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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/11/2016 11:17

Bloody hell where are we up to?

Trump is preparing for the White House. He has refused to give up his assets which will be a conflict of interest and maybe lead to corruption. He has just settled a fraud case out of court. One of the cases of illegal sexual behaviour has collapsed after the claimant was too afraid to proceed. His VP believes in stopping all abortions by any means necessary and beliefs in gay conversion therapy. He has appointed a white supremacist as his chief strategist. His attorney general is regarded as amnesty’s biggest enemy opposing just about all human rights bills as a senator. He has also been dogged by accusations of racism. His national security advisor supports torture techniques such as water boarding. These three appointments have been greeted with delight from the former leader of the KKK.

Man of the people, Nigel Farage is trying to undermine Theresa May and sideline the government by cozying up to Trump in front of a couple of gold doors. His long term intentions look increasingly wider than purely being about the EU and ever more sinister in nature. He is in danger of doing a rather good Moseley impression.

Meanwhile rumours persist of voter suppression and dubious election practices in several key states, which are hugely undemocratic and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote.

These are all things you are supposed to ignore, and are just expected to believe that everything is okay and that it’s the fault of liberals for standing up for discrimination and that this discrimination is none existent in the first place. Unless your Head of State is named Merkel.

But don’t worry, our Head of State is set to intervene though. The Queen is due to invite Trump to Windsor and is our secret weapon. Like Kate is our secret Brexit weapon. The cost of this intervention? A £396million refurb of Buck Pally. If she can pull that off, hell, let’s just send her to Brussels instead of Johnson. We might get some good will even if Philip drops a clanger about prosecco.

Back in the UK, the a50 saga drags on. The NI case now joins the ‘People’s Challenge’ at the Supreme Court, as well as new representation coming from both the Scottish Government and Welsh assembly. The government defence has changed, with one of the key changes has been to describe our rights under the EU as different by calling them “internationally established rights” and therefore different to domestic rights. They now say that they previously agreed with the claimant that a50 was irrevocable, their position is now that whether it is irrevocable or revocable is irrelevant to the strength of the case, effectively leaving it open for the devolved governments to pursue this line.

Previously it was assumed that this would require a referral to the ECJ. It is not necessarily the case. The situation is more complex as was outlined in a HoC Library Briefing. In this, it states a referral might be legal unavoidable as otherwise could be open to damages, might not be needed as the Supreme Court itself holds the power to decide whether a50 is reversible or not or that the Supreme Court does not have the authority to refer until after a50 has been triggered (which changes the dynamics of things).

Even then, it might prove to be legally possible but politically impossible to reverse, it might require a unanimous agreement to reverse by the other 27 which might enforce conditions in doing so.

Several senior Conservatives have called for the government to drop the appeal. Oliver Letwin, argues that it is might up the government up to being vetoed by the devolved assemblies, Dominic Grieve thinks its simply unlikely to win, and Edward Garnier has said it leaves “an opportunity for ill motivated people to attack the judiciary and misconstrue the motives of both parties to the lawsuit”.

One of the Supreme Court judges has been criticised for outlining the case to law students in a speech due to misreporting. In the speech she said that the referendum was not legally binding before going on to explain that an act of parliament to trigger a50 might not be enough and that the Great Repeal Act might have to be passed to replace the European Communities Act before we can notify the EU of our intent to leave if the defense case holds up before she went on to explain the government’s position. Another Supreme Court judge has been called to excuse himself after his wife made pro-EU tweets as obviously by nature of being married, is completely biased.

A former lord chief justice has now warned that Liz Truss has caused a “constitutional breakdown” and may have broken the law by failing to defend judges.

I’m putting money on the live video feed of the Supreme Court breaking due to ‘unprecedented demand’. This of course is a conspiracy.

At the same time a Three Line Bill for a50 is prepared to put to the HoC with the intention that the HoC and HoL would not ‘dare defy it’. Except the Lib Dem Lords are suggesting they see no reason why they shouldn’t table an amendment that ensures parliamentary scrutiny and have consulted a constitutional lawyer over the matter. The feeling is that, if they don’t do this, then what is the point of the HoL? At the same time, measures to restrict the powers of the HoL over statutory instruments have also been dropped. This seems to be a good thing given the timing, until you find out the apparent reason; they apparently will need these powers to enact the Great Repeal Act.

Elsewhere a who’s who of the right of the Tory Party – 60 MPs – back a call to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, whilst Hammond regards himself as the last voice of sanity in the Cabinet over the realistic challenges of Brexit.

Hammond is to deliver his Autumn Statement this week, which looks set to include tax breaks to those earning over £43,000 which Shadow Chancellor McDonnell agrees with. McDonnell of course has been doing a lot of agreeing with the government lately. Austerity looks unlikely to end. The NHS seems likely to as well.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Damien Green has been wetting his pants at the exciting opportunity to expand the gig economy. The growth of which I think few will argue has been a hugely contributory factor to feelings that drove the Leave vote. More Tory MPs have rebelled on cuts to disability benefits calling them cruel.

Liz Truss has had a riot from prisoners and a revolt from the prison staff in addition to her problems

Amber Rudd has been forced to admit there are secret files on the miners’ strike and Orgreave clashes which she did not take into consideration whilst making the Orgreave decision. Is that the faint whiff of a cover up? She has also had the largest victims charity withdraw its support from the child abuse inquiry initiated by May.

Arron Banks has a plan to ‘Drain the Swamp’ of British politics from corruption. This seems to ignore the incredible antics of Liam Fox and instead focus on some of the most pro-remain voices of Clegg, Soubry and Lammy. This happens just as UKIP have been accused in a EU audit, which Farage does not think are carried out frequency enough, that it has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds improperly and may have to refund this. This is unfair. Apparently. In other UKIP’s news, the likely leader, Paul Nuttall, has said on the day that Aleppo’s last hospital was destroyed that he thinks Putin is behaving appropriately in Syria. Post-Truth indeed.

What we need is accountability for the national interest. Not any of this shit of blaming liberalism for the party political self interest of the last 40 years.

In light relief, Ed Balls might be popular at dancing but when it comes to leader of Labour he polls even worse than Corbyn. A fate only shared by Tony Blair. So it could be worse…

Anyway, I know there are few heads going down here, so I’m going to leave you with a link to a quote from Vaclav Havel:
www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/12/vacla-havel-index-on-censorship-ludvik-vakulik/
Vaclav Havel: "We became dissidents without actually knowing how"

OP posts:
Thread gallery
21
merrymouse · 27/11/2016 21:46

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/27/aleppo-raf-aid-mps-theresa-may

Meanwhile, aid drops could bring conflict with Russia, but letter signed by many prominent MPs.

SwedishEdith · 27/11/2016 22:00

Some good responses to Trump's attempts to pervert truth - again. He has, of course just supported the argument for a recount.

Kyle Griffin Retweeted Donald J. Trump
If Trump believes millions voted illegally, isn't that grounds for a nationwide recount?

Matthew Yglesias Retweeted Donald J. Trump
Trump really does not want people talking about his ongoing scheme to profit personally from political office at the country's expense.

Jon Favreau ‏@jonfavs 48m48 minutes ago
Trump doesn't care if we think he's telling the truth - he just wants his supporters to doubt that anyone's telling the truth.

Corcory · 27/11/2016 22:22

The truth and Trump do not go together. He is a complete ass. I had imagined that his advisors would have stopped him tweeting completely as they did in the run up to the election. He is such a nasty piece of work he really is.

mathanxiety · 28/11/2016 03:29

Just as an aside, I do not think Germany's gas arrives via Turkey.

Iirc, there are pipelines directly from Russia via Poland and Belarus, and possibly Ukraine. The Nordstream (Baltic undersea route) pipeline supplies gas directly from Vyborg near St Petersburg to Greifswald on the German Baltic coast. The South Stream project (Black Sea to Bulgaria, then to Serbia and points north) was abandoned afaik. It would have bypassed Turkey anyway, but there is a proposal for a Turkish pipe.

Mistigri · 28/11/2016 07:38

If Germany's natural gas came via Turkey it would be taking a very scenic route. Most of it's gas imports come from Russia, Norway and the Netherlands in that order (source: IEA). This sounds like one of those made-up factoids repeated by the brexit echochamber without anyone thinking to check.

LurkingHusband · 28/11/2016 08:15

Fuel for the fire

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38126899

The government is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU, the BBC has learned.
Lawyers say uncertainty over the UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped from taking Britain out of the single market.
They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide.
But the government said EEA membership ends when the UK leaves the EU.

(contd)

GlassOfPort · 28/11/2016 08:21

Regarding attitudes to the EU outside of the UK, I have in the past lived in various European countries and while I heard the occasional grumble about it being a wasteful and bureaucratic institution, the view of the EU as a threat to local sovreignty is one I have only encountered here.

mupperoon · 28/11/2016 08:53

euobserver.com/opinion/136009

This article makes a lot of sense. My Leave voting dad started to hate the EU after Maastricht. I don't agree with all of it but the intransigence of EU leadership in the face of the need to reform is the mirror image of our own God-fearing stubborn leadership.

Mistigri · 28/11/2016 09:46

I've lived in France for 18 years and in that time I have met one person who would favour leaving the EU (and this is in a town where the FN does quite well).

The FN is mainly anti North Africans not Europeans anyway. I seriously doubt that the FN would be capable of taking france out of Europe even if they got into power. They're much like Ukip, with a popular and TV friendly leadership but with a complete intellectual vacuum underneath.

RedToothBrush · 28/11/2016 12:21

Tim Shipman
‏@ShippersUnbound
Interesting: "Bookmakers William Hill believe Article 50 will not be triggered before the end of March 2017"

Law and policy ‏@Lawandpolicy Nov 25
Law and policy Retweeted Tim Shipman
Given recent bookmakers' performance, this must be surest sign Article 50 will be triggered before end of March 2017.

Fed up of a50?

How about a127 then? We have another legal challenge....

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38126899?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter
Brexit: Legal battle over UK's single market membership

Lawyers say uncertainty over the UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped from taking Britain out of the single market.

They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide.

But the government said EEA membership ends when the UK leaves the EU.

and

If the courts back the legal challenge and give Parliament the final say over EEA membership, then MPs could vote to ensure that Britain stays in the single market until a long-term trading relationship with the EU has been agreed.

All EU member states are in the European Economic Area and it had been assumed that when Britain leaves the EU it would automatically leave the EEA as well.

But some lawyers argue that leaving the EEA would not be automatic and would happen only if Britain formally withdraws by triggering Article 127 of the EEA agreement.

The legal question is focused on whether the UK is a member of the EEA in its own right or because it is a member of the EU.

If MPs do get to decide on Article 127, they could potentially overcome the government's small majority and keep Britain inside the single market after Brexit.

This would infuriate Brexiteers, but pro-EU campaigners say MPs would feel able to do this because people voted, they would argue, in the referendum to leave the EU and not the single market.

Paradoxically, though, the legal uncertainty over EEA membership could also end up being good news for the government.

If its negotiations with the EU went badly, and no deal looked likely, the UK could threaten to stay inside the EEA after Brexit. This would be politically hard for the government to sell as it would still involve EU workers moving freely within the UK. But it might be economically better than having to rely on World Trade Organisation rules which could involve high tariffs and barriers to trade.

The ability to stay on in the single market means Britain could force the EU into accepting a transitional period for the UK to avoid an economic cliff edge. This would be a useful stick for UK negotiators to have up as there appears to be no mechanism for the EEA to force out one of its members.

The pro-single market think tank British Influence is writing to Brexit Secretary David Davis to inform him that it will seek a formal judicial review of the government's position.

The group warned that if the government did not get a clear legal opinion it could potentially end up acting outside the law.

David Allen Green on a127

Law and policy ‏@Lawandpolicy
This new legal challenge to Brexit, based on A127, is certainly ingenious.
Still thinking about its merits.

1. So: what is this A127 point all about? Does it matter?
2. The A127 is not an article of either of the EU treaties. We are now concerned with (yet) another treaty.
3. The A127 is an article in the agreement for the European Economic Area:
Article 127
Each Contracting Party may withdraw from this Agreement provided it gives at least twelve months notice in writing to the other Contracting Parties.

Immediately after the notification of the intended withdrawal, the other Contracting Parties shall convene a diplomatic conference in order to envisage the necessary modifications to bring to the Agreement.
4. The text of A127, EEA is here. You see there is a provision for 12 months' notice for leaving the EEA.
www.efta.int/media/documents/legal-texts/eea/the-eea-agreement/Main%20Text%20of%20the%20Agreement/EEAagreement.pdf
5. If UK is a member of EEA, separate to EU, then question is whether notice needs to be given under A127 EEA as well, as A50.
6. The crucial point is that EEA membership can be seen as membership of the Single Market.
7. The legal point is whether A50 EU process automatically means UK leaves EEA. Or is a separate notice needed.
8. The referendum question, of course, was expressly about UK membership of the EU. The EEA was not mentioned.
9. The 2015 Conservative manifesto also stated expressly that UK position in Single Market will be "safeguarded".
10. This means that if EEA and EU membership are separate issues, government may have problems forcing A127 through parliament.
11. This BBC explainer covers the A127 point well
[See bbc link above]
12. The A127 argument is certainly ingenious. Perhaps it is too clever a point to have a real legal chance.
13. What it does show is that there so many unforeseen problems with Brexit, legal or otherwise.
Isn't Brexit a fascinating mess?
/Ends.

Just imagine it IS a legitimate and sound legal point though! Imagine the government trying to get a127 through parliament.

David Allen Green also links to this article:
euobserver.com/opinion/136009
Requiem for a European dream

Suggesting that Europe needs to go back to pre-Maastricht Europe.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/27/chance-orderly-brexit-within-two-years-less-than-50-percent-lord-kerr?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Chance of an 'orderly' Brexit within two years is less than 50%, expert claims
UK’s most experienced EU negotiator Lord Kerr warns of a decade of uncertainty should cliff-edge scenario materialise

www.thesun.co.uk/news/2274324/theresa-may-says-her-faith-in-god-will-guide-our-path-out-of-europe-as-she-admits-brexit-is-keeping-her-awake/
Theresa May says her faith in God will guide our path out of Europe as she admits Brexit is keeping her awake.
The PM said her moral sense of right and wrong is helping work out what is best for Britain at a 'hugely challenging time'.

Well apart from the fact that May's moral compass seems to be way off, given her track record over how she has treated foreign nationals and thinks listing foreigners is a good idea, and keeps me awake at night I think this article from the Sun is worth noting. It actually quotes from an interview for the Sunday Times magazine, but this is the angle The Sun picked up.

Why?

What did for Thatcher? Strangely DH and I were talking last week, saying she looked very tired...

Paul Nuttall is now leader of UKIP. Do you think he signed it under duress too?

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 28/11/2016 12:33

press.labour.org.uk/post/153772778479/paul-nuttall-ukip-pose-a-threat-to-the-nhs-as-we
Labour's response to UKIP's new leader - he is a threat to the NHS.
See link.

I believe that he has made comments like this is the past.
anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/paul-nuttall-nhs-disappearing-comments.html
www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukips-paul-nuttall-booed-blaming-6823952

Think this is biased reporting.

How about a video where it comes from the horse's mouth:

politics.co.uk have an article on Paul Nuttall and his beliefs.
www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/11/28/the-extreme-right-wing-views-of-new-ukip-leader-paul-nuttall

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 28/11/2016 12:34

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB
Ladbrokes make someone called Nigel Farage 3/1 favourite to be next UKIP leader.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 28/11/2016 12:36

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/uk-independence-party/news/81239/analysis-why-labour-mps-fear-paul-nuttall
ANALYSIS: Why Labour MPs fear Paul Nuttall is 'a clear and present danger' to their job prospects

Nuttall's views do reflect the views of a lot of people I have met in the NW over the years through work. He's electable...

But then there is the NHS thing.

OP posts:
dudleymcdudley · 28/11/2016 13:06

^Theresa May says her faith in God will guide our path out of Europe as she admits Brexit is keeping her awake.
The PM said her moral sense of right and wrong is helping work out what is best for Britain at a 'hugely challenging time'.^

This really worries me and is what I am afraid of with having a loner, authoritarian, theist as PM.

IMO the only appropriate way to guide the UK through Brexit is by being thoroughly humble and seeking consensus. There is no right answer that can be divined through prayer and an examination of May's moral compass!

Peregrina · 28/11/2016 13:17

Yet Nuttall is from Merseyside and Liverpool voted Remain? The Liverpool which has absolutely no time whatever for the Sun. Mind you, if it gets Labour to sort themselves out, it will be no bad thing.

SapphireStrange · 28/11/2016 13:18

dudley, I'm seriously worried if that's her approach too. It sounds awfully sixteenth-century.

dudleymcdudley · 28/11/2016 13:25

Sapphire:-(

LurkingHusband · 28/11/2016 13:27

dudley, I'm seriously worried if that's her approach too. It sounds awfully sixteenth-century.

Worth noting to TMs face (and if no "journalist" has the spine for the job, I certainly have) that Henry VIII also had a deep faith and belief in the Church of England.

Didn't stop him being a tyrannical cunt either.

SapphireStrange · 28/11/2016 13:52

That's what I meant Grin

howabout · 28/11/2016 14:45

A bit more of a balanced view on how Merseyside voted in the EU referendum.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36619565

I wonder how things might look for Labour if they had taken a different approach to the hard Left in Liverpool and how much of that sentiment remains?

Peregrina · 28/11/2016 14:59

Except that isn't entirely balanced because Cheshire East and Cheshire West are not Merseyside. Liverpool itself had a huge Remain vote.

NotDavidTennant · 28/11/2016 15:03

Any bets on how long it'll be before Carswell crosses back over to the Conservatives?

Peregrina · 28/11/2016 15:07

Could the Conservatives refuse to have him back?

lalalonglegs · 28/11/2016 15:12

I don't think the Conservatives would dare to given their slender majority.

merrymouse · 28/11/2016 16:21

Didn't Tony Blair also turn to God for advice on Iraq?