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Brexit

Westministers: Boris and May give us the Brexit Leeming Plan.

995 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2017 15:17

Theresa May has made a speech.

It’s a wish list for hard core Brexiteers. It’s a large corporate executive’s wet dream for exploitation.

Even requests for a white paper as recommended by the Brexit Committee have been ignored. Thus meaning there is no chance for proper scrutiny. Plus whilst on the one hand parliament have been told they will have a vote on the end deal, this is merely slight of hand, with Davis stating that if parliament vote against this, then we will leave the EU without a deal in a chaotic exit. Thus making the vote an exercise with a gun to parliament's head.

Workers Rights and the Welfare State die with Brexit. Even the precious NHS. Especially the precious NHS once its been stole off to the highest American bidder.

May is being lobbied by her hard right and to save her next she listens only to them. She has no interest in listening to anyone else. The demographic and voting patterns favour her to head this direction. There is nothing to be gained for her personally by doing anything else.

She is already laughing her head off in glee at the collapse of the NI assembly. It plays right to her agenda.

Under the wheels of the bus go the JAMs, under go the disenfranchised who rarely vote but came out in force for the referendum, under go single mothers, under go the disabled, under go those with mental health concerns who struggle with already bureaucratic systems set up to ‘catch them out’, under go the EU immigrants especially those who have families here and may not have equal rights in future, under go British Citizens living abroad who might find themselves without healthcare or pensions, under go our Human Rights and any chance of challenging the state’s authority and interference in our every day lives, under go small business who will drown in red tape, under go Scotland and NI.

Yet this is ‘for the children’ or ‘the grandchildren’. Its spineless and cynical and offers nothing for those currently able to vote but under the age of 40. Won't you think of the children? Its fine if you are already retired and have a nice little pension isn't it?

The National Interest? This is a foreign concept. Probably an EU one.

The Baby Boomers are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. The young are unlikely to have a welfare state in a few years and are already net contributors. They have now been robbed of the choice over their future and in patronising tones effectively told they are irrelevant.

And of course Uncle Donald is a fan. You can almost see his vampire fangs reading to get his teeth into the UK and suck the life blood out of it.

It is a horror show.

Its all about selling Theresa May to the Express and the Mail and they love it. Her speech is to set the scene of how committed she is and to lay the blame at anyone who challenges her. It attacks the EU and paints them as the aggressor who are there to prevent poor little Britain from getting what it wants. If Brexit goes wrong, it was all an anti-British plot. Not a collective self inflicted brain haemorrhage. She's gone full on Farage and out Farages Farage.

This all comes perhaps a week before the Supreme Court Ruling.

Funny timing eh? No not really.

It’s a pre-emptive strike.

What on earth will they say? Will this merely allow May to dismantle our current legal system by gathering support for a General Election Manifesto that outlines its demise? Thus extending the mandate for Brexit even further. Probably.

I fear that the courts may only serve to strengthen May in the long run due to the lack of opposition and a Labour party that is imploding, with dozens of its MPs being rumoured to be looking for employment elsewhere. I fear that without a media able to effectively hold May to account in the face of her media baron supporters.

Our only hope really lies within the Conservative party itself and whether May is able to keep a lid on the various on going power struggles. The only trouble is that one of those challengers is a certain Brutus in the form of Mr Gove. I struggle to work out who would be worse; Gove or May. And of course this only highlights the issue that who else is there with in the Conservatives who isn’t a reptile? Even Arron Banks commentated that during the referendum he found Labour MPs nice people and the Conservatives unpleasant almost to a man. High praise indeed.

Meanwhile in America, NATO is obsolete and so Europe will have to consider an EU Army and Russia is firmly getting its claws in. And yeah, just Donald Trump. That Project Fear thing was just fake scaremongering wasn't it? Right? Right?

sigh

What on earth can possible stop this insanity? Not necessarily stop Brexit, but at least stop the PURE INSANITY.

OP posts:
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DebbieDownersGiveItARest · 19/01/2017 12:54

TheMartiansAreInvadingUs Thu 19-Jan-17 12:23:02

We know that in many cases there was zero planning or zero research on the consequences of all the actions you speak of. If there had been we would never ever be in this mess.

Do I need to trot out Blairs projection of Fourteen Thousand immigrants from Poland - possibly wanting to come to our Island?
You also raise one of the issues I have with our membership of the EU, we can't do it!

Other countries seem happy to fight for what they want - Hungary etc has had no issues in putting up fences and pissing off the other countries,....we however seem to toe the line every time we cant work within it - to our benefit.

Suppermummy02 · 19/01/2017 12:56

would you like to tell us what 'Our vision of the UK is'
Whether you like it or not TM is the PM and therefore she lays out what our (the UK's) vision of the future is. Until such time as someone else gets elected in her stead.

On our own, nobody is going to care that much and we will have to take what we are given rather than make decisions about what we can do
A very negative view, I always preferred quality over quantity and I think the UK has a lot to offer the world. Seeing as countries are reported as lining up to do deals with us it seems we are sitting pretty.

as they aren't stupid they are not going to give us a deal with is better than eu membership
we are not asking for a deal that is better than EU membership, we are asking for the same as everyone else gets.

WHY the idea of Brexit can only be the one from TM
I agree with your sentiment but as our PM she has to bring together everyone views and translate them into a deal that works and can be negotiated. Which hopefully she will do during the negotiations. This idea or a hard or soft Brexit doesn't exist, its a post referendum invention of those who don't want to leave. Soft Brexit is nicely expressed code for staying in the EU, and hard Brexit is nasty code actual Brexit. What TM has said is just plain and simply leaving the EU, as was decided in the vote, what else is there?

The banks are voting on her chances of having that cake with their feet
The banks are doing exactly as they did when we where deciding if we should adopt the Euro, they didn't get their way then and look what happened to London. Deja Vu

PattyPenguin · 19/01/2017 12:59

supermummy ..change the working time directive, exempt SMEs from regulation that is needed with big business

That's the ticket! Sweat the plebs! Women get pregnant - chuck 'em out! People get electrocuted / crushed / poisoned / broken falling from height - who cares?!

Peregrina · 19/01/2017 12:59

I am not entirely sure I agree with the New Statesman's analysis on Stoke. I used to live a few miles to the North - yes, it's the West Midlands but on the periphery. Quite a lot of activities are organised on a North Staffs and South Cheshire basis, so I would suggest it just tends to look towards Manchester rather than Birmingham. Interestingly enough, the previous MP, Mark Fisher, was also and Old Etonian.

I think it will very much depend on who Labour selects as a candidate and how exactly they pitch their election literature. With the state of the NHS, they would be onto a winner.

unicornsIlovethem · 19/01/2017 13:00

The normal approach to a referendum, even in this country, is to analyse the result and prepare a white paper to be voted on by both houses of parliament about how the vote in the referendum is to be given effect.

This is exactly the course followed wrt Scotland.

Instead, because TM has a bee in her bonnet about immigration and has totally failed to reduce non-EU immigration significantly (despite making life very unpleasant for people going through that process) that takes priority over absolutely everything else including £350m per week for the NHS, the Good Friday agreement, the need to actually have some tax revenue still coming in etc.

That is one reason why TM is such an abject disappointment.

DebbieDownersGiveItARest · 19/01/2017 13:00

they have considerably less clout with the other 26 EU members who have to agree any deal

German car makers are trotted out as the example of an industry needing the UK market - it saves time, instead of trotting out - wine/cheese makers from France - Italy Spain etc etc etc .

I therefore do not suspect German car makers to have much influence on Hollande but I do expect whatever France exports to us to be un happy if they cant do that any more and so on.

HashiAsLarry · 19/01/2017 13:01

we are not asking for a deal that is better than EU membership, we are asking for the same as everyone else gets.
Ah yes, the infamous not-in-the-eu-or-single-market deal that everyone not in the eu or single market gets.

Except TM is largely saying that we want everything we get from the eu deal without the pesky immigration bit and doing what you say bit and if we don't get it we will burn down your barn. Like a toddler.

Motheroffourdragons · 19/01/2017 13:02

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Motheroffourdragons · 19/01/2017 13:04

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DebbieDownersGiveItARest · 19/01/2017 13:05

Soft Brexit is nicely expressed code for staying in the EU, and hard Brexit is nasty code actual Brexit. What TM has said is just plain and simply leaving the EU, as was decided in the vote, what else is there?

YY ^^

That's the ticket! Sweat the plebs!

Like in Sports Direct or in the totally un regulated grey market areas of building, car washes etc using cheap EU labour - using people who have no concept of working rights in the first place, yeah- sweating them is what we are doing now!

squoosh · 19/01/2017 13:10

'The normal approach to a referendum, even in this country, is to analyse the result and prepare a white paper to be voted on by both houses of parliament about how the vote in the referendum is to be given effect.'

I'm still staggered that there will be no White Paper. They've clearly forgotten the amount of criticism they aimed at the SNP for their Independence White Paper not being detailed enough.

Peregrina · 19/01/2017 13:11

Whether you like it or not TM is the PM and therefore she lays out what our (the UK's) vision of the future is. Until such time as someone else gets elected in her stead.

What a prize non-answer that is. Our vision is whatever Dictator May says it is. Having just ripped up the Tory Manifesto and declined to publish a White Paper.

as our PM she has to bring together everyone views and translate them into a deal that works and can be negotiated.
Which so far she has shown absolutely no sign of doing. The Tory manifesto had a commitment to the single market. Many of her MPs voted Remain, presumably agreeing with what the Manifesto said. Where is there any evidence that she is listening to what they want?

Which hopefully she will do during the negotiations.
I don't share your hope. She has become a power crazed dictator.

DebbieDownersGiveItARest · 19/01/2017 13:13

I don't believe the loss of a small portion of a country's exports to us will make all that much of a difference to them

What you believe based on what?

Almost one in three cars, or 810,000 cars sold in Britain, come from Germany, making the British island the biggest export destination for German car producers

A nice balanced article for you Mother!

global.handelsblatt.com/companies-markets/car-industry-would-bounce-back-experts-say-548880

Trade will continue one way or the other,” said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a business professor at the Center of Automotive Research of the University of Duisburg-Essen. “I don’t believe in these economic horror scenarios. They are made for politicians but not for businesses.”

^^ business and politics don't mix

"There were trade agreements between the two before the European Union came into being"

"“The European Union would be weaker without Britain, especially when talking to China and the United States,” Mr. Wissmann said. “At the same time, Great Britain would be standing alone, facing a much larger European Union.”

"All of this will only be temporary, and after around two years, things will be renegotiated and settled and business can go back to normal, though more slowly than today,” he added"

"Almost one in three cars, or 810,000 cars sold in Britain, come from Germany, making the British island the biggest export destination for German car producers. It is around a fifth of the total number the industry exports worldwide, according to the German car association, VDA. Britain reached a new market high of 2.6 million car registrations in 2015 – 86 percent of which were not produced in the UK"

"Germany’s export market could also take a hit, but “the German auto industry above all,” Andreas Meyer-Schwickerath, head of the British chamber British Chamber of Commerce in Germany, told news agency DPA earlier this week.

PattyPenguin · 19/01/2017 13:14

Debbie and Uber and Deliveroo and Yodel and Amazon and Hermes... I could go on.

Which sweat the natives as well as workers from outside the UK.

The UK government could have changed all this when we were in the EU - in fact that would have been far more in keeping with the traditional European model.

If you think that's going to stop once we leave the EU, think again. It's going to get a whole lot worse.

TuckersBadLuck · 19/01/2017 13:17

I therefore do not suspect German car makers to have much influence on Hollande but I do expect whatever France exports to us to be un happy if they cant do that any more and so on.

Again, only 7.3% of France's exports come to the UK. If they lose half of that because of import tariffs I suspect there'd be a Gallic shrug as they investigated what new opportunities had arisen due to imports from the UK now being subject to border controls and tariffs. They might even consider, for instance, whether the production of the next generation Renaults, Nissans and Dacias would be better off taking place inside the EU, rather than outside.

squoosh · 19/01/2017 13:17

The Mike Ashleys of this world will flourish in Brexit Britain. So that's nice for them...

Motheroffourdragons · 19/01/2017 13:19

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cakeycakeface · 19/01/2017 13:23

Martians Le Pen has consistently promised a referendum on 'Frexit' if she wins. I confess I've not read a lot about the French elections, but my impression has been the debate is couched in arguments about needing to 'control borders', as opposed to 'we have too many immigrants', as it is here. (Especially wrt terrorist attacks). But if the push for EU reform was to allow member states to 'control their own borders', it could amount to a solution that fits UK and French concerns. And then there's Hungary, who doesn't seem to give a fuck and controls its borders regardless. I just wonder if FoM cornerstone could be crumbling.

Motheroffourdragons · 19/01/2017 13:25

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prettybird · 19/01/2017 13:29

Debbie is a little, shall we say, economic in her quoting of Vissman :

""The UK is an important market for the German car industry, but the cohesion of the EU27 and with it the single market is more important for this industry," he said."

....puts a somewhat different slant on it

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN12H0NW?client=safari

PattyPenguin · 19/01/2017 13:32

cakeycakeface I don't think Hungary is bothered by FoM for citizens of EU member states.

Its fences have been put up along the borders with Serbia and Croatia in order to keep out refugees and migrants from the Middle East and North Africa.

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2017 13:33

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/that_was_a_speech_not_a_plan_labour_will_hold_may_to_account_every_step_of_the_way_1_4855461
That was a speech... not a plan – Labour will hold May to account every step of the way

Flip flop, flip flop.
Eh? I can't keep up with Keir Starmer anymore than Jeremy Corbyn at the moment.

www.ft.com/content/24fe34cf-45db-31fb-a385-e2fd8514c58f
Has the EU won the first round of Brexit talks before they’ve started?

David Allen Green.

He goes through the history of the UK's relationship with the EU in style.

Basically De Gaulle says "Non"

The French were right all along.

Law and policy @Lawandpolicy
We don't want international bodies with jurisdiction on disputes in trade matters, say Leavers blissfully unaware of what WTO actually does.

George Peretz QC ‏*@GeorgePeretzQC*
Or ISDS, or arbitration panel in Canada/EU deal. Basic point: "sovereignty" is shades of grey, not black & white. Unless you're North Korea.

Why didn't we get offered the North Korean model as well as the Norwegian, Swiss and Canadian ones? I'm sure we'd all have jumped at that one.

Today:
Britain Elects ‏**@britainelects**

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (+3)
LAB: 31% (+2)
LDEM: 11% (-3)
UKIP: 6% (-3)
(via Ipsos Mori / this week)

Yesterday:
Britain Elects ‏**@britainelects**
Westminster VI:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-3)
UKIP: 12% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-)
(YouGov / fieldwork post-Tuesday)

Based on the popular vote from 2015 the two polls differ quite a lot:

The Ipsos Mori poll has
+269,788 CON voters
+1,618,730 Labour voters
0 LD voters
-1,618,730 UKIP voters.

What's going on with Labour /UKIP voters? Why are the pollsters having such a problem deciding which they are? Who is actually right?!

(All the pollsters in 2015 got UKIP more or less right. It was other voters they didn't do so well with).

OP posts:
squoosh · 19/01/2017 13:33

Le Pen was all about Frexit. Funny that she’s shelved the idea now she’s realised it won’t be a vote winner. The French are looking at Brexit and the French want no part of a similar mess. Her aim now is to 'renegotiate'.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/01/how-marine-le-pen-has-backed-away-frexit

cakeycakeface · 19/01/2017 13:35

I hadn't realised that. Her negotiating position is probably strengthened by Brexit.

Peregrina · 19/01/2017 13:41

The polls are baffling - at the ballot box in Local Elections the Tories are doing worst, and the Lib Dems picking up by far the greatest number of seats. I know that Local Elections are not a reliable indication, but they do show a trend. May's speech of Tuesday caused an immediate increase in members in one of the local Lib Dem branches.