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Brexit

Westministers: Boris and May give us the Brexit Leeming Plan.

995 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2017 15:17

Theresa May has made a speech.

It’s a wish list for hard core Brexiteers. It’s a large corporate executive’s wet dream for exploitation.

Even requests for a white paper as recommended by the Brexit Committee have been ignored. Thus meaning there is no chance for proper scrutiny. Plus whilst on the one hand parliament have been told they will have a vote on the end deal, this is merely slight of hand, with Davis stating that if parliament vote against this, then we will leave the EU without a deal in a chaotic exit. Thus making the vote an exercise with a gun to parliament's head.

Workers Rights and the Welfare State die with Brexit. Even the precious NHS. Especially the precious NHS once its been stole off to the highest American bidder.

May is being lobbied by her hard right and to save her next she listens only to them. She has no interest in listening to anyone else. The demographic and voting patterns favour her to head this direction. There is nothing to be gained for her personally by doing anything else.

She is already laughing her head off in glee at the collapse of the NI assembly. It plays right to her agenda.

Under the wheels of the bus go the JAMs, under go the disenfranchised who rarely vote but came out in force for the referendum, under go single mothers, under go the disabled, under go those with mental health concerns who struggle with already bureaucratic systems set up to ‘catch them out’, under go the EU immigrants especially those who have families here and may not have equal rights in future, under go British Citizens living abroad who might find themselves without healthcare or pensions, under go our Human Rights and any chance of challenging the state’s authority and interference in our every day lives, under go small business who will drown in red tape, under go Scotland and NI.

Yet this is ‘for the children’ or ‘the grandchildren’. Its spineless and cynical and offers nothing for those currently able to vote but under the age of 40. Won't you think of the children? Its fine if you are already retired and have a nice little pension isn't it?

The National Interest? This is a foreign concept. Probably an EU one.

The Baby Boomers are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. The young are unlikely to have a welfare state in a few years and are already net contributors. They have now been robbed of the choice over their future and in patronising tones effectively told they are irrelevant.

And of course Uncle Donald is a fan. You can almost see his vampire fangs reading to get his teeth into the UK and suck the life blood out of it.

It is a horror show.

Its all about selling Theresa May to the Express and the Mail and they love it. Her speech is to set the scene of how committed she is and to lay the blame at anyone who challenges her. It attacks the EU and paints them as the aggressor who are there to prevent poor little Britain from getting what it wants. If Brexit goes wrong, it was all an anti-British plot. Not a collective self inflicted brain haemorrhage. She's gone full on Farage and out Farages Farage.

This all comes perhaps a week before the Supreme Court Ruling.

Funny timing eh? No not really.

It’s a pre-emptive strike.

What on earth will they say? Will this merely allow May to dismantle our current legal system by gathering support for a General Election Manifesto that outlines its demise? Thus extending the mandate for Brexit even further. Probably.

I fear that the courts may only serve to strengthen May in the long run due to the lack of opposition and a Labour party that is imploding, with dozens of its MPs being rumoured to be looking for employment elsewhere. I fear that without a media able to effectively hold May to account in the face of her media baron supporters.

Our only hope really lies within the Conservative party itself and whether May is able to keep a lid on the various on going power struggles. The only trouble is that one of those challengers is a certain Brutus in the form of Mr Gove. I struggle to work out who would be worse; Gove or May. And of course this only highlights the issue that who else is there with in the Conservatives who isn’t a reptile? Even Arron Banks commentated that during the referendum he found Labour MPs nice people and the Conservatives unpleasant almost to a man. High praise indeed.

Meanwhile in America, NATO is obsolete and so Europe will have to consider an EU Army and Russia is firmly getting its claws in. And yeah, just Donald Trump. That Project Fear thing was just fake scaremongering wasn't it? Right? Right?

sigh

What on earth can possible stop this insanity? Not necessarily stop Brexit, but at least stop the PURE INSANITY.

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Kaija · 19/01/2017 09:37

A fair summary of the situation:

Westministers: Boris and May give us the Brexit Leeming Plan.
RedToothBrush · 19/01/2017 09:40

Peregrina from this:

yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/18/public-back-brexit-plan-think-eu-will-nix-it/
Public back Brexit plan but think EU will nix it

I am dubious about wording of questions but even then it does suggest that he's right about public support.

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Kaija · 19/01/2017 09:40

"Not sure where he gets the 'growing popular support' from."

Me neither. But resignation is the issue here. While there may not be growing support, I can well believe there is a growing number of people who think nothing can be done, which is why we need to keep the pressure on MPs in whatever way possible.

user1484653592 · 19/01/2017 09:42

what does JAM stand for?

Kaija · 19/01/2017 09:44

"Just about managing"

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2017 09:49

Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
PM May suggests digital media has made people more global-thinking, and so "loosened ties" of UK society

Duncan Robinson @duncanrobinson
@mattholehouse is she going to switch off the nation's router?

Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
@duncanrobinson It's a striking argument, and, without clarification, one open to easy misinterpretation

Oh yes the internet stops me campaigning on local issues and prevents me from finding out my rights, the law and find like minded individuals locally.

Seriously though it's one of the more worrying comments I've seen.

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TuckersBadLuck · 19/01/2017 09:50

However, when May went to court India, she was told visa loosening was part of it.

As it has been with the EU/Canada deal, indeed to read Canadian comments it seems that they consider access to the EU labour market is the most important thing they've achieved from the deal.

India was of the same opinion regarding the India/EU deal, the sticking point was that they wanted more access to the UK labour market - to such an extent that they indicated that an India/EU deal wouldn't be important to them if the the UK left the EU.

Peregrina · 19/01/2017 09:51

JAM - Just About Managing i.e. those people Theresa May has pledged to support. As yet, we have no details as to what this support will entail (probably because there won't be any).

Kaija · 19/01/2017 09:53

"By 47% to 38% the public do say they have confidence in Theresa May to negotiate the sort of deal she described, but they do not expect the other member states of the EU to agree to them. Only 20% of people think that the EU will agree to the Brexit deal she wants, 56% think they will not."

So people support the plan, which relies on EU agreement, while believing that there is little chance that the EU will agree to it.

So May's strategy (identified on these threads some time back I think) of putting the blame for failure on the EU seems to be working well.

missmoon · 19/01/2017 09:56

There was a YouGov poll published on the 16th showing a 39% support for hard Brexit, a 25% support for soft Brexit (various forms), and a 23% for remaining, with 13% undecided (yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/16/public-split-what-kind-brexit-they-think-governmen/). This doesn't look like support for hard Brexit to me. I think the latest poll just reflects the confusion as to what, exactly, we are trying/going to get. If I thought that we could get a comprehensive FTA, and stay in various science etc. programmes, and negotiate visa-free access, and a partial membership of the customs union (which is nonsense given WTO rules, but anyway), within the two years, then I would support that too as a compromise, although I would prefer to remain. However, I know (because I work with people who do trade modelling) that this can't be achieved, which is why I don't support the government position. Others might believe it can be achieved, so that might explain the poll results...

Bobochic · 19/01/2017 09:58

Great cartoon, Kaija Sad

Suppermummy02 · 19/01/2017 09:59

Why didn't the young buy it and vote leave then?

I don't know why some of them voted to remain, why did some of them vote to leave? What I do know is that their was a lower percentage of the young who voted than the average, so we can conclude the young were just more apathetic and didn't care either way. Maybe being in the EU was all they have ever known and Project Fear scared them more.

There is no appetite for a united states of Europe from Europeans. It was never happening

So why is the cornerstone of the club, Ever Closer Union? Why does a trade club need a parliament, 5 presidents, a currency, an army, directly collected taxes?

they have won the right to eat chlorine washed chicken and loose their workers rights. Whoop.

Not sure why anyone in the UK would vote for that Confused But why do we need an undemocratic supranational state dictating how we run our country? Whoop.

you can prop up a low tax haven instead

You mean like Singapore? Why is that a bad thing? Higher wages, longer lives, sounds horrible.

They can still have a gap year, if they aren't destitute

So destitute pupils are only allowed a gap year in Europe (nowhere else in the world?) and after Brexit they will be banned from leaving the UK? Where do you get your information from? its just fiction.

Why settle for the EU when you can be Trump's gold mine

What has trump got to do with Brexit, this is some weird post truth conspiracy theory,

Illuminati confirmed.

Yep. Hallelujah. Impressive.

missmoon · 19/01/2017 09:59

Kaija yes, that would explain it, but this is a completely irrational view, because if they think the EU won't agree, then there is something wrong with the government's strategy! The onus should be on the government to come up with a strategy that will work, given what they know the EU is likely to do.

lurkinghusband · 19/01/2017 10:00

When May went to India, the Indians I work with in India (in IT, so educated, literate and very plugged into the world) were underwhelmed to say the least. And they are the ones who will make Indias decisions.

Kaija trop vrai Sad

Kaija · 19/01/2017 10:00

Well yes, quite, missmoon.

whatwouldrondo · 19/01/2017 10:01

WW3?

What does a right wing authoritarian leader do to cement power, apart from use propaganda and create internal divisions? They stimulate industry via an arms build up to underpin their military ambitions / fight a perceived foe. Trump and his team have been making some extremely bullish statements about China on both the trade and military front, and a conventional and nuclear arms race seems inevitable. This has relevance to Brexit in economic and geo political terms, a trade war between the world's two largest economies is going to affect the rest, and Europe's position as a strong voice of liberal reason between three superpowers that are anything but is more important than ever, May will have to decide whether the UK is European or American.

Some interesting articles from the SCMP overnight (who incidentally ran only the most pathetic bit of agency reporting on May's speech way down the running order, a sign of how irrelevant the UK and its Brexit mewling has become in the face of other world events even in a former colony)

Depressing news on the military build up, posturing is going on in the Taiwan strait and the South China Sea, and we are still on Obamas watch.
app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/2062746/desktop

Plus a couple of article highlighting that whatever you may think of Xi's domestic policy he might just be the only grown up on the world stage, plus a good point about how Asia is used to dealing with thin skinned man child dictators.

www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2063247/trading-places-how-trumps-rise-has-switched-roles-us-and-china

app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/2063383/desktop

Peregrina · 19/01/2017 10:01

So May's strategy (identified on these threads some time back I think) of putting the blame for failure on the EU seems to be working well.

Yes, and that will carry her/her successor through a few years of recession. "It's not our fault, the EU woudn't co-operate." But when the trade deals with the rest of the world don't materialise, or materialise on completely dud terms, what then?

Kaija · 19/01/2017 10:02

"they have won the right to eat chlorine washed chicken and loose their workers rights. Whoop.

Not sure why anyone in the UK would vote for that"

If you voted leave and want a UK/US trade deal, you just have.

WifeofDarth · 19/01/2017 10:07

What has trump got to do with Brexit ?
Everything - Team Leave (Boris, Gove, Farage et al) made such a thing about how easy it will be to make trade deals with the rest of the world if we were out of the EU, but so far Trump is the only one who seems interested.
Trouble is, once they start negotiations with the US the Govt will not be able to control the terms, as their only option on a bad deal would be to walk away, and they won't do that as it would mean losing face.
Which means that our government will sign the deal no matter how bad it is, no matter how it impacts on UK industry, consumer safety, NHS protection....

lurkinghusband · 19/01/2017 10:09

Watching Brexit is a little like watching washing in a washing machine ... every so often you see the same familiar colours and patterns whizz past, get jumbled up, and then whizz past again.

But the pattern and colour which seems to be staining the entire wash, is the way people who voted leave did so because they knew how everyone else in the equation was going to act. Not only is this no secret - it was actually at the heart of the entire leave campaign. Every time they were challenged with a "What if this happened ...?" the response was either: "That won't happen because of " or "This is what is going to happen because of ". (And generally the subtext to "whatever" was "we're British").

So much of leave was predicated on the rest of the world following the leavers script.

Now, I don't know about other people, but regardless of the issues involved, if someone came to me with a business plan that was entirely dependent on the rest of the world doing exactly what the plan said, I might deploy a lot of brain power before deciding whether it's a Good Idea or not.

lurkinghusband · 19/01/2017 10:11

Trouble is, once they start negotiations with the US

which will be two years after A50 ...

RedToothBrush · 19/01/2017 10:15

Matthew Holehouse ‏*@mattholehouse*
This is PM's thesis on how social media has "loosened ties of society" as people join a "global community"

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RedToothBrush · 19/01/2017 10:16

Sorry didn't attach.

Westministers: Boris and May give us the Brexit Leeming Plan.
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whatwouldrondo · 19/01/2017 10:26

Supermummy What do you know about Singapore beyond the fact it has persued a tax haven strategy and has high wages? You do realise it also has the highest living costs in the world? That it is a city state that thrives on it's close trading and other ties with its neighbours and in particular is part of a regional economic and political orgtanisation that is consciously evolving based on an EU model but with Asian charateristics? That its government though on the face of it a democracy is actually cementing the power of a ruling elite (largely of Chinese ethnicity) and according to confucian values ? That the 1000s of tankers moored of its coast are not the sign of a thriving economy but actually the physical sign that its function as Asia's oil trading centre is being undermined by a worldwide glut? That Hong Kong has currently impounded a few millions of pounds worth of goods (tanks) in what is taken as a sign that China is flexing its muscles in control of its trade?

So not really a model for post Brexit Britain, especially those close regional ties?

Unless of course London does declare independence and become a city state able to stay in the EU and maintain it's close relations with it's neighbours......

Suppermummy02 · 19/01/2017 10:27

So do we really want to sacrifice 40 - 80 years worth of progress? Primarily to appease a few Tory loons?
What progress is being sacrificed? seems like the EU's continual political/economic integration was starting to anger more and more people and pushing Europe apart.
Brexit isn't about appeasing a few loons, its about appeasing the majority of the UK electorate.

Looking further forward, the Government will then have to swallow a €40-60bn bill even to begin to open trade deal talks
That's just one of those post truth facts. aka made up. aka untrue. aka a lie.