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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

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SemiPermanent · 23/01/2017 19:07

And the circle completes again as we're back to the notion that Leave voters are inherently racist.
Tedious generalisation yet again...

^probably happy about immigration within the Anglosphere.
They just don't like hearing foreign accents. Or foreign ideas.^

^in Brexitland white English people are fine - hence the misbegotten obsession with commonwealth.

But people of different hues will inevitably lead to handwringing.^

BigChocFrenzy · 23/01/2017 19:11

Hang on < baffled > That's losing control we have, not taking it back:

  1. Being in a US trading bloc as #2 would give the UK very little voice, compared to being #3 in the EU

Would buying choice bits of the NHS be among the "very few" concessions Trump wants ?
And US companies suing over legislation they don't like, such as antibiotics and hormones in meat, or warnings on cigarette packets ?
Which court adjudicates disputes ?

  1. Reverse mergers: UK companies that own rEU subsidiaries would be taken over by those subsidiaries ?
RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 19:14

51st State is what I am expecting. Its what I've expected for some time. Boris Johnson will be over the moon. He'll only have single citizenship.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/23/gchq-chief-robert-hannigan-quits
GCHQ chief Robert Hannigan quits
Hannigan oversaw a more open approach at GCHQ after the Snowden revelations exposed mass surveillance by the agency

Alexander Clarkson
‏*@APHClarkson*
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  1. We're seeing a grand experiment in what happens to different parts of the world when the withdrawal of US power suddenly seems possible.
  2. The biggest mistake is to think that states neighbouring other Great Powers will simply roll over and let themselves be dominated.
  3. The opposite is more likely the case. India-Pakistan relations could become a template for what happens in many parts of the world.
  4. Vietnam vs China. Ukraine vs Russia. Iran vs Saudi Arabia. Withdrawal of US means it has less control over how allies respond to threats
  5. Russian and Chinese leaders overjoyed at Trump's farcical errors will face more unpredictable local challengers to their dominance
  6. While US could strike grand bargains with Russia or China, large states neighbouring both have far more intractable points of conflict
  7. In less than 3 years Ukraine has expanded its army to 280 000 troops. Vietnam has a vast defence and security establishment.
  8. Many US and Russian pundits often ignore the agency and power of states neighbouring Russia and China. A dangerous error.
  9. By binding states like Japan, Ukraine or Vietnam into formal or informal alliances the US also had influence to restrain them in a crisis
10. Once US leaves there is little to restrain powerful states neighbouring China and Russia from taking big risks to defend their position 11. If you want to look at what happens in parts of the world where US has limited means to influence powerful states take a look at Kashmir 12. If Donbas and the Spratly Islands develop the same dynamic as Kashmir has even a US resurgence after Trump will not lead to de-escalation 13. The Trump paradox for Russia could be that the grand bargain it strikes with the US turns out to make its situation worse 14. The Trump paradox for China could be that the power vacuum left by US withdrawal is filled by Japan, India and Vietnam 15. Russian and Chinese elites talked about a multipolar moment for decades. Well it's here and it may be too multipolar for their taste./ends.

UK? Damned to irrelevance of course.

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GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:16

It's a given that any US trade deal will allow US corporations and authorities input into our laws, and the opportunity to sue the government if our laws impact their profits.

But we now don't have the EU to decline GM food, chemically treated meat, pharmaceuticals which were dealbreakers for TTIP.

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:19

And the circle completes again as we're back to the notion that Leave voters are inherently racist.

NALVALT. Some. Too many for sure.

TheSmurfsAreHere · 23/01/2017 19:21

But that's what negociations are about when you do a deal. You have no other choice that giving something to the other party.
Or were they thinking that the mere idea of doing business with the uk was attractive enough in itself that they wouldn't have to make any concession at all??

It goes with the eu too btw.

TheSmurfsAreHere · 23/01/2017 19:23

Sorry Xpost.
I'm too slow at reading and typing than you lot.

TuckersBadLuck · 23/01/2017 19:24

It's a given that any US trade deal will allow US corporations and authorities input into our laws, and the opportunity to sue the government if our laws impact their profits.

But we now don't have the EU to decline GM food, chemically treated meat, pharmaceuticals which were dealbreakers for TTIP.

But at least we've taken back control and got our country back.

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 19:32

What I find beyond comprehension is that so few people have woken up to why Brexit leaves us turning to the US and why the inevitable outcome has always been a closer relationship with the US.

We have ALWAYS been the bridge between the EU and the US. In rejecting the EU what did people think would happen? Domination, unicorns and cake with the EU?

The Media need to start making the point LOUDLY.

Of course we know the reason why they won't? Its big orange and has a complex over size.

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GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:33

But that's what negociations are about when you do a deal

Sure but Brexiteers are foaming that we have given too much to the EU (sovereignty, money, FOM) without grasping that give and take is what all trade deals are based on.

Unpalatable truth of trade negotiations that Brexiteers will have to face is:

  1. If you want something, you have to pay for it 2)The smaller negotiating country pays more and gives more than the larger one.
  2. The more economic weight you have the better deal you get.
RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 19:34

I, for one, can't wait for the referendum over whether we should join the United States Economic Area.

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GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:35

The other thing they haven't considered is how much more expensive imports from the US will be simply due to transport costs.

Trading with your neighbour's is always cheaper on that score.

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:35

Neighbours no apostrophe.

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 19:37

hence the misbegotten obsession with commonwealth.
Only certain parts of the Commonwealth e.g. Australia, New Zealand and Canada. We haven't heard much about Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Fiji, Kenya.....to name a few. India let the side down by wanting visa concessions, how unkind of them

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 19:37

Previously, to bring democracy, one would boycott goods, services and trade with fascists.

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:39

Absolutely. Brexiteers regularly wax lyrical about reforging commonwealth links, but generally focus on Aus, NZ , Canada...

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:40

We're all fascists now.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 19:42

I don't understand that, Gloria?

AllTheLight · 23/01/2017 19:42

Belatedly place marking

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 19:53

And the circle completes again as we're back to the notion that Leave voters are inherently racist. Tedious generalisation yet again...

When you get Tory MPs like Graham North talking about trading with the Anglosphere, it's very difficult to see what else he can mean. People can waffle on about the Commonwealth having similar laws, so it will be easier, but the legacy of colonialism means that the black and brown nations of the commonwealth also have similar laws. South Africa may be one exception having laws based on the Dutch system.

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 19:55

You were saying that in the past one could boycott trade with fascists etc.

Unfortunately we are the fascists now. US & UK.

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 20:00

why the inevitable outcome has always been a closer relationship with the US.

That's what the Tory hard right want. I hope it doesn't happen in my lifetime and I hope that my family have decamped to the European mainland.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 20:06

I still don't understand, why are we even considering trading, working with this country and leader.

One supports those oppressed by these types by boycotts.

I am completely ignorant about trade deals, but we seem to be edging toward accepting trading with nations according to melatonin again.

There will be no referendum.

There was none on whether to boycott South African oranges post Sharpesville and Chilean wine after Pinochet had raped women raped by dogs.

One just organises and boycotts.

My family tree is stunted severely by fascists, Gloria.

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 20:14

I could just see that we became the 51st State just when the US has completed ceded hegemony to some country in the East.

GloriaGaynor · 23/01/2017 20:17

One side of mine too woman.

We're trading with them because our own government is not dissimilar. It doesn't have the ethics or the common sense to see where this may lead.