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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
14
Peregrina · 20/01/2017 23:45

It [the EU] is important for security issues. With the threats we face it’s not the time for less co-operation

One of the few sensible things May has said, and our security intelligence is probably one of our few bargaining chips.

France has had a bit of an on/off relationship with NATO - I think they are back in now? If Trump did pull out of NATO I could see the UK joining an EU army.

Lico · 20/01/2017 23:45

Red; plan G.
Apologies , could not help looking up De Gaulle famous quotes ; some are quite good , on treaties, patriotism , politicians:

www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/490153.Charles_de_Gaulle

whatwouldrondo · 20/01/2017 23:52

I was avoiding all sources of media coverage of Trump's inaugeration for the sake of my mental health. I have learnt that trauma is best absorbed gradually. Listening to Little Women on Radio 4 seemed a good way to be reminded that America was and is great in many ways. Unfortunately I didn't turn of the radio fast enough and got sucked in to the horror that is JRM on Any Questions. www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b088jj6j#play

If you are really masochistic you can hear it all go pear shaped from 36.00 when someone asks when Brexit Britain can expect to see a positive change to people's lives. In brief first we have JRM calling someone a traitor for daring to point out that they had booed his answer that it was June 24th because the people of the UK had "got their country back" and it was now "UK first" because 48% of the population did not have a voice (51% where the programme was being broadcast from). Then Diane Abbot saying that Labour respected the vote and were supporting the triggering of Article 50 but that the way that TM was approaching Brexit, elevating immigration over economic good, meant that there would be no improvement in people's lives anytime soon Then when it was pointed out that the tendency to question someone's patriotism when they expressed a different opinion was a worrying development on both sides of the Atlantic JRM 's response that anyone booing their own country was not a patriot Confused Angry

I was wondering who JRM reminded me of, and then realised it was Flashman en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Flashman

HashiAsLarry · 20/01/2017 23:53

CDG has some great quotes attributed to him. I bet they sound even better in French says the woman who has very limited language skills other than English

whatwouldrondo · 20/01/2017 23:54

Have caught Trump's speech now, grandiosity unleashed..... I am now betting on his mental health being his downfall.....

whatwouldrondo · 20/01/2017 23:58

Have lined up some therapy at the American Embassy tomorrow at 12.....

HashiAsLarry · 20/01/2017 23:59

JRM 's response that anyone booing their own country was not a patriot
Its horrendous isn't it? It's now not ok to disagree with the view of current leader.

It's easy to solve. If the will of the people is so paramount to how we do things now, to the point where if you're on the losing side tries not to kill people who use terms like that when talking about people lives you need to put up and shut up then there's no point in parliament at all. Lets have the civil service deal with the mundane and put everything to referendum.

Though that would put a lot of rich elitists out of money.

WifeofDarth · 21/01/2017 00:03

ron be prepared for a long queue.
So that word 'traitor' being bandied about again? I thought it had been relagated to the history books. Just makes me think of the tudors and heads on spikes.

Lico · 21/01/2017 00:05

Peregrina. Yes , back since April 2009 but insists on being independent somehow. In 2014 France was the third financial contributor to Nato; First wasUS, second was Germany, third was France, Fourth was UK

Source:
www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/politique-etrangere-de-la-france/defense-et-securite/la-france-et-l-otan/

whatwouldrondo · 21/01/2017 00:18

So much of the 16th century is in vogue now, heads on spikes, Henry VIII clauses. JRM I suspect likes to cherrypick his history though, it really did not get better than mid 19th C with an empire on the rise but then that was that golden era before the war (first) when you could grow up in the security of a grand suite of rooms in Downton Abbey with one's Nanny.......

He denied all knowledge of Kim Kardashian on QT, I would love to have no knowledge of Kim Kardashian but it would be quite a feat to isolate yourself to that extent from real 21st century life....

BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 00:19

Democratic process - 3 separate issues:

  1. Legitimacy of a GE

  2. Continuing to oppose policies of an elected leader

  3. Impeachment / removal of an elected leader

  4. The elections of May (by Tory Party) & Trump (by US electoral college) were both valid, because they were elected under the existing rules of the UK and USA.
    The US has a history of vote supression in poor / African American areas, but that has never invalidated a GE yet.
    Even if Russian hacking were to be proved, there is no constitutional mechanism to make an election null & void, or have a rerun.

  5. Democracy does NOT mean shutting up after an election
    The frequent demand "suck it up, we won" is not democracy;
    It is trying to stifle democracy

Evryone is fully entitled to campaign against implementation of policies, even if they were in an election manifesto
That includes booing, slow handclaps, posters, demonstrations, social media, full use of all available legal challenges.
This is normal politics and has been done before with controversial topics e.g. welfare cuts or foreign wars

  1. An elected leader can be legally removed by a simple vote by MPs (UK) or via a complicated process of impeachment by Congress (US)

Hacking the Democrats is the 21st century equivalent of Nixon's 1970s bugging them

In the early 1970s, impeachment proceedings were started against President Nixon for "high crimes & misdemeanours".

There were some party political allegations made against him e.g. Vietnam bombing, but the concrete "high crime / misdemeanour" that nailed him was covering up after his plumbers (dirty tricks unit) bugged the Democrats in Watergate. iirc, there was no proof he has ordered the original bugging itself

When the Watergate allegations were first made, almost all Republicans sided with Nixon. After many months, public outrage grew so high that most turned against him.
So, Nixon eventually resigned, to avoid certain impeachment.

Unlike with Nixon, a significant section of the Republican party have always opposed Trump and would seize the chance to remove him.

Lico · 21/01/2017 00:20

Hash,
Yes thanks to Maths and other posters on this thread, I started reading a bit more about De Gaulle.
Current political issues such as Brexit, Russia Us are reminiscent of his time.

HashiAsLarry · 21/01/2017 00:41

lico I feel I should do the same

bigchoc you were a great help to me a long long time ago on the 5:2 threads, and in my commisseratory/celebratory mood tonight I just want to say its great to see you apply the same logic across everything!

Lico · 21/01/2017 01:07

I think that May is also very concerned about Defence. The UK is already part of 'some EU army' , bilateral agreement due to financial constraints. If Nato is dismantled , she will have to join an EU army.
Aaron Banks will love this!

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/uk-france-pool-defense-assets-share-costs.html?client=safari

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/8104258/Anglo-French-military-force-makes-perfect-sense-Liam-Fox.html

BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 05:26

< waves to Hash >

Moggy needs to give his head a shrink and realise that booing him does not equal booing the country.
Booing politicans is a valuable British tradition, along with slow handclaps or bleats of "hear, hear"

UK military power__
Can provide our neighbours with intelligence, training and support against terrorists.
However, won't be serious protection against Russia - only the US can stand up to them.

Reality check
The US Navy has 440 ships in active service or reserve, 70 more being built.
The Royal Navy has 19 surface warships and 11 submarines - but it does have 40 Admirals and 260 Captains
Must get crowded on the bridge Hmm

Maybe shoot that excess top brass at enemy ships instead ?
From 2018, budget cuts would mean that all RN ships have no anti-ship missiles (range about 80 miles), just naval guns (range 17 miles).
Hence, any navy with missiles (that's 29 navies) would be able to sink the RN at long distance before it can fire a shot Shock
Stupidest savings ever. The RN would be a showboat fleet, not one to send to actual war.

So, don't burn any bridges wrt European cooperation, because military support is not just one way:

the Royal Navy might yet need the support of European navies in the near future - the US won't always be the cavalry.

TheElementsSong · 21/01/2017 07:29

JRM has only articulated what many Leavers have been saying all along
(about Remainers, patriotism and traitors). Similarly the whole Will of the People thing being parroted by almost all our politicians.

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 08:14

removal of an elected leader
Section 25 of constitution on grounds of health

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 09:05

you need to put up and shut up then there's no point in parliament at all. Lets have the civil service deal with the mundane and put everything to referendum.

I have thought the same myself. It was the response I was going to give to my MP when I got another 'the people have spoken' reply. I have been thwarted - Nicola Blackwood has stopped replying.

Re Watergate - The news about this started breaking the the foreign press long, long before they started to report it in the UK press. I remember reading about it in an American newspaper printed for ex-pats in Italy about six months before there was even a peep about it in our Press. So read the Foreign press, folks - even if you don't read other languages, there are plenty of English language ones out there.

SemiPermanent · 21/01/2017 09:05

Swedish: I wonder why she would do this?
Perhaps if there is no longer NATO, then full speed ahead for a European army!😄
De Gaulle did not care too much for NATO either! It seems that the spectres of the post WW2 are coming back to hunt us!!

Don't know if you're joking or not, but NATO is invaluable.
One for all, all for one at its core - individual countries protected by each other - America as the biggest military power, part of it.

By contrast, what do you actually think a European army would look like?
Seriously?

Also, NATO is land, sea & air resourced - do you want an EU airforce & navy too?
How would that work out?

Naive & ridiculous.

Kaija · 21/01/2017 09:07

Not just Bane from Batman: he also plagiarised Bee Movie.

General feeling seems to be that speech is Steve Bannon's work. Is he doing this to amuse himself, or is this quite a clever device for creating resonance by peppering Trump's speeches with subliminal references from popular culture?

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day
Peregrina · 21/01/2017 09:10

The Bee Movie Grin, Grin . Almost unbelievable.

SemiPermanent · 21/01/2017 09:14

Joining an 'EU army' (even if we'd stayed in the EU) is a terrible prospect.

Working in close collaboration with other EU countries has been going on for years, across all services, and this works fine.

One entity, however, is not a Good Thing.

And it is having the USA as our 'big brother' in NATO which gives NATO its bollocks.

Retaining NATO should be a priority to TM when she meets Trump - as she has said it will be.
Thank goodness.

Kaija · 21/01/2017 09:22

SemiPermanent, nobody here wants NATO to be dismantled, but Trump is threatening it, which might make an EU army a lot more likely. Yet leavers seem to be lining up behind Trump. You see the irony.

A bit like the irony of leavers putting all their hope in Trump to put the UK at the front of the queue for a trade deal, even while he talks about protection and "buy American, hire American".

TheElementsSong · 21/01/2017 09:26

You Just Have To Believe.

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