Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

[RedToothBrush]

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

Report from the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Human Rights about situation of EU citizens in UK and UK citizens in EU.

Grauniad story here www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/19/brexit-uk-deport-millions-of-eu-nationals-report-jchr-human-rights
Actual report here www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt201617/jtselect/jtrights/695/69502.htm

No time to read and comment at the mo. Blinkin' Christmas.

The possibility that Arlene Foster could be forced to step aside or stand down completely can only be a good thing report here. Imagine if the Supreme Court rules that the WM government must get the agreement of the devolved governments before it can trigger Art 50; the absence of Foster could make this much less of a given in Northern Ireland.

Misti The Times, The Economist, The Independent, The Guardian and the FT were very firmly Remain and still are, so I don't think it is really accurate to say that the press sat on the fence or sided with Leave.

That is before we get into the Government, most MPs, the BoE, the IMF etc etc etc firmly backing Remain.

Patty,

Yes, these are very worrying times for EU nationals; 30% of applications for permanent residency is turned down. (Source: the 3 million website).

The ludicrous side of it is that you do not need to prove your right to reside because you have it but if you want to have a 'physical piece of paper' you need to fill an inappropriate 85 page document and prove continual self-sufficiency for 5 years.

I personally had a shock. Arrived in 1977. Degrees both in Nottingham and UCL. Built a business; employed 25 members of staff; owned property etc..in the UK. Married a British national late and had a child late (dual nationality). Decided to become a stay at home mother to look after child during the last five years. This means that I cannot prove self sufficiency for the last five years hence cannot have a permanent right to reside !!

Bring married to a British national, having a British child, having proof of my National Insurance contributions since 1981, Companies ' House Business Accounts for the last 3 decades together with VAT returns etc.. do not count. All they want is 5 years recent self sufficiency.

This affects many EU nationals women married to British men. Indeed if they have lived in the UK, 10 years, 20 years and had 1, 2, 3 children and stopped work to look after their children, they ,then , do not have 5 year continual self suffiency evidence and will be turned down by Home Office.

Furthermore where does this leave EU women who spent all their adult lives in the UK as to their health and pensions? They can claim 'Zilch ' in their home country because they never worked there hence not entitled to anything and can claim 'zilch' in the UK because they cannot prove 'self sufficiency in the more recent five years and cannot have the permanent right to reside paper..

Am very pissed off to say the least!!

But Trump's damage can be limited to 8 years at most.

I think you miss the point about him enabling more modern day Jim Crow laws which make it impossible for the Democrats to get back in, and allow for another President of his ilk to get in. Or he manages at the next election, through the use of said Jim Crow laws to carry enough states and senate/congress seats to be able to change the constitution, and repeal the limit on 2 terms. (He is not far from this point).

The Electoral College vote today. There are protests planned throughout the USA.

The last week has been funny for Brexit news. The main stories seem to be just a reworking of things that have been known for months but haven't made it into the mainstream press. Just with a particular angle: for example an Ambassador says that it might 10 years to negotiate a new trade deal. That's been said for months. Yet its only now getting proper publicity because of who has said it. We also have Liam Fox saying the words 'transitional deal'.

New for 2017: Brexit means Transitional Deal.

You can't help but think that reality is setting into the debate and the dawning realisation amongst Brexiteers that the referendum itself really was only the start rather than the end of the debate. Which is completely appropriate given the fact there was a refusal to discuss what Brexit meant from all sides prior to the referendum.

Liam Fox has also talked about the reversibility of a50:

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh
Asked if Article 50 is 'revocable', Fox tells @MarrShow "It's not a matter of legality, it's a matter of democracy". Echo of DD

I note that he didn't question the legal side of it. A reversible a50 potentially gives the UK power in negotiations, yet the principle of democracy is more important. At this stage at least.

You can't help but think that reality is setting into the debate and the dawning realisation amongst Brexiteers that the referendum itself really was only the start rather than the end of the debate.

Most reasonable Leave voters knew this though.

howabout of those publications, only the FT and the economist were unequivocally behind the remain campaign for the entire campaign period. I deleted the guardian app from my iPad due to its lukewarm stance!

The circulation of the unequivocally remain-supporting business-oriented publications is pretty low. So my point remains. Media played a big role in this.

^“I did one interview with The Times of London a few weeks ago, parts of which (including a headline that is not a quote) have been picked up by a lot of other outlets.
“I DID NOT declare that I’m ‘quitting acting and leaving Hollywood’ to go into politics.
“In the actual original interview I said I have become more involved with community issues back at home over the last few years and because of the political situation it’s something I would like to focus on more.
“The interviewer asked me what that meant for my career and I said it might mean I work less as an actor and maybe even stop for a while AT SOME POINT. But I don’t really know yet.
“I certainly did NOT equate people who voted for Brexit or Trump with a fascistic ‘hard right’ that must be stopped.
“The majority of people in the U.K., including my hometown of Port Talbot, voted for Brexit. That is the will of the people and is to be respected. That is democracy.
“Given the concerns around the economy in the area I come from and its industrial history I totally empathise with the dissatisfaction with the status quo that the vote was partially an expression of.
“What I think must be resisted is the re-emerging spectre of fascism in the West. Our democracy must be defended and each of us needs to decide how we can contribute to that effort.”^

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/michael-sheen-angry-people-misreporting-12337885

It appears Michael Sheen is not impressed by being misrepresented in the Guardian etc the other day.

Lico emphasises how urgent it is that an agreement on EU nationals is reached. I think it will not be as simple as is being made out, for the reasons that you raise, as well as others.

I'm in France and our famous French bureaucracy has been thoroughly outclassed by the UK home office. My DS's recent application for French nationality required me to fill in a one page form (one page? And they call themselves bureaucrats?) and took a whole ten days to process. They really need to step up to the plate if they want to compete with the UK's 85 page forms and 6 month + delays.

Lico, I have been reading about permit of residence and reached the same depressing conclusions. I'm fortunate that I've been in permanent work for the last five years, but if I lost my job and had to find another one with a gap in between I suppose that would disqualify me. I have EU friends, mainly women, who have taken years off work on order to bring up their children while their British husband has a job. They cannot apply for permanent residence. Another friend had quit her job in order to care for her terminally sick British partner and she's now not entitled to apply. Absolutely appalling.

I agree Media played a big part in this. My mother in law, Essex, voted Leave and told me that she will be sorry to see me leave!!! As though boats were waiting in Dover to deport all EU nationals.
Ah.. but this is what 'The Paper' said (Daily Mail of course)..

If only hardcore racists had voted leave, the remain would have won. That wasn't an extrapolation that I had made. I made one on simple arithmetic, that if 15% of the vote were hard core racists, that translates to 4-5 million. If those hard core racists had not voted at all, Remain would have won comfortably.

I agree that other factors came into being - some voting for the NHS, some following Johnson. I almost got into an argument the other day with someone telling me that he talked sense. I had to beg to differ and say that he normally talks rubbish.This was before his comment on the proxy wars, which is one of the few sensible things he has said.

Red as I wrote about Trump, I did think that yes, we could get another President of equally bad stripe. Or equally bad, Trump gets impeached and we get Pence.

It looks like that those EU women married to British men who gave up work in between having children will be completely 'shafted ' because they do not have the 5 year continual self sufficiency .

We need to distinguish between those who stir up hate, supporting fascists in Europe & the USA
vs those who simply decided that the country would do better outside the EU and were not racist at all.
Totally different motivations, politicians and voters in those 2 sections of the Brexit camp:

There are longterm Leave campaigners like Kate Hoey, Frank Field and Daniel Hannan, all of whom I sometimes disagree with, but totally respect as decent, honourable politicians.

Also, some on the left think leaving the EU will enable them to:

• take protectionist measures - difficult in a WTO hard Brexit and totally against the intentions of the Tory free market Leavers.
  However, the left expect voters to turn to them after a recession, so they are accepting pain for longterm gain.

• take in more refugees and families of non-EU immigrants - they think voters would accept this if EU immigration was cut down.
  Totally unrealistic.

However, the Leave campaign was well behind until Arron Banks and his glove-puppet Farage deliberately & professionally stirred up anti-immigrant hysteria, via the tabloids, posters, shock videos on social media etc

Arron Banks said: “It was taking an American-style media approach.
“What they [Political strategists Goddard Gunster] said early on was ‘facts don’t work’ and that’s it.
“The remain campaign featured fact, fact, fact, fact, fact. It just doesn’t work. You have got to connect with people emotionally

Most of the tabloids (except the Mirror) were for Brexit, not just presenting the case for it, but ramping up xenophobia and hate
They continue trying to divide the UK, demonising both immigrants and anyone who doesn't support an immediate hard Brexit, whether politicians, private citizens or judges.
They cheer on fascists everywhere: Russia, USA, France, Austria, Germany ....

So, yes there is a fascist minority we all need to oppose, no excuses , whatever one's views on Brexit.

Lico - I can't believe your MIL said that!

Sadly a number of my friends who are parents at my DDs school are in the same position.

I am utterly disgusted by what is going on and the turmoil they are going through. What will be the situation if you are not eligible for residency? Will you be able to stay?

I can't see how they can force mothers away from their British children - although when it comes to TM as PM I actually wouldn't put this past her

thehill.com/homenews/news/310904-trump-spokesman-credits-trump-tweet-for-china-returning-drone

I found this quite worrying.

My impression is that while many people agree that the US China relationship needs to be reviewed, and that the Taiwan phone call was a strategic attempt to change the status quo, nobody knows what Trump is thinking, and nobody is even checking whether his tweets are spelt correctly. If somebody has been giving him expert advice on China, when?

However, despite not yet being president, he seems to have created this conflict over the drone and then claimed credit for the Chinese returning the drone as though that is the end of the matter. He hasn't got anything 'done'. However in what seems like a blatant attempt at newspeak, his press secretary is claiming that Trump has had some kind of victory.

On the one hand, I think the US was due a republican president and the other candidates were also pretty alarming.

On the other, where is the evidence that he knows what he is doing, or has the humility to know that he doesn't know what he is doing?

Nobody knows anything about his finances and he doesn't appear to care about conflicts of interest. Obama says that the act of entering the Oval Office is humbling, but with Trump...?

Change to the status quo or diversionary tactics to mobilise nationalist feelings and avoid having to address other issues? I do think it is the latter now. This is what the Chinese government are saying. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/19/donald-trump-no-idea-how-to-run-superpower-chinese-state-media One of the ways the Chinese leadership hang on to a mandate of power is to portray themselves as Confucian sage emperors skilled in and delivering good stable government.They described Brexit as proving that democracy is the enemy of good stable government, and this is more of the sane. However given that Trump has a clear case of Narcisstic personality disorder, I read that one senior CIA had highlighted how this made him vulnerable to being groomed by overseas powers, it is highly likely that this sort of criticism will result in more irrational action from him.

I meant same, but it is a weird world in which it would not be entirely wrong to say that the Chinese leadership are looking the more sane ?

Lico - I can't believe your MIL said that!

I can .

My DS (who obviously shares my non Anglo-Saxon name) has been told the same. He was very confused when it first happened, as he is too young to have had any real experience of 70s-style naked racism. It's heartbreaking he is having to learn now - which is one of the reasons deep inside I am incandescent with rage at those that have allowed this to happen, and why "get over it" won't cut any mustard.

I had an old uni 'friend' telling me I needed to suck up racism now as I was only allowed in the country now thanks to being married to my British husband.
I have dual nationality, one of which is British.

I do worry for my parents though only a little as they voted for this as DF gave up his British citizenship and although he is self supporting, DM hasn't been since she became disabled 6 years ago. However DM has been here for most of her adult life and has no entitlement to anything back in her home country.

"Misti The Times, The Economist, The Independent, The Guardian and the FT were very firmly Remain and still are, so I don't think it is really accurate to say that the press sat on the fence or sided with Leave"

How do their circulation figures compare with The Mail, Express and Sun?

The Times, The Economist, The Independent, The Guardian and the FT
Easy question: which of these are Tabloids? Easy answer - none.
I assume the Mirror was the only pro-Remain tabloid?

The broadsheets were more likely to have mixed feelings about Europe, as was the 'Remain campaign'. I don't think anybody said that the EU didn't need improvement.

On the other hand the tabloids were far more gung-ho about their opinion, whether or not it was based in reality.

The Mirror was Remain; the other tabloids were Leave and have been spewing racist hate for many years.

The Sun used to be pro-EU because it suited Murdoch's business interests then.
They switched to Leave after the EU proposed measures to tackle offshore tax dodges by billionaires and companies

• the UK government is STILL trying to stop these measures, so wasting their waning influence within the EU on defending the rights of the wealthiest to didge tax