Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
14
Peregrina · 24/01/2017 15:18

I wouldn't really call her aggression, tactics. As it happens the rule book has been written in a way which doesn't completely go against her but it was a gamble.

TM is, gradually, explaining to deluded Leavers that they will only get Brexit within a framework. But her actions ensure other people take the flak for highlighting the rules.

I am not sure about the first sentence. It's not the way she works. As Home Sec she had 50,000 students booted out, essentially on trumped up charges, and gambled on them not being able to take action. She lost, but largely got away with it because of a complicit press.
Second sentence, yes, she will always try to get someone else to take the flak. She's got a clarification of the law, which is good, but it would have been so much better if she could have said that she sought the appeal because she felt the law needed to be clarified.

How will the tabloids spin it? I expect they realise they went too far last time. Leaver threads seem to be mixed on this.

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 15:20

<a class="break-all" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-38731306?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-38723261&link_location=live-reporting-story" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-38731306?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-38723261&link_location=live-reporting-story
Airbus warns over Brexit free movement

"We are entering a dangerous phase" if Airbus cannot seamlessly move people and products around the European Union, a senior executive has warned.

Chief operating officer Tom Williams told MPs that Washington would be "delighted" if that happened.

Giving evidence to the Commons Treasury Select Committee, he added that the US would make decisions based on the benefits to US rival Boeing.

OP posts:
Bobochic · 24/01/2017 15:24

I don't think that TM is DT. She is a tactician rather than an autocrat, albeit a tactician who is not afraid of very aggressive tactics that leave it to others to defend themselves or lose out. She cares for no one, that's for sure. Any talk of looking out for victims of injustice is pure PR.

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 15:25

James Ball ‏*@jamesrbuk*
Short thread (sorry) tackling something that seems to piss off a lot of people here: Why doesn't the British press use the word "lie" much?
TL;dr, it's due to UK libel law. It's defamatory to say some lied, and if their career depends on honesty (many do) they can show damage
Proving someone lied means not only proving what they said was untrue, but that they knew that at the time of speaking. V v hard to do.
Libel reform makes chances of defending it better. But much easier to say "spoke falsely", "claimed untruthfully", etc: provable!
So yes, looks strange to readers and as if media is unwilling to call it right, but it’s got a sort-of-good reason to it.

OP posts:
Peregrina · 24/01/2017 15:28

the more I think we will just end up with free trade with the eu, free movement of people and paying a hell of a lot of money for that. Swiss or Norwegian type of agreement (but not one of those, it will be one created ESPECIALLY for the Britain) which will give the impression that we have something better.

As far as I know, all the EEA/EFTA countries have bespoke deals. I am just not sure. I do wonder how much damage has been done to the relationship, and whether it can be repaired in any way.

Bobochic · 24/01/2017 16:00

The other 27 countries have no interest at all in giving the U.K. a bespoke Brexit deal. This has nothing to do with punishing the U.K. and everything to do with intra-EU negotiations going forward.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/01/2017 16:11

rufus The US of course can only cut off all US government funding from its own agencies or what it gives to particular health charities or NGOs overseas.
The funding from other countries continues.
However, health funding is spread very thinly across the developing world, so losing US budget - or ending some medical aid to avoid this - means some reproductive health services are slashed or just stopped in some countries.
From my links:
y
Going on results of similar Republican bans in the past, Marie Stopes org estimate:
"as a result of the reimposition of the global gag order, the loss of their services alone could result in 6.5m unintended pregnancies during Trump’s first term,

2.1m unsafe abortions, and 21,700 maternal deaths."

"the Guttmacher Institute, reporting on the findings of a research initiative by NGOs, when George W Bush reimposed the global gag rule, the US agency for international development was forced to cut off shipments of contraceptives to 16 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
At the time, one in four women in Lesotho were infected with HIV. The contraceptive shipments to Lesotho Planned Parenthood – the only available conduit for condoms in the country – ended as a result of Bush’s actions.

He created more unwanted pregnancies, and more babies with HIV.
Trump’s act is likely to do the same."

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 16:17

BBC are currently reshowing a documentary by Neil Oliver called 'Scotland and The Klan'. It looks at the relationship between Scotland and the Deep South's Klan roots. Its got a lot to do with having a romantic vision of the past of Scotland.

I never knew that.

OP posts:
Cailleach1 · 24/01/2017 16:25

I read somewhere it also affect services for women who need treatment for ectopic pregnancies? I don't know if that is the case.

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 16:26

Ipsos MORI ‏*@IpsosMORI*

Concern about #NHS rises 8 percentage points; seen as most important issue facing Britain

www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3832/A-rise-in-those-who-think-the-NHS-and-povertyinequality-are-important-issues-facing-Britain.aspx

Hello Labour. Wakey Wakey.

Chuka knows best.

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day
OP posts:
Peregrina · 24/01/2017 16:30

Hello Labour. Wakey Wakey.

Please - this is potentially the Tories Achilles heel.

TuckersBadLuck · 24/01/2017 16:32

Concern about #NHS rises 8 percentage points; seen as most important issue facing Britain

That's not how I read that chart! It scores highest in a combination of 'most important' and 'other important issues' but third behind Brexit and Immigration as the most important issue.

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 16:35

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/24/panama-papers-media-investigation-next-donald-trump-hold-accountable?CMP=share_btn_tw
We broke the Panama Papers story. Here's how to investigate Donald Trump

We were successful because we collaborated with other journalists. Now it is time for the media to join forces once again – especially given the threat Trump poses

From the Guardian.

Trump has just signed an executive order to plow ahead with the Dakota Pipeline. Trump had (has?) stocks in the Company building it.

I wonder what the situation is now...

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 24/01/2017 16:38

Brexit Options

The Swiss-EU relationship is based on a series of bilateral agreements which are highly complex, unwieldy and took years to develop.
The EU would hate another such system for the UK, but it is a possible option.

Norway, Swiss options etc clearly laid out by Magic Circle law firm Slaughter & May, including pro/ anti Brexit viewpoints:
(Jan 2016, but despite the introduction ref to Cameron, the options stand)

www.slaughterandmay.com/media/2535258/brexit-essentials-alternatives-to-eu-membership.pdf

WTO:
www.slaughterandmay.com/media/2535741/brexit-essentials-the-world-trade-organization.pdf

"The EEA incorporates the four freedoms of the internal market (free movement of goods, people, services and capital) and related policies (competition, transport, energy, and economic and monetary cooperation)"

www.europarl.europa.eu/atyourservice/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_6.5.3.html

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 16:41

Combined its not the most important issue. If you look at the detail IPSOS also state:

Concern about the NHS is concentrated amongst older people; 47% of those aged 55 and over cite it as one of the biggest issues facing Britain, compared to 34% of those aged 18-34. Fifty-two per cent of those living in the south of England (excluding London) name it as one of the biggest issues facing Britain.

Concern about Brexit, easily could be highest because of people opposing it as much as supporting it.

Notable is the older demographic about Brexit though. This is where Labour are currently weak.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 16:43

www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/issues-index-dec-2016-charts.pdf
Full report here

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 16:49

Concern about EU/Brexit by subgroups page is fascinating particularly the map:

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 17:18

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/24/crisis-social-care-rebels-tories-surrey-county-council
It’s a crisis indeed when the social care rebels are Tories

article mention this story from last week where two Tory Councillor quit on the Isle of Wight.

www.iwcp.co.uk/news/news/shock-resignation-of-isle-of-wight-council-leader-and-deputy-97348.aspx?mn=1

Cllr Bacon said: "Steve and I have done our best to lead the council through the difficulties it faces, but, in the face of the unwillingness of government to lift a finger to help and the preference for too many elected members to act negatively rather than try and help, we are of the view that our positions as leader and deputy leader of the council are now untenable and, perhaps more pertinently, intolerable.

"Therefore with apologies to all those who have worked, whether with us or otherwise, to address the problems the Island faces, we are resigning from the leadership roles of the Isle of Wight Council and the council executive."

Cllr Stubbings said: "The Isle of Wight Council has been forced into a corner where, with the best will in the world, the opportunity for anyone with even a modicum of compassion and concern for residents to do anything to address issues that need to be dealt with is pretty much impossible in the face of the cuts that have been and which continue to be imposed."

All is not well in Toryland

OP posts:
RufusTheSpartacusReindeer · 24/01/2017 17:20

Thank you bigchoc

So its a voluntary thing

Please dont misunderstand me i think its a dreadful thing he is doing but i just know my dad is going to mention this and i need to make sure my facts are right

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 17:30

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-ryanair-boss-warns-uk-aviation-industry-will-fall-off-a-cliff-it-loses-access-to-eu-open-a7543966.html
Brexit: Ryanair boss warns UK aviation industry will ‘fall off a cliff’ if it loses access to EU Open Skies agreement

Airlines'unrestricted access to European airports could beunder threat because the Government plans to restrict free movement of labour, Michael O'Leary has suggested

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 24/01/2017 17:40

It's an "overseas aid thing:" the US has a foreign aid dept, like the UK or France or Germany does.
Any Western country can use their aid to influence - in this case to bully - developing countries

The US would stop ALL its funding to any NGO or dept of health in a developing country, if a staff member there gives any advice whatsoever about abortion. So, not even performing them.
So some developing countries won't be able to afford womens' healthcare services like contraception (including in regions with 25% HIV), maternity care, post-rape care etc

RedToothBrush · 24/01/2017 17:41

Laura Kuenssberg ‏*@bbclaurak*
Source confirms govt plan is to introduce bill this Thursday, with plan to clear all three stages in Commons within a fortnight

In a fortnight. That's done and dusted by the Stoke and Copeland By-Elections.

We'll see.

OP posts:
RufusTheSpartacusReindeer · 24/01/2017 17:43

Perfect thanks bigchoc

I thought it might be the case but couldnt see anything definite...couldnt see the wood for the trees

BigChocFrenzy · 24/01/2017 17:49

UK airlines access:
My understanding is that UK airlines would have far fewer hubs - currently they can fly to any EU airport.
That right, red ?
Surely can't mean starting from scratch to get access to any hubs. Surely agreements to the main airports would remain ?

Peregrina · 24/01/2017 18:06

Airbus is now getting upset. I have relatives in area although not working in the industry and grew up there myself. It's a depressed area; loss of Airbus would be a huge blow. I am pretty sure they voted Leave. Don't think a deal with Trump will help. They would close Airbus down in a trice because it's a competitor to Boeing.