Westministenders. For God sake Boris, is that the best plan you can come up with?

[RedToothBrush]

Its now five months from the referendum. Plans for leaving should be well advanced by now. Shouldn't they? We should have got past this ridiculous idea that we can have our cake and eat it. Yet the plan is a secret, well apart from when the EU leak things to the press or junior ministers let their underlings carry their notes for them.

A photo taken this week outside Downing Street, suggests that the ‘Have Cake And Eat It’ Plan really is seriously being considered by the government. This plan is 'clear' it has been spelt out many times by the government and yet no one has a fucking clue what it is apart from a car crash of utter nonsense, wishful thinking and fingers in the ears. Its so clear that Theresa May has admitted she is losing sleep over it, and has faith that God will steer us through via her moral compass (which I suspect to have been left on top of a rather large electro-magnet given her track record so far)

Still this, however, seems to be better than the ‘Fuck You’ Plan (or should that be 'Fuck EU') that is official UKIP policy and is to ignore a50 and leave the EU unilaterally. And possibly illegally, so no one will ever want to make an international agreement with the UK.

And this, is still at least better than ‘We Have No’ Plan that Labour have.

Other suggested plans are:
The ‘Lets Leave the UK and Screw Ourselves Another Way’ Plan as supported by the SNP which the majority of Scots seem to be against
The Welsh are quietly cultivating the ‘Shh Nobody Mention We Voted Leave But Are Now Going to be Difficult’ Plan as they suddenly realise they are about to be shafted financially and might lose the Welsh Assembly in the process.
NI might still go down the ‘Lets Unify Ireland and Start Another Chapter in Violence’ Plan though, the alternative might well be the ‘Lets Stay in the Union and Start Another Chapter in Violence’ Plan anyway, so they are screwed due to the immense thoughtfulness of the English.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems are all about the ‘Lets Just Not Do This and Instead Risk a Revolt’ Plan.

If anyone does actually have a coherent plan, then there are lots of parties who would love to hear from you.

Lets be honest about the secrecy though. Its not about the EU knowing our plans. They already know what all our options are, or more to the point, aren't. The government want to keep it out of parliament because they want to control it, and because they don't want the press to know. They do not want transparency, as they are so weak and so fearful that they will be shown up for what they are, even when there is no opposition.

So we are screwed. Unless somehow someone comes to their senses and puts it to the EU that a50 isn’t fit for purpose and that a new treaty must be done to respect the democratic will of the people and the EU let us go down that route (Hey didn’t I say that months ago?).

Tomorrow we have the completely pointless and costly vanity by-election for Zac Goldsmith. The referendum about Heathrow and not at all about Brexit. Latest betting 2/7 on Goldsmith and 5/2 on the Lib Dems. I think Goldsmith with his good looks will just sneak it, unless turnout is really low. But it will be close.

Sunday we have the Italian Referendum, which some have suggested would the Italian Bank Melt Down (and start of a new Eurozone Crisis) though many here say this fear is massively over stated through Brexit tinted spectacles. Sunday also sees the Austria Presidential Election Re-run with the Far Right Candidate currently looking like he has the slight edge.

A50. The Supreme Court case starts next week. Scotland say they have a veto. Wales say they are worried about the Devolution Problem. NI still might have their defeat in the High Court overturned and there is the Good Friday agreement. The Supreme Court might insist that the Great Repeal Act might need to be passed before we can invoke a50. And the plan if the government lose is merely a 3 line Bill which they want to rush through in 5 days no one would dare defy. Well except the Lib Dems are already saying they want amendments to ensure parliamentary scrutiny and what is the point of the Lords if they don't. So there is a fair old chance that if the government loses given the wider scope of the Supreme Court Case, a 3 line bill simply won’t cover everything it needs to.

We still don’t know if the ECJ might get involved. It seems the Republic of Ireland, might have a say in that too. An ECJ referral would mean a 4 to 8 month delay, even with the sensitivity and the importance of the case.

Don’t forget if you were planning on going/worried about it the 100,000 March on the Supreme Court is off. Due to not being planned in the first place although Leave.Eu will tell you different.

Speaking of the Great Repeal Act. This is supposed to be started in May. This would give it less than two years to be ready before we left the EU. Yet it has a load of hurdles to leap in its sheer complexity, and there is a real danger this will not be long enough. If not done correctly it has the potential to mean the legal system would “fall over”. This is basically the legal equivalent of when you mean yourself in a time travelling sci-fi creating a paradox which threatens the very existence of time itself.

A127. Another treaty, another challenge? Possibly, but maybe only a way to bargain for the EEA rather than something more. But it just shows the legal headache Brexit is. We still could end up in the ECJ on any number of other issues – not just a50. You know this legal headache the government is ignoring by having no lawyer in the Brexit Cabinet, and UKIP are just plan delusional about.

Anyway UKIP have a new leader. Paul Nuttalls. (sic – see Stuart Lee). He wants to privatise the NHS though he denies having said it either on camera or on his blog. Everytime anyone says ‘Paul Nuttalls to you, remember to say ‘Oh the one who wants to privatise the NHS?’ Just to make sure everyone is away that he wants to privatise the NHS. Repeat Ad nauseam. Hell this is what Labour are going to be doing, as they are bloody terrified. Why? Simple. He will, of course, be hugely popular despite this cos he’s got the right accent and says the ‘right things’. By ‘right things’ I mean cos he spouts utter bollocks. Which probably means he’s also electable seeing as utter bollocks is now political currency. Plus Labour are rather lacking in any policies, so utter bollocks policies easily fill the void.

Talking of utter bollocks, I haven’t mentioned Trump yet. The Greens have requested a recount and are supported by the Democrats, though they say they haven’t found anything dubious themselves yet. Trump says it’s a scam. Goebbels once said when telling the Big Lie accuse your opposition of what you are guilty of yourself, so I'm not betting either way given that is the political strategy Trump has employed with gusto. I dread to think of the mess that would cause if the recount came out in favour of Clinton.

So another couple of fun weeks on the cards, which will have you reaching for the gin and wondering if there is anyone left alive who actually gives a toss about what happens to real people and isn’t prepared to commit economic and democratic suicide.

Only another month to go before the 2016 Repeal Act comes into force. 2017 looks smashing.
Shamelessly stolen from David Allen Green

Short term seasonal work has always been done by large groups of people relocating for the season - be that from within the uk or from abroad.

When I initially left home I used to follow the short term seasonal work in waitressing/bar work etc.

All that has changed over the last 10 or so years is that Eastern Europeans were more willing to follow that work with less attractive packages (and why wouldn't they, when the pay/package was worth more than in their home country?).
As an 18-20 yr old I'd be guaranteed a good wage & good digs with meals included as we were needed to fill the employment in these low/unskilled jobs.
Nowadays that isn't the case because there's plenty of folk available and willing to do it for less.

Law and policy ‏@Lawandpolicy
Government may still win this Article 50 appeal but the government QC in reply is not having a good afternoon.

Mango

The real problem with the minimum wage is how it affects small businesses and employers.

One of my previous jobs was for a company with 3 employees and my boss. The introduction of pensions was a huge deal when he was already struggling with the implications of the 2008 crisis and cuts to the public sector (and third party sector) as well as technology changes. He was also competing with multi-nationals from the EU who could provide services for less than he could buy the raw materials. He was slow to react to these changes and to try and evolve the business and when I left it was a relief to him as he was likely to have to lose one of us anyway.

I was doing a skilled job, but was on less than £8 an hour. The minimum wage will over take what I was on soon. For what I was doing and the responsibility I had this was quite frankly taking the piss (but I enjoyed what I did and suffered bullying from him over a number of years which left me feel like I couldn't do better and this is something I've still not got over).

There is no way he could have afforded to put up my wages in those circumstances. As it is I believe he did go out of business anyway after I left, but if he had managed to keep trading then there would be no change for years in what he paid. Yes maybe that's his failing but its a pattern that has occurred throughout a lot of industries - he had been doing what he had for 20 years very successfully. It was a perfect storm of problems in addition which added up to him no longer making a profit. One that people in the bottom end of the pay brackets have felt most.

The problem in many respects was putting the burden onto small businesses to carry. Small businesses account for a huge proportion of UK jobs. I frequently see comments about businesses on MN about not being fair to employees or in the case of HR issues or H&S issues telling posters to go to their HR department or to raise it somehow with management which is simply impossible in such set ups. There seems to be this ignorance and gap in thinking when it comes to small business to the point that its almost incomprehensible to many.

In terms of there being a 'lost decade' not seen since the 1860s in wage growth (which Carney has talked about), this is where it is, and this is why a lot of people want to cut legislation to ease it. Yet it is NOT EU related. And big business is not taking its share of the burden here and will profit most from these cuts not the small businesses. And that still just leaves us with problems over pensions in the future or people facing outright poverty and frankly destitution in old age that we have not seen since Victorian times if we don't solve the problem and plan for that now.

Farms are often in this grouping of small businesses. There are large scale employers but more often than not they are small employers. Many are reliant on agencies to provide temporary staff too now rather than being able to employ directly and locally, so even if workers are not eligible for pensions there is still another party taking a cut and inflating wages to a level that makes it difficult to afford.

My point is that I do not see HOW small businesses CAN pay more? Its just not possible for them to do. They are squeezed by the multi-nationals. The only way to stop this is to either pay for some of these benefits by making them only applicable to larger businesses and somehow get the state to apply them to workers at small businesses that way really. Protectionism to stop British business to import and under cut British producers is not viable nor in line with either WTO or EU provisions.

So it leaves us really screwed between a rock and a hard place. The blame is on the EU but its domestic policy and British consumer buying patterns which are largely to blame. We have a lack of awareness of where things come from and how they benefit us as a society. Few people thing about how buying tomatoes in January or raspberries from abroad when they are in season in Scotland affect us. We are very ignorant on this type of thing and only see buying things on the basis of the ticket price rather than how supporting certain industries at a slightly inflated cost, costs us less in the end. Is this for government to push? I'm not sure it is actually. This type of awareness of economics is cultural. Interestingly France and Germany in terms of their shopping baskets culturally don't do the same thing in the same way. There is no 'buy german' government strategy. They just do it, and culturally are less consumerist and more modest in their lifestyle compared to the UK. This is reflected in everything from fashion to food.

On a personal level I'm worried for a number of personal reason, not least I am unlikely to be able to get a job at more than minimum wage when/if I return to work. The incentive to do anything related to my experience is very much taken away from me. What's the point in using my skills rather than working in an area I'm skilled and the government has spent money investing in me when I'm not going to earn any more anyway? Its de-motivational and not good for productivity rates which the government seem keen to improve. I'm in a fortunate position due to DH but without him I'm utterly screwed. There are social implications here too, which for other people in a similar position are not good.

As a rule I'm a hard worker, but I've faced real trouble in another job for that, because of again, cultural attitudes to that. British workers do not like others who 'do' or 'show them up'. I do feel after years of it, 'what's the point'. I think our work places are full of people who are utterly demoralised individuals which is costing out society in many ways: from lack of production, to lack of achievement and incentive, to mental health issues that stem from this.

But despite all this I don't see how reversing changes re: pensions helps long term nor how reversing things like maternity rights helps. Nor do I see small businesses as being exploitative given the disproportionate share of the burden they are taking on compared with big business. Culturally, I see nothing going on that going to change patterns that make the problem worse either. And this is all blamed on the EU rather than the government taking a look at the overall picture in a totally different way which actually identifies the real core issues (which include education in no small part)

The reality is that we do not need people working 8hours a day, 5 days a week. There just isn't enough work to employ everyone doing that.

Finland wants to introduce a universal wage (but I think Australia and Switzerland are doing something similar) instead of going on and on about benefits etc...
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/finland-to-consider-introducing-universal-basic-income-in-2017-a6963321.html

Red why do you think that small companies are hit more? Why is it that they can't compete with the multinationals, assuming they are producing the same thing in the same country?
Is that actually the small and medium companies are now more suited to specific type of activities (services ?) rather than production etc..?
But some are still working in those areas where they have to compete with India, China etc?

Taking things to an extreme, Brexit could allow the government to ignore EU labour regulations and increase immigrant labour.

small companies are hit more because they have less room for manoeuvre. They have less access to capital and smaller margins.

In the end they make the same judgements that anyone does about hiring labour: do I get a cleaner/pay for child care/pay somebody to fix my dishwasher, or do I do it myself or do without?

And lower economies of scale.

It's much more complicated than that mango; many things have changed in the last decade, including accommodation becoming significantly more expensive. This means that more people rely partly on in-work benefits such as housing benefit, which in turn makes it harder to take insecure seasonal work because of the issues that an irregular income causes for benefits claimants.

Employment rates are also very high in the south of the UK.

I don't know to what extent seasonal labour patterns have changed in the last decade (my guess would be more EU and fewer non-EU seasonal workers being the main change). I have a Senegalese friend who used to do cherry picking in the UK every year - this would be about 15 years ago and it was already difficult for farmers to find local labour.

Interestingly France and Germany in terms of their shopping baskets culturally don't do the same thing in the same way. There is no 'buy german' government strategy. They just do it, and culturally are less consumerist and more modest in their lifestyle compared to the UK. This is reflected in everything from fashion to food.

I can't comment on Germany but this is very true of French food buying. It's surprisingly hard to find out of season produce imported from the other hemisphere - it's becoming easier, but most UK shoppers are amazed at how seasonal supermarket veg counters are here. A lot of what we buy is produced locally, and people will pay more for it. Even in the deprived post-industrial town where my son is at school, it's possible for small farmers to make a living selling free-range chickens for 15€ versus 5€ for a Lidl bird.

All that has changed over the last 10 or so years is that Eastern Europeans were more willing to follow that work with less attractive packages (and why wouldn't they, when the pay/package was worth more than in their home country?).

This isn't really true. Both agriculture and the employment market generally have changed quite a lot over the past decade or two. The main issue is that the 'squeeze' now, if you like, is harder than it was pre-accession. RTB goes into this in much more detail, and it's very significant.

Fundamentally, if people are trying to argue that despite the significant changes we have seen since the accession of Poland et al, removing influxes of cheap EE labour will lead to British citizens doing the same jobs, either for the same wages or for higher wages if there's a labour shortage, they need to tell us how.

Mango Higher wages mean higher prices.
So the precariat have to pay more for food - and the 40%+ of imported food is starting to cost more anyway, with the weaker pound.
However, a trade deal with India would mean far more workers from there, driving down wages again.

For manufactured goods, wages & working conditions are far worse in India, China etc than in Eastern Europe.
UK manufacturing is currently protected by EU barriers, but mostly can't compete with the rest of the world on equal terms - globalisation in the raw.
e.g. China would demand a deal that will allow them to dump steel - currently banned by the EU - which will kill off Port Talbot and the remains of the UK steel industry.

All the unemployed former manufacturing workers will drive down wages again.

Also a very good point about housing costs which I seem to have cross posted with there. Don't underestimate how significant that has been in rendering us uncompetitive internationally. Our basic costs of living are too high. This has become a much bigger problem than it was in 2004, albeit it was an issue even then. EE workers engaged in seasonal farm labour insulate themselves from this to some extent by densely occupying very cheap accommodation. In a way that British people with limited employment prospects, ie the only ones who are realistically likely to even consider such work, are much less likely to even be able to consider, let alone accept.

Not only that Mistigri but as you doubtless know there is a huge amount of television time devoted to the celebration of regional food. Every day the lunchtime news has a section on "patrimoine" where they explore stories about local crops and local dishes (amongst other things).

a trade deal with India would mean far more workers from there, driving down wages again

As I understand it the Indians are pushing for greater access for highly-skilled professionals, not cabbage-pickers.

Will Self on Question Time with Nigel Farage

will-self.com/2016/12/08/will-self-on-question-time-with-nigel-farage/

Will Self is going to be joined by Dr Sarah Wollaston MP, Richard Burgon MP, Nigel Farage MEP, and Louise Mensch on Question Time tonight on BBC1 at 10.45pm.

Thanks lurking,will definitely be recording that one!

Nigel Farage again? Louise Mensch? I know they are waiting for the phone call, but really?

The anger in the UK should be directed at those who have been in power since the 2008 crash:

The UK, Greece and Portugal were the only 3 OECD countries that saw real wages fall

with the UK & Greece being joint worst.
All other EU countries saw real rises, with Germany & France leading. They did so with shorter working hours, btw

TUC report:
http://www.finfacts.ie/Irishfinancee_news/articleDetail.php?UK-Greece-real-wages-dip-10-in-8-years-Germany-up-14-671

Farage and Mensch. Christ, that will guarantee that I head off to bed with my rage levels nicely topped up.

China is already feeling the effects of a growing educated / middle class refusing to accept poor wages and working conditions. Employers are complaining of labour shortages and parts of production are moving to economies where labour is cheaper. They are moving up the value chain and it is explicit government strategy to move into those areas of high tech / science related industries where we have had competitive advantage. Global competition is intensifying not opening up to buccaneering Brexiteers..........

mobile.twitter.com/IanDunt/status/806905911059054593

Leave.eu 'press release' on Anna Soubrey.

Apparently spelling is just for elitist experts.

Are they deliberately trolling with bad spelling, hopeless, or both?

Farage and Mensch

and Will Self who has a nice line in nasally delivered put downs and not being flapped ...

("The Quantity Theory of Insanity" is one of the best books of the 1990s ....)

Tuckers Indian workers in high tech firms drive down wages a LOT when they come in numbers.
iirc, India produces about a million STEM graduates per year, all English-speaking.

I've seen wages crash with IT and CAE / CAD suppliers in the UK and USA, as they import more Indian workers.
However, within a few years, many firms just relocate their tech centre there - with all the jobs except HQ & sales.

I think it's one to watch on iplayer, once it's been prescreened by braver people.

Yes, lurking, I was about to say the same thing (although whether he can compensate for the presence of Mensch and Farage on the same panel is debatable ).

Question Time tonight looks something like a political version of Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas.

Jack is Farage. Sandy Claws May. And Sally is Mensch. I guess Ooggie Boogie must be the EU.

Halloween Town is a fantasy world filled with citizens such as deformed monsters, ghosts, ghouls, goblins, zombies, mummies, vampires, werewolves and witches. Jack Skellington, a skeleton with the title of "Pumpkin King", leads them in organizing the annual Halloween holiday. However, Jack reveals he has grown weary of the same routine year after year, and wants something new. Wandering dejectedly in the woods, he stumbles across seven trees containing doors leading to towns representing various holidays, and accidentally opens a portal to Christmas Town. Impressed by the bright and cheery feeling and style of Christmas, Jack presents his findings and his understanding of Christmas, to the Halloween Town residents. However, they fail to grasp his meaning and compare everything to their ideas of Halloween. Jack is dismayed that no one understands the feeling of Christmas, and obsessively studies the holiday but fails to find any further explanation of it. He ultimately decides that it's unfair for Christmas Town alone to enjoy the feeling and announces that he and the citizens of Halloween Town will take over Christmas this year.

Jack's obsession with Christmas leads him to usurp the role of "Sandy Claws". Every resident is assigned a task, while Sally, a beautiful rag doll woman, falls in love with Jack. However, after a vision of a burning Christmas tree, she alone realizes that his plans to run Christmas will become disastrous, but has no luck convincing him. Jack assigns Lock, Shock and Barrel, a trio of mischievous trick-or-treating children, to abduct Santa and bring him back to Halloween Town. Against Jack's wishes and largely for their amusement, the trio delivers Santa to Oogie Boogie, a gambling-addict bogeyman, who plots to play a game with Santa's life at stake.

Christmas Eve arrives and after Sally's attempts to stop Jack fail, Jack departs in a coffin-shaped sleigh pulled by skeletal reindeer, guided by his dog Zero. Jack begins to deliver presents to children around the world, but the Halloween-styled gifts only terrify the recipients. Jack is eventually shot down by the military and crash-lands in a cemetery unharmed. Although he is depressed by the failure of his plan, he quickly regains his old spirit, and returns to Halloween Town to rectify his actions.