Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2017 13:49

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
14
Bolshybookworm · 21/01/2017 09:26

I dunno, I think I'd much rather be part of a bigger entity than shivering alone and cold on our little island whilst china, Russia and the us have a massive face off over our heads. And I would MUCH rather be aligned with the countries of Europe than any of the aforementioned.

SemiPermanent · 21/01/2017 09:33

An 'EU Army' would be a shambles.

Take it from someone who has worked alongside other EU countries within the military.

Jointery is good, and works, but it is the protection of the USA which is the real deterrent to attacks on Europe.

Trump is rightly pissed off that USA is pretty much funding NATO - and as USA don't 'need' European countries, I'm not surprised he's talked of leaving (from a businessman perspective).
It's a long overdue push for other members of NATO to actually do what they're supposed to do wrt funding their military at the correct level, instead of relying on USA to bail them out if the worst happens.

SemiPermanent · 21/01/2017 09:35

Bolshy, whilst NATO exists you have far, far greater protection than you would ever have from an EU 'army'.

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 09:44

Paul Nuttall has been confirmed in Stoke Central.

The Lib Dems have also announced their candidate. He is the same one as they stood in 2015 (bio from 2015 below) Dr Zulfiquar Ali.
m.stokesentinel.co.uk/election-2015-stoke-trent-central-candidates/story-26426278-detail/story.html
He's local and obviously his job works well for him given the current climate. Decent choice though that might take votes off him.

After Corbyn said about Scotland having the same deal as the rest of the country he also came up with this:
Jeremy Corbyn @jeremycorbyn
Lib Dems rule out working with Labour because of our Brexit stance, but would back Tories using Brexit to create a bargain basement Britain.

Words fail me. He is joining the Tories in blaming the Lib Dems. He is doing a Trump in blaming your opponent of what you are most guilty of yourself ( usually done to stop the accusation being levelled at you).

It also reveals what he is most scared of.

But Jesus. Is he on glue? How is that going to work out if he has a pile of his own MPs who share the same view as the Lib Dems? It's such a damaging position for the Labour Party. Seamus Milne has just quit the Guardian to go back to advising Corbyn. There has always been a few questions over him, and this won't help.

The chances of defections are more likely. Labour voters will see straight through this if they are Remainers. They were not swayed by such attempts in the ref because of the way they think and make decisions. Leavers who who have left supporting Labour still hate Corbyn so it won't recapture and lost vote. It's a perfect lose lose position. Genius.

Trump has also been referring to political opposition as "enemies".

This demonisation process is extremely concerning and extremely unhealthy.

OP posts:
Lico · 21/01/2017 09:45

Semi : I was joking but would not be surprised. This is one of May's big concern. In fact , (see my inks 01.07-insomniac recently), Britain and France started some sort of EU army with 5000 soldiers. Liam Fox was very much in favour then.
There is a lot more cooperation between UK and Continent that meets the eye.
Also in terms of financial contributions to NATO,since France and Germany (in 2014) were the two biggest contributors after US. (UK fourth) , it will be in May's interest to defend the EU because can you imagine two of the three biggest contributors (Germany, France) pulling out of NATO in order to put their money into an EU army instead?

I am not saying that I agree with this , I am just extrapolating😄

Lico · 21/01/2017 09:46

Sorry meant links posted at 01.07!

Badders123 · 21/01/2017 09:52

It disturbs me how much I agree with Mathew Paris lately Confused
I will be voting lib dem in the next election - and I say that as a life long labour voter
Words just fail me re corbyn

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 10:15

So if they are all attacking the LibDems does this mean that despite what the opinion polls say, they have noticed that they are all losing Local Election seats to them?

I can't work what Corbyn is on about - does he want his more moderate MPs to side with the LibDems?

Kaija · 21/01/2017 10:20

" Seamus Milne has just quit the Guardian to go back to advising Corbyn. There has always been a few questions over him, and this won't help."

Yes. He almost seems too clever to play such a pivotal role in destroying the Labour Party by accident.

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 10:33

The UK's closest military alliance is Nato.
Our nuclear capability is intertwined with the US. We are not able to operate alone without US.
Our closest intelligence is the five eyes: UK, US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
This may also be effectively compromised under a Trump administration.

Then there is our bilateral alliance with France for mutual defence. We share some of our most important hardware with them in the form of aircraft carriers. Our military capability is such that we can not operate without close cooperation. They also have nukes.

But under Trump what future does this relationship have?

We might have to make some very difficult choices here and whatever we do our defence capability will probably be weakened by both Brexit and Trump regardless.

We need both the EU and NATO for our military strength somewhat ironically because it relies on the relationships we have with both.

We have really fucked that up.

I do agree about there being some problems with EU nations and the quality and training of their army. You have only to look to how Dutch UN troops in Srebrenica reactive and how the Serbian army saw them as weak. It is arguable the situation would have played out very differently under British Command purely because of the reputation of the British Army.

But depending on how things pan out we might have no other option.

Relying solely on Trump's America could be a very dangerous game as he will be the senior partner and he may take a very aggressive role in the middle East or south Asia which we have little influence over. Blair was always criticised as being Bush's lap dog in Iraq. May with Trump will be worse. Is that what we would like to commit our troops to?

The one positive in this is although Trump's head of defence has a certain reputation he also is perhaps the one choice for Trump's administration that the Democrats didn't have too many problems with and his foreign policy seems to be much more 'traditional' than the rest of Trump's Russian fan club. If Trump wants to nuke things Mattis becomes important.

Following a U.S. Department of Defense survey that showed only 55% of American soldiers and 40% of U.S. Marines would report a colleague for abusing civilians, Mattis told U.S. Marines in May 2007 that "Whenever you show anger or disgust toward civilians, it's a victory for al-Qaeda and other insurgents." Reflecting an understanding of the need for restraint in war as key to defeating an insurgency, he added that "Every time you wave at an Iraqi civilian, al-Qaeda rolls over in its grave." from Wikipedia. He also support a two state solution for Israel and Palestine. And he has criticised Trump for saying allies are free loading and supports NATOs protection of the Baltic states.

He isn't without controversy though; he has been critised for comments that were thought to encourage a lack of discipline and he views ISIS as essentially just Iran (this is interesting in its own right due to Russia's military relationship with Iran) and this is thought to have lead to problems with Obama.

It is difficult to see how Trump and Mattis are going to fit together.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 10:41

www.thesun.co.uk/news/2668829/copeland-by-election-labour-ukip-paul-nuttall/
The Sun reporting that senior Labour figures think they will come 4th in Stoke and they are being squeezed by everyone.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 10:43

Sorry that's Copeland not Stoke.

OP posts:
whatwouldrondo · 21/01/2017 10:54

Going out on a limb here but Trump was sent away to military college by parents who were too self absorbed to discipline him. Perhaps the military are the only figures of authority he could respect?

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 10:56

Difference between reporting in the Telegraph (will be in the low 30 according to polling) and the Sun (could come 4th) of Labour insider information in Copeland is curious.

You have to wonder who they are trying to pitch the story to and which voters they are trying to motivate. (Its not Labour).

I'm wondering if the Guardian / Independent will report this and if so how they will frame it.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 11:09

BBC Northampton ‏*@BBCNorthampton*
Breaking News: President Trump is injured in arm by gunfire #Inauguration
2:52 AM - 21 Jan 2017

Yes this is a verified account. No its not true.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 11:14

About that Australia Free Trade Deal...

www.itv.com/news/2017-01-21/britain-will-have-to-relax-immigration-rules-for-australians-if-it-wants-free-trade-deal/
Britain 'will have to relax immigration rules' for Australians if it wants free trade deal

So that's Australia and India and the EU who equate movement of people with Trade.

Who'd have thought.

OP posts:
Peregrina · 21/01/2017 11:20

The Sun saying that Labour could come 4th reminds me of a certain promise on a red bus, where it was apparently that we could give this amount, not that we would.

I know I shouldn't go on about by elections because they don't provide a true picture, but UKIP haven't been doing well in those either. Just looking at the results from the last few weeks:
Bromsgrove - 3rd place to the Tory winner
Three Rivers - 4th
Sunderland - 3rd
Dover - no candidate in what should be prime UKIP territory
Even Blackburn with Darwen, which should be another fertile place for UKIP - came second to the Labour winner.

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 11:26

FoM for Australians - but of course, that's OK - they will be White after all.

howabout · 21/01/2017 11:34

If you were a Stoke Labour Remainer you would need to be happy with the prospect of a UKIP victory before you voted Lib/Dem surely?

SwedishEdith · 21/01/2017 11:38

www.salon.com/2017/01/20/newt-gingrich-wants-to-fire-federal-employees-who-voted-for-clinton/#.WINGJDP-9zM.twitter

"The only risk, Gingrich later noted to the New York Times, is that entering the White House and instantly slashing a federal agency’s permanent staff will likely lead employees “to find ways to sabotage each new cabinet secretary as soon as they walk through the door.”

Offering perhaps the most nakedly political argument for firing federal employees, Gingrich said, “ all those bureaucrats overwhelmingly voted for Clinton. There won’t be any real cooperation until we change federal law so we can fire them .”"

Gulp - if accurate.

SwedishEdith · 21/01/2017 11:43

Father issues for both Farage and Trump.

Farage, "A 2012 BBC Radio 4 profile described Guy Farage as an alcoholic who left the family home when Nigel was five years old."

And "Trump was sent away to military college by parents who were too self absorbed to discipline him."

TuckersBadLuck · 21/01/2017 11:47

So that's Australia and India and the EU who equate movement of people with Trade.

And Canada.

I was wondering about the status of existing trade deals after Brexit. Take the EU's deal with Korea for example, can we just 'inherit' that deal automatically? I've always assumed that we'd have to start again from scratch but is that correct?

If we do lose these deals then was the trade we have by virtue of access to these trading partners included in the figures we have for the trade we do with the EU?

Peregrina · 21/01/2017 11:58

If you were a Stoke Labour Remainer you would need to be happy with the prospect of a UKIP victory before you voted Lib/Dem surely?

I know people in this boat - although in a neighbouring constituency. I think they would vote Labour to keep UKIP out above LibDem for Remain.

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 12:00

howabout, my point exactly. Most LD voters in Stoke will think twice at the sight of Paul Nuttall and vote tactically.

Do you think the US also equate FoM with trade? That would be an interesting one.

Take the EU's deal with Korea for example, can we just 'inherit' that deal automatically? I've always assumed that we'd have to start again from scratch but is that correct?

No you have to renegotiate those too. So whilst we are negotiating the terms of leaving the EU and our new trade deal with the EU we will have to renegotiate our other deals with the rest of the world. Oh wait, no we can't do that because EU rules mean we are not free to do this until after we leave.

In theory this means that come Brexit Day, regardless of our EU trade status our trade status with EVERYONE ELSE we trade with, is also potentially screwed.

In practice we probably will be given leave to work this out, but threatening trade wars with the EU might not be a smart move since countries who trade with the EU will want to keep the EU happier than us simply because of the size of the trading area. If the EU decide to be difficult, it doesn't just affect our trade with them, but the rest of the world.

We would be back on WTO rules with everyone. Assuming of course we are WTO members...

Its all so easy peasy isn't it?

Mind you Don Trump might be nice to us and give us an offer we can not refuse...

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/uk-independence-party/news/82578/ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-stand-stoke

Politics Home also have another Labour Source saying something completely different to the Telegraph and the Sun. Well how about that... didn't see that coming...

Meanwhile, Labour sources have rubbished claims that their canvass returns in Copeland show their support is in freefall.

According to the Daily Telegraph, the party has lost one-third of its voters since the 2015 election, when Mr Reedretained his seat with a 2,500 majority.

One insider told PoliticsHome: "It's bollocks. Our returns have been consistently good."

I've already laid my hat in the ring about which I think is closest to the reality. I think they are shitting their pants over Copeland.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 21/01/2017 12:03

Kevin Schofield ‏**@PolhomeEditor**
Labour source denies party heading for Copeland defeat: "It's bollocks. Our returns have been consistently good."

Tim Shipman ‏*@ShippersUnbound*
@PolhomeEditor @benrileysmith This is already a clusterf* of expectation management from all sides. I don't believe any of it

Hahahaha!

OP posts:
Swipe left for the next trending thread