Westministenders. Boris worries about the land of his birth and simply wonders, what the hell next!?

[RedToothBrush]

Of all the Westministers intro I’ve done to date, I think this has been the hardest to write.

My first thought is where on earth to start, and then where to stop with how Trump’s victory affects us in the UK. It completely changes international relations. The political fall out is going to be considerable and potentially radioactive in its toxicity.

To hardened Brexiteers, America falling to Trump represents the domino effect in progress. It will embolden them. And the fear is that on 4th December both Italy and Austria could fall next as they respectively, face a referendum and a re-run of the presidential election.

And then there’s France…

All of this is a threat to the EU. It just leaves everyone, including the UK asking what next? And what of our relationship with the US? Who knows? It makes it look around and say, can we rely on the US, and without the US surely we have no choice but to grow closer to the EU. Perhaps there is a role for us in-between but there really are no guarantees and do we want to make that choice?

The suggestion is that May has no love for Trump. And whilst the hard right might harbour fantasies about becoming the 51st State, which seem to be led by Farage himself, this exposes the one red line that could bring the fury of the country down on the government to its extinction. The NHS. Its not for sale. Its not to be subject to a trade deal.

In a curious turn of events, rumours grow that the government will contend at the Supreme Court that a50 CAN be reversed afterall. Davis had personally been responsible for the original line that its not reversible. This was a political decision to tie us into leaving, and show intent and seriousness to Leavers. Yet it was always a crazy one that is not in the national interest.

Going back on this totally changes the game.

It would be a move that will go down well with Remainers and Liberal Leavers but will enrage the hardliners especially if the ECJ is part of this new tact.

It off loads a pile of risk and it is the prudent and sensible approach. It is much needed to protect the best interests of the country overall. Its also that magic ‘Get Out of Jail Free Card’ for that promised Nissan deal.

The change of tact would also help to appease MPs and much opposition to Brexit. And in doing so, also lessens the chances of a HoC rebellion against May and also reduces the chances of an early election, thus is perhaps a more stabilising way forward. It encourages negotiation of a good deal that other parties and rebels will also find agreeable rather than them feeling like they are being held to ransom on.

It would almost certainly delay things and might interfere with May’s precious timetable.

But there’s France… and the Presidential elections are in April/May

Do we really want to trigger article 50, if post Trump, the domino really is likely to fall there too and Le Pen wins the Presidency? There is suddenly a potential ally for major EU reform. Or even its collapse. Now is not the time to do something rash and drastic but to hold our nerve just a little longer.

It makes sense to everyone to hang fire and delay. If only briefly to see what now happens.

There are dangers in doing this though. The prospect of the ECJ being involved in a case which is in essence about our Constitution, is not only embarrassing but could be explosive. It will raise fears of leavers that Brexit will not happen. It will play to the extremes and the agenda of UKIP. It exposes judges to the press and criticism that they are activists and also trying to stop Brexit. Though Gove seems to have changed his tune and is defending them rather more than he was previously...

With tensions running high will Farage get his 100,000 march? Maybe, maybe not. Only time will tell on that one. He is trying to win through intimidation though, and that makes people fear him if we don’t do his bidding and what’s happening over in the States only emboldens him and makes others fear him more. He is divisive and never will be able to serve the national interest, because of it no matter how honest his delusions of being an ambassador to Trump are.

It just adds to the growing sense of helplessness and growing question of whether the proud tradition of British liberalism can even survive? It becomes appears to many this is ultimately the goal of Mr Farage – and not the EU. The EU is just a protector of it.

Well I don’t believe that Farage does have it all his way and has the monopoly on people power, nor a connection to the public that no one else has.

One of the themes developing on twitter, is one about passion, hope and a new sense of purpose. One to defend British values and not become like Trumpland. We have a warning and an example of how it really could be worse and it’s not a pretty sight.

I remember during the referendum one poster unsure of how to vote, asking simply:
“I don't want to spoil my vote. I want to vote, and vote with conviction”.

It was a question I found difficult to answer at the time. To me it highlighted how much people did want something to believe in and to not having that. We must start to build on that, and provide that alternative.

But I do believe those things to believe in were there all along. The NHS and our open democracy, whatever the flaws and imperfections of our institutions they have endured and survived for a reason – and not just for the benefit of the ‘elite’.

We just took them for granted, and now we are going to have to stand up and make sure people know that by speaking out, and know that while moderates might have it in their nature to compromise there are also some things we just can not loose in the process. We must not be drawn into a battle along violent lines as it will be used against those who do. We can’t loose our soul in trying to defend what is precious, nor should we try and reassure ourselves by finding justification for things that can not and should not be justified.

The Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius wrote in notes to himself;

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”

I think that message rings true now both for Leave and Remain supporters alike. You might have made a decision on 23rd June but you still have other choices to make now.

Choose to stay sane.

www.slate.com/articles/business/the_bills/2015/10/trump_carson_bush_all_benefited_from_multilevel_marketing_schemes.html

From the slate article:

"As for Trump Network, New York magazine reported in 2011 that recruits practiced how they should respond if someone asked if it was a pyramid scheme. One suggested comeback: “You think Donald Trump would involve himself in a pyramid scheme?”

Of course, common sense would say people realize their chances of achieving millions of dollars in sales via these companies aren’t exactly high. There can’t be that many people who want to buy and sell large amount of vitamins, weight-loss supplements, cellphones, cleaning supplies, energy drinks, and other staples of the MLM business, right? But common sense, never in abundant supply in the best circumstances, all too often flies out the window when people are broke, desperate to get ahead, or simply unhappy with their current work or life situation. And the promises that companies like ACN peddle, sometimes with an extra push from someone like the Donald, can begin to sound pretty good."

www.parliament.uk/edm/2016-17/655
John Penrose MP has put forward an early day motion on a50.

It reads:
That this House supports the triggering of Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union according to the Government's timetable.

So far, its just him who has signed it. It will be interesting to see the list of names who do support it.

Yet from reading our Press and the BBC you would think he was the only politician who mattered - instead of being someone who has been incapable of getting elected to Parliament.

Yes, I am increasingly angry about this too. I am unable to watch any BBC political programmes because their 'balance' seems to involve inviting Farage onto as many programmes as possible, whilst ignoring other smaller parties such as the Greens. It is so dangerous. There must be a way of complaining, but I don't know how?

I also noticed that UKIP were the only political party to lay a wreath at our local town Remembrance ceremony yesterday - they were the only ones given a specific namecheck in the programme. This sort of promotion is so insidious.

Mother, it's not always that easy to challenge people. I didn't find it easy, anyway; I was in my early twenties and not as bolshy as I have become with age! I was also sometimes taken aback with disbelief that an apparent adult would mock my English accent, make faces and say 'yuck' at the thought of going to England, etc.

I also never understood why Farage gets the air time he does, I suspect it is to create more news and debate, really.

I agree with this. I think that, unfortunately, news editors etc consider his inflammatory rhetoric more likely to get people to watch and listen to their shows than, say, someone from the Greens.

Red You mention the term liberal facist , but I gather from American friends that another new label is emerging for those who oppose Trump "Cucks" . There have been instances of it being shouted at people who are overheard expressing their views in bars, on the street etc.

If this GQ article is right it has a grim origin www.gq.com/story/why-angry-white-men-love-calling-people-cucks

Charming

By the way the remergence of the possibility of the closure of Kingston hospital will be another difficult issue for Zac, he has long maintained the the Libdems have exaggerated the possibility for political gain and even in 2011, like Heathrow, promised to resign if it happens www.zacgoldsmith.com/cuts-to-kingston-hospital/

I don't understand why so many white women voted for Trump. I can understand why white men did.

I left school in the late sixties. It was still common for women to be paid less than men for the same job. A mediocre man would be preferred for a job over an able women, which I can furnish examples of, but I will be told that anecdote is not date. The better educated women tended to be fobbed off with going into non degree level teacher training, instead of aiming for university. Women couldn't take out loans in their own name, but had to have a mail guarantor. And so on. Then in the early seventies the women's movement had a second flowering and we won a lot of rights. In the US there were huge movements promoting racial equality.

So, poor white man, who is used to getting it all on a plate, suddenly has to start working a bit harder to achieve things faced with competition from women and blacks who have worked hard for those rights. I feel like saying 'join the club, chum, now you know what it's like for a lot of the population." But, again, why on earth did white women vote for him? I am baffled.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tycoon-wants-to-smash-commons-political-careerists-96k5dmbgx
Tycoon wants to smash Commons political careerists

One of Donald Trump’s closest British allies is drawing up plans to “drain the swamp” in the House of Commons by targeting MPs he deems lazy, ineffective or corrupt at the next general election.

Arron Banks, a close friend of Nigel Farage and a major Ukip backer, is considering ditching the party he funds and creating a new movement that would stand 200 parliamentary candidates “against the 200 worst, most corrupt MPs”.

So you will be standing someone against Nigel Farage then?

I guess Mr Johnson and Mr Gove should be worried.

Somehow I don't think that will be the case...

In Eu Nationals, migrants, vacancies now unfilled, shortage of staff preChristmas etc..

labourproviders.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Labour-Immigration-Policy-Pre-And-Post-EU-Exit-ALP-Position-Paper-No....pdf

Peregrina - I saw an article the other day which I now can't remember where, along the lines of working class women are dealing with men like Trump every day, the kind of casual sexism he spouts is a regular feature of their experiences, so it isn't as shocking as it is to others.

Apparently Keith Vaz is top of Bank's hit list.

Now, no matter how much Vaz is a dick its worth remembering the following:

Vaz has an 18000 majority over Labour. UKIP saw a 15% rise in their vote in 2015 but Leicester East has one of the highest Asian populations of any British constituency (over 2/3). The turn out at the EU ref was not much higher than the 2015 election (only 1.45% difference which is on the small side compared to other constituencies). It doesn't suggest there is much room for a Banks lead backlash here.

Banks would have to field a bloody good candidate against that, and he would have to distance himself from it, as I'm sure the slightest whiff of a Trump associate being anywhere near that candidate is not going to help.

That said, I don't think Vaz is really a target. Its a ploy to gain support in other areas by trying to make it about corruption.

It did work in Tatton against UKIP member Neil Hamilton with Martin Bell. But Bell was squeaky clean.

Interesting ploy mind. It will win votes in some places.

Also I've heard that many American SAHMs like the stuff Trump says about returning to family values - I think they see it as valuing their role in the home rather than, say, a candidate who talks about addressing the gender pay gap (which doesn't apply to them).

That was in reply to Peregrina btw.

Arh... Leave.EUs image on the subject features a picture of the HoC with Nick Clegg, Anna Soubry and David Lammy on it.

I think we know where we are going with this really. Is Ed Miliband on the list by chance? (I think Miliband is far more vulnerable than Vaz and at risk of a Kipper backlash. In terms of being a career politician, standing up for remain when your constituency was 70% leave and there was a 10% higher turnout at the EU ref than at the GE is a pretty brave thing to do. But yes, I'm sure this will be viewed as 'corrupt')

Something makes me think this is a veiled threat against any MP who perhaps is thinking about voting against a50, and this is a way of trying to tar them with the brush of being corrupt.

And valuing their role in the home would explain why Hillary Clinton did not appeal to them. In the seventies feminist groups we used to talk about consciousness raising. Those were the days .

Arh... Leave.EUs image on the subject features a picture of the HoC with Nick Clegg, Anna Soubry and David Lammy on it.

How depressing.

Thanks for another great thread. Placemarking and just another comment on why women may have been willing to vote for DT. Remember HC has been remembered for saying

I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas, but what I decided to do was to fulfill my profession, which I entered before my husband was in public life.

Which it is fair to say sounds pretty patronising and condescending towards women who do choose not to work outside of the home.

Add to this that 83% of Americans identify as christians which clearly has a long history as a paternalistic religion. And evangelical Christianity is mainstream there in a way it isn't in the UK. I don't think it's that surprising that so many women didn't vote for HC and felt able to vote for DT in a way that I'm not sure British women would have done.

Someone asked yesterday who the guy on the left in the group Banks/Farage/Trump photo was - according to The Guardian he's Gerry Gunster, who's a US polling strategist.

And evangelical Christianity is mainstream there in a way it isn't in the UK.
Yes. An American friend came to stay and brought his local newspaper to show us. It had at least 4 pages about the local churches and summaries of what the coming Sunday's sermons were going to be about. I was astounded. Our local paper finds it a struggle to find someone to write 500 words for a Christian Focus article each week.

The UK for all it's divisions and inequalities is far more homogenous than the states. Even in California you do not have to stray very far from the cities to encounter a very different culture in the small towns, and even in cities like Sacramento. On the other hand turn the wrong way out of Los Angeles airport and you could be in the third world. That is just in California who voted for Clinton, in the Mid West it is even more naturally right wing, democrat friends are a rare minority there.

I did not think they would vote for Trump because I think as well as a fundamental conservatism there are also strong values around decency, respect for others, self reliance (Ron for instance wouldn't ) and he is psychologically unfit and a liar and a cheat.

I did agree with a Clinton adviser who was interviewed who said that there were important issues that Clinton must address if she became President because if they were not addressed someone more able, more charismatic and more dangerous could come along to exploit them in the future.

Maybe on that score we dodged a bullet, but given the advisers he is appointing probably not.

Anna Soubry MP ‏@Anna_Soubry
We don't "destroy" MP's @DavidLammy #NickClegg we defeat ideas win arguments & make a better more tolerant world. And we remember #JoCox

Elegant response.

I personally think Banks is already trying to start the election stuff. There is a concern about whether Leave voters will turnout post ref and this today is illustrating that. They are trying to reframe things under a new idea (which again suggests its not really about the EU but something more).

Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives need to be on the ball with it. Not an easy task. But Banks IS worried.

Although he's in a bit of a bind. If he starts his campaigning now, it may work if there's s general election next year - if he can find the candidates and get the work done on the ground.

If there isn't a general election until 2020, the world could be a very different place and I wouldn't be surprised if he either finds it incredibly difficult to mobilise people to turn out, or turns a lot of people off.