Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

Personally I think boris is trying to get himself sacked. He has realised what a mess brexit will be and as he still has aspirations to be pm wants to distance himself from the carnage - even through he was part of the catalyst . He has never been interested in or a spokesperson from human rights in other countries until this week . Guess he is fed up of having to apologise to all the countries that he has previously insulted!

All the leave voters I know, like WT cannot stand Farage and deeply resent the implication that their vote in any way related to his bigoted right wing views and the disproportional airtime he was given by the media. Personally I find both Farage and Self equally smug, but Farage is Dulwich College (a very wealthy independent school) and city boy smug whilst Self is North London state school educated intellectual smug. Neither is in the least bit interested in anyone else's views, either mine or Mangos

Mango We have discussed issues and found we had views in common but I am afraid I read your posts and just saw divisive inverted snobbery. It is completely impossible to generalise about what people want from politicians because the country is not devided 48:52 except in terms of whether they answered a very high level question yes or no. Why they answered it yes or no is self evidently diverse. Of course you could segment the 48 and the 52 according to certain common perceptions, attitudes and demographics (and I do do that for a living except in order to sell them stuff not win a vote) but ultimately we are all segments of one.

yes, retorting to criticisms about farage with criticisms about Will self/Campbell/Blair seems odd and suggests that posters believe if you don't like farage - many of us - then you must be a middle class guardian reading socialist- this is simply not true!

Farage does not answer questions on how to provide solutions. He just says rip the plaster cast off a broken leg and you'll be able to walk again. (His policy on fixing the UK's political problems and through his approach on Brexit).

All he does is align himself with people's way of thinking and present himself as being similar to them.

He is ALL about presentation.

The reality is though that he is sneery of the same people in the same way as anyone he criticises for doing it. This is not the first time he has made comments about 'low grade' people.

He also shares many of the values as this 'metropolitan elite' precisely because he is metropolitan elite.

He's very quite about his German passport application and very quite about his personal wealth because this presents him in a different way. His presentation is much more important than his substance.

He exploits ignorance over immigration and fear of foreigners. He has fascist views in this department and as such knows from history who is best to target to gain support. His media support and pr is superb. It is not a coincidence.

He knows how to exploit and create situations which provoke a liberal backlash and this makes it difficult for people to challenge easily as they are unaware of the traps they are falling into because he deliberately makes himself look more stupid and ignorant than he is.

And that actually says what he thinks of the people he says he represents. He is every bit as cynical and sneery as any remainer who says someone is stupid. He treats his supporters as stupid in the way he behaves.

But this is ignored as he has apparently already 'proved' himself in his manner and presentation so that his supporter are beyond and unwilling to look past that as he's given them some hope that someone really is listening and something will change.

No one gives up on hope. Its an irrepressible human need.

The only way you can break this is to break the cycle and give hope another way (strangely, we are being told repeatedly by the conservatives we must believe in Brexit and its them that's giving it not UKIP...)

Who, in British politics, is currently giving hope to the group that Farage is targeting and they can identify with? Other than Farage?

(Interestingly, I'm not sure that Nuttalls fits this model either).

believe if you don't like farage - many of us - then you must be a middle class guardian reading socialist- this is simply not true

Why do you think the phrase 'liberal elite' is being thrown around as such an insult. Plus the guardian is one of the few and certainly most vocal critics of Farage - and one of the most guilty of its sneeriness.

In doing these threads its difficult to get away from Guardian articles and I do worry about posting too many, but they often carry very important points that others aren't.

The trouble with it, is very often its tone. Not what it says.

It annoys me at times. At others it matches and reflects my frustration.

I think frustration is a common theme in not being able to communicate a message to another group in society and at the moment that's presenting itself in ways that are not constructive to changing that.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-balls-strictly-popularity-comres-poll-theresa-may-a7467336.html

Politicians' popularity ratings from the Independent. Farage almost identical to Corbyn. I don't understand why Farage gets so much air time, including on these threads, but perhaps I am missing something.

No one gives up on hope. Its an irrepressible human need.

Completely agree.

The difficult thing is that it's not just the completely desperate who are susceptible to promises of false hope. It's also the slightly disgruntled, easily distracted and self deceiving.

I don't think Trump has ever had any involvement with the personal fitness industry, but I bet Ivanka has thought about selling fitness videos/diets/a chain of gyms.

I don't understand why Farage gets so much air time

The whole thing is self perpetuating, but the Tory party have done very little to slap him down and then there's the whole Trump thing.

Who in the Leave camp is disagreeing with him?

25% approval rating? 1/4 of the country? Farage created the conditions for the referendum, Farage campaigned for the referendum, Farage won the referendum. Of course people are talking about him.

Why aren't people talking about Corbyn is less obvious. I actually thought he had been hiding! Here's one theory: www.counterfire.org/news/18658-laura-kuenssberg-wins-journalist-of-the-year

(NB: I am not at all claiming that I am never disgruntled, distracted or self deceiving).

Farage gives answers that are clear and simple - and won't work.
He's a conman, peddling snake oil to desperate people.

It is the elite bleeding heart middle class who support workers' rights, who support benefits for those worse off.
Farage & the far right want to slash the welfare state, in order to give tax cuts for the rich and make the UK a tax haven.
They want a "bonfire of workers's rights' to attract business after Brexit
They want to privatise the NHS, to make money

As for "middle class sneering" at people, Farage calling people "low grade" is pretty sneery.
Saying "I wouldn't employ them" shows he instinctively views himself as a boss, despite his "ordinary bloke in the pub" act.

News media exist to sell ads, not news.
Farage isn't that popular, but he's a media sleb, so people watch him.
He's clickbait
Noone clicks on to watch Corbyn, unless the alternative is counting sheep or watching the washing machine rotate.

For the BBC it's ratings, not ads, to justify their licence fee.
Also, like many media organisations not on the far right, they are somewhat intimidated by them.

Katie Hopkins does the same thing - she's always talking about who she would or wouldn't employ, although it's not clear whether, as a jobbing troll, she has ever employed anyone.

Being called a liberal elite is not very hurtful to the recipient, is it?! I would quite like to be a liberal elite with a townhouse in Islington and a chateau in Normandy. I guess I'm liberal working class.

That sucks.

However, I guess it is popular as an insult because:

• It suggests we the people are in it together - but you're not. It 'others'. You're either with us/the national interest or against us - traitors.
• Its another of those woolly meaningless phrases that some people seem to really go for.
• Nobody likes an elite,of course. Even the elites hate (their version of) elites.
• Nobody likes the hypocritical elite (ie. labour/the left in power)

-Nobody likes 'the idea' of the Guardian. (patronising/superior/"not real")

• Its easier to say 'I hate the liberal elite' for letting us be over-run by foreigners, rather than the more simple 'I hate foreigners'.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/10/poll-public-will-not-accept-brexit-worse-off-tim-farron-ukip-lib-dem-yougov?CMP=share_btn_tw
Poll suggests public will not accept a Brexit that leaves them worse off

Surveys from YouGov and Which? point to a growing worry that Brexit will leave the UK poorer

The British public will not accept a Brexit deal that leaves them worse off financially, a new poll suggests. In a sign that a majority of the public would be unwilling to accept an economically damaging hard Brexit, half of those who voted to leave the EU in June, including 62% of Labour voters and 59% of those in the north, would not be willing to lose any money at all as a consequence of Britain’s withdrawal.

Just one in 10 would be willing to lose more than £100 a month. Pollster Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov, said the results suggested that Theresa May “could have real difficulty in delivering a Brexit that satisfies those who voted for it”.

He added: “This is the first poll to look specifically at whether leave voters are willing to accept any financial loss as a result of Brexit. The answer is that few are prepared to.”

The poll, conducted by YouGov for Open Britain, the successor organisation to Britain Stronger in Europe, also shows that one in five (22%) of voters do not expect Brexit to have any impact on their finances. Just 5% believe they will be better off, while 28% expect to lose money and 45% do not know – despite Vote Leave’s now infamous pledge that quitting Brussels would boost the public purse by £350m a week.

Another poll, by consumer magazine Which?, also indicates that the economic effects of Brexit are a major worry for much of the public. It shows that almost half the population (47%) are worried about Brexit, up eight points since September, with nearly two-thirds concerned about its potential impact on food prices.

Brexit voters in areas where a majority of people backed EU withdrawal are among those most unhappy to be left worse off, according to the study – including 59% in the north and 54% in Wales and the Midlands.

Even among Ukip supporters – whose party has demanded May reject the article 50 process and instead leave the EU immediately by repealing the 1972 European Communities act – a substantial number, 39%, do not want to incur a financial loss because of Brexit.

We are in danger of losing a thread favourite:
Continued speculation that TM may soon dump Boris, for the sin of speaking the truth. Rare for him and clearly not what she wanted in her Brexit Foreign Secretary.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/09/theresa-may-boris-johnson-double-act-cabaret

btw, I got a nasty shock when I saw the photo heading the article - looks like TM performed some unspeakable satanic rites and raised Mrs Thatcher from the grave.
Any other old gimmer who remembers her reign - do look at the photo - is it just me ?
Also, has Boris been eating all the world's pies ?

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/27/nigel-farage-should-respected-not-abused-says-michael-gove/amp/?client=safari

Michael Gove: Farage should be respected not abused.

While it's easy to laugh at Farage in the UK, he and his gang are clearly linked to Steve Bannon. Nigel Farage is obviously a tosser, but the government clearly feel they have to take him seriously and that is scary.

merry It's a coup, always was, just without the shades and nice weather.

Simon has his svengali specs on.

Ignore me. Wrong thread!

We'll never be rid of the bj.

He's a privileged thorn in the nations backside.

I don't have much sympathy with brexiters who don't want to take a financial hit re brexit.

I don't think she'll get rid of Boris, not because he's any use but out of her own self-interest. If she keeps him where he is, she is letting people see that he's generally not to be trusted with any kind of responsibility, whereas if she gets shot of him now, he can go off and start building up a challenge to her.

Boris- The perfect scapegoat -

He has his cake and is also eating everyone's cakes.