guns since 1968 versus 5 killed by refugees, but you guys ban.....refugees!

Says it all.

Talking about May's visit to Turkey to do a trade deal, with DH, he said it was obvious what we could export to them. Torture equipment. Seriously, we already export plenty, and needless to say, we don't have many moral scruples when exporting to regimes which use Torture.

Action 11, follow Madeline Allbright's lead and have UK mass registration as EU citizens or Moslems.
One of the modest but successful poll tax actions, was to pay it in low denomination coins at council offices.
Where there's a will......