Andy Burnham’s Brexitential Crisis and Why This Might End Up Being a Big Problem for Labour in 2017
I think this is a big story to watch out for next year. Andy Burnham is standing for the Mayor of Greater Manchester. The election is due to take place on the 4th May.
On face value, it looks like he should be a shoe in for the job. I think it’s worth watching though.
Last night, Mike Smithson of Political Betting posted this:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Latest Gtr Manchester Mayor odds from @LadPolitics
@JaneBrophyLD in from 50/1 last night to 16/1
That got my attention.
Why the big shift, suddenly?
Of late, Burnham has been going very anti-immigration. Are the two related? And if they are, will this make a difference to views of the Labour Party, both within Manchester and outside of it.
I know a couple of people have said Burnham has ‘lost the plot’. Has he?
So, I decided to take a look at this more closely. Why is Smithson raising the question of whether Burnham is bound to win?
Firstly the voting method makes a huge difference; Its supplementary vote. This should get alarm bells ringing. It’s definitely not as straightforward as normal constituency elections, nor local elections.
The SV system is very similar to the AV system. Under SV, voters are limited to a first and second preference choice. A voter marks a cross in one column for their first preference candidate and another cross in a second column for their second preference (if they wish to do so).
The ballot papers are counted and if a candidate received more than 50 per cent of the first preference votes on the first count, then they are elected.
If no candidate reaches the 50 per cent threshold, the two candidates with the highest number of votes are retained and the other candidates are eliminated. The second preferences on the ballot papers of the eliminated candidates are counted and any cast for the two remaining candidates are transferred. The candidate with the most votes at the end of this process is elected.
Of course, an anti-immigration ticket therefore might make sense. In first past the post, Labour would be competing for anti-immigration votes with both Conservative and UKIP votes. In a supplementary vote, he’s actively chasing Conservative and UKIP voters if he’s making a big deal of the immigration issue.
However, Manchester poses a problem for him if he seeks to go down this route. You might recall that Manchester itself voted Remain, but Greater Manchester voted Leave. The vote for the mayor covers Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, Wigan. When you add this all up together it splits 46% Remain 54% Leave. I would be cautious about divide though. Its not necessarily going to go in Burnham’s favour. Neither is how many votes Labour got at the last general election. When you add all those up for the 5 main parties, Labour got 46% of the vote. This is crucial. It misses out on the magic 50% with SV.
With that, his position really starts to make sense.
Let’s look at the other parties in 2015. The Cons were on around 26% of the vote, UKIP 16.2%, LD’s 7% and Greens 3.5%.*
Again, that looks pretty safe for him on an anti-immigration ticket. I’m not so sure it’s that clear cut.
In 2010 the result for the whole of Greater Manchester worked out as Lab 42%, Con 28%, LD 25%, Green 0.5% and UKIP 3.5%.*
(*This is roughly done and ignores the votes cast for any other party just for the purposes of this, so naturally there is a significant number of votes this doesn’t include, but should give a rough idea. These parties are the only ones standing candidates).
The key questions are therefore; could there be a swing back to the LDs, how will the date of the election affect the result, what will people vote for as a second choice, what will turnout do to the vote and will the Leave / Remain split make a difference? This is where it starts to get more interesting.
Greater Manchester, has a particular divide. The North and East is less affluent and the South and West fits the Liberal Metropolitan Bracket far more, and perhaps has more in common with London in places than it does with the north of the city. This is reflected in voting. The north has traditionally voted for donkeys wearing red rosettes whilst the south and central, is more competitive with bigger opposition from the Conservatives and the LDs. This was also reflected in the referendum. I think this could really have an impact on the result, simply because you would expect higher turnout in the more affluent Conservative and Lib Dem parts of the authority. That immediately makes that 46% - 54% EU referendum divide look shaker.
How will the date affect the result?
The first thing about May, will be whether a50 has been triggered or not and how this affects people’s moods. What Labour do, might have a really big impact. It could go either direction. Plus we could still have a General Election at the same time. Students are also more likely to still be in town (unlike at the EU referendum). Will Kippers turnout if a50 has been triggered? Are they more likely to if it hasn't? And vice versa for the Lib Dems?
Could there be a swing back to the LDs?
First of all it comes down to who manages to come first in the initial round of voting. The GE would suggest it would be the Conservatives. What happens if Burnham tries to make it related to Brexit though? Would that, combined with a lower turnout, work for the Lib Dems putting them into the second round.
This is highly likely in Trafford and Stockport. Trafford is solid conservative BUT it also voted Remain. The LD candidate has previously stood in Trafford for the Altrincham and Sale seat. Conservatives in Trafford are the same kind of Tories that live in Richmond Park. The Lib Dems dropped a significant number of votes here in 2015. Stockport, has in the past, been prime Lib Dem country both on the council and with a MP in Cheadle. It also voted Remain. These two councils generally have the highest voter turnouts out in Greater Manchester. The Lib Dems have dropped between 13 – 22% in these constituencies.
If the Conservatives come second in the first round, he should be home and dry because UKIP, Lib Dem and Green votes are all discounted on the recount.
However if the Lib Dems do edge it into second this could well be a risk for Burnham. It would mean that only second round votes for the Lib Dems would count. Thus anyone voting Cons or UKIP on the immigration ticket would also be automatically discounted as irrelevant.
This makes Remainers votes REALLY important. For their first or second choice.
What will people vote for as a second choice?
Labour is likely to be the first and perhaps only choice for a lot of people. Swing voters and how people vote locally is probably in play here. In Bury and Bolton, its likely to be either UKIP or the Conservatives. Leave areas.
In the South of the City in Trafford and Stockport, the Lib Dem threat is very much present.
The curious areas are Manchester, Oldham and Rochdale. Although Oldham and Rochdale are strong leave areas, they have also had strong Lib Dem support locally in the past. Manchester is a Remain area with strong Lib Dem support.
The Lib Dems have also had strong council representation in Manchester, Oldham and Rochdale (they controlled the council in Oldham and Rochdale in the past).
Again if the Lib Dems can make it to the second round, the votes could stack up for them as Conservative and UKIP ones are discounted.
What will turnout do to the result?
Given Lib Dems are likely to be well up for a fight here, and see this as a target the Lib Dem machine will be out. It’s hard to argue the Conservatives have a real chance here, even with a good second round showing. Labour might struggle to get voters out. Turnout is likely to be low and not dissimilar to by-elections and council by-elections, which probably works best for Lib Dems over Labour ultimately.
Will the Remain / Leave split make a difference?
It depends on what the second choice of the 3rd, 4th and 5th place votes is. Kippers are unlikely to vote LD. But if they vote Conservative over Labour then they won’t help Burnham. The Conservative votes are the important ones. It depends on what type of Conservative they are.
Affluent liberal Conservatives are more likely to vote LD – there would be a lot of these spare in South Manchester. More anti-immigration Conservatives are in North Manchester – the danger is they could have more pro-UKIP sympathies and thus useless to Burnham and perhaps still adverse to Corbyn.
If Lib Dems do get to the second round, then their voters are perhaps more likely to vote Burnham, but this doesn’t help him as their first choice is the one that’s counted.
It’s easy to see why Burnham has gone anti-immigration. It’s clearly very tactical and based on the knowledge he is unlikely to win on the first round. The 'jellyfish' label will be used against him. Lots.
Mike Smithson also points out that the LDs have twice as many elected mayors as the Tories. The voting system, works well for them.
Greater Manchester is not the only mayor election in May 2017. There is also East Anglia, Lincolnshire, Liverpool, Sheffield, Tees Valley, West of England and West Midlands.
Burnham is the big name though, and will be the one that attracts the most attention. His campaign will be watched closely. Will he do a Zac Goldsmith? That’s his danger. Particularly UKIP have a vested interest in Burnham winning over their own candidate as Paul Nuttall then gets to stand in the Leigh by-election then.
If he does go all Goldsmith on the Labour party, then how does that sit with Labour voters elsewhere on a national level? Will it save their necks in the north? Of course this could undermine them in other areas… I’m sure there are parts of the media who will be quite happy to deal another hammer blow to Labour, and the trouble is, in this case there is every reason for the Lib Dems to also get into the act for their own benefit. I think it could get ugly.
Unfortunately for Labour, even if Burnham wins (which I think is still the most likely outcome) he could also wreak havoc for the party.