Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

[RedToothBrush]

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

Free Movement is based on nationality not ethnicity or religion.

Most Leavers wish fewer new immigrants, which is a perfectly valid point of view, quite widely shared in the UK.
However, it is hypocritical to claim their objection to FOM is only because too many of the immigrants are white
Unless Leavers mean that they only want to replace say 200,000 EU immigrants annually by 200,000 from Asia & Africa - who are probably in greater need than East Europeans.
If so, I misunderstood their wishes for Brexit.

Peregrina - thank you for that west coast article.

An excerpt:
I think Trump ultimately is going to do America and the world a service by becoming the vehicle that will finally take down right-wing conservative politics for a generation or two. He is getting the entire Republican conservative establishment to buy into his regime. He is creating an administration that is blatantly all about rule by — and for — billionaires, sold out to the oil and carbon industries, and celebrating an out-of-control corporate capitalism. It will be a caricature of conservative policies. In short order he will completely and irrevocably alienate all the growing political constituencies of the 21st century: the Millennial Generation, people of color, educated professionals, women. He’ll eventually do the same for a significant number of more moderate Republicans. And does anyone out there really think Trump will do anything for the white working class that got him elected?...

I think the backlash will be fast and furious. And it won’t just be Trump that goes down — it will be large swaths of conservative Republicans who will be almost helpless to stop Trump or distance themselves from him. They will pay the price for creating the conditions that created him. I think the next 4 to 8 years are going to see a serious sea change in politics — to the left, not the right. The analogy is closer to what happened to the conservative Republicans coming out of the 1930s — they were out of power for the next 50 years.

A Hillary Clinton win would not have brought about that kind of political transformation. She would have ground out some progress through trench warfare and built somewhat on Obama’s legacy— but the Republicans would have locked her down worse than they did with Obama.

I have to agree.

I think moderate Republicans are already horrified.

I am crossing my fingers that the mid-term elections in 2018 will clear the Senate and the House of the GOP majority and there will be a return to checks and balances. Trump will be in a hurry top get as much as possible done between now and election day 2018, and the onslaught will be too much, I hope and pray, for American voters (though with every sympathy for those who will suffer thanks to the fact that the US is now being run by robber barons). In particular, I suspect that destroying the ACA and failure to provide alternative affordable health insurance or acknowledge healthcare as a civil right will come back to haunt the GOP. Other issues that will galvanise voters are the selloff - for buttons, and no doubt to the well connected - of federal lands, defunding of Planned Parenthood, destruction of public service unions and other strong unions, and the attempt (watch this space) to destroy the public school system.

Wrt the trade delegation to Germany...

Tempted to ask 'what were they thinking?' and leave it at that.

But I think the spectacular misfire illustrates a fundamental and extremely worrying misreading of German business sentiment. There is so much hubris surrounding Brexit negotiations, so much reliance on the 'fact' that the EU needs the UK, yet when we look at Germany's global trade figures - and they are available to everyone - surely it is obvious that nobody needs the UK all that badly, and that Britain is well behind Germany in terms of global trading relationships despite the alleged dampening effect of EU membership.

The thing is with the Leaver businessmen in Germany, they really, truly do believe the stuff about the EU needing the UK more than we need them.

The snag with that is, if what you believe in is wrong in a very real sense, you'll come a cropper. It's like believing you can fly of your own accord - reality, in the form of gravity, will prove your belief mistaken.

Nail on the head there, PattyPenguin.

However, it is hypocritical to claim their objection to FOM is only because too many of the immigrants are white

And yet it's clearly an argument suggested in the UKIPer's handbook. I've had it before.

Apparently voting Remain betrays me as a racist. There are over 5bn non-whites in the world, mostly outside Europe, and only 1.3bn whites, mostly inside Europe. Allowing FOM from the EU therefore discriminates against non-whites and is therefore a racist policy. This has been said to me with a straight face, by a UKIP party member.

"In my experience the most important factor in embracing technology was always how open-minded and curious people were. If people wanted to learn then they did, if they closed their minds to the possibilities they got nowhere. It has never benefited from a top-down pedagogical model; the best teachers have always understood this."

"I wonder if this may be more of an indicator of voting patterns than the digital divide? It's the embracing rather than the technology itself? Don't know - may be a bit too simplistic?"

I think there may be something in this. From my experience on MN Brexit threads I would certainly say that remainers display a more open-minded approach, willing to try and look at things from a different point of view and consider alternative ways of looking at things, and trying to understand where others are coming from and accepting that others have a different viewpoint without trying to denigrate them. Not like those narrow minded, uncurious, philistine leavers tttsk.

A Hillary Clinton win would not have brought about that kind of political transformation. She would have ground out some progress through trench warfare and built somewhat on Obama’s legacy— but the Republicans would have locked her down worse than they did with Obama.

Comparing this to Brexit, the same would have happened to Cameron, in the way it did with Major. The Eurosceptics wouldn't have given in, they would just have kept on. I'd like to think that if they carry on, they will make such a complete mess, that they will destroy themselves.

I think moderate Republicans are already horrified.
I would like to think that moderate Tories are already horrified with May, but if so, not many are speaking out yet.

Trump will be in a hurry top get as much as possible done between now and election day 2018,
Ditto with May's unseemly rush to get things through as quickly as possible.

In particular, I suspect that destroying the ACA and failure to provide alternative affordable health insurance or acknowledge healthcare as a civil right will come back to haunt the GOP.
I am not sure what will be the trigger in the UK. The NHS after all, is nothing to do with the EU.

In the same way as in the US article, this may eventually, after a lot of pain and distress for many people lead, to much needed reform. I would dearly like a Reform of Parliament to clear out much of the dead wood. It can't be right that a handful of marginal seats dictate the outcome of how the whole country is governed. If we finally wake up to the fact that the Empire is long gone as a country we might begin to have a realistic assessment of our attributes and abilities and what we can offer to the rest of the world. Most of us value the Health Service so it would be good to see a proper debate about how and what we want to afford and how we want to pay for it, rather than just selling it off piecemeal to American firms. We used to value a safety net for citizens who fell on hard times; I would like to see that come back again. I'd like to see investment in public utilities. At the moment, it all seems pie in the sky, but if May and the Tories make a mess, we may begin to grope towards that.

I am expecting some shit to hit the fan today - but I will be out much of the day, and insulated from the news.

Re abortion:

No women present when he signed against women having abortions.

Canadian article

www.journaldemontreal.com/2017/01/23/trump-signe-contre-lavortement-entoure-dhommes-seulement

I feel strongly that every one in the world should have an equal right to come here not that Canadians. Australians etc. get special rights. I feel we should have a level playing field for all and that we have to rethink our policy and seek people from all over the world to fill shortages of labour.

Re Trump’s Day of Patriotic Devotion. Same way of thinking as Remainers being branded traitors and T May’s accusation of being “citizens of nowhere”.That speech was the point I went off TM. Scary this side of the Atlantic as well.

I think you are out of luck Corcory, certainly as far as Mrs May goes:
Kith and Kin

"This policy is largely down to Theresa May when Home Secretary deciding that she didn't want immigrants. She wasn't prevented by EU laws from controlling the movement of EU citizens she just chose not to enact them. She decided to go after the other immigrants because IMO she could use EU law as a smokescreen. As it happened, she failed to control non-EU immigration anyway. I believe most non - EU immigration is from the Indian sub-continent. So if the policies are racist - blame Theresa May."

Thank you Peregrina, you said it better than I could have.

Just to add that the leavers I know are worried about and have extremely negative views on Merkel letting in refugees from Syria and surrounding regions.

Another reason leavers I know wanted out was the hysteria that a) these millions of (Muslim) refuges would be headed for the UK (see the hysteria and racist Daily Mail reports on Calais) and b) the remote possibility that Turkish (Muslim) citizens would travel to the EU visa free. I do not believe for a moment that the majority of leavers support an immigration policy that lets people of all ethnicities, religions and 'colours' in daily, they just don't want immigration because they are not comfortable with foreigners, especially non-white, non-'Christian' ones.

"I feel strongly that every one in the world should have an equal right to come here not that Canadians. Australians etc. get special rights. I feel we should have a level playing field for all and that we have to rethink our policy and seek people from all over the world to fill shortages of labour." Then Theresa May and the Tories do not represent your views.

Another reason leavers I know wanted out was the hysteria that a) these millions of (Muslim) refuges would be headed for the UK (see the hysteria and racist Daily Mail reports on Calais) and b) the remote possibility that Turkish (Muslim) citizens would travel to the EU visa free. I do not believe for a moment that the majority of leavers support an immigration policy that lets people of all ethnicities, religions and 'colours' in daily, they just don't want immigration because they are not comfortable with foreigners, especially non-white, non-'Christian' ones.

That's my experience of the opinions of the more loud-mouthed Leavers as well. For all I know there may well be hordes of less shouty Leavers who want to leave the EU because they object to all these white Europeans arriving and would prefer a more representative international mix though.

The immigrants Theresa May favours are white and speak English as a first language. Don't try to tell me that is not racist.

Morning

Just absorbing the relevance of that guardian article from last night:

Government lawyers have warned Theresa May that drawing up a very short piece of legislation in response to Tuesday’s supreme court ruling on whether MPs should be given a vote on Brexit may not be adequate.

The Guardian understands that legal advice to the prime minister and the Brexit secretary, David Davis, suggests that while a single-clause bill would be politically attractive if they lose the case, it could store up difficulties for the government further down the line.

It doesn't matter if the government win. Its a hollow victory. It just preserves the Royal Prerogative. I except something on the rights of EU nationals to feature. Probably in relation to British citizens married or with children. (See right to a family life under Human Rights Act).

Also the government have more or less admitted that even if they have the RP right they probably will have to seal it though parliament (certainly Moggy has said this) otherwise it lacks legitimacy even if its legal.

Which makes you wonder why on earth they decided to fight it, unless its all about undermining the courts.

Live stream available here:
www.supremecourt.uk/live/court-01.html
I think BBC News and Sky News are also carrying.

Over in Ireland:
www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/enda-kenny-to-warn-the-uk-not-to-renege-on-belfast-agreement-1.2948304
Enda Kenny to warn the UK not to renege on Belfast Agreement
Taoiseach is to hold talks on Brexit and Stormont with Theresa May next week

Math, "And does anyone out there really think Trump will do anything for the white working class that got him elected?.."

Well, the first thing he did was get in motion the removal of the Affordable Care Act.

www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/01/23/repealing-the-affordable-care-act-will-kill-more-than-43000-people-annually/?utm_term=.25418f8b676e

Only a little while now for the Supreme Court decision. I think other than NI, the rest is somewhat of a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic. Labour will support the triggering. Whether certain powers were given to NI is a bigger question than even Scotland being consulted.

Mike Smithson ‏*@MSmithsonPB*

£ rising against $ in anticipation of Supreme Court Ruling

hmmm what does that mean?!

The Telegraph ‏*@Telegraph*
Ewan McGregor refuses to appear on Good Morning Britain due to Piers Morgan comments on the Women’s March

HERO!

8 to 3 victory on a50 on parliament

Lord Neuberger appears nervous

Good. I hope the judges get police protection. It sickens me that this is one of the first things I should think of but I think there will be many stupid angry people incensed by this.