The Brexit Arms. For all those who like a good drink, a good flounce, & a bit of trickery.

[surferjet]

Pull up a chair & relax......

I think Nigel has done EXCEEDINGLY well, myself. Give that man a cigar.

Treasury Select Committee grilling the IFS on the OBR forecasts was worth watching yesterday. Couple of points I picked up:

Debt has gone up in part because of accounting for BoE monetary operations. There is a corresponding asset but by accounting convention it is not netted off. This means there will be a natural unwinding of net debt just in time for a budget giveaway prior to the 2020 election.

The OBR forecasts do not and are not allowed to take account of future government policy. Therefore since there is no official negotiating stance they are still based on GO's philosophy. This in part explains why any actual outperformance since the referendum is being compensated for by the forecasters pushing the doom and gloom into the future.

The whole committee meeting is worth a watch but as usual when I looked for online reporting I couldn't find anything giving a thoughtful balanced interpretation even though JRM was on top scathingly polite form and PJ of the IFS was exhibiting his usual sense of humour while maintaining complete expert witness impartiality. Got to find some sort of entertainment to do the ironing with

And while we are at it can we add Nicola Sturgeon to the rogues gallery please? But can you make sure the pics are not in a row because you'll have the other lot - you know, the morally elevated, professionally offended - getting all in a fluff because somehow that was the way the front page of a German newspaper displayed some photos in an article years ago and if we put ours in a row it means, you know, that the pub is fascist.

Leaving the EU and its narrow rigid trading behaviour will allow us to trade globally on our own terms

You know what India asked for when Theresa May went to try to set up some trade deals, right?

You do know that the EU is near collapse, right?

surfer your definition of everyone getting on well is everyone agreeing with Leavers.

Remainers have long since stopped arguing with you all- it's pointless.

I'm not 'ruining' the thread by pointing out the obvious but you see it that way because it doesn't sit with your pink and fluffy opinion on the future.

Whether it's 'near collapse' or not is a matter of opinion and speculation: do you know what India actually asked for, in real life, in words, that have actually been said?

And infnite don't play the bully card.

I didn't call you names.

I didn't say you were shallow, I said Leavers arguments were shallow.

You clearly can't see the difference but that doesn't mean there isn't one.

Bit behind as usual. Yesterday, out walking with a friend (who voted Leave) chatting as we do, I couldn't see why we shouldn't just leave. Does that make me a genius like Ingrid? Bit embarrassing that.

In the interests of accuracy on the side of the battle bus,

^We send the EU £350 million a week
let's fund our NHS instead – Vote Leave
Let's take back control^

On the front door is

Take Control

In one of the speeches BoJo made, on the wall behind him is a poster saying,

^Let's give our NHS
the £350 million the
EU takes every week^

Not a 'could' in sight.

Think I'd better go, this genius tag is making me feel quite weird.

Oh, nearly forgot - group of friends, all remainers, chided me for not wanting a second referendum. My reason? The result would be exactly the same.

Jonker (yes, I know it's spelt wrong but it's the nearest I can get to Joker, gettit) is due a pay rise next year. 8,300 something I think. Just think what the Fail, Sun (a registered leave campaign group apparently) and the Telegraph would make of that.

I'll leave you to chat amongst yourselves. DP's suggested we go out for coffee - lovely blue sky morning.

I do muse about the likely scenario if we are delayed leaving and meanwhile the EU implodes....I suppose the Remainers will sit there blaming Brexit - of course - but having not a clue what to do while we get dragged down - after all, as far as they are concerned the UK is nothing, nothing at all, without the EU

Petronius16

This picture?

Informal the words 'we could' are often spelled and pronounced 'let's'. Don't impose your liberal elitist notions of spelling and words and meaning on people - they're tired of your patronizing facts.

Seek I didn't attend the India meeting, no. Did you?

No. I also haven't been to parliament - so?

See what happens when you google 'Theresa May negotiate trade india'

Just that you said 'real world' ... do you mean what was reported to have been said?

Oh for god's sake.

yeah, in the real world of course Modi actually said 'yeah great, let's do trade, we'll take back all our foreign students, set whatever terms you like, not too fussed about visas, and you can call the shots, Terry. Great doing business with you!' it's just the bloody liberal elite media making shit up again, isn't it?

Don't think Modi is considering Brexit at all at the moment. As of today's figures India has the highest growth number but it is driven by upward trends in domestic consumption which is mostly cash based and having got rid of half the currency is likely to have at least a short term effect.

Just like in the UK economy a decade of stagnant wages is almost guaranteed according to PJ of the IFS as we are some 8 years down the path already due to the 2008 banking crisis and GO's policies in reaction to it - nothing to do with Brexit.

Confining myself to the Brexit Arms because for the last couple of days at least the Westminstenders having been obsessing about religion, immigration and class division.

No, the point isn;t that Modi is thinking about Brexit. The point is that in this first post-Brexit trade deal effort, it turns out that it's not so easy as May et al seem to think it will be to have your cake and eat it wrt trade and the movement of people.

surfer your definition of everyone getting on well is everyone agreeing with Leavers.

Can't speak for Surfer, obvs, but 'getting on well' is when these threads aren't just used as a convenient place for [some] posters to treat Leave voters as twats.

Remainers have long since stopped arguing with you all- it's pointless.

What's to argue about?
Why does everything need to be an argument?
We voted different ways - that's it.

The point is that in this first post-Brexit trade deal effort, it turns out that it's not so easy as May et al seem to think it will be to have your cake and eat it wrt trade and the movement of people.

It is though!
We just follow the Frankop(l)an.

Post the keys back to Juncker et al tomoz & go WTO stylee with immediate effect, nae free movement required.

Tis all sussed & sorted.

Informal - that's the one, thank you.

Can anyone here do a link to last Saturday's Telegraph Magazine? Article about Ed Balls and Strictly – mostly. But toward the end he's asked about Brexit. He voted for and campaigned for Remain however, he would be prepared help Brexit succeed because that would be in the country's interests now we've voted Leave. Someone being sensible I thought, just shows what not being a politician can do for you. He doesn't expect to get a phone call from TM.

He does think Parliament should vote on it, to give it credibility but it would undermine Parliament if it voted against.

I'm going wholly on memory here so quite happy for someone to say I got it wrong.

Back to 'why don't we leave now'. That won't happen because three men with huge egos want the kudos of being successful negotiators – I've no faith in them, but hope for everyone's sake they can pull it off.

Post the keys back to Juncker et al tomoz & go WTO stylee with immediate effect, nae free movement required.

Tis all sussed & sorted.

Nice plan, but ... the UK can't go WTO immediately as our WTO membership is all wrapped up with the EU WTO membership, and all the schedules which define the WTO tariffs would all need to be renegotiated with the UK as a separate entity from the EU.

But Modi's conditions were nothing to do with the fact that we haven't posted keys to Juncker - rather, they indicate that you cannot do the trade you like and not expect to give anything in return.

Petulantly throwing metaphorical keys won't help in the slightest.