Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

[RedToothBrush]

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

Surely can't mean starting from scratch to get access to any hubs. Surely agreements to the main airports would remain ?

Who knows?

Not sure BigChoc. Seems to suggest starting from scratch to me though.

Now that we have the ruling from the Courts, the more it goes, the more I think we will just end up with free trade with the eu, free movement of people and paying a hell of a lot of money for that.
Swiss or Norwegian type of agreement (but not one of those, it will be one created ESPECIALLY for the Britain) which will give the impression that we have something better.

I think the above is what many "soft leavers" and "reluctant remainers" were hoping for all along.
Most of the benefits of the EU, but at a slight arms length. Yes more expensive but less risk of being dragged along into a federalised Europe.
I would put myself in the reluctant remainer category and will be gratefully relieved if this ends up being the fudge we arrive at.

Flintshire and Cheshire West, both areas where a large proportion of the Airbus wing factory in Broughton live, voted Leave. Flintshire by a fairly wide margin (48,930 Leave, 37,867 Remain), Cheshire West by a much smaller margin.

Of course, the workforce at Broughton is only just over 5,000, so their votes would be a small proportion of those cast in the two areas in the referendum.

Some may well have voted Leave, thinking along the lines that the UK Government would never let anything happen to the plant. Hm, well, the Government might be convinced it can get a favourable deal for aerospace, on the sector-by-sector arrangements it seems to think it can secure or it might be prepared to throw Broughton and the other sites under the proverbial bus, as there are fewer than 15,000 workers all told. Or it might not have any say in the matter in the end.

Some Tory doofus thought it would be possible to develop a full aircraft industry in the UK. Well if it were possible, why haven't we done it before? What was to stop us? Certainly not the EU.

Actually, there is more of an aerospace industry than just Airbus in the UK, but mainstream aircraft production now takes place on a continental and intercontinental level.

Yep Patty - DB who lives in the area still felt more sick than I did. That they could actually potentially wreck their livelihoods for such vague notions as 'putting the Great back into Britain'. (When it never lost it, being a geographical term.)

NHS hands over patient records to home office for immigration crackdown

Wonder if this was in any manifesto Gloria? Medics and teachers are being co opted into being border police and parent police.

David Lammy in Independent.
^I am increasingly finding that what a lot of MPs are saying to me in private on the issue of Brexit – and, for that matter, journalists who work for pro-Brexit media organisations – is all too often diametrically opposed to the lines they take in public.

There is something fundamentally un-British about all of this, almost McCarthyite in its insidiousness, which we need to recognise for what it is and fight with everything we have. “Cuck”, “snowflake” and the ridiculous notion of “alternative facts” are all part of the same process of silencing critics and shouting down anybody who has the temerity to disagree with you^.

Can't say I'm surprised by that.

They all know it's going to be a disaster. Such a joke.

The Chilcott Report II: the Brexit Debacle will not be kind to all the people who saw disaster looming and did not speak out.

There's a collective pusillanimity that has overcome the country and far too many feel they must follow the mob.

The pendulum of history will swing against the Brexiteers far sooner than anyone now imagines, and when it does everyone in public life who failed to stand up will have to account for themselves.

I suspect that, as after WWII de Gaulle announced everyone had been in the resistance, in retrospect everyone will be closet Remainers.

I think I have already said this, but I always wondered why the Germans allowed Nazism to happen. I now begin to know, and partly understand. They would be like me, not being sure whether things were as bad as they feared or what they could do. But, in 30 years time I don't want to tell my grandchildren that I sat back when I thought the country was going to be severely damaged and did nothing.

There are some figures who will have real difficulty in pretending they were closet Remainers - Gove, Johnson, Leasdom, Fox, Davis, Redwood, Gisela Stuart, and of course Farage. May might just try it, but I doubt whether she will be believed.

And the holocaust didn't happen anyway, apparently.

It's not the end of the world yet, but if feels like the end of my world if you know what I mean.

Something is truly rotten at the heart of this country now, and a few tories and ukips have fucked it up for US, France, fuck knows where else. Brexit, their racism, lies, misogyny and their murder of Jo Cox made the unspeakable and undoable possible.

It's been a lesson in terror, anyway.

I've lived through dangerous times and in some dangerous places, and the fear and actual threat right here and now is visceral.

I've said the same. I have much more sympathy for Germany now I see how easy it is to brainwash even intelligent people with hokum.

Those who are out and proud can't fudge the issue in parenthesis. But there are many fence-sitters, and many erstwhile Remain MPs who have chosen to follow the flock (off a cliff). Justine Greening I'm looking at you.

That was to Peregrina.

Fillon involved in a financial scandal

Who'll benefit - Le Pen or Macron?

It's a lot of rubbish - F Fillon is perfectly permitted to employ his wife and, judging from his website and speeches, she provides a lot of ideas.

Macron's wife is far and away more scandalous than Penelooe Fillon.

peregrina I sometimes hear my parents say things they've clearly read from Murdoch or someone similar and think I'm sure I've heard that before, oh yeah, History A Level. The one thing they could never teach was how so many decent folk let this happen. All I can think is now I'm one of the decent folk and I need to do something. I can't think what that is beyond what the decent German folk probably did. And its a terrifying thought.

I'd assume Le Pen is more scandalous than either. Her supporters won't care but will use any others' scandals to justify their vote.

The immigrants Theresa May favours are white and speak English as a first language.

Remains to be seen whether she will embrace white, English-speaking Irish in the numbers they have traditionally been represented in the immigrant tally..

Yes indeed, Woman12345, I sincerely hope Sturgeon, O'Neill and Merkel are engaged in discussions.

Another history lesson from Ireland; not taught on the mainland:
blog.nationalarchives.gov.uk/blog/irish-indentured-labour-in-the-caribbean/
Whilst doing research for the ‘Caribbean through a lens‘ user participation project, a chance phone call from a community group in Birmingham led to the uncovering of a remarkable hidden history of Irish servants or indentured labour being employed on English owned plantations in the Caribbean. At The National Archives, we have unique documentation that demonstrates the sale of indentured labour before, during and after the English Civil War of the 17th century
We many have 'forgotten' but.....................

New Yorker article which I can't find wrote to the effect that Trump has to be re elected in 4 years whereas Brexit is permanent. Who would be an ally now?

All depends on tory numbers, here:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/24/jeremy-corbyn-nicola-sturgeon-plot-undermine-theresa-mays-plans/
^Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon are plotting to undermine Theresa May's plan for a clean Brexit as the Government insisted there will be "no going back" on the vote to Leave despite a Supreme Court ruling.
Mr Corbyn, the Labour leader, is calling for full access to the Single Market after Brexit and will table legislation demanding that the terms of any final deal are sent back to Brussels if Parliament reject them.
The SNP said that it is prepared to table 50 amendments, including a proposal to block Brexit entirely, while the Liberal Democrats will seek a second referendum and oppose triggering Article 50.
A dozen pro-European Conservative MPs are also prepared to join forces with Labour and the SNP in an attempt to force the Government to formally set out its negotiating strategy^

And Daily Fail leading campaign against Supreme court lawyers and Gina Miller. Photographs and threats in today's edition. Jo Brand had a good suggestion on how to deal with this sort of thing.
Incitement.

Numbers in Independent, though no cons apart from Clarke listed.
God preserve them.

Labour

Neil Coyle - Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Geraint Davies - Swansea West (voted leave)

Thangam Debbonaire - Bristol West

Helen Hayes - Dulwich and West Norwood

Peter Kyle - Hove

David Lammy - Tottenham

Tulip Siddiq - Hampstead and Kilburn

Owen Smith - Pontypridd (voted leave)

Catherine West - Hornsey and Wood Green

Daniel Zeichner - Cambridge

Liberal Democrat

Tom Brake - Carshalton and Wallington (voted leave)

Alistair Carmichael - Orkney and Shetland

Nick Clegg - Sheffield Hallam

Tim Farron - Westmorland and Lonsdale

Sarah Olney - Richmond Park and North Kingston

Mark Williams - Ceredigion

Green

Caroline Lucas - Brighton Pavilion

Scottish National Party

Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh - Ochil and South Perthshire

Richard Arkless - Dumfries and Galloway

Hannah Bardell - Livingston

Mhari Black - Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Ian Blackford - Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Kirsty Blackman - Aberdeen North

Philip Boswell - Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Deidre Brock - Edinburgh North and Leith

Alan Brown - Kilmarnock and Loudoun

Lisa Cameron - East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

Douglas Chapman - Dunfermline and West Fife

Joanna Cherry - Edinburgh South West

Ronnie Cowan - Inverclyde

Angela Crawley - Lanark and Hamilton East

Martyn Day - Linlithgow and East Falkirk

Martin Docherty - West Dunbartonshire

Stuart Donaldson - West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Marion Fellows - Motherwell and Wishaw

Margaret Ferrier - Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Stephen Gethins - North East Fife

Patricia Gibson - North Ayrshire and Arran

Patrick Grady - Glasgow North

Peter Grant - Glenrothes

Neil Gray - Airdrie and Shotts

Drew Hendry - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

Stewart Hosie - Dundee East

George Kerevan - East Lothian

Calum Kerr - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

Chris Law - Dundee West

Angus MacNeil - Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Callum McCraig - Aberdeen South

Stewart McDonald - Glasgow South

Stuart McDonald - Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

Anne McLaughlin - Glasgow North East

John McNally - Falkirk

Carol Monaghan - Glasgow North West

Paul Monaghan - Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Roger Mullin - Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Gavin Newlands - Paisley and Renfrewshire North

John Nicolson - East Dunbartonshire

Brendan O'Hara - Argyll and Bute

Kirsten Oswald - East Renfrewshire

Steven Paterson - Stirling

Alex Salmond - Gordon

Tommy Sheppard - Edinburgh East

Christopher Stephens - Glasgow South West

Alison Thewliss - Glasgow Central

Owen Thompson - Midlothian

Michael Weir - Angus

Elidh Whiteford - Banff and Buchan

Philippa Whitford - Central Ayrshire

Corri Wilson - Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Pete Wishart - Perth and North Perthshire

Social Democratic and Labour Party (Northern Ireland)

Mark Durkan - Foyle

Alasdair McDonnell (South Belfast

Margaret Ritchie - South Down

Don't see Ian Murray (Labour, somewhere in Edinburgh) on that list: I believe he is also going to vote against the Labour whip.