Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

[RedToothBrush]

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

"Plenty of politicians lie when they are in Office. Theresa May has already told a blatant porky that 65 million people are behind her, when they are not."

This is true of course. But generally when politicians lie they attempt either to conceal the truth or to bend it. We seem to be in different territory right now where a president is telling flat out,180 degree, black is white lies when the evidence of his statements being false is right in front of everybody. No bending, no concealing: just "report it my way or else".

And of course Arron Banks and his ilk are right with him. Facts just white noise.

Kaija Was about to put something similar but you've saved me the trouble.

Anyone remember when Tony Blair was mocked when an internal memo was leaked of him complaining that he was not "personally associated" with good news?. Now Trump spends his first days in office when he should be thinking about his responsibilities to the country which elected him behaving like a spoilt toddler. I suspect (hope) that many of his supporters will tire of him quite quickly when it becomes clear that he cannot keep his promises. You can't actually lie your way through someone receiving a notice that their health insurance has just been terminated.

It would be very convenient if he were assassinated. But difficult to make it look like it's not an assassination.

At least people weren't expecting JFK to be shot.*

*No idea if that was assassination or genuine lone gunman who just happened to be a ex-Marine sniper. But if you have a lone gunman again, both will look fishy.

But what if it were a lone wolf Muslim? Wouldn't that confirm all the worst fears and, to some extent, legitimise Trump's racism? It would probably prolong it as no one would dare stand up for Muslims after that.

twofingers - it's absurd that I feel grateful to Hain for pointing out the bleeding obvious and acting in a way I would expect any half-decent politician to behave.

I think the lonewolf's been done.

It would have to be part of a bigger 'Isis' attack.

lala I know what you mean. It's absurd that I have to feel grateful to Ken Clarke, too!

What needs to be true for what happens next

John Schindler @20committee ‏
80%+ of the terror plots stopped "left of boom" since 9/11 were thanks to intel sharing -- which Trump is wrecking

Think about that for a second. Does Trump need intel to work? Or does it suit Trump's agenda for intel to fail? So that he gets the thing he needs to justify his next actions?

I suspect that Trump's threat to our intelligence service is a lot to do with why May is jumping on a plane. Not just our faulty nukes and our desperation for a trade deal. Our national security and economic security is so far up shit creek its untrue.

Labour do not support invoking article 50 on the grounds of National Security. At least not yet. There is a good argument to be made here.

Bill Kristol ‏**@BillKristol**
The point of a silly lie like Spicer's isn't to convince people of its truth. It's to demonstrate the powerlessness of the truth.(h/t Havel)

We might watch in disbelief at what is happening but this is essentially the crunch. How much and how hard and how long will people fight when the truth means nothing? Its to demoralise opposition. It is to render them irrelevant. This resistance to the reality and the truth is happening in the UK as much as in the USA. We need to be aware of the tactic and the purpose and to keep on keeping on regardless.

Garry Kasparov @Kasparov6
The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.

And thus MPs role over in the absence of critical thinking.

Elliott Lusztig ‏*@ezlusztig*
@BillKristol It is to demonstrate that truth will not save you. And a people stuck in that relation with its own government is not free.

The truth is still the truth, even if no one believes it. A lie is still a lie, even if everyone believes it.

Have to say, reading through a bunch of Vaclav Havel quote is positive mantra.
www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/71441.V_clav_Havel

also about his book
Power of the Powerless

I am of a mind to get people to bombard MPs with Havel Quotes.
“You can't spend your whole life criticizing something and then, when you have the chance to do it better, refuse to go near it.”
― Václav Havel

“Truth lies not only in what is said, but also in who says it, to whom, why, how and under what circumstances.”
― Václav Havel, Letters to Olga: June 1979-September 1982

Therefore when Corbyn goes all Trump on our asses in a deliberate political strategy, he sells us all down river. He starts to undermine the truth, rather than strengthen it. He removes the hope of people who believe in the power of the truth.

In short, Corbyn is a dick. And I'm with The Last Leg when they say, 'Don't be a dick'.

^Government uses Trump inauguration to 'sneak out' controversial tax credit 'rape clause'
Women will have to prove they became pregnant after having non-consensual sex if they want to receive tax credits for a third or subsequent child^
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/government-bury-rape-clause-child-tax-credit-donald-trump-inauguration-victim-sexual-abuse-evidence-a7540351.html
Noticed that WOTO ran with TM's attitude to DT's sex offences and red's stuff earlier on trident whoopsies.
TM's not really being a very good sister is she.

woman12345, I thought you were referring to the US not the UK. I thought, yeah that's America for you. But UK?!

Woman married is raped by husband/partner and forced to go through with pregnancy. He then fucks off and leaves her after abusing her for years when the child is much older and is left with three kids and is faced with proving that the third child was the product of a rape that she didn't report at the time to an agency which has a great reputation for its caring and sensitive manner.

Or if she wants to leave partner she is more unable to because financially she want get credits, thus making it beneficial for a violent partner to rape to produce those extra children and exert even more control.

It actually incentives rape! It also creates an officially recognised status of 'rape children'.

What fucking planet are these reptiles from?

Oh no it's Emily Thornberry,(shadow defence) isn't it? this is what should be an open goal for Labour.
Security and economy, you'd think it would lead to vote of no confidence, in normal times?

Lovely Vaclav Havel, great quotes there, thanks.

yerp

Looks like I'll keep my walking boots polished and ready to go.

For 10 years they have been systematically de -legalising women:
work rights, pension rights, housing rights, equal pay rights, age rights; domestic abuse rights; the Ched Evans rape case; look at how they treat us in childbirth.

I honestly think if any one's planning a divorce, I would do it sooner rather than later, because I am sure divorce law will be changed to discriminate further against those of who have had to be unwaged carers. Big pay out cases have already started to go against women.

You know it's normal under totalitarianism. It's just seemed a bit rude to say anything about it.

BigChoc we need another slogan for Teresa May's 'rape child' gift to the Women's March.

I'm too bloody angry to be calm and reasonable.
How DARE they.
And burying the news, learning from the Blair govt who thought 9/11 was a good day for it.
Heartless scum.

This isn't very clever and it may offend, but it's my immediate reaction:

If your 3rd child is from rape, Theresa May just screwed you again

RTB: Rape Children ...

But this isn't news. It was highlighted at the time (and I saw Bridget Christie tell a dumbfounded audience that this is exactly what the new regulations meant. Quite a few chose to disbelieve, if the post show signing was anything to judge by (general response was "but they would never do something like that ....")

Regarding Trump ... surely we all know the maxim about if you make a lie big enough, and tell it often enough, people will believe it ?

Ironically, the existence of the internet makes such strategies possible. Because we believe we have unparalleled access to news sources, we are far more credulous than (say) a communist era Russian who could only read what TASS approved .....

It's just evil, isn't it BigChoc , your anger gives me energy.

Just emailed Rachel Krys, co-director of the End Violence Against Women coalition at admin*@evaw*.org.uk, and asked for contacts to protest this law, will let you know what she says.

Ironically, the existence of the internet makes such strategies possible. Because we believe we have unparalleled access to news sources, we are far more credulous than (say) a communist era Russian who could only read what TASS approved .....

We think we're more sophisticated than we are, and we're way too trusting of what we believe to be 'reliable' news sources such as the Guardian and BBC, who can be fed falsehoods as much as anyone.

If the last 100 years have taught us anything it is that we must question, scrupulously everything we are told by government and media, and analyse the sources ourselves.

www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/the-death-of-the-british-dream
The Death of the British Dream
How Theresa May got away with an extreme policy that few ever really wanted.

Carwyn Jones AM/AC ‏*@AMCarwyn*
The Tories saying in the Sunday Times that we sell too much to the EU. Chilling words for our farmers. We'll defend them if the Tories won't

George Magnus ‏*@georgemagnus1*

1. UK/US free trade agreement (fta) causing bit of a stir, so let's see where this goes. Lots of legal delays and notifications likely
2. Speed though is for druggies. In trade it's irrelevant. Content and advantage is imp in negot'ns to minimise regulations
3. America is going to be more protectionist as per Trump inauguration speech and WH website. Will want to cut UK trade surplus,no question
4. US will want concessions in food as uk loses eu subs, pharma incl NHS, finance as City loses EU advantages, and won't want our cars I
5. We will strike agreement prob but no ticket to sunny uplands in protectionist climate and as bilateral FTA deals globally falling fast
6. Big wealthier countries much happier with regional deals than bilat. Reasons:geog/ supply chains/ multiple partner deal in complex issues
7. US has NAFTA tho up for renegot'n. Plus 20 fta's. Only sig countries are Oz, Korea, Israel. China has RCEP + 14, incl Oz, Korea, Switz
8. EU has 27 fta's incl Canada, Korea, Israel, turkey, but EU biggest FTA in world/biggest exporter.So UK leaving it bound to be disruptive
9. Of course May see Trump and get agreement in principle to start FTA asap. But this is damage limitation, not swashbuckling advance

10. Finally, just cos we might get a trump blessing for FTA doesn't say a thing about whether it'll be a good deal or how it cd compensate

is faced with proving that the third child was the product of a rape that she didn't report at the time to an agency which has a great reputation for its caring and sensitive manner.

The only thing I could think of here is to report it to some one who has a duty of confidentiality, so a medical professional, or possibly a priest. Otherwise God help us. We used to talk about how the Best Man for the Job is a Woman, until Maggie Thatcher came along and let the side down. Now Theresa May is trying to be Thatcher Mark II. I disliked Thatcher intently but she had an ability which May has made clear that she completely lacks.

I told ds1 that may was worse than thatcher
He looked at me with disbelief
I have seen nothing it make me think I am correct

The only thing I could think of here is to report it to some one who has a duty of confidentiality, so a medical professional...

If you report a rape to a medical professional and the rapist has on-going access to you and your children (including an unborn child) it will NOT remain confidential but will be reported to Children's Social Care as a child protection issue..

The article refers to the conscious and constitutional insult of her announcing EU leaving intentions at Lancaster House, and not in parliament. I heard reports of the expressions of the diplomats listening to her ranged from nausea to fear. Also heard that business people in Davos were terrified, off the record about Trump, and wouldn't have photographs taken with Chinese delegates for fear of upsetting him.

The article makes it clear that the parliamentary numbers don't add up to collude with this 'coup'. This could be debated and ameliorated. Trump's autarkic policies could be challenged and amended.

Since when have humans become such wimps?

If a bunch of teenagers and mums with pushchairs can stop most of the west end for 4hours while on the march, when god knows we have other things we need to get on with, why the fuck can't everyone grow some and challenge both of them.

The only thing I could think of here is to report it to some one who has a duty of confidentiality, so a medical professional, or possibly a priest.

That is exactly what has been proposed - that divulging to your doctor is enough; and there's no time limit for it either - so if you subsequently split up with a partner who had forced pregnancies upon you, you can report it to GP & that is enough for you to be approved for tax credits for more than 2 children.
It is confidential & not put on your claim at all.

Our bigger difficulty might be that the truth is that improved technology and globalisation mean that there will not be a return of secure working class jobs. The gig economy might be here to stay. An ageing population might mean relative poverty for those that are working to fund health services or cuts to the NHS for the elderly.

The truth might be that our economy is relatively in decline and other economies (e.g. China) might be growing.

The truth might be unpalatable. That makes lies more appealing for some. I think the technical term is cognitive dissonance.

But rape is a legal, not a medical definition, isn't it? What jurisdiction should a GP have over the status of a criminal offence? What happens to the status of the crime if it becomes something women are supposed to confess (?) in confidence to medics or priests, god help us.
At this rate, rape will disappear as a crime.

A crime is committed.
Convict the criminal.
A social welfare system exists to support those who cannot support themselves.
Give the mothers (and therefore the children) the care and money they need and do not humiliate them in the process.