Surprised it was only 52%

[Corialanusburt]

Just driving past Events City watching people streaming in for a caravanning show and thought Brexit.
This got me thinking about the many groups who might represent the demographic: small business owners, many Tory voters, the disenfranchised, people who just think that the EU is not for us.
It made me wonder how on earth remain actually achieved 48%.

And it's funny how the Brexit crew can make 48% (I.e. almost half) look far smaller a proportion of the population than it actually is :(

The British have spoken! Really? Well half of them ...

When you read Tim Shipman's book All Out War about the Referendum campaigns, it's amazing Remain got to 48% - they were so incompetent....and complacent. The Labour party have a lot to answer for in particular - they did not put their backs into it, and in fact some would say certain Labour party members actively tried to thwart the campaign......

I think if they re ran the referendum now, leave would win by a much, much larger percentage. Project fear really went to town with its predictions, now they haven't come to pass many more people will be for brexit.

I think if you ran the referendum now then the vote would overwhelmingly be to remain. By 60:40

Remember Scitlabd and NI voted to remain.

I can't believe a majority of the voting population would stick with Leave now that the price ordinary people will have to pay is becoming clearer. As for the actual result: I suppose it depends where you are when you're looking around. I live on a council estate with a huge Leave majority, if posters in windows and talk on the bus is anything to go by. The Remainers we know tend to be students and people in professional workplaces. So I can see OP's viewpoint from that perspective.

Leave won

We will exit

We will be free

What's not to like

I believe the turnout was 72.2 per cent. So your 52% is actually 37.5%ish.

Project fear really went to town with its predictions, now they haven't come to pass many more people will be for brexit.

We haven't actually left yet.

I think a lot of remainder - myself included - felt that what's done is done.

I'll stay in the UK as long as it suits me for family reasons and then I'll leave for somewhere better. That simple.

Essential - I think if people can't be arsed to vote, and that's their democratic choice, then we can assume they didn't care and would have been happy with either outcome. Therefore, I think it is a 52/48 result of people who could be bothered to engage and vote.

Hmm I dunno. Most of the people I know are remainers and they haven't changed their minds. I was always on the fence and voted remain, but actually I was pleasantly surprised by TM's speech on Tues. I hated the idea of Britain going begging for crumbs from the EU table while that arsehole Juncker told us to fuck off. I like this positive, bullish stance much more!

I didn't think Leave had a hope in hell. My assumption - after a shoddy campaign from both sides - was that people would vote for the status quo, anything else being too scary.

I was reading some forums last night out of interest, which pre dated the referendum, and there was a tiny minority expecting leave to win. Really, virtually no one expected the result.

As a leave voter, I'm pleased, but the whole thing is a shambles. I would be very interested in how it is all portrayed in the future.

Throughthick - I agree with you. When we were going through the referendum that's what I thought. Read Tim Shipman's book and you will see why Leave won. They were more disciplined, on message, tactical (once they'd got rid of Farage and co) - compare to Remain which was so Cameron led that other parties didn't want to join in (and support the Tories) and Labour, or more accurately, Corbyn and McDonnell were deliberately unhelpful - closet Leavers, meaining Labour voters could be influenced by UKIP. Remain didn't have the organisation. It was a fascinating insight into campaigning.

Christmas it was a shame for Cameron that he didn't read it! I thought he was doing alright as PM up until the referendum, but his arrogance over that - when he should have learnt a lesson from the Scottish Indy ref - was breathtaking! He just thought he had it in the bag. Corbyn played his part too, as an obvious although silent brexiter. Was the book written after the referendum or before?

Throughthick - it was written afterwards, but the access the author got was amazing, to all parties. I think he's the political editor of the Sunday Times (don't hold me to that). It is very readable - lots of OMG! moments!!

the disenfranchised

OP do you mean like the 3 million EU citizens that live in the UK and had no right to vote in a referendum that could change their lives? Ditto for UK citizens living abroad long-term.

Maybe I misunderstood what disenfranchised means? Or maybe you did?

We will be free
What's not to like

How does the EU limit your freedom at the moment? Brexit will limit my freedom to live and work in 27 countries. Our economy will suffer. Our universities will suffer. Medical and scientific collaboration we enjoy as EU members will be more difficult. The pound has taken a bashing. We are behaving like xenophobic arrogant neighbours.

I have taken the result very badly - which has surprised me - given I am not usually politically engaged. I think there are 2 reasons for this- 1) ties and past life in Europe b) my children. We have the 6th strongest economy in the world at the moment. Why would we throw that away and take an enormous whopping gamble with our children's future, when our instinct is to protect them?

I was a remainer. I'm pretty sure the OP is right that a second vote would yield the same answer, and maybe even a greater majority for leave. But the big question is not what people would vote now, but what they would vote in three or five years time. It is inconceivable to me (and every economist I have read) that the net effect of leaving the EU will be positive economically. The point of the vote was that politics trumped economics. Overall, the country cares more about control than affluence. So we can say exactly who we want to let into the country, but the penalty for that is that we have a smaller economy (less inward investment, lower exports to our largest trading partners, risks to key wealth generators like banking and pharmaceuticals etc) and consequently lower public expenditure on services such as the NHS.

I think that was a bad trade. I also think it was a very complex question that was not really appropriate for the electorate to evaluate because most of us (me included) didn't have the time and information required to answer the question effectively.

I am resigned to us leaving. I hope it's a success but I worry about the effect on the economy and for funding for the NHS and other services.

Personally, leaving the EU won't affect me much because I am lucky enough to have private healthcare and don't really need the support of the state otherwise. What I find frustrating is the crowing from leave voters who don't have a clue what the implications are of us leaving the EU. I expect many of them will be damaged by it through cut backs in government services. I sincerely hope I'm wrong though.

I was a remainer. I'm pretty sure the OP is right that a second vote would yield the same answer, and maybe even a greater majority for leave. But the big question is not what people would vote now, but what they would vote in three or five years time. It is inconceivable to me (and every economist I have read) that the net effect of leaving the EU will be positive economically. The point of the vote was that politics trumped economics. Overall, the country cares more about control than affluence. So we can say exactly who we want to let into the country, but the penalty for that is that we have a smaller economy (less inward investment, lower exports to our largest trading partners, risks to key wealth generators like banking and pharmaceuticals etc) and consequently lower public expenditure on services such as the NHS.

I think that was a bad trade. I also think it was a very complex question that was not really appropriate for the electorate to evaluate because most of us (me included) didn't have the time and information required to answer the question effectively.

I am resigned to us leaving. I hope it's a success but I worry about the effect on the economy and for funding for the NHS and other services.

Personally, leaving the EU won't affect me much because I am lucky enough to have private healthcare and don't really need the support of the state otherwise. What I find frustrating is the crowing from leave voters who don't have a clue what the implications are of us leaving the EU. I expect many of them will be damaged by it through cut backs in government services. I sincerely hope I'm wrong though.

Well this is depressing. The following quoted from George Soros' speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos:

“At the moment the people in the UK are in denial. The current economic situation is not as bad as was predicted and they live in hope. But as the currency depreciates, and inflation will be the driving force, this will lead to declining living standards.

“This is going to take some time, but when it does happen they’ll realise that they are earning less than before because wages won’t rise as fast as the cost of living.

“The divorce is going to take a very long time. It’s much harder to divorce than to get married, so I think the desire for rapprochement will develop, and in theory or maybe even in practice you could have a situation in 2019 or 2020 when Britain will leave the EU, because it does have to take place, but they could leave on a Friday but join over the weekend and have the new arrangement in place in Monday morning.”

And well said noneedforasitter. I agree with you.

Iamwendy I agree. Many people voted remain out of fear and and immediate impact on living standards which have not come to pass.

The Labour party have a lot to answer for in particular - they did not put their backs into it

Well Frank Field and Gisella did a good job, as did other Labour Leave supporters but the core of Labour is of course also Leave - so which part did you expect to speak out for Remain? Also of course Labour were tied out of shame because we all know who led to the mess....Blair.

Personally, Brexit will curtail my freedoms - very significantly. I do not understand why any British voter thinks Brexit will, overall, increase his or freedoms. On the contrary: you will be stuck on a small, cold, overcrowded island with creaking infrastructure and no socially benevolent EU to protect you from an autocratic right wing government and corporate greed. Good luck with that.

Over 45s were the biggest group voting out.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36619342