Westministenders. For God sake Boris, is that the best plan you can come up with?

[RedToothBrush]

Its now five months from the referendum. Plans for leaving should be well advanced by now. Shouldn't they? We should have got past this ridiculous idea that we can have our cake and eat it. Yet the plan is a secret, well apart from when the EU leak things to the press or junior ministers let their underlings carry their notes for them.

A photo taken this week outside Downing Street, suggests that the ‘Have Cake And Eat It’ Plan really is seriously being considered by the government. This plan is 'clear' it has been spelt out many times by the government and yet no one has a fucking clue what it is apart from a car crash of utter nonsense, wishful thinking and fingers in the ears. Its so clear that Theresa May has admitted she is losing sleep over it, and has faith that God will steer us through via her moral compass (which I suspect to have been left on top of a rather large electro-magnet given her track record so far)

Still this, however, seems to be better than the ‘Fuck You’ Plan (or should that be 'Fuck EU') that is official UKIP policy and is to ignore a50 and leave the EU unilaterally. And possibly illegally, so no one will ever want to make an international agreement with the UK.

And this, is still at least better than ‘We Have No’ Plan that Labour have.

Other suggested plans are:
The ‘Lets Leave the UK and Screw Ourselves Another Way’ Plan as supported by the SNP which the majority of Scots seem to be against
The Welsh are quietly cultivating the ‘Shh Nobody Mention We Voted Leave But Are Now Going to be Difficult’ Plan as they suddenly realise they are about to be shafted financially and might lose the Welsh Assembly in the process.
NI might still go down the ‘Lets Unify Ireland and Start Another Chapter in Violence’ Plan though, the alternative might well be the ‘Lets Stay in the Union and Start Another Chapter in Violence’ Plan anyway, so they are screwed due to the immense thoughtfulness of the English.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems are all about the ‘Lets Just Not Do This and Instead Risk a Revolt’ Plan.

If anyone does actually have a coherent plan, then there are lots of parties who would love to hear from you.

Lets be honest about the secrecy though. Its not about the EU knowing our plans. They already know what all our options are, or more to the point, aren't. The government want to keep it out of parliament because they want to control it, and because they don't want the press to know. They do not want transparency, as they are so weak and so fearful that they will be shown up for what they are, even when there is no opposition.

So we are screwed. Unless somehow someone comes to their senses and puts it to the EU that a50 isn’t fit for purpose and that a new treaty must be done to respect the democratic will of the people and the EU let us go down that route (Hey didn’t I say that months ago?).

Tomorrow we have the completely pointless and costly vanity by-election for Zac Goldsmith. The referendum about Heathrow and not at all about Brexit. Latest betting 2/7 on Goldsmith and 5/2 on the Lib Dems. I think Goldsmith with his good looks will just sneak it, unless turnout is really low. But it will be close.

Sunday we have the Italian Referendum, which some have suggested would the Italian Bank Melt Down (and start of a new Eurozone Crisis) though many here say this fear is massively over stated through Brexit tinted spectacles. Sunday also sees the Austria Presidential Election Re-run with the Far Right Candidate currently looking like he has the slight edge.

A50. The Supreme Court case starts next week. Scotland say they have a veto. Wales say they are worried about the Devolution Problem. NI still might have their defeat in the High Court overturned and there is the Good Friday agreement. The Supreme Court might insist that the Great Repeal Act might need to be passed before we can invoke a50. And the plan if the government lose is merely a 3 line Bill which they want to rush through in 5 days no one would dare defy. Well except the Lib Dems are already saying they want amendments to ensure parliamentary scrutiny and what is the point of the Lords if they don't. So there is a fair old chance that if the government loses given the wider scope of the Supreme Court Case, a 3 line bill simply won’t cover everything it needs to.

We still don’t know if the ECJ might get involved. It seems the Republic of Ireland, might have a say in that too. An ECJ referral would mean a 4 to 8 month delay, even with the sensitivity and the importance of the case.

Don’t forget if you were planning on going/worried about it the 100,000 March on the Supreme Court is off. Due to not being planned in the first place although Leave.Eu will tell you different.

Speaking of the Great Repeal Act. This is supposed to be started in May. This would give it less than two years to be ready before we left the EU. Yet it has a load of hurdles to leap in its sheer complexity, and there is a real danger this will not be long enough. If not done correctly it has the potential to mean the legal system would “fall over”. This is basically the legal equivalent of when you mean yourself in a time travelling sci-fi creating a paradox which threatens the very existence of time itself.

A127. Another treaty, another challenge? Possibly, but maybe only a way to bargain for the EEA rather than something more. But it just shows the legal headache Brexit is. We still could end up in the ECJ on any number of other issues – not just a50. You know this legal headache the government is ignoring by having no lawyer in the Brexit Cabinet, and UKIP are just plan delusional about.

Anyway UKIP have a new leader. Paul Nuttalls. (sic – see Stuart Lee). He wants to privatise the NHS though he denies having said it either on camera or on his blog. Everytime anyone says ‘Paul Nuttalls to you, remember to say ‘Oh the one who wants to privatise the NHS?’ Just to make sure everyone is away that he wants to privatise the NHS. Repeat Ad nauseam. Hell this is what Labour are going to be doing, as they are bloody terrified. Why? Simple. He will, of course, be hugely popular despite this cos he’s got the right accent and says the ‘right things’. By ‘right things’ I mean cos he spouts utter bollocks. Which probably means he’s also electable seeing as utter bollocks is now political currency. Plus Labour are rather lacking in any policies, so utter bollocks policies easily fill the void.

Talking of utter bollocks, I haven’t mentioned Trump yet. The Greens have requested a recount and are supported by the Democrats, though they say they haven’t found anything dubious themselves yet. Trump says it’s a scam. Goebbels once said when telling the Big Lie accuse your opposition of what you are guilty of yourself, so I'm not betting either way given that is the political strategy Trump has employed with gusto. I dread to think of the mess that would cause if the recount came out in favour of Clinton.

So another couple of fun weeks on the cards, which will have you reaching for the gin and wondering if there is anyone left alive who actually gives a toss about what happens to real people and isn’t prepared to commit economic and democratic suicide.

Only another month to go before the 2016 Repeal Act comes into force. 2017 looks smashing.
Shamelessly stolen from David Allen Green

Sleaford and North Hykeham betting is troubling.

The Cons are by far and away the bookies favourite on 1/12 against UKIPs 15/2.

But where the money has actually gone differs. 43.68% placed on UKIP to 31.87% to the Conservatives.

Notable that lots more money going on the LDs than Labour though.

2015 Result
Conservative 34,805 56.2%
Labour 10,690 17.3%
UKIP 9,716 15.7%
Liberal Democrat 3,500 5.7%
Lincolnshire Independent 3,233 5.2%

(Worth noting the LDs came second in 2010 with 10,814 and 18.2% of the vote whilst Labour's vote is very similar to 2015 with 10,051 and 16.9%).

There is no danger of the LDs winning but v interesting to see Lab fourth in the betting.

Meanwhile, some wags have suggested that the Chinese Titanic experience (endorsed by one P. Mandelson) should be renamed "The Brexit" as it repeatedly crashes into an iceberg for tourist thrills.

I shit you not :

www.theregister.co.uk/2016/12/08/china_building_titanic_replica_iceberg_theme_park/

Red at work tales (their loss, our gain)
at the nightmare

When's Sleaford result due?

Sorry to go back to the jobs/wages thing when the thread's moved on, but I got waylaid.

The driving down of wages in unskilled/low skilled jobs was repeatedly dismissed as complete fallacy by some pro EU posters whenever it was mentioned by Leavers (do not wish to turn this into a 'sides' thing, just pointing it out).

It is an obvious result though of more workers available.

As pointed out by a few posters over last lot of posts, it's skilled work wage levels that are under threat now too.

People (generally, not specifically on here) repeatedly say they'd 'happily pay higher taxes to help the worse off' - but it may just be that it's higher food/consumer costs that we will all have to pay.
The driver of these higher costs though will be in part due to increased wages (wages need to increase to attract the staff if there is less availability from people prepared to work for less).

The driving down of wages due to rapid increase of migrants from Eastern EU, coupled with the benefits farce that Labour brought in around the same time created the perfect storm.
Now people (again, general, not directed at anyone in particular) trot out the 'British people aren't prepared to do the jobs' because it's become an accepted rhetoric.
Why would people work these jobs when they'd get less for working than they do on benefits?
Just the same as why wouldn't someone travel from Eastern EU to do the jobs for lowest wages and substandard conditions (as they're earning far more than they would in their home country).

(Also not benefits bashing btw, as I'm currently reliant on them after life changing events).

In simple terms

UK wages increase

Prices of UK goods increase

People buy cheaper imported goods

UK firms go out of business

Unemployment increases

Mensch, for all her other faults, is at least pro parliamentary scrutiny. She was vocal in her support for the High Court decision and described it as upholding the rights of the British people. So if nothing else, she's not going to get all 'openly gay ex Olympic fencer' on us. Times are such that we have to take our small consolations where they come!

And mango, what you don't seem to realise is that there isn't any have to about paying more to support UK workers doing agricultural jobs for wages high enough to induce them. If agriculture becomes too uncompetitive for consumers to be willing and able to pay the extra costs, there's no reason why it actually has to continue to exist.

Consumers vote with their pockets. Many though by no means all of us are willing and able to pay a bit more to support local produce, businesses etc. I try to do that now, to an extent. I could do more, but my food spend is a few quid higher a week than I would if I got everything from Aldi and I'm happy to do that (obviously it's good fortune giving me the ability to do that, most of us are only one car accident or cancer diagnosis away from being reliant on benefits). I'll continue trying to do so should we leave the EU. But if it gets more expensive, there'll come a point when I can't or won't afford it any more. That point will come sooner than it otherwise would if Brexit has even a short term negative impact on my finances. The same is true for most of us, and that is why one cannot simply assume that cheap EE labour will go, that will drive wages up, Brits do the jobs, we all pay more for our food but we're ok with doing it, everyone's happy.

That perfect storm you mention comprised a great deal more than EU expansion and tax credits. This is why it's not a question of putting an end to those and Brits will step in to do the work. It is not merely an obvious result of more workers available.

Mango Do you know any young people now? The ones I know actually have no problem finding temporary /part time jobs in the service sector either in the South or North, as long as they have some basic skills, especially in courtesy. They often find themselves working alongside people from the EU but that is because they could not find more local people to do the job.it is actually a lot easier to find that sort of work than it was when I was that age,I remember sending reams of applications off to hotels and restaurants and getting nowhere hence the fruit picking plus working for Mr Kipling, in a frozen meat factory (as a conveyor belt) and on check outs.

but it may just be that it's higher food/consumer costs that we will all have to pay.

The problem with that is

1. we don't have to pay higher prices if we can just buy food from abroad.
2. knock on effect on rest of economy if there is a price rise - do people just buy less food? Do they spend money on food, but less on other goods? How does that affect people working in other industries (who also have to spend more on food)?
3. can everyone afford to pay higher prices? Many are struggling now.
4. government could have higher tariffs on imports, but are they in a position to do this - wouldn't other countries just reciprocate?
5. it's not clear that politically the Brexit vote means that anyone is happy for the cost of living to rise, whatever they voted. How much will the government's actions be dictated by the need to win the next election?

The government will have to choose a course, but the Brexit vote doesn't actually make clear what that should be.

We have now been promised some kind of plan, but who knows what that means? The manifesto and policies of Cameron's government have been binned. We need to know what the government wants to do and why.

Mango I agree that supply & demand is a basic tenet of capitalism.
That is why I fear that free trade with India, China etc - the Tory Brexit dream - will worsen pay & conditions in the UK.

Losing low wage EE workers will:

• Raise food prices and some farmers will go broke
• Raise childcare costs, so some families will have to have an SAHP and survive on 1 income. Lone parents ??
• Raise care service costs, so services will be slashed, or taxes increased
• Make some firms unviable, so they go broke or move abroad.

Since benefit caps have been so popular with most voters and immigration is so unpopular, one attractive solution for TM would be to force people on benefits to do the lowest paid jobs, either as workfare, or by slashing / abolishing benefits for those who won't move to take any unskilled job anywhere.

I expect the gap to further widen between a highly paid, skilled professional 10% minority and the 90% precariat on low pay / workfare.

WTO rules mean that the UK must treat equally all countries with whom we don't have a Trade Agreement. The day after a hard Brexit, that's likely to be every country in the world.

So, tariffs would have to be applied equally to all countries, who would retaliate with their own tariffs against the UK
This would reduce funds to buy vital imports: food, raw materials, components for manufacturing firms

The UK was not self-sufficient in food during WW2 conditions, "Dig For Victory" and a 40 million population. The UK with 65 million now needs to import at least 40% of its food.

Hence, it is likely the UK would not apply tariffs, so food imports would rise and UK farmers would go broke

This made me smile. I say tomato, you say tomato...

The affordability is an important point. We do know there's very limited appetite amongst the British public for a Brexit that actually involves them suffering financially. There are some people who are willing to be worse off for it, but not enough. We can all have our own views about how realistic these desires are, but they're clearly widespread. They tell us something about how people might react if Brexit forces them to choose between cheaper imported food and more expensive home grown stuff.

Scone, scone.

irishpost.co.uk/how-do-you-pronounce-scone-new-map-of-ireland-and-britain-answers-the-age-old-question/

In related news, this map clearly shows that post Brexit, age old conflicts will make a mockery of the term 'united' kingdom.

But where the money has actually gone differs. 43.68% placed on UKIP to 31.87% to the Conservatives.

Call me simplistic but aren't the odds calculated as a function of the amount bet, rather than as an estimate of each party's chance of success? That's how the bookies make a profit isn't it?

After the year we've had, I'm not trying to call anything, but it wouldn't make much sense to bet on the Tories in that seat would it? You'd get crap odds. Whereas UKIP are the sort of thing you might stick a cheeky fiver on.

There's not enough alcohol in the house to allow me to sit through Farage, Mensch and Will Self all on TV at the same time.

Merrymouse:
And how would one go about doing any of that in Syria?
First you defeat ISIS by overwhelming military force.

www.bbc.com/news/business-38219881

I don't know if this was posted before.
It's about rising numbers of working poor and how high rent and the housing shortage squeeze those on low wages.

'Analysis of the recent Autumn Statement by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) suggested workers would feel the squeeze on pay for more than a decade - earning less in real terms in 2021 than they did in 2008.

The Resolution Foundation also suggested that the biggest losers between now and 2020 would be lower income families, with the poorest third likely to see incomes drop.

The JRF study suggested that in-work poverty was driven by housing costs, especially in the private rented sector, where the numbers living in poverty had doubled to 4.5 million in a decade.

This was the key factor behind London recording the highest poverty rate at 27% - 6% above the UK average, according to the study.

A recent report by property agent Savills forecast that rents across the UK would rise considerably faster than house prices over the next five years. It predicted that rents will go up by 19% between now and 2021, while house prices will only rise by 13%.'

Obviously some people are getting very rich in this scenario.

First you defeat ISIS by overwhelming military force.

Leaving aside whether it is possible to beat terrorism by overwhelming military force, that is pretty much the plan in any war. There have been wars in the Middle East for quite a long time, and yet conflict continues.

We have been here before in Iraq. It's one thing winning a war, quite another maintaining peace.

Mango:

All that has changed over the last 10 or so years is that Eastern Europeans were more willing to follow that work with less attractive packages (and why wouldn't they, when the pay/package was worth more than in their home country?).
As an 18-20 yr old I'd be guaranteed a good wage & good digs with meals included as we were needed to fill the employment in these low/unskilled jobs.
Nowadays that isn't the case because there's plenty of folk available and willing to do it for less
I may be wrong about this as I gleaned the information from another thread, but when it comes to seasonal work in the UK iirc there are issues related to the welfare system - seasonal work means people have to stop receiving whatever assistance they are on and sign up all over again once the season has passed. (Again I may be wrong about this).

Merrymouse -
ISIS in its incarnation in Syria and Iraq is not 'terrorism'. It is an armed force occupying large areas of both countries, occupying cities, imposing rule by means of well organised thugs on the ground, using prisons, operating infrastructure (power plants, etc) and selling oil. It is a rule of terror but it is not terrorism as in bombing the Underground or killing people in a theatre.

We have been here before in Iraq. It's one thing winning a war, quite another maintaining peace.
That war was not really won. It was started but not finished, despite the US pulling out its forces with great fanfare.

The US has recently become really good at starting wars and revolutions and leaving chaos in its wake. See for example Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Syria, Egypt, and Ukraine.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects
Sleaford & North Hykeham expected to declare between 02:00 and 04:00 Friday morning.

I will definitely be going to bed unlike last week.

I went to bed last week, thinking the RP result would still be a couple of hours away, only to find that it was declared about half an hour later.