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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

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Thread gallery
14
Peregrina · 23/01/2017 17:26

One failure of countless firing simulations & numerous live firing exercises is a pretty bloody good failure rate.
The shambles now is wholly due to Cameron not reporting it when it actually happened. By the time of the trident debate, it was old news & had no bearing on the debate,

Theresa May should have said that at the time, or even put some figures on it 99/100 (or whatever) is a good success rate, we have investigated what went wrong, blah, blah, - end of debate, Trident voted through.

She needs to learn from the wartime spying and double crossing programmes - feed enough true information to be believable. She made a complete fool of herself yesterday by refusing to answer the question and trying to blame Corbyn for being unpatriotic. The danger for her now is that the public will believe that the missiles are unreliable, because her behaviour has caused the problem.

TuckersBadLuck · 23/01/2017 17:27

It was the Trident missiles in particular I was interested in, because of the cost. I'm always astonished just how much military hardware costs and what a waste of money it all is.

Totally irrelevant to the thread though, so just ignore me.

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:27

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/john-bercow-caught-muttering-michael-9678982
John Bercow caught muttering about Michael Fallon 'picking a fight' over Trident
The Speaker's microphone caught him in a moment of honesty as he suggested the Defence Secretary was being "rather stupid"

I'm glad this is being reported! I wondered what Bercow said and whether he was allowed to!

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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:30

Guido Fawkes ‏*@GuidoFawkes*

Just to repeat. The only interested party not aware of Trident test failure was British taxpayer - who foots Bill.

When even Guido's saying this...

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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:42

David Allen Green @Lawandpolicy
Some thoughts on tomorrow's appeal judgment on the Article 50 case. 1/n
Nobody outside Supreme Court will know decision until tomorrow.
Any forecasts are guesses, and will only be correct by coincidence. 2/n
The lawyers will be told decision before the decision is given publicly. Their clients will thereby know immediately hearing begins.3/n
There are four possible broad outcomes to the appeal, as far as i can imagine. 4/n
The first is that May wins. She can notify A50 by prerogative. She re-takes control of timetable after high court defeat. 5/n
The second is that May loses on the parliamentary approval point. That means an ACt passed by both houses of parliament. 6/n
On balance, I think there is a 70% chance that the result be one of those two. The other two possible outcomes more remote. 7/n
A third outcome would be bad defeat for May - where there is formal involvement of devolved powers (veto or not).
20% chance of this. 8/n
A fourth possible outcome would be reference to ECJ.
Hilarious but unlikely. 9/n
Remember, the only reason there is a decision is because May appealed high court decision. 10/n
Had May accepted high court decision and got on with things, there would likely be an A50 Act of Parliament by now. But she appealed. 11/n
And remember, only reason a case at all is because MPs did not provide for legal effect of Leave vote in Referendum legislation. 12/ends.

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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:50

averypublicsociologist.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/paul-nuttall-in-stoke.html?spref=tw
Paul Nuttall in Stoke

A blog rather sceptical of Paul Nuttalls of the UKIPs chances in Stoke.

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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:55

Paul Brand ‏*@PaulBrandITV*
.@TulipSiddiq tells me she will vote against triggering Article 50 because her constituents come first even if she has to resign shadow role

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woman12345 · 23/01/2017 17:59
Smile
RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 18:10

I can't find much about this, but a few days ago Antonio Tajani was elected Head of the European Parliament replacing Schulz and beating Verhofstadt who dropped out at the last minute.

He's more right wing - a member of the European People's Party (EEP).

He's Italian and served in Berlusconi Government.

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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 18:14

Otto English ‏*@Otto*_English
Paul Nuttall of the UKIPs. Just a regular working class guy... hanging out at his Mayfair gentleman's club like an average working class guy
My cub reporter work has concluded that @paulnuttallukip is a member of the Athenaeum
theathenaeum.org.uk/

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day
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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 18:16

www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-this-is-the-future-the-unstoppable-march-of-machines-a3447611.html
Nick Clegg: This is the future: the unstoppable march of machines

What will Trump and May do as even white-collar jobs look set to be eradicated by Artificial Intelligence?

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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 18:22

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/22/theresa-may-donald-trump-hold-talks-trade-deal-cuts-tariffs/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
Theresa May and Donald Trump to hold talks on trade deal that cuts tariffs and allows workers to move between the US and UK

Theresa May and Donald Trump will this week hold talks over a US-UK trade deal that slashes tariffs and makes it easier for hundreds of thousands of workers to move between the two countries.

The Prime Minister will on Friday become the first foreign leader to hold talks with the new President in the White House following assurances by Mr Trump’s team that he wants to do a major free trade deal with Britain that can be announced in the weeks after Brexit.

One option understood to be being discussed in Whitehall is to agree to cut – or even drop – tariffs on items Britain and America already export to one another.

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Kaija · 23/01/2017 18:42

Is this good news for Brexiters who think there is too much freedom of movement, or bad news?

BigChocFrenzy · 23/01/2017 18:44

If Trump goes for an FTA with the UK, it's against his America First theme
(or does the Anglosphere trump everything ? )

Purely in terms of US trade interests, the UK has the same faults (just smaller scale) for which Trump has heavily criticised China:

The UK has a £35bn trade surplus with the US, owns lots of US assets, but has v little US production.

Any UK-branded car sold in the USA will have been built in Britain (except for a few Austrian Minis)
However, a German- or Japanese-branded car will probably have been built in the USA, e.g. BMW’s largest factory in the world is there.

Rolls Royce aero engines go to the USA to be fitted to Boeing aircraft, but the US exports very few aero engines to the UK, very few Pratt & Whitney, GE engines iirc.
However, the US exports many engines to France and Germany, to be fitted to Airbuses.

The US imports gigantic quantities of Scotch, but exports very little bourbon.
etc

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 18:47

Dave Bancroft @davebancroft

@OttoEnglish Using MEP expenses to pay for accommodation while campaigning for UKIP parliamentary seat isn't allowed @EUCommission

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GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 18:47

We certainly seem to be on course to replace EU migrants with more US, Australian, Indian and potentially Chinese... that's if we want trade deals of course...

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 18:50

With tough and fair agreements, international trade can be used to grow our economy, return millions of jobs to America’s shores, and revitalize our nation’s suffering communities
www.whitehouse.gov/trade-deals-working-all-americans.
or
Theresa May and Donald Trump will this week hold talks over a US-UK trade deal that slashes tariffs and makes it easier for hundreds of thousands of workers to move between the two countries.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/22/theresa-may-donald-trump-hold-talks-trade-deal-cuts-tariffs/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw
?

BigChocFrenzy · 23/01/2017 18:52

Brexiters & Trump (but maybe not Trumpers ?) are probably happy about immigration within the Anglosphere.
They just don't like hearing foreign accents. Or foreign ideas.
I wonder how Trump would feel about immigration from British Muslims (because he informed his supporters about London "no go" areas), or May about African-Americans.
Maybe that's what the negotiations will be mostly about, extending the white Anglosphere.

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 18:55

Will it just be white Americans which get the visas easily, or blacks and hispanics? Why is EU immigration a BAD THING but American immigration good? Taking the NHS - I can't see US doctors wanting to come to the UK. US nurses? I am not sure. They don't have the same tradition of midwifery, so I am not sure whether that's a possibility. Care home workers, fruit pickers?

BigChocFrenzy · 23/01/2017 18:56

I keep checking what's happening about that 170k of misused MEP funds that UKIP were supposed to repay to the EU Parliamentary expenses.
The due date has expired - it was about 20 December iirc.

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 18:57

Something of a cross post with BigChoc there. I suspect what will happen will be that it will become easier for UK citizens to get visas for the US, so we will see a brain drain in that direction as we had during the 60s.

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 18:58

www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/brexit-prompts-corporate-merger-first/5059479.article
Brexit prompts corporate merger first

The High Court has cleared the way for UK companies to be absorbed by European subsidiaries as they restructure in response to the UK decision to leave the EU. The mechanism of a ‘reverse cross-border merger’ is set out in an EU directive, but had not previously been permitted under English law.

Hahahahahahahaha. Under English law. Reverse Mergers.

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BigChocFrenzy · 23/01/2017 19:00

Aha, 51st state, future in the USA, not EU.
OK, we'll be in a trade bloc, obeying all their rules, accepting immigration.

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:03

I agree, in Brexitland white English people are fine - hence the misbegotten obsession with commonwealth.

But people of different hues will inevitably lead to handwringing.

May is definitely opposed to more Indian immigrants as that's was partly what scuppered the India-EU trade deal. I'm not sure how she's going to secure that one as India has been amply clear that that's their bottom line.

From a Tory POV it will become clear very quickly that we have to accept all non EU countries migrant demands, or we will have no fucking trade deals AT ALL.

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:04

*English speaking I meant