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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

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Thread gallery
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Peregrina · 21/01/2017 22:30

How soon will the cross-party MPs cave in? I suspect this depends on how marginal their seats are - Tories in Remain constituencies, with a slenderish majority and postbags telling them that they have sold out, are turncoats and appeasers, may well be getting hot under the collar now. Yes, Nicola Blackwood, you could be one of these.

Lico Maybe you should have forgiven DD for not doing her homework, since this march was history in the making - to make sure that she knuckled down tomorrow?

BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 22:30

oops - German Manufacturers Organisation < translation fail >

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 22:32

lala I have been hoping for this for 7 months, I so hope it's true, and it works.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 22:34

Amazing info about Women of Liberia peace movement. Thanks, woman I didn't know about those brave Christian & Muslim women organising together

user1484653592 · 21/01/2017 22:42

"Thousands of Muslim and Christian women from various classes mobilized their efforts, staged silent nonviolence protests that included a sex strike and the threat of a curse." Beautiful.

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 22:47

Liberia is a fascinating country, which has since then had a female prime minister Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and another hopeful beacon from Africa is Sierra Leone, and even Rwanda. At a time when the west seems to be in crisis, it's worth looking at places which have come through utter devastation and civil war to something much better.
Maybe they have a much wiser and fun full way of coming to terms with horrors. I remember a Rwandan woman on Woman's Hour talking about surviving the butchery and going on to not just live, but "live!"

HesterThrale · 21/01/2017 22:51

I'm struggling to keep up with this thread this week - I've just about caught up! I don't think this has been posted:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/21/cross-party-mps-group-plots-to-halt-extreme-brexit?client=safari

A group of MPs from all parties is plotting to thwart TM's attempts to drive through a hard Brexit.

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 22:55

I can't find the reference, Big Choc you might have info on this, I'm sure German women staged a successful house work strike. If for one day, that idiot in a wig had to fend for himself, can you imagine! I bet he can barely dress himself unaided. And the Mogg person, imagine him cleaning his own mess. It would make a really good reality TV show!

Spike Lee's new film Chi raq is a pastiche of the Lysistra story from ancient Greece in which the women do a sex strike to stop a war.
www.alternet.org/gender/chi-raq-lysistrata-10-real-life-sex-strikes-generated-lots-action

SwedishEdith · 21/01/2017 23:04

Ken Clark's comments from the Guardian link

"“It is high time that the pro-Europeans got their act together,” he said. “What she [May] said about the customs union was incomprehensible. Your starting point should be to understand what a customs union is.”"

tie in with the Richard North blog www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86348

"Where there is no silence - and perhaps there should have been - is over Mrs May's comments on the EU's Customs Union. She repeats the error that full Customs Union membership prevents us from negotiating our own comprehensive trade deals. She then gets tangled up in the further misunderstanding about border controls - which lie outwith the customs union. The woman knows nothing, and has learned nothing.

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 23:04

Anyone remember Comical Ali? Trump's press secretary just held a press conference telling everyone that yesterday was the biggest inaugeration ever, and the press would be held accountable before storming off without answering any questions.

This is after trump visited the CIA stood in front of memorial for people killed in the service, went on about how there was 1.5million people at the inauguration and the press lied, then said some stuff about torture and how they had been too lenient, how next time they would raid the oil fields in Iraq and then proceeded to say how many times he's been on the cover of time magazine.

Twitter is nothing but people going on about how this was unhinged even by his standards.

Well done everyone who matched today. I think it might have hit a nerve!

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 23:05

After being uplifted by the amazing strength of these Liberian women, I then was abruptly reminded of the vicious hatred the far right displays towards those it demonises:

A stream of truly horrific racist comments (not political criticism) about Michelle Obama - gorilla, cheeta, black tranny, not American.... - below this Yahoo trivia article:

uk.news.yahoo.com/michelle-obamas-side-eye-during-072440551.html

The first 4 comments were angry at the Obamas, but then all the following were also insulting her race and / or rejoicing in a white First Lady.
These are not merely policy disagreements.

What % of the US electorate feel this visceral race hatred ?

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 23:12

Breaking news on the BBC - May is to be the first Foreign leader to go and toady up to Trump. They didn't put it in quite those terms of course.

We know where her priorities lie - sell the UK down the river.

For betting folk: any bets on who will last longest Trump or May?

SwedishEdith · 21/01/2017 23:24

Yes, indeed, well done to anyone who marched today. Number 1 item on BBC news as well.

I glanced at Ann Coulter's Twitter feed today - Jesus, some vile comments about Michelle Obama and their daughters. Which elevates the Obamas even more, in my eyes, when you think of all the racist crap they have to hear/read.

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 23:25

Not seen anything on those lines peregrina but I'll keep my eyes open

Word has it plans for protest when trump visits the UK. This might help send signal to may.

I think 2017 could be a long year of protests and strikes.

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TatianaLarina · 21/01/2017 23:28

Trump will outlast May. I think he may survive his full term (despite my impeachment fantasies). May - couple of years max.

woman12345 · 21/01/2017 23:35

Britain really is going to look a lovely prospect for doing business with: ejecting and incarcerating foreign nationals, allowing race hate crimes, and fraternising with a fascist.

Surely some MP should force a question or vote on how gruesome it is to deal with that creature. He's building trade walls, what US business is going to come here? Is it just signalling to Banks' new wave fascist party that he talked of in NYT?

I was scared the march would be dangerous today, with the febrile atmosphere online and in the press, and it was so beautifully peaceful. I honestly think that keeping actions women only, is going to be the only tactic to keep them safe in future.

Big Choc I am really worried for the personal safety of the Obamas.

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 23:43

Word has it plans for protest when trump visits the UK. This might help send signal to may.
Will definitely be there for that one.

May, I imagine, will only be gone when enough Tories realise that they will be hit in the pocket or will be a vote loser. A Tory contest always reminds me of a gladitorial contest, or a bull fight.

HesterThrale · 21/01/2017 23:47

Woman I know what you mean about the peacefulness and good humour of the march. But could you actually keep men away? Looking at the men who were there though, I'm not sure I'd want to deny them the opportunity to support women on an important cause...

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 23:49

oh and any discussion over whether Trump intends to be a dictator is now dead and buried after this evening's performance. It is just a question of how strong the US's democratic safe guards are to stop him carrying out those tendancies.

It's only day two.

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/01/2017 23:53

Woman I was worried about their safety in 2008, but assumed until now that they'd be fine once they retired.
They could move to Germany Hmm very popular here.
Colin Powell refused to try for the GOP nomination, because of fears for his family and himself - he'd have been exposed throughout GOP primaries.

re your strike question: You may be thinking of 2 womens strikes, both on International Womens Day:

Iceland 1975:
March for equal rights.
Thousands of women (from a total Iceland population then of only 218 k) didn't go to their paid jobs, do housework or childcare.
www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34602822

Germany 1994:
Protesting against tightening of abortion laws, cutting welfare services, high unemployment of women in the former East and of migrant women.
The strike was opposed by the trade unions, but women participated in marches, drums & workers strikes:
www.greenleft.org.au/content/national-womens-strike-germany

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 23:58

May is now due to meet Trump on Friday. A week can be a long time in politics, and the Supreme court judgement is due on Tuesday.

Lico · 22/01/2017 00:11

Peregrina: yes, you are totally right about DD but I was incensed!
We are booked for Monday 20th and definitely the March one. She has been on a few regarding Charlie Hebdo and Place de la Republique!!

Watching all these marches take me back to May 68. I was too young to understand but I remember the 'feelings' of anger which permeated society then.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/01/2017 00:28

Half the US voted for hate, so Trump's speech delivered to his target audience.
He spouted hatred & selfishness, them and us, every country for themselves, every person for themselves
America First.
Only a certain kind of America First. Really just Trump First

Surely shocking even to most UK Conservatives
Even to May
But he's her only escape if Brexit harms standards of living for her voters (other voters can be ignored)

So after a million strong women around the world marched today
one weak woman will crawl to Trump Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 22/01/2017 00:54

oh, but Winston Churchill's bust has now been returned to the Oval office
So I'm sure the rightwing tabloids will hail a new era of the special relationship
Previous US Presidents were suble about screwing the UK. Trumo will just grab the UK by its pussy.

He's added gold curtains to the Ocpval Office too.
Why his vulgar obsession with gold ? Hmm

Sebastian Roche*@sebroche*
BLOTUS in thief...Trump takes over @POTUS Twitter, instantly steals cover photo from Obama’s 2009 inauguration
8:13 PM - 20 Jan 2017

Chris Short*@ChrisShort*
When Bush spoke of the enemy he was referring to Al Qaeda & Taliban. When Obama spoke of the enemy he was mentioning ISIS. Trump: Americans.
4:17 AM - 21 Jan 2017

Trump, classy to the end

Kaija · 22/01/2017 00:59

"oh, but Winston Churchill's bust has now been returned to the Oval office
So I'm sure the rightwing tabloids will hail a new era of the special relationship"

This has already been cited on another thread as evidence that a favourable trade deal is imminent.

Here's hoping...

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