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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

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Thread gallery
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woman12345 · 23/01/2017 16:21

Fallon is repeating his advice not to believe the newspapers, Hmm
I heard that somewhere else?

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 16:22

cross posting Grin

lurkinghusband · 23/01/2017 16:30

Fallon is repeating his advice not to believe the newspapers,

Starting with the Daily Mail and Daily Express.

Finally some official advice I can get behind.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 16:30

What US knows, that we aren't allowed to. Live during Fallon's refusal to disclose detail in HOC. Shock
edition.cnn.com/2017/01/23/europe/trident-missile-failure-theresa-may/

TatianaLarina · 23/01/2017 16:34

This is ace, we can rely on Trump for our nuclear gossip. Grin

Peregrina · 23/01/2017 16:39

DH just said to me, 'But it's a Security issue'. To which I said not of the Russians and others, already know.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 16:41

@TomBlenkinsop
It would appear that MPs would be better off asking the US sec of state for information on our Trident test, rather than Defence SofS Fallon

The Labour peer Stewart Wood says Michael Fallon seems to be adopting the “alternative facts” approach championed by Donald Trump’s aide Kellyanne Conway.

@JWoodcockMP
Michael Fallon long had reputation of being the minister sent out whenever No10 needs protecting. Suspect that's what is happening now.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 16:47

Parliament has always been odd, but strange synchronicity there with your previous posts about generational attitudes to IT, and the luddite nature of this fight back against globalisation and technology.

Reassuring uncle Fallon, was telling MPs not to believe newspapers, when twitter was going mental throughout the debate, with information they wanted but he and May wouldn't give. Do they not realise what we can do and know?

Mad.

TuckersBadLuck · 23/01/2017 16:48

Daresbury is served by a single bus in the morning (8.20) and a single bus in the evening (5.30pm) from the local town

Irrelevant and pedantic I know but the local town is Runcorn, Daresbury being in Halton rather than Warrington. There's a perfectly reasonable bus service from Daresbury to Runcorn and connecting services to Warrington

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 16:49

Who won that debate?

Bobochic · 23/01/2017 16:52

TM is very possibly completely out of touch with technology. She has no DC/DGC to pull her into their digital reality.

SemiPermanent · 23/01/2017 16:54

I can't comment on the missile systems on submarines, but I worked for years on fighter & bomber aircraft, including missile systems.

Every time work is carried out on the systems, the system is disturbed due to other maintenance, and on a routine maintenance schedule, rigorous functional checks are carried out.
There are routine live-firing sorties too.

From what has been reported, it was a routine test on an inert missile following extensive work on the system.
One failure of countless firing simulations & numerous live firing exercises is a pretty bloody good failure rate.

The shambles now is wholly due to Cameron not reporting it when it actually happened.
By the time of the trident debate, it was old news & had no bearing on the debate, so I can understand why TM didn't make a point of it; however, her wriggling out of answering the direct question yesterday is ridiculous and has unfortunately made her look like an untrustworthy liar.

lurkinghusband · 23/01/2017 16:57

It would appear that MPs would be better off asking the US sec of state for information on our Trident test, rather than Defence SofS Fallon

Does anyone remember the "Yes (Prime ?)Minister" episode where there was a foreign crisis and the Foreign Secretary suggested that Jim Hacker keep him updated with the latest news ...

JH: "But you're the foreign secretary !"
FS: "Yes, but you've got a TV."

TuckersBadLuck · 23/01/2017 16:58

Do they recover and reuse these things following the numerous live firing exercises, or is it $$$millions up in smoke every time they text one?

TuckersBadLuck · 23/01/2017 16:59

*test not text

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:01

Its almost as good as the d-notice issue by the government a couple of weeks ago about the name of the former British spy, which was later removed after it was already plastered all over the WSJ.

I was on twitter whilst it was still in force and searched 'd-notice'. Suggested related searches? The spy's name.

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RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:02

Bloody hell tucker, I hope you can't text nuclear missiles with Trump about!

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SemiPermanent · 23/01/2017 17:04

Millions are spent every single day ensuring that QRA can launch within minutes.

That's the Aircraft that are on constant readiness to protect our airspace btw - they launch most weeks.

Fuel is the biggest expense burned I would imagine.

woman12345 · 23/01/2017 17:06

Wish Spitting Image was on to do this one. Disneyland whoopsie.

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:06

CNBC @CNBC
BREAKING: President Trump has formally signed the executive order regarding intent to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal

If Trump can do this, just like this, why can't he sign a deal and then reverse it the very next time we don't do what he says? He could constantly us it as a tool to make us jump higher.

A FTA with the US is a direct threat to our sovereignty.

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woman12345 · 23/01/2017 17:09

That's what Labour should be saying.

TuckersBadLuck · 23/01/2017 17:09

Do the missiles they fire to test them just blow up or sink or something though? I'm just curious, not trying to make any point.

lurkinghusband · 23/01/2017 17:11

Its almost as good as the d-notice issue by the government a couple of weeks ago about the name of the former British spy, which was later removed after it was already plastered all over the WSJ.

Or "Spycatcher". On sale in Scotland, but not England. (Another) one in the eye for Maggie ...

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2017 17:13

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/23/reported-putin-journalists-trump-media?CMP=twt_gu
I’ve reported on Putin – here are my tips for journalists dealing with Trump
Alexey Kovalev

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SemiPermanent · 23/01/2017 17:21

They fire at target drones etc, and blow stuff up, Tucker.

Links below from wiki re what QRA is (our air defence), and info about live firing exercises:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/QuickReactionn_Alert

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livefiree_exercise