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Brexit

Westministenders. Boris has lost it. Time for that emergency budge--- er tax giveaway.

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/11/2016 11:17

Bloody hell where are we up to?

Trump is preparing for the White House. He has refused to give up his assets which will be a conflict of interest and maybe lead to corruption. He has just settled a fraud case out of court. One of the cases of illegal sexual behaviour has collapsed after the claimant was too afraid to proceed. His VP believes in stopping all abortions by any means necessary and beliefs in gay conversion therapy. He has appointed a white supremacist as his chief strategist. His attorney general is regarded as amnesty’s biggest enemy opposing just about all human rights bills as a senator. He has also been dogged by accusations of racism. His national security advisor supports torture techniques such as water boarding. These three appointments have been greeted with delight from the former leader of the KKK.

Man of the people, Nigel Farage is trying to undermine Theresa May and sideline the government by cozying up to Trump in front of a couple of gold doors. His long term intentions look increasingly wider than purely being about the EU and ever more sinister in nature. He is in danger of doing a rather good Moseley impression.

Meanwhile rumours persist of voter suppression and dubious election practices in several key states, which are hugely undemocratic and Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote.

These are all things you are supposed to ignore, and are just expected to believe that everything is okay and that it’s the fault of liberals for standing up for discrimination and that this discrimination is none existent in the first place. Unless your Head of State is named Merkel.

But don’t worry, our Head of State is set to intervene though. The Queen is due to invite Trump to Windsor and is our secret weapon. Like Kate is our secret Brexit weapon. The cost of this intervention? A £396million refurb of Buck Pally. If she can pull that off, hell, let’s just send her to Brussels instead of Johnson. We might get some good will even if Philip drops a clanger about prosecco.

Back in the UK, the a50 saga drags on. The NI case now joins the ‘People’s Challenge’ at the Supreme Court, as well as new representation coming from both the Scottish Government and Welsh assembly. The government defence has changed, with one of the key changes has been to describe our rights under the EU as different by calling them “internationally established rights” and therefore different to domestic rights. They now say that they previously agreed with the claimant that a50 was irrevocable, their position is now that whether it is irrevocable or revocable is irrelevant to the strength of the case, effectively leaving it open for the devolved governments to pursue this line.

Previously it was assumed that this would require a referral to the ECJ. It is not necessarily the case. The situation is more complex as was outlined in a HoC Library Briefing. In this, it states a referral might be legal unavoidable as otherwise could be open to damages, might not be needed as the Supreme Court itself holds the power to decide whether a50 is reversible or not or that the Supreme Court does not have the authority to refer until after a50 has been triggered (which changes the dynamics of things).

Even then, it might prove to be legally possible but politically impossible to reverse, it might require a unanimous agreement to reverse by the other 27 which might enforce conditions in doing so.

Several senior Conservatives have called for the government to drop the appeal. Oliver Letwin, argues that it is might up the government up to being vetoed by the devolved assemblies, Dominic Grieve thinks its simply unlikely to win, and Edward Garnier has said it leaves “an opportunity for ill motivated people to attack the judiciary and misconstrue the motives of both parties to the lawsuit”.

One of the Supreme Court judges has been criticised for outlining the case to law students in a speech due to misreporting. In the speech she said that the referendum was not legally binding before going on to explain that an act of parliament to trigger a50 might not be enough and that the Great Repeal Act might have to be passed to replace the European Communities Act before we can notify the EU of our intent to leave if the defense case holds up before she went on to explain the government’s position. Another Supreme Court judge has been called to excuse himself after his wife made pro-EU tweets as obviously by nature of being married, is completely biased.

A former lord chief justice has now warned that Liz Truss has caused a “constitutional breakdown” and may have broken the law by failing to defend judges.

I’m putting money on the live video feed of the Supreme Court breaking due to ‘unprecedented demand’. This of course is a conspiracy.

At the same time a Three Line Bill for a50 is prepared to put to the HoC with the intention that the HoC and HoL would not ‘dare defy it’. Except the Lib Dem Lords are suggesting they see no reason why they shouldn’t table an amendment that ensures parliamentary scrutiny and have consulted a constitutional lawyer over the matter. The feeling is that, if they don’t do this, then what is the point of the HoL? At the same time, measures to restrict the powers of the HoL over statutory instruments have also been dropped. This seems to be a good thing given the timing, until you find out the apparent reason; they apparently will need these powers to enact the Great Repeal Act.

Elsewhere a who’s who of the right of the Tory Party – 60 MPs – back a call to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, whilst Hammond regards himself as the last voice of sanity in the Cabinet over the realistic challenges of Brexit.

Hammond is to deliver his Autumn Statement this week, which looks set to include tax breaks to those earning over £43,000 which Shadow Chancellor McDonnell agrees with. McDonnell of course has been doing a lot of agreeing with the government lately. Austerity looks unlikely to end. The NHS seems likely to as well.

Work and Pensions Secretary, Damien Green has been wetting his pants at the exciting opportunity to expand the gig economy. The growth of which I think few will argue has been a hugely contributory factor to feelings that drove the Leave vote. More Tory MPs have rebelled on cuts to disability benefits calling them cruel.

Liz Truss has had a riot from prisoners and a revolt from the prison staff in addition to her problems

Amber Rudd has been forced to admit there are secret files on the miners’ strike and Orgreave clashes which she did not take into consideration whilst making the Orgreave decision. Is that the faint whiff of a cover up? She has also had the largest victims charity withdraw its support from the child abuse inquiry initiated by May.

Arron Banks has a plan to ‘Drain the Swamp’ of British politics from corruption. This seems to ignore the incredible antics of Liam Fox and instead focus on some of the most pro-remain voices of Clegg, Soubry and Lammy. This happens just as UKIP have been accused in a EU audit, which Farage does not think are carried out frequency enough, that it has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds improperly and may have to refund this. This is unfair. Apparently. In other UKIP’s news, the likely leader, Paul Nuttall, has said on the day that Aleppo’s last hospital was destroyed that he thinks Putin is behaving appropriately in Syria. Post-Truth indeed.

What we need is accountability for the national interest. Not any of this shit of blaming liberalism for the party political self interest of the last 40 years.

In light relief, Ed Balls might be popular at dancing but when it comes to leader of Labour he polls even worse than Corbyn. A fate only shared by Tony Blair. So it could be worse…

Anyway, I know there are few heads going down here, so I’m going to leave you with a link to a quote from Vaclav Havel:
www.indexoncensorship.org/2011/12/vacla-havel-index-on-censorship-ludvik-vakulik/
Vaclav Havel: "We became dissidents without actually knowing how"

OP posts:
Thread gallery
21
Corcory · 25/11/2016 22:18

Bigchoc - why on earth would you realistically think that anyone would be happy that their opposite number might be scared of being murdered?
Is that really what you think of anyone that doesn't hold your left wing views?

prettybird · 25/11/2016 22:19

Reading through the Lord Advocate's arguments, I'm taken with Clause 55 which I read as saying that if the government's argument that the prerogative can be used to over-ride the provisions of the 1972 European Community Act is accepted, then by the same logic, the Scotland Acts (and other devolved administrations) can be similarly over-ridden by Government diktat Royal Prerogative, which is manifestly wrong.

Caveat: I am not a lawyer and I may have misinterpreted it/read too much into it.

BestIsWest · 25/11/2016 22:46

Jill Stein has filed for a recount in Wisconsin then.

Peregrina · 25/11/2016 22:49

Is a recount likely to overturn the result? Or is it just a matter of seeing that the election was conducted properly?

BestIsWest · 25/11/2016 23:03

I think Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan total 44 votes in the electoral college which is enough to change the result should a recount go the other way but I think it's unlikely to happen. And quite scary.

BestIsWest · 25/11/2016 23:06

*46

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2016 23:26

"Leftwing" Corcory ? In the past - particularly the 70s - I was often accused of rightwing views.
My politics haven't moved leftwards; just the UK and US have moved sharply rightwards.

The right are now very aggressive towards their opponents and some deliberately goad the public into attacking them, skirting the law.
We haven't seen this kind of behaviour in the West since the 1930s:

Sarah Palin's website showed gun crosshairs on politicians who voted for Obamacare. She included Congresswoman Gifford, who was later shot by a lone gunman.
Gifford's Tea Party opponent in the election had held an event called
"Help remove Gabrielle Giffords from office. Shoot a fully automatic M16 with Jesse Kelly."

Trump asked his supporters to use the "second amendment" - i.e. guns - to deal with Clinton.
Republican Senator Richard Burr then said he was surprised that a gun magazine, with Clinton's photo on the cover, hadn't put a bullseye on.

These are just a sample of remarks by prominent rightwing politicians in a country notorious for shooting politicians. Jokes ? Really.
Previous Republicans like Reagan, Ford, even Nixon never dared, or wished, to make such dangerous statements against their opponents.

In the UK, the mainstream right doesn't go that far - yet. But I never dreamt the US would.
However, Government ministers are either too cowardly to object, or don't care, how the Fail and the Sun are whipping up hatred against their opponents.
The rightwing tabloids with their screaming headlines "Enemies of the People" have reverted to their 1930s behaviour, when they openly supported facism in Germany, Spain, Italy - and Mosely's Blackshirts in the UK.
The Fail is minimising the murder of Jo Cox and imcredibly are blaming immigrants, rather than the fascist who murdered her.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/11/2016 23:36

Clinton's lead in the popular vote lead was 2.104 million.
However, it's analagous to the UK, when one party could win the popular vote, but another could win a majority of seats.
Perfectly valid

No evidence that Russia or the Republicans hacked any machines. The Republicans probably have suppressed minority votes, but they've been doing that for decades.
Maybe just more vigorously this time and it made more difference ?
Also, the FBI director playing politics probably swung some votes in the last couple of days, too late to counter.

iwanttoridemybicycle · 25/11/2016 23:46

Well said Bigchoc. I thought I was centre right wing previous to Brexit and voted Conservative but am appalled by them now with their extremism and Hell would have to freeze over before I voted for them again. I have told my MP as much but he doesn't care less as he is the most extreme right wing of them all! I am ashamed that I wasn't interested enough in politics before to look at his voting history and it is truly appalling. Never again. He's in a very marginal seat, there was only about 500 votes in it last time.

BestIsWest · 25/11/2016 23:50

Good post BigChoc

BigChocFrenzy · 26/11/2016 00:08

iwant I think I'm basically centrist: I used to worry about the hard left; now I worry about the hard right.
I still can't stand Corbyn or McDonnell, but they seem laughably irrelevant, rather than dangerous.
In the past, it was the IRA that murdered UK politicians. Now the threat is from the right. It always has been in the US.

btw, Trump attended an IRA fundraising dinner in New York, 1995. Shortly before they bombed London again, murdering 2 more people. He probably attended fundraisers in earlier years too.
Strange friend of the UK that Farage is cuddling up to.
Or does UKIP now think the IRA was justified ?

Looong Brexit
Irish PM Enda Kelly says Brexit deal impossible in 2 years and that there is a growing belief in the EU that a longer transition period is inevitable.

Speaking at the British Irish Council, he said Europe had "not yet" seen a coherent Brexit plan as there had been "different statements made by different people" - i.e. David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox.
http://news.sky.com/story/irish-pm-impossible-to-do-brexit-deal-in-two-years-10671690

Senior figures in the EU think a transition 3-5 years or longer.
That makes sense: Since 24th June, I've been expecting and hoping for a sensible transition rather than jumping off a cliff.

Mistigri · 26/11/2016 07:47

There are a lot of people these days who seem to think that anyone to the left of Nigel Farage is dangerously left wing. It's just lazy thinking.

What's interesting about this thread is not so much that we mostly share the same concerns about Brexit, but that we do so from very varying political points of view. I know that there are a number of signed up Lib Dems, but even those people have converged on the LDs from different directions.

I'd categorise myself as centre left, but uncomfortable with the authoritarian thinking common in some left wing movements (Corbynism/ Momentum being a good example) - I'm very liberal on things like freedom of speech. It would be interesting to hear how others view their politics.

bigchoc some very good posts there, thank you

Mistigri · 26/11/2016 07:53

No evidence that Russia or the Republicans hacked any machines

There seems to be reasonably good evidence of Russian hacking but I agree it's a stretch to suggest that it's likely that voting machines were compromised.

The Republicans probably have suppressed minority votes, but they've been doing that for decades. Maybe just more vigorously this time and it made more difference?

The Supreme Court decision of 2013 which struck out certain parts of the Voting Rights Act almost certainly made a difference. I think the story of both Trump and Brexit is one of voter suppression: black voters in the US, young people and several million British people living abroad in the case of Brexit.

HesterThrale · 26/11/2016 10:06

I agree Bigchoc, it is more frightening these days for outspoken politicians to speak out. And maybe that would not unduly worry some of their political opponents. I'd like to think the establishment would value everyone's 'freedom to speak', and healthy debate, but I'm not sure any more.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/23/jo-cox-murder-mps-abuse-threats-female-democracy?client=safari

TheNorthRemembers · 26/11/2016 11:01

I took a few days off and missed 29 pages of discussion, I can't believe it and well done.

TheBathroomSink · 26/11/2016 11:44

Nigel 'it was a complete surprise to me, honest guv' Farage went on RussiaToday to do an interview yesterday where he outlined why he would be a better ambassador to the US than the one we have now.

Arse.

merrymouse · 26/11/2016 12:32

mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/25/opinion/donald-trumps-caldron-of-conflicts.html

"On Tuesday, he acknowledged that he “might” have brought up his discontent with plans for an offshore wind farm near one of his golf courses in Scotland with a British politician, Nigel Farage, and asked him to oppose the wind project. Mr. Farage, who led the movement to leave the European Union, has significant political influence in Britain. Doing a favor for Mr. Trump’s business could help smooth the way to a highly favorable trade agreement with the United States after Britain leaves the E.U."

Even anti-Trump press is bolstering the idea that Farage is far more important than he is.

InformalRoman · 26/11/2016 12:35

"significant political influence"

Nige has been bigging himself up again, hasn't he?

lalalonglegs · 26/11/2016 13:24

I'd love to see Farage lobbying the Scottish government. He would definitely get an idea of the extent of his influence if he tried Hmm.

InformalRoman · 26/11/2016 16:52

lalalonglegs Trump tried it. It didn't end well (for Trump at least - the rest of us got a laugh).

RedToothBrush · 26/11/2016 18:33

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
"Lawyers for Britain" part of Leave campaign, granted right to offer written intervention in Supreme Court a50 case

Applications from 4A Law and New Europeans have been refused permission.

The 'Expat Interveners', George Birnie and Others and
The Independent Workers Union of Great Britain
were also granted permission to intervene earlier this month.

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam
Scottish Govt published submission to Article 50 Supreme Court case last night - argues Act of Parliament AND Holyrood consent needed: Top line of the Scottish Lord Advocate's A50 case - triggering using Crown prerogative unlawful under Acts of Union 1706/1707

This is the @scotgov full argument on why using Crown Prerogative to trigger Article 50 breaks the Acts of Union 1706/1707

"That the Laws concerning Regulation of Trade, Customs, and such Excises, to which Scotland is, by virtue of this Treaty to be liable, be the same in Scotland, from and after the Union, as in England; and that all other laws in use, within the Kingdom of Scotland, do after the Union, and notwithstanding thereof, remain in the same Force as before (except such as are contrary to inconsistent with this Treaty) but alterable by the Parliament of Great Britain, with the Difference betwixt the Laws concerning public Right, Polity, and Civil Government, and those which concern private Right; that the Laws which concern public Right Polity, and Civil Government, may be made the same throughout the whole united kingdom; but that no Alternation be made in Laws which concern private Right, except for evident Utility of the Subjects with Scotland"

  1. Thus the Acts of Union conferred power upon the Parliament of the newly constituted United Kingdom to alter the pre-existing laws of Scotland. In light of the principles set out in the Claim of Right (and the parallel principle in the English Bill of Rights 1689), it is unsurprising that the Scottish and English Parliaments determined, when establishing the new state, to confer power its Parliament to alter Scots law and not on the Crown. Today of course, there are two Parliaments which have power to change the law of Scotland: section 37 of the Scotland Act 1998 (227) makes clear that the two Acts of Union have effect subject to the Scotland Act itself. But that does not affect the basic point that, at the foundation of the United Kingdom, it was Parliament (and those authorised by Parliament) and not the Crown which was given power to change the law of Scotland.

"King James VII Did by advice of wicked and evil Counsellors ..arbitrary Despotick power ..to class annull and dissable all lawes"
@scotgov argument uses agricultural support payments as a case study into why A50 trigger would "cases, annul or disable" Scottish laws
- of note - case seems to put a lot of weight on interpreting part of Article 50: (not reversibility) on "constitutional requirements". ECJ?

here @WelshGovernment submission to Supreme Court against UK Govt appeal to be able to use Crown Prerogative for A50
"Triggering Article 50" ... "will significantly change the UK's devolution settlement as it applies to Wales" argues @WelshGovernment
Counsel General: this a "paradigm case of prerogative used to dispense with statutory provision" i.e. Welsh powers
"Major practical implications for WG... will unravel the devolution relationship between the U.K. and Wales"
Two pillars to Welsh case: Prerogative cant be used to 1. dispense with "statutory provision" 2. Short circuit Sewel
Conclusion to Welsh Gov Supreme Court submission (NB not specifically asking for a Welsh assembly veto vote) ..if Supreme Ct accept Scottish/Welsh submissions - then in fact remedy for that could surely be something more complex than 3 line Bill

net net: Supreme Court case now wider in scope than High Ct. Scottish & Welsh submissions increase chance of remedy being Act of Parliament

John Stevens ‏@johnestevens
May's Article 50 back-up plan revealed... she'll rush vote through Commons in 5 days if she loses at Supreme Court

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3972914/Brexit-Bill-pushed-Parliament-just-five-days-Theresa-loses-Supreme-Court-battle.html

Will she now? Doesn't that depend on HOW she loses at the Supreme Court if the government lose?

It is possible that the Supreme Court could rule that a50 must go through parliament, but the Grand Repel Act must be in place before it can be triggered. This can not be done without the Scottish Government approving it (and possibly still NI and Welsh Assemblies) and that since sewel would be affected, an Act of Parliament regarding this and protecting the devolved assemblies might also be required. There may also need to be clarification from the ECJ regarding reversibility. In theory at least.

And the contingency plan to the UK gov losing at the supreme court is to 'rush an a50 bill through parliament in 5 days'?!

John Simpson ‏@JohnSimpsonNews
Castro hugely glamorous, v attractive, romantic, but a monster to anyone who thought or acted differently - gays, Christians, liberals.

What is it Corbyn has said about him? 'Heroism' and ‘a champion of social justice’ . Ken Livingston? a 'beacon of light'.

Kind of depressing.

VP elect Mike Pence? 'Tyrant'

Tim Farron? "There is no doubt that Fidel Castro was a vastly significant 20th Century leader, but even as we respectfully acknowledge this on his passing we must not overlook the appalling human rights abuses including the summary executions for which he was responsible"

David Schneider ‏@davidschneider
Castro: "No! I refuse to die till I witness the collapse of the United States!"
"Trump is President elect"
Castro: "OK. I'm ready now"

Keir Starmer ‏@Keir_Starmer
Labour will fight for environmental rights protection in Brexit negotiations & in Great Repeal Bill.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-climate-change-labour-environment-europe-keir-starmer-conservative-u-turn-a7440626.html
Fracking and Heathrow, top of the list there then.

Sarah Olney ‏@sarahjolney1
Met with @CarolineLucas this morning. Ever so grateful for the local Green Party's brave decision to stand aside in #RichmondPark
Complete with photo. I guess in response to Goldsmith's lie that Lucas supported him.

The Guardian ‏@guardian
Clinton attorney says campaign team will help with Jill Stein recount effort

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/26/hillary-clinton-attorney-jill-stein-wisconsin-recount?CMP=twt_gu

Marc Elias wrote in a post on Medium that the Clinton team had been conducting its own review of election results, in which it had found no evidence that the election was sabotaged.

His words echoed those from the White House, which said in a statement to the New York Times on Friday the election results “accurately reflect the will of the American people”.

But Elias also wrote that the Clinton team would support the Green party candidate Jill Stein in her effort to secure recounts in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Wisconsin accepted Stein’s recount petition, including a $1.1m financial commitment met by an online fundraising campaign, on Friday.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-citizenship-payment-could-be-option-after-brexit-under-new-proposals_uk_58398b17e4b0ddedcf5cff5b?utm_hp_ref=uk&ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000001
Guy Verhofstadt, likes the voluntary EU citizen idea. (Potentially could this work with the Scottish and NI position? If only a50 could be triggered first to establish this in negotiations...)

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nhs-hospitals-use-private-sector-ease-potential-winter-crisis-leaked-memo-a7440646.html
NHS hospitals told to send patients to private sector to ease potential winter crisis

Leaked memos show health officials have been ordered to discharge thousands of patients

NHS hospitals have been told to pass on some scheduled surgery to the private sector to ease a potential winter crisis.

Leaked memos show health officials have been ordered to discharge thousands of patients and have been banned from declaring “black alerts”, which are used when hospitals are unable to cope with demand.

The instructions have apparently come from NHS England and the regulator NHS Improvement and looks to bring occupancy down to 85 per cent, the Telegraph reported.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 26/11/2016 18:40

Oh and UKIP have been ordered to repay their mis-spent EU funds by 21st Dec.

What do we reckon the chances of them doing so are?

OP posts:
TheBathroomSink · 26/11/2016 18:49

What do we reckon the chances of them doing so are?

About zero. It's not like they have any intention of acting like professionals, so why not add bad debtors to the list.

twofingerstoGideon · 26/11/2016 18:58

Won't Arron Banks bail them out?

SwedishEdith · 26/11/2016 19:02

No, Arron Banks won't go near them now - toxic. He's only interested in Farage.