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Brexit

Westministers: Boris and May give us the Brexit Leeming Plan.

995 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/01/2017 15:17

Theresa May has made a speech.

It’s a wish list for hard core Brexiteers. It’s a large corporate executive’s wet dream for exploitation.

Even requests for a white paper as recommended by the Brexit Committee have been ignored. Thus meaning there is no chance for proper scrutiny. Plus whilst on the one hand parliament have been told they will have a vote on the end deal, this is merely slight of hand, with Davis stating that if parliament vote against this, then we will leave the EU without a deal in a chaotic exit. Thus making the vote an exercise with a gun to parliament's head.

Workers Rights and the Welfare State die with Brexit. Even the precious NHS. Especially the precious NHS once its been stole off to the highest American bidder.

May is being lobbied by her hard right and to save her next she listens only to them. She has no interest in listening to anyone else. The demographic and voting patterns favour her to head this direction. There is nothing to be gained for her personally by doing anything else.

She is already laughing her head off in glee at the collapse of the NI assembly. It plays right to her agenda.

Under the wheels of the bus go the JAMs, under go the disenfranchised who rarely vote but came out in force for the referendum, under go single mothers, under go the disabled, under go those with mental health concerns who struggle with already bureaucratic systems set up to ‘catch them out’, under go the EU immigrants especially those who have families here and may not have equal rights in future, under go British Citizens living abroad who might find themselves without healthcare or pensions, under go our Human Rights and any chance of challenging the state’s authority and interference in our every day lives, under go small business who will drown in red tape, under go Scotland and NI.

Yet this is ‘for the children’ or ‘the grandchildren’. Its spineless and cynical and offers nothing for those currently able to vote but under the age of 40. Won't you think of the children? Its fine if you are already retired and have a nice little pension isn't it?

The National Interest? This is a foreign concept. Probably an EU one.

The Baby Boomers are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. The young are unlikely to have a welfare state in a few years and are already net contributors. They have now been robbed of the choice over their future and in patronising tones effectively told they are irrelevant.

And of course Uncle Donald is a fan. You can almost see his vampire fangs reading to get his teeth into the UK and suck the life blood out of it.

It is a horror show.

Its all about selling Theresa May to the Express and the Mail and they love it. Her speech is to set the scene of how committed she is and to lay the blame at anyone who challenges her. It attacks the EU and paints them as the aggressor who are there to prevent poor little Britain from getting what it wants. If Brexit goes wrong, it was all an anti-British plot. Not a collective self inflicted brain haemorrhage. She's gone full on Farage and out Farages Farage.

This all comes perhaps a week before the Supreme Court Ruling.

Funny timing eh? No not really.

It’s a pre-emptive strike.

What on earth will they say? Will this merely allow May to dismantle our current legal system by gathering support for a General Election Manifesto that outlines its demise? Thus extending the mandate for Brexit even further. Probably.

I fear that the courts may only serve to strengthen May in the long run due to the lack of opposition and a Labour party that is imploding, with dozens of its MPs being rumoured to be looking for employment elsewhere. I fear that without a media able to effectively hold May to account in the face of her media baron supporters.

Our only hope really lies within the Conservative party itself and whether May is able to keep a lid on the various on going power struggles. The only trouble is that one of those challengers is a certain Brutus in the form of Mr Gove. I struggle to work out who would be worse; Gove or May. And of course this only highlights the issue that who else is there with in the Conservatives who isn’t a reptile? Even Arron Banks commentated that during the referendum he found Labour MPs nice people and the Conservatives unpleasant almost to a man. High praise indeed.

Meanwhile in America, NATO is obsolete and so Europe will have to consider an EU Army and Russia is firmly getting its claws in. And yeah, just Donald Trump. That Project Fear thing was just fake scaremongering wasn't it? Right? Right?

sigh

What on earth can possible stop this insanity? Not necessarily stop Brexit, but at least stop the PURE INSANITY.

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TuckersBadLuck · 18/01/2017 11:14

It's not saying that the 17m are lager louts! It's saying that as a group they're acting like 'the lager louts of Europe', on a vandalism spree for no particular reason while looking down on, or squaring up to, all the foreigners surrounding them.

TheMartiansAreInvadingUs · 18/01/2017 11:14

My last comment would be to Suppermummy if she is still around.

If I had been able to vote (which I wasn't as an eu citizen), I wouldnt have voted Leave. However, apart from my fear of the effect of this vote on my two dcs (who I fear might well loose their mum), my issue isn't about the vote and the result itself. It is about the way this whole process is happening.
Some of it is directly an issue with TM. Some of it is laid squarely on the feet of the opposition or MPs who don't dare opening their mouth to propose another alternative to what TM is proposing.

In jUne last year, the UK voted to leave the EU. It never voted to Leave the single market. It never voted for TM specific idea of what Leave means. She was a REmainer after all so never expressed what her idea of Leave meant. It also never voted to send all eu citizens back to their country or to see racist/hate crimes to be on the up. Or to have all children put on files. Or to have Bills going through that are heavily using the Henry VIII powers to modify legislation wo Parliament or the devoluted Parliaments approval. And I'm pretty sure no one voted to reopen all the wounds in NI (From my outsiders POV, I would say to reignite the civil war in NI but I appreciate that in England, it wasn't seen as a civil war but just as 'terrorists')

So YES, please do take the UK out of the EU but do it whithin the remit of a Parliamentary democracy.
The one where it's the Parliament that takes decisions, not the PM.
The ones where decisions are taken under the scrutiny of the Parliament.
Do it whilst recognising that not everyone in the country adheres to your POV and are allowed to have different ideas, even ones that are a total opposite to you.
And do it whilst remembering that the majority of the VOTERS voted to Leave, not the majority of the ELECTORATE. It's only THIRTY percent of the electorate that voted to Leave.....
And that from these people who voted to be out of the EU, some of them didn't want to be out of the common market etc.. In effect that the group Leave isn't an homogenous group of people with all the same ideas. And that should be represented in the choice the country is making on HOW to come out.

missmoon · 18/01/2017 11:17

"I can't vote for Clegg after he got into bed with the tories in 2010"

But Nick Clegg is not the current Lib Dem leader, and Tim Farron voted against the increase in tuition fees. Unless Nick Clegg is your own MP, in which case, fair enough.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2017 11:17

Peter Ukgphakorn @CoppentainPC
Worst case: WTO terms? “Problem is, that safety net does not actually exist right now” + other home truths

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/65322fbc-dd34-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce

Trade truths for Theresa May’s vision of a ‘Global Britain’

Five hurdles on the prime minister’s chosen path for the UK after Brexit

  1. UK asking for something the EU has never done in a timescale that it's never managed before
  2. Most of our trade will still be with the EU due to pesky geography even if we do get loads of new trade deals
  3. It will take years to establish trade deals even with good will
  4. Trump is unreliable and not trustworthy
  5. We have yet to establish our fall back position within the WTO and there's this place called Argentina who don't like us much (amongst others)

Practical stumbling blocks that don't disappear by being positive or threatening the EU.

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Motheroffourdragons · 18/01/2017 11:20

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2017 11:29

Institute for gov @instituteforgov
Four uncomfortable truths about a UK - US trade deal post #Brexit

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/four-uncomfortable-truths-about-quick-deal-uk-us-trade?platform=hootsuite

  1. areas where there is most to gain are most politically sensitive (Food, health)
  2. regulation (Eg chicken with chlorine, beef with steroids and definition of whiskey)
  3. sets a precident for other future deals
  4. UK inexperienced at making deals. US very experienced

It does say the us has made trade deals in under 2 years but it's then taken another couple to ratify / implement.

Again being optimistic doesn't get rid of these barriers and potential pitfalls.

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RedToothBrush · 18/01/2017 11:30

If you were hung up on one senior MP in a party you'd never vote for anyone!

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maizieD · 18/01/2017 11:32

Long time lurker and deeply appreciative of these threads.

Re-reading AnnieKenny's link it seems very clear to me that 'lager louts of Europe' is a metaphor, not a description of the British. Though, as we have been regarded as drunkards for hundreds of years by Europeans, people might be forgiven for thinking that the phrase was descriptive rather than metaphorical.

WRT to the pink map of the world we grew up with I think that a lot of my motivation for voting Remain in the 1975 referendum was that the Empire no longer existed and that it was time we stopped isolating ourselves from Europe; particularly from our then recent view of Germany as the evil enemy (and I will tell you quite frankly that that has been a really difficult thing for me to cope with, I still get the odd feeling of distaste for Germany and have to give my head a shake over it) and our longer held historic view of France as our 'natural enemy'. Of course, there was also the economic pull of European countries thriving while the UK was in the s*t.

I voted Remain this time partly because I still feel these are still valid reasons for staying in the EU and I am deeply ashamed of the racism and xenophobia which some Leavers have displayed since. And I am furious about being accused of being 'unpatriotic' for being ashamed.

Motheroffourdragons · 18/01/2017 11:36

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Peregrina · 18/01/2017 11:43

I can't vote for Clegg after he got into bed with the tories in 2010 . After he went back on his tuition fees promises.

My family are the same. Except that the three younger ones had already finished their university education, so the effect of £9000 fees on them is zero. Brexit however, with two in scientific research and another one an EU mixed race citizen, (who did at least take out British citizenship last year) are likely to be royally shafted by Brexit. Two because of their jobs, and the one because of the increased xenophobia. I think they should put the fees business behind them - but they have switched to Green instead, which sadly, is likely to be a wasted vote in a Parliamentary election.

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2017 11:44

Roberto Azevedo @WTODAZEVEDO
[1/8] In Davos for the 2017 World Economic Forum this week, making the case for a more inclusive trading system #WEF17
[2/8] Trade has boosted growth, created jobs & helped to lift a billion people out of poverty. But we must do more to spread the benefits
[3/8] Net positive effect of trade means zero if you've lost your job. We need better domestic policies to support people
[4/8]Must also recognise that technology is major driver of change. 80% of job losses have been due to tech, innovation, higher productivity
[5/8] Looking ahead, this trend will continue. 50% of jobs are at risk of automation. Attacking trade won't help this
[6/8] I am hearing a lot of talk about protectionism & trade wars. This will destroy jobs not create them
[7/8] I urge caution & leadership. We must avoid talking ourselves into a crisis
[8/8] Global trade rules now provide tools for governments to tackle unfair trade practices. This is the big difference with the 1930s

Can we talk about WTO club and it's rules and regulation. Which court do we defer to if we are a member?

Is WTO club a better club than EU club?

Are we going to fall out with this guy at some point when he doesn't do when he doesn't put British interests at the top of his priorities?

He doesn't sound much different to those nasty foreigners in the EU in twitter messages above.

He's still a foreigner too.

Or do we want to not be part of any club? And seek the destruction of the WTO as an institution too because it doesn't act only for British interests.

No one wants to talk about how good (or bad) WTO is in comparison to EU.

We want a FTA but our fall back is WTO.

When May say no deal is still better than a bad deal what exactly are we talking about?!

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whatwouldrondo · 18/01/2017 11:47

Boris is in India giving free rein to his illusions of superiority and entitlement, not to mention ignorance of the balance of trade, supply chain logistics and price sensitivity of car markets. I bet that is going down well, some of the most excoriating criticism of the UKs postcolonial illusions in relation to Brexit has been in the Indian Press.

"Boris Johnson uses Nazi comparison to criticise French president's stance on Brexit

Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, is in India and, speaking in Delhi, he has responded to French criticism of the UK’s plan to leave the European union, implicitly comparing the French president, Francois Hollande, to a Nazi. He said:

If Mr Hollande wants to administer punishment beatings to anybody who seeks to escape [the EU], in the manner of some world war two movie, I don’t think that is the way forward, and it’s not in the interests of our friends and partners.

It seems absolutely incredible to me that in the 21st century member states of the EU should be seriously contemplating the reintroduction of tariffs or whatever to administer punishment to the UK.

“These things cut both ways,” Johnson said, pointing out that Britain is an enormous market for German cars.

You can put a 10% tariff on 820,000 cars, Mercs. That’s a lot of money for the Exchequer.

We think we can do a great free trade deal for the benefit of both sides. The more trade, the more jobs on both sides.

Hollande has not responded to the speech Theresa May gave yesterday, but he did say this in October last year about Britain leaving the EU.

There must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a price, otherwise we will be in negotiations that will not end well and, inevitably, will have economic and human consequences."

SemiPermanent · 18/01/2017 12:02

*Hollande has not responded to the speech Theresa May gave yesterday, but he did say this in October last year about Britain leaving the EU.

There must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a price, otherwise we will be in negotiations that will not end well and, inevitably, will have economic and human consequences."*

So, pretty much what TM & PH have intimated then wrt Brexit negotiations?

HashiAsLarry · 18/01/2017 12:04

I can't vote for Clegg after he got into bed with the tories in 2010 . After he went back on his tuition fees promises.
Precisely why I never voted for Blair after he broke his promises on university fees. However I hold Clegg less to account for his actions, given he was only the lesser party in a coalition rather than the main guy in charge. TBH I felt Clegg and the Lib Dems got a tough ride and if the last few years prove anything it was that they had a more steadying hand than Murdoch et al cared to write about.

TuckersBadLuck · 18/01/2017 12:09

Can we talk about WTO club and it's rules and regulation. Which court do we defer to if we are a member?

As I understand it the WTO is it's own 'court'. It's a forum where countries can settle disputes.

www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/tif_e.htm

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2017 12:22

This exchange of tweets says a lot:

Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
The US is outside the single market and thrives? Hang on a minute. The US is a single market. That's why the EU single market was created

jamie martin ‏*********@jamieamartin1
@CoppetainPU @chemistrypoet* correct. it was created to politically bind europe into one entity not separate states. hence integral to EU

ChemistryPoet ‏*********@chemistrypoet
@jamieamartin1 @CoppetainPU* doesn't need to be one State to be an effective Single market though?

jamie martin ‏*********@jamieamartin1
@chemistrypoet @CoppetainPU* a free trade deal obvs not. But EU SM was set up for political reasons. Hence social element (which MT opposed)

Peter Ungphakorn ‏**********@CoppetainPU
@jamieamartin1 @chemistrypoet 4 freedoms of movement made it more than a free trade deal, designed partly to compete economically with US

jamie martin ‏*********@jamieamartin1
@CoppetainPU @chemistrypoet* but by taking away democratic control of such an important issue as immig you undermine state (&supp for ftrade)

ChemistryPoet ‏*********@chemistrypoet
@jamieamartin1 @CoppetainPU* 'erosion of sovereignty' argument?

Peter Ungphakorn ‏**********@CoppetainPU
@chemistrypoet @jamieamartin1 Sure. Not defending it, just saying single market was seen as way to compete economically with the US.

Peter Ungphakorn ‏**********@CoppetainPU
@chemistrypoet @jamieamartin1 But every time you sign an international treaty you are eroding sovereignty. Being a WTO member does that too.

ChemistryPoet ‏*********@chemistrypoet
@CoppetainPU @jamieamartin1* indeed. Always a trade off. On balance, EU membership has been very good for UK, I think.

Questions that stem from the above:

  1. The US was the EU's natural competitor. We were unable to compete on a global scale without being part of the EU. Therefore in leaving where does that now leave us?
  2. If we sign a trade deal with the US are we in effect making a new political union and are in rivalry to the EU?
  3. What sovereignty do we surrender in signing a deal with the US? What are we prepared to surrender? Is this in our best interest?

Be under no illusion, Trump wanting to move fast on a deal with the UK is about more than Trade. May has sent her two closest advisors to talk to Trump's team already.

Will we get to vote on the soveignty issues that might come out of doing a deal with the US? Isn't that as bad as not giving the public a vote on Maastricht?

I do very much think this is a choice between the US and the EU in our direction. We will not be offered choices about our future if we pick a close relationship with the US.

Why is no one making more of this?

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RedToothBrush · 18/01/2017 12:25

ITV reporting Paul Nuttall will be the Stoke Central candidate.

Unconfirmed as yet.

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Mistigri · 18/01/2017 12:27

Can we talk about WTO club and it's rules and regulation. Which court do we defer to if we are a member?

Members sign up to a Dispute Settlement Understanding, with cases decided if necessary by the a Dispute Settlement Body made up of WTO signatories.

Any trade agreement, including the WTO but also any FTA, will have a dispute settlement mechanism which involves a loss of sovereignty.

Mistigri · 18/01/2017 12:30

There must be a threat, there must be a risk, there must be a price, otherwise we will be in negotiations that will not end well and, inevitably, will have economic and human consequences.

All negotiations require give and take, and for this to work, both sides must face offsetting risks and benefits from any eventual agreement. This is so basic as to be barely worth stating.

You don't think the UK Government is making threats? Have you seen the Times front page today?

RedToothBrush · 18/01/2017 12:32

Scottish MPs set to be denied a vote on parts of Brexit

The SNP’s Kirsty Blackman asks for a guarantee that no part of the Great Repeal Bill will be blocked from votes by Scottish MPs.

The PM gives no such assurance, saying the Bill - which draws EU law since the 1970s into UK law - will contain many complex issues.

In other words, some of them could be voted on by English-only, or English- and Welsh-only, MPs.

It’ll only happen if that part of the legislation only applies to England.

From Mirror.

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BlueEyeshadow · 18/01/2017 12:35

Thank you for these threads, yet again. I have little to say generally that other people haven't already expressed better.

There is a survey on the Conservatives' website asking whether people agree with Theresa May's 12 points: survey here - it would undoubtedly be instructive to them to get a range of perspectives.

prettybird · 18/01/2017 12:38

Some People may have disagreed with some/all/bits of its content, but at least the Scottish Government produced - and disseminated - a White Paper, and what's more, did so before the referendum.

TheMartiansAreInvadingUs · 18/01/2017 12:49

I thought we had moved in from 'let's not give scright to vote to Scotland in English matters'
I also thought that the uk was ONE country and that Brexit is something that will have an effect on the whole country..,,

Now what is TM scared about if she wants to stop Scotland to have a voice?

TheMartiansAreInvadingUs · 18/01/2017 12:54

That was an interesting survey.....

HashiAsLarry · 18/01/2017 12:56

Whether or not you take the stance that Scottish MPs should or shouldn't vote on English matters, brexit is a uk matter ffs. I really hope that's just bull because otherwise it's a direct assault on union.