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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 21:57

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-guy-hands-says-cut-wages-30-percent-twenty-years-private-equity-a7540986.html
Brexit could cut wages by 30% over next two decades, says private equity boss Guy Hands

Leaving the European Union will be bad for most people but good for his own multi-billion pound fund, he says

You need to be an expert to see this coming?

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Peregrina · 23/01/2017 21:58

And part of government’s job, by the way, is dealing with problems that nobody else wants to deal with.

This should be put on a plaque and one given to everyone who holds a Government Office. Non of this 'the people have spoken' i.e. we will cop out of the job we were elected for.

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 22:03

May is in an impossible position.

She is, but many or most of the problems are of her own making. Today's Missile test fiasco for a start is one she could have avoided by being open as soon as she got the news.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 22:05

But it was funny in the HOC Peregrina I'm sure she won't cover up anything else.

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 22:08

Absolutely - it's entirely her own fault.

lalalonglegs · 23/01/2017 22:12

Well, here's some good news: Govt lawyers are urging May not to put forward a one-clause bill as it will lead to further court appeals. So it looks as if Parliament may get a fair crack at the Brexit whip Smile.

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 22:12

Nick Reeves - 48% ‏*@nickreeves9876*

Labour MPs thinking of cooperating with the Tories on A50, should think of what cooperating with the Tories did to the LibDems

Turning thoughts to tomorrows Judgement Day:
www.theguardian.com/law/2017/jan/23/lawyers-warn-may-against-short-brexit-bill-if-supreme-court-says-vote-is-needed?CMP=twt_gu
Lawyers warn May against short Brexit bill if supreme court says vote is needed
PM and Brexit secretary are advised not to put single-clause bill to MPs because it could result in further court appeals

Government lawyers have warned Theresa May that drawing up a very short piece of legislation in response to Tuesday’s supreme court ruling on whether MPs should be given a vote on Brexit may not be adequate.

The Guardian understands that legal advice to the prime minister and the Brexit secretary, David Davis, suggests that while a single-clause bill would be politically attractive if they lose the case, it could store up difficulties for the government further down the line.

Oh. That could be interesting. Do read the whole article...

And with that, I shall see you all shortly before 9.30am to see what the Supreme Court think is our fate.

Brace yourselves.

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lalalonglegs · 23/01/2017 22:13

I should add... if, as expected, the Supreme Court rules against the government tomorrow.

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 22:13

But had to share this first:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/23/tory-donor-charlie-mullins-predicts-theresa-may-quit-within-two-years-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
Tory donor predicts Theresa May will have to quit within two years

Businessman Charlie Mullins, who helped fund article 50 legal challenge, believes fallout from Brexit talks will force PM out

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HesterThrale · 23/01/2017 22:20

Woman - May is disgracing us with her visit and ukip trade deals.

I agree. It's unbearably unfortunate timing that the UK is desperate for new deals at exactly the same time as DT takes office.

The UK will come out worst because he knows May's desperate for a deal. That's why he's invited her first to strike quickly; she needs to get a successful deal in the bag to show off to impatient sceptics back home. The chances of her doing something which will be regretted later are high, in my opinion. He has a problem with the truth, and drives a (very) hard bargain. Oh the indignity of it.

He probably also wants to make her suffer for her comments in the past ("I think we all agree that the comments Donald Trump made in relation to Muslims were divisive, unhelpful and wrong." TM Dec. 2015)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35113313

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 22:26

And not a mention of NI anywhere. Ill judged omission.

lalalonglegs · 23/01/2017 22:28

I think two years is rather generous of Mullins.

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 22:36

So was the missile fiasco story deliberately timed to cause maximum embarrassment? If so May scored an own goal. If she wants to negotiate any deal, she will have to learn how to handle such issues, or realise that she doesn't have the ability and put someone in place who does.

She ought to know - she cracks on to be Christian - there is enough in the New Testament about people having different gifts and skills.

user1484653592 · 23/01/2017 22:45

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/23/wales-access-to-single-market-brexit-carwyn-jones-leanne-wood?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-2 Wales should keep access to single market, say party leaders

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 22:51

Gibraltar also wants (and needs) to stay in the Single Market.

HesterThrale · 23/01/2017 22:56

I've been researching (since my post back on p.20!) how to write to various MPs and it seems on Writetothem you can't write to anyone except your own MP. (Although I'm unsure how they'd know.) Also trying to find lists of how they voted alongside their constituency vote. Failed to find a straightforward guide!

So I'll write to my MP.
If your (Tory) MP is on the list in the article below (especially if a Remain area), consider writing asking them if it's right to vote for a deal which rules out the Single Market when that was in the 2015 Manifesto as something that would stay.

www.ibtimes.co.uk/full-list-remain-mps-who-could-block-brexit-by-voting-article-50-down-1589766

Labour Remain MPs in Remain areas should also fear going against constituents' wishes. They may fear being ousted next GE. But also they should consult their conscience.... Is it right for the country to have a Hard Brexit? Should they vote to allow Article 50 if it means leaving the SM?

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 23:05

I wrote to my supposedly Remain MP yesterday, pointing out the statement in the manifesto about the Single Market. I asked her to point out to me where it said that if we went for a Leave vote we would seek a hard Brexit. Otherwise, I told her, that since the Conservatives were elected to form a Government, their Manifesto commitment is their mandate and that still stands.

Since she has stopped bothering to answer, I don't expect a reply.

HesterThrale · 23/01/2017 23:10

Well done Peregrina.

This is depressing. Brexiter businessmen trying to get German trade deals were laughed at:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38707997

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 23:20

I don't find it depressing at all that the Brexiteer businessmen were laughed at. They wanted out of the EU. We have a Foreign Secretary who believes in insulting European Countries and an MEP who has repeatedly taunted other MEPs, as well as having a dismal attendance record. Given all that, I don't know why these businessmen were so stupid as to go to Germany - it's up to them to find trade deals elsewhere.

SwedishEdith · 23/01/2017 23:35

Scanning quickly so someone may ahve already said this but,

"In my experience the most important factor in embracing technology was always how open-minded and curious people were. If people wanted to learn then they did, if they closed their minds to the possibilities they got nowhere. It has never benefited from a top-down pedagogical model; the best teachers have always understood this."

I wonder if this may be more of an indicator of voting patterns than the digital divide? It's the embracing rather than the technology itself? Don't know - may be a bit too simplistic?

Corcory · 23/01/2017 23:55

Smurfs - The Scottish government didn't roll over for DT's bullying tactics and neither should the UK government. Also you just need to look at the pub thread last week to see that every single leaver said they were very happy with what TM had said in her speech and that is exactly what they had wanted to happen to FOM. I know, I asked the question of them.
User - I find the whole FOM for EU citizens much much more racist in that you are looking at the immigration of white Christians in the main, I feel strongly that we should not give one ethnic race or creed more rights than an other.
Kaija - Daniel Hannan has some weird ideas and is far from representative.

.

SwedishEdith · 24/01/2017 00:10

www.theguardian.com/books/2017/jan/22/amartya-sen-brexit-trump-press-freedom?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting interview with Amartya Sen, economist.

Peregrina · 24/01/2017 00:16

User - I find the whole FOM for EU citizens much much more racist in that you are looking at the immigration of white Christians in the main, I feel strongly that we should not give one ethnic race or creed more rights than an other.

This policy is largely down to Theresa May when Home Secretary deciding that she didn't want immigrants. She wasn't prevented by EU laws from controlling the movement of EU citizens she just chose not to enact them. She decided to go after the other immigrants because IMO she could use EU law as a smokescreen. As it happened, she failed to control non-EU immigration anyway. I believe most non - EU immigration is from the Indian sub-continent. So if the policies are racist - blame Theresa May.

SwedishEdith · 24/01/2017 00:48

Trump names his Inauguration Day a ‘National Day of Patriotic Devotion’

Starting to sound quite scary now.

SummerLightning · 24/01/2017 01:26

That BBC article is very damning for the BBC.
No attempt to polish the turd in that.

Just saw that Swedish. Scary but I hope I get the day off Grin . Very near mlk day as well, next thing it'll be cancel that and have trump celebration day instead Shock