Enough is enough

[RBeer]

We are now in the throes of a right wing agenda willing to bring down the country for its own ideological beliefs. Bad things happen when good people do nothing. I for one will stand up so lest my children say I did nothing.

Does anybody have any suggestions of things I can do? Any organisation I can join? I am thinking of joining the Lib Dems, I be heard they are opposing Brexit, if they are, I don't see them shouting about it.

Not necessarily, it's relatively lower than a Mercedes with a 30% tariff on it but not necessarily lower than a a Mercedes bought today therefore no net affect on the value of the import.

And that still doesn't explain what we will export more of.

30% tariff? What have you been smoking, Bear?! My 30% price hike was based on 20 odd percent fx adjustment and (very worst case) 7.5% tariff.

If you substitute a Mercedes for a lower value car, the value of your imports decline.

Do they? We might be paying the same in £ but getting a lower value car in return because of the collapse of the £, in which case the value of our imports would be the same, we just can't afford Mercedes?

Please correct if wrong, I'm not an economist.

fake Tim Farron is making a lot of noise, but sadly the Lib Dems have a lot of rebuilding before people will take them seriously again .

Sorry, I misread your post about the 30% but whatever the percentage it isn't going to make up for the drop in financial services exports- what else are we going to export?

Bear,

You seem to believe we are a totally non innovative stuck economy. I have no idea what we will export but there will be a lot of business people seeing this devaluation as a chance to build and grow export businesses.

Most of the things we trade in. Ow were not invented 20 years ago.

Now, obviously.

What are we going to export? I've no idea! Well, at least that is an honest answer.

However larry 80% of what we export are services, a significant number of our goods exports are cars, manufactured for export to the EU by companies that already have EU manufacturing capability. So we might lose both of these things.

Also services tend to be quite price inelastic, firms don't buy more accountancy services because they've got cheaper.

Unicorns perhaps......

Exports of people have started already, as in people leaving the UK. These are generally people with a lot to offer.

Part of the reason for the poor response to our last devaluation was weak European growth.

Yeah devaluation doesn't always improve the BOP, see the Marshall Learner condition.

Some stupid comments from leave voters.

You seem to believe we are a totally non innovative stuck economy. I have no idea what we will export but there will be a lot of business people seeing this devaluation as a chance to build and grow export businesses.

larry surely you can see why blind faith like this pisses Leavers off.

How can you possibly try to make a point about our exports exceeding our imports then end up saying 'I have no idea what we will export'?

I don't think we are non innovative but I'm not so blinkered I think it'll all just work out because I'd like it too.

Not do I.

I actually think in terms of probability distributions. Personally I think that we have an 80% chance of a good result and a 20% chance of a very bad one.

It is brinkmanship. Normally both sides compromise, occasionally they don't. However your 100% chance of a disaster is well awry of reality.

I think the reality is that whatever deal we get it won't be as good as being an EU member.

larry, what is your 80% chance of a good result based on though? Your export argument doesn't hold any water.

I don't think it will be 100% disaster but I do think there is a very very high likelihood we'll end up in a worse position than we were before the vote so what was the point?

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Bear,

My export argument holds plenty of water thanks. You saying something does not make it so.

My 80% is based on a compromise being reached. We accept the movement of workers, though not all people. The EC give us tariff free or low tariff access for the majority of our exports, though not all. It makes economic sense for everyone.

The 20% chance is based on stubbornness from both sides and the Europeans making us 'pay' for our decision, regardless of economic costs,

The people, like many on here, assigning nearly 100% probability to the latter scenario are taking opening negotiating positions as if they were final goals.

Larry, if we don't agree with the EU on services we'll be exporting far less. I don't think the EU will want is to "pay" for our decision, but they certainly aren't going to be offering us the cake and eat it deal and therefore we will be negatively effected by leaving.

Small,

I agree, we will have to pay something. A cake and eat it deal was never on the table (aha aha). However, the devaluation is a significant medium term positive. In addition we will slash corporation tax and offer major incentives for academics and other skilled people.

We are not going to do nothing in response as you seem to believe.

Still, all of that has costs, which almost all outweigh the option that was on the table which was to remain.

We will be worse off outside of the EU.

80% chance of coming out in a better position than when we were in? Never going to happen. It makes no sense to the EU. They're not stupid enough to punish us for the sake of it but their interests will be what works best for them, not us. There will be some compromise, but it won't be Britain coming out of it with what they were asking for and denied pre-referrendum.