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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Constitutional Crisis?

990 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/12/2016 00:03

Its twelve days to go until the end of the HoC 2016 calendar and we can already tell that everyone is wishing it was Christmas already. Poor Theresa though, she doesn’t get to play with toys on the last day of term. Instead she has a grilling on the lack of spending on health and social care spending by a commons select committee.

Hopefully the next couple of weeks will calm down a little though as thoughts turn elsewhere.

The A50 case has come to an end. There is no way of telling which way the judges will go but the decision to appeal may yet haunt the government as it will bring the issue of devolution to a head, whether they win or lose. The ruling is due in mid January.

Win and they are going to have to amend the Devolution Acts and potentially impose Brexit on people with certain national identities who voted against it. This is profoundly undemocratic and a betrayal of the principles of Devolution and the expectations of the will of the people.
Lose and they could face a full blown constitutional crisis, with NI or Scotland or both having a veto over Brexit, and the government effectively unable to trigger a50 in line with our constitutional requirement. Which is again, potentially profoundly undemocratic and against the referendum and the expectations of the will of the people.

It was a scenario that predictable and avoidable at several junctions yet the government under Cameron and May ploughed on regardless. It a scenario that we are now locked into, due to deciding to use the courts rather than just go through parliament.

It could also massively restrict the power of the executive under the Royal Prerogative. Ironically this is something that David Davis has campaigned for, for years so I guess he gets a victory however the decision goes.
So the chances of some kind of crisis with regard to our constitutional makeup and the union seem inevitable in the new year.

The government despite a defeat in Richmond Park continues to lean right and characterise anyone with concerns as unpatriotic or not honourable. This is the last resort of the desperate.

They have however, conceded to Labour that they will publish a report on their Brexit plans before a50 is triggered. In return Labour have promised that they will let a50 be triggered by the end of March. Is this a good thing? It remains to be seen. In some ways this is a blinder for Labour.

They are pro-Brexit but anti-lack of plan in theory. This only works if the plan actually has substance. If there is no substance in the plan and its nothing more than empty words then they face having to go back on a commons vote committing them to a deal with the Conservatives. It could therefore be a trap for them. It marginalises the none English Nationalist voices too. Voices that are important and deserve to be heard. Voices that if they are not listened to, will have consequences.

What will the Sleaford and North Hykenham (yep again) by election bring?

A vote of confidence in the government, a new ever growing and rising fear of UKIP or something else. How will this colour the start to the New Year?

I don’t know. 2016 has apparently been the year of gin as people turn to the drink to cope. Everything is now Brexitty and Red, White and Blue.
But whose’s? Britain’s? The USA’s? Russia’s? Or France’s?

We look forward to, or more to the point we fear what 2017 could bring. A feeling we have not felt to this degree in many years. A General Election with a UKIP breakthrough. The end of peace in NI. A repeat of the age old betrayal of Scotland’s by the English. The Welsh damned to irrelevance and marginalisation. Brexit vettoed and the subsequent political fallout. The end of the NHS. A bonfire of rights. A new Italian PM and possibly new Eurozone economic crisis. Fillon or Le Pen and at last a real victory for the far right in Europe. The chance of Merkel’s Last Stand. Putin’s partnership with Assad and a new genocide we are powerless to stop. Erdogan pulling the plug on the EU door and unleashing a new wave of refugees onto European shores. The horror of ISIS both within the West and within the Middle East. Trump’s neo-fascism and rise of a New World Order. There is something in there for everyone to dread.

Which will it be? Probably something we have not yet foreseen such are these times.

Act 2 of Brexit in Westminstenders land is bound to be just as dramatic and of course, we leave 2016 in true soap fashion on a real cliff hanger.

All the more reason to enjoy the holiday period and break whatever your politics.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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whatwouldrondo · 13/12/2016 09:13

Mango I completely agree with you about the rather ignorant mumsnet snobbery about universities. They do serve different niches, but snobbery about universities that focus more on vocational courses misses the point, as does judging universities on student satisfaction above research capability. Unfortunately I suspect it is a snobbery and dogma shared by many politicians including Theresa May......

By the way not having heard of the Russell Group is not surprising, it is a lobbying group that some schools and parents have decided to use as shorthand for quality for the purposes of showing off.

whatwouldrondo · 13/12/2016 09:24

mistigris Civilians in Aleppo are going through what civilians in Syria have been enduring for a long time now. Some of the hideous atrocities, the use of chemical weapons over a long period etc have never even made it into the Press. It isn't just that the rest of the world stands and watches, sometimes it has even turned away.

MarjorieSimpson · 13/12/2016 09:28

The judging universities on clients students satisfaction is a different issue though.
It has come from the US and is seen as a way to evaluate if the teachings are good. Except that we all know that students will prefer easy work where they have little thinking to do rather than the hard ones where you need to put a lot of effort in.
So we now DO evaluate universities in that so it makes sense for the government to use that (with all the other indicators that Universities have to use!) to evaluate said Uni.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure where the level of research or how well students are doing afterwards once they are in a job is actually taken into account.

Peregrina · 13/12/2016 09:36

It is difficult to judge teaching quality. When I went to University the lectures weren't compulsory, but some lecturers managed to keep the lecture theatre full for the whole of the course, whereas with others, not so good, attendance dropped off to a handful after a few weeks.

But then you get places like LSE which are acknowledged as being leading universities in their field, but only score average results on student satisfaction.

PattyPenguin · 13/12/2016 09:42

Yes, what is going to happen?
"A Brexit betrayal is coming – but who will get the blame?"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/13/brexit-leave-voters-theresa-may-promise?CMP=share_btn_fb

Taking back control? Nope. Ownership of infrastructure? Nope. An economy that works for everyone? Nope.

Peregrina · 13/12/2016 10:00

Ah but that is The Guardian patty, so we aren't allowed to quote that because it's biased. We are only allowed to quote rabid pro-Brexit sites, because those are the only opinions which matter Grin.

merrymouse · 13/12/2016 10:05

The judging universities on clients students satisfaction is a different issue though.
It has come from the US and is seen as a way to evaluate if the teachings are good.

I think Trump Univerdity 98% terrific rating Grin

merrymouse · 13/12/2016 10:05

University!

Motheroffourdragons · 13/12/2016 10:13

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

merrymouse · 13/12/2016 10:22

There was always going to be 'Brexit betrayal' because the world moves on and the political landscape changes. It's likely that in different circumstances there would eventually have been a 'remain betrayal', except that without the rabble rousing of the Mail and Farage, I don't think there would have been such a rush to talk about 'enemies of the people'. Apart from anything else, I don't think many remainers were looking for a 'hard remain'.

It will take a long time to sort out Brexit and politics will move on, one way or another.

However, I think Cameron is as responsible as anyone else for selling the referendum as a definitive solution.

lurkinghusband · 13/12/2016 10:32

It will take a long time to sort out Brexit

Brexit will never be sorted - and that's that. It will just become a gravy train and shibboleth for coming politicians. Like inequality, or discrimination, there will always be more to be done to give us "Brexit". It is the war with Eurasia - or is it Eastasia.

merrymouse · 13/12/2016 10:36

Yes you are correct lurking - what was I thinking!? Grin

lurkinghusband · 13/12/2016 10:43

In fact (tinfoil hat on) maybe the entire Brexit momentum was artificially hyped up by a political class who needed a "cause" to be able to blame the coming shitstorm on.

Apparently, when the British ruled Hong Kong, the Chinese believed that the British were steeped in the knowledge of Feng Shui - the philosophy that energy passes over the earth and can be harnessed for human activity. The reason they believed the British must be masters at this art is our buildings were so godawaful, and so in the wrong place - everywhere - that the Chinese concluded only someone who really knew Feng Shui could be that bad. Allegedly this made the Chinese (a very superstitious people) unwilling to fight us ?

Brexit is starting to look like that ??????????

RedToothBrush · 13/12/2016 11:20

What you will find is that those are white British students who think that going away to University means party time. International students tend to be a bit older, and get their heads down and study. If anything, they miss out on the Social life

Agree with this. Its not just about students being stereotyped a certain way though. Brits have a real problem with how they are stereotyped too. I spent some time in Australia on a working holiday visa a few years back. Most jobs came with a strap line 'working holiday visas need not apply'. What I found worse, was the jobs which were open to those on a holiday visa often refused to take on British staff - it was something I heard from Australian employers first hand - favouring everyone else who was the same visa - even if their first language was not English (this included Germany, Ireland, Denmark, Canada, The Netherlands mainly though there were other countries involved in the scheme and it wasn't all EU countries). This was because the British were felt to be unreliable and lazy. They were thought to go to Australia to party and not to work so would go out drinking and not necessarily turn up for work. As someone who didn't fall into this category, this was deeply frustrating and I found frankly hugely embarrassing on a personal level.

In the context of the immigration debate, I find this personal experience perhaps isn't just restricted to my experience in Australia, but also seeps into Britain and adversely affects some and certainly I think comes into the thinking of others.

One of the themes repeated over and over has been the phrase 'hard working' and there does seem to be this particular perception of young people as somehow being lazy and unwilling to do certain jobs. Its a general attitude that those who are struggling aren't trying hard enough.

Of course its not that simple, but this attitude I do think drove the Brexit vote in no small part. There is a real generational divide on this, with the baby boomers not fully appreciating that the age they grew up in, gave more opportunity.

If there is opportunity then workers are motivated in the first place. At a time when there has been no real wage growth, its less about workers being lazy and more than they are demotivated and less incentivised to work harder. Cracking the whip harder won't help that. Nor will simply slamming the door in the face of immigration here.

Olenna Or you might only see that rents have gone up, the house next door is now a student let and keeps you up all night, the bus is full and you can't always get a seat, and the folk you bump into in the local shop don't seem to speak very good English so you don't think that they are genuinely here to study.

Nothing to do with local government cuts to the numbers of buses then. Its just there is more people. Obviously. (Oddly I can rarely remember being able to get a seat on the bus at university 20 years ago either).

The international students in years gone by tended to be in dedicated student accommodation whatever year they were in (British students tended to be in halls only for first year). However, the number of university owned student accommodation has declined over the last twenty years. I believe that my old university has less spaces than it did when I was there. This is a combination of old accommodation reaching the end of its life and not being able to build more due to planning issues, often including Nimbyism which fails to grasp that if student accommodation isn't built then students will still live somewhere, and much better it be in a managed block than in residential housing, and lack of available - and affordable - land.

The result being that overseas students are more likely to be in private housing now than they were, thus 'more visible' as well as there being an overall increase in numbers. Overseas students definitely are there to study more than British ones, yet are now tarred with the same brush, due to British culturally accepted and expected views.

Culturally we drink more younger, though the trend is for younger people today to drink LESS than when I was a student and when my parents were students. I can't help thinking there is a certain amount of projecting how we behaved when we were young on a new generation who are less able and don't want to do that.

There is also plenty of anti-social behaviour due to drink outside university towns, its just viewed in a different way. Its perfectly acceptable on a Friday and Saturday for someone to be piss in locals gardens after a hard week at work at a dead end job in some provisional backwater. Yet when students do it on a Tuesday, its the crime of century. And its find to behave like animals on holiday in Magala as 'its just once a year'. Except its not for the locals is it? This is acceptable anyway, because we spend all our money there and give them all jobs as a result (unlike those students who spend a fortune living here all year).

Culturally the British are far more anti-social both here and abroad yet we do not see this as a problem in any way. The standards we expect are hugely hypocritical and different for different social class and division.

We do not like looking in the mirror as a nation. There are lots of cultural issues driven by policy where WE are the problem. Not people coming here. We do not like having our own behaviour and prejudices pointed out.

Strangely, Germany which has had far more immigration has also had considerable wage growth.

Its not just Schrodinger's immigrant. Its Schrodinger's British young person.

If you are young, you are lazy and spoilt. If you are foreign you are taking all the jobs from those lazy and spoilt.

This goes DEEP into our collective identity, thinking and behaviour as a nation.

No one is really looking at it. Nothing will change ultimately post-brexit whatever Brexit is, if we don't address these exclusively BRITISH cultural problems and stereotyping.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 13/12/2016 11:22

www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/brexit-book-club

Someone is crowdfunding to send Ian Dunt's Brexit book, Brexit: What the hell happens next? to every MP.

OP posts:
lurkinghusband · 13/12/2016 11:23

No one is really looking at it. Nothing will change ultimately post-brexit whatever Brexit is, if we don't address these exclusively BRITISH cultural problems and stereotyping.

How can you start to address a millennia-old issue ? Tacitus could have written some of your post ...

Castelnaumansions · 13/12/2016 12:00

www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/southern-rail-strike-why-has-it-happened-explained-london-trains-doors-dispute-a7471381.html
'So why has an apparently minor operational issue been allowed to drag on for months? The reason: it is a deeply political dispute that has implications for the nation, with echoes of the Miners' Strike. '
www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/12/post-office-workers-to-stage-five-days-of-strikes-next-week
Transport strike + post office strike = old school revolution minus the military. Wink Put that in your pipe and smoke it Mrs Trade Union Act trousers! Wish the poor souls in the Amazon tent city could do the same.

whatwouldrondo · 13/12/2016 12:11

Red Whilst there might be less places in official university halls for overseas students, private luxury student accommodation has to a large extent taken up that slack. These blocks are springing up all over university cities and because they are more expensive few British, or even European students, who tend to want to muck in together in normal student housing, live there. Presumably those private sector companies are going to be hit by this proposal. It is big business, this is just one which one has blocks in many university cities and is opening new ones all the time. It houses 7000 overseas students www.crm-students.com/overseas-students/overseas-students/

TheNorthRemembers · 13/12/2016 12:11

Red I sometimes read a blog written by Eastern European expats (sorry if you are not a Brit living abroad, you are a migrant). I have to say their opinion about British workers chimes in with the Daily Fail. Although most of the comments would not bear print.

MarjorieSimpson · 13/12/2016 12:24

I think there is more than stereotyping going on.

When I arrived in the UK more than 15 years ago, the big bad wolf were asylum seekers. I remember clearly a discussion with co-workers where I was trying to understand what they meant by 'asylum seekers' and why they were such an issue. Naïve me was thinking a few people fleeing war torn countries or countries where being part of the opposition meant prison and torture. Nope, I was told clearly at the time, yes it's those people but actually they come 'just' for economic reasons. And no it doesn't include you because you are from Europe and its completely different.
The idea then moved from asylum seekers to (non EU) immigrants and then to all immigrants incl the ones from the EU (I still dont see people from the EU as immigrants but that's a whole other issue).
What is important there is that 1- the issue of immigration and the stereotyping has always been there
but 2- the evolution of the 'stereotype' has become more and more open to include anyone who isn't actually white british.
And none of the politicians have ever addressed that issue. Quite the contrary, they fed it.

whatwouldrondo · 13/12/2016 12:29

If you were going to stereotype overseas students, just as British students get stereotyped, they would be Chinese students. They might tend to neglect tenses because they do not have them in Mandarin or Cantonese, but perfectly able to make themselves understood in the shops which they spend a lot in because they are wealthy and status conscious, labels matter. They are more likely to be asleep in the library (there are Facebook pages dedicated to pictures of that stereotype ) than partying and live in a very nice private student hall with a gym and common room but no bar. And also more likely to be taking your Uber than your seat on a bus.

Both DDs shared with overseas students from China who did not remotely conform to the stereotype but it would certainly be more acccurate than Olennas

MarjorieSimpson · 13/12/2016 12:35

TheNorth, I would be careful about a blog written by 'expats'.

For me the difference between a migrant and an expat is that the migrant wants to be part of the country they are living in, want integration and are there for the long term (if not forever).
An expat knows they are there for a short time, they want to keep all their own ways of living and are often very critical of the country they are living in because they do things in such a 'weird way'.
I have worked with british expats abroad and their attitude made me leave said company. To have grown up some French expats, I know that some of them aren't much better.
I believe this is coming from the fact they dont come with the idea that they want to assimilate into the country (what's the point if you are there for 3 years?) so have very little knowledge of how the country really works and how people really think.
For example, It took me more than 10 years to actually 'get' at least some of the stuff about class in the Britain and how it affects so many areas of the society.
Expats will never get that which means they judge people according to the preconceived ideas they have coming in and according to what they can read etc... and that's daily Fail type of stuff.

I suspect Brits abroad of exactly the same thing. Or rather, I know they do the same....

dudleymcdudley · 13/12/2016 12:41

Marjoriesimpson I totally agree with you.

I believe we have a huge problem in this country with cultural racism and a sense of superiority. It's a particularly British problem I think because of the imperial past and having founded the USA and English being such a major language, combined with being geographically separate as an island.

Ironically Brexit will probably change things for future generations if the economy tanks and migration moves out rather than in. There will be nothing but history to feel superior about!

Mistigri · 13/12/2016 12:46

marjorie not sure there is such a hard and fast distinction between migranf and expat tbh; many people move countries with no idea of how permanent their residence will be. In practice many expats with families end up staying long-term due to the difficulty of changing school systems especially once you have teenagers.

I consider myself an immigrant but don't rule out returning to the UK at some point (although I won't do so unless and until I have French citizenship as I have no intention of giving up my permanent residence rights here - so if I return to the UK I guess I get to be an immigrant twice over).