Does anyone else sense a change of mood re Brexit?

[twofingerstoGideon]

I was rather astounded following the referendum that politicians of all shades weren't making noises about Brexit needing parliamentary scrutiny etc., but at last - after almost four months - it's as if people are waking up, noticing the shambles and saying "Hang on a minute... I'm not sure we should be doing this..." It was shocking to see the lack of reaction to the xenophobia and the way politicians of all shades seemed to be saying we had to blindly obey the very slim majority. The lack of disgust expressed by the press/politicians about the barefaced lies used by the Leave campaign (not to mention that poster) was also mind-blowing.

Has anyone else noticed a change in the air? I'm starting to feel slightly hopeful for the first time since 24th June that the country isn't just going to jump off a cliff in order to follow 'the will of the people'.

Anyone else, or am I deluded?

There has not been a change of mood in the media and parliament. The majority of MPs and media are now, and were before, remain supporters. The slight change in the commons is that some remainers now are standing by the referendum result, and insisting the government must pursue it, whereas before they were active pro EU campaigners.

I don't think there will be a massive backlash until the consequences start to hit tbh
All those areas that voted leave that rely on eu funding - Like Wales - will begin their economic and social decline
Ditto the poor working class who rely on benefits and the nhs - what will happen when the nhs ceases to exist in its current form? When their benefits are cut?
I have a bad feeling - fuelled by right wing media - that the eu will still be blamed
We will have to pay through the teeth for any sort of deal - far more than we do now or ever did before
When will regretful leave voters get angry at
The lies and liars (farage, Johnson, Gove et al) than at remainers who are simply pointing out fact?
It baffles me
If I had voted leave on the basis of the lies peddled by the leave campaign I would be ready to take to the streets!!
Bit then I suppose that would mean admitting I voted leave?....

Morning,

Why inexorable? Since gbp's initial decline, it has hardly moved.

Here's national treasure Graham Norton changing the mood (but in Ireland so speaking to converted - don't know if if will be reported over here)

www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/graham-norton-brexit-voters-bought-a-pack-of-lies-1.2838337

Morning,

You are correct, there is more feed through to come due to hedging. However, if, on average, gbp has declined 15% and 30% of our costs are import based, that would mean a maximum hit of 4.5% (not inexorable). Also some of that will be absorbed in reduced profit margins.

I still think gbp is very oversold and will shortly bounce 30-50% back. The sellers so far are mainly speculative. They would be forced to cover on a meaningful bounce.

The UK is still one of the most racially tolerant countries in Europe

The UK certainly was more tolerant than most European countries of non-white immigrants - at least in the places where those immigrants were most likely to live, like London. What Brexit has shown us, I think, is that those places where immigrants by and large don't live, like Hartlepool, are much less tolerant.

What appears to be new is intolerance of migration generally, and even of foreign visitors: there was a guy on Twitter last night talking about a bunch of lads having a go at a group of Japanese teenagers talking in Japanese on a train!

I realise that most of what we hear is anecdote, and that it's difficult to gather data on xenophobic behaviour that falls short of hate crime or assault, but regardless of how common this type of incident is, it's finding it's way into the press and is being propagated on social media. As an example, I saw several Indian accounts on twitter this morning tweeting about an article in the Indian press discussing intolerance towards Indians in Britain.

Hey Larry your posts are interesting

I would love to think so runner but....I think not

I don't understand my fellow countrymen and women;
No money for NHS - nothing
No trade deal - nothing
No access to single market - nothing
Trade weighted Sterling lower than in the 70s - nothing
14 refugee children enter the uk - mass hysteria

The sun knowingly used a pic of their interpreter to cause as much outrage as possible

And as for the uk being tolerant - maybe in the huge cities!!

Come to where I live or the welsh valleys or Lincolnshire fens

You will hear views that are abhorrent to any decent human being

It's not "casual" racism anymore - it's out there and in the open and these people now think that most of the uk agree with them.

Scary scary times

Why inexorable? Since gbp's initial decline, it has hardly moved.

??? Went down to below $1.30 in the days after the referendum, recovered a bit to around $1.30-$1.34 for about three months, fell below $1.20 the day of the "flash crash", and since then has been around $1.21-$1.23.

Not inexorable, but nor can one say truthfully that it has "hardly moved" since the "initial decline".

Nissan makes it announcement re the quashqai next week
That will be interesting!

I think Toyota will go too - big plant near me (my county voted overwhelmingly to leave)

I am trying very hard to get dh interested in emigrating to Canada...I think he will when our kids start to suffer from this xenophobic madness

We will take our (HR) taxes and our skills and piss off (I know 2 GPS who have already gone)

Shame

But this doesn't feel like home anymore

Mistigri - it is hard to gather evidence but the 'dispute' about the young asylum seekers coming over from France was pretty unpleasant. The way Saint Gary Lineker has been demonized was concerning. Would that level of hysteria have been seen this time last year?

People do feel able to express views that in the recent past would have been unacceptable. Were we the most racially tolerate society in Europe or did we just appear to be?

That's what I've been wondering....

4% ish is what economists generally (and the BoE) seem to expect.

The problem is that inflation isn't equal for all people. For example, basic imported foods may rise more than this, partly because these are invariably quoted in dollars even if produced domestically, and partly because margins on basic foods are not large enough to provide much of a cushion. Fuel prices may also rise disproportionately, partly because of the sterling hit, partly because oil prices are rising anyway (independently of brexit, I mean).

This means that poorer people - those least able to absorb an increase in their weekly shopping budget - may face a rate of inflation on their personal shopping basket that is well above 4% (or whatever the headline rate turns out to be), because they are likely to spend a larger proportion of their income on goods that are most subject to inflation.

If this isn't compensated by rises in wages and benefits, then it could have a fairly large impact on spending power for some parts of the population.

I think this is one of the reasons for increased levels of agitation in the media/ on social media in recent weeks (since the 'flash crash') - the aim being to keep up the pressure on government to trigger A50 before inflation effects start to be felt.

The way Saint Gary Lineker has been demonized was concerning. Would that level of hysteria have been seen this time last year?

I honestly don't know, I'm not in the UK now but even if I was I would be in London which as we know is very unrepresentative of UK attitudes generally.

FWIW I think the tabloids have always been pretty ghastly when it comes to reporting the refugee crisis and this was the case before Brexit too. I'm not sure that they would have felt confident enough to take on a "national treasure" like Lineker before Brexit though.

morningrunner, OK, yes I can see that now. Apologies to Larry for misreading his comment.

The flash crash was only a few weeks ago, so its full impact won't have been felt yet. Like I said in my PP, I think the hard Brexit camp know that inflation is coming (the flash crash put the wind up them, it seems) and this has changed the mood - any delay in triggering A50 looks more dangerous now than it did before.

They know they have to get it through before the shit hits the fan

Especially since some member states eg Belgium will need to conduct referenda in order to ratify any exit terms with the UK - including any transitional trading arrangements - the odds are that sorting out this mess will take between 10 and 20 years of limbo land - and will depend on the verdict of eg the people of Walloon. It's no wonder thinking people are starting to get a bit nervous. Walking away and crashing the British economy for the sake of taking back some sort of notional 'control' (whatever that means) is only really an option for the more ideological among us.

Such a shame our politicians didn't stress test their plan when drawing up their manifesto. ("This will play well in Winchester, Essex etc. No need to plan because it will never happen...")

badders I hoping the opposite, I think the government is hoping the shit will hit the fan in terms of inflation just considering Brexit and they'll get away with not invoking a50.

Lord Prior speaking out:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/lord-prior-tory-health-minister-brexit-vote-terrible-mistake?CMP=sharebtnn_tw