Westministenders. Boris and co learn the basics - and limits - of British sovereignty and democracy.

[RedToothBrush]

There is a plan.

It is not a very good one, but May says she has a plan.

As May declared a revolution and set out her vision for a Britain ‘open’ for free trade and hard working people she managed to further drive in the wedge of division into a society which needed measured and sensitive handling.

Her speech was met, with much derision and horror both here and abroad. Even UKIP voices say the Conservatives went too far.

Brexit began to take shape. It appeared hard and fast. Without the consent of parliament. It was to be run by the executive alone. As the ex-Polish Foreign Minister points out, the shape of it decided because it was viewed as the ‘easiest’ option. Not the one in the best interests of the country. Leaving the EU has become indistinguishable to the Single Market. We are told by Mr Davis that there is no down side to this.

Then something else began to happen and the plan is beginning to not look so clever…

The pound plunged.

Mr Hammond, who has seemed to have resisted the urge to take the hallucinatory drugs being handed out in vast quantities around the Cabinet Table, came out saying that we must consider the economic reality of Brexit.

It was followed by a leaked paper that put the cost of Hard Brexit at between £38bn and £66bn a year. Our EU membership cost £8bn last year. Where are those NHS buses now?

The government response? Oh that was George. He just made it up for ‘Project Fear’. Or something to that effect.

The government on the one hand were saying how great Brexit will be, yet were not prepared to make the case in parliament. The Times editorial came out as categorically for the Single Market. Even the Sun on Sunday editorial spoke up for the Single Market (though was still in the land of cake wanting immigration control too).

David Davis took to the Commons to answer questions and was met with a chorus of rising alarm. Whilst he confirmed that the majority of EU citizens here do have their right to remain here as being their legal entitlement, it does not guarantee their rights under this. He echoed the language of the citizen of nowhere in May’s speech and, perhaps can be seen to make, the stark message that you should consider taking on British Citizenship.

Parliament has started to wake up to what is at stake. It is not just whether we stay in the EU or not, but Brexit presents a challenge to democratic processes and threatens to bypass the checks and balances to power that parliament is supposed to provide. It is a threat to our international reputation as a champion of liberal values and democratic stature. It is a threat to our economic security. It is a threat to our diplomatic relations, with the reckless comments and language coming from some. .

The stirrings of rebellion and a credible opposition come from a variety of quarters. From both leavers and remainers alike. From every party including the governments. Initially the government refused to give, so Labour announced an opposition debate on transparency of Brexit and it all started to fall apart. Faced with a vote they could not get enough support to win they made an apparent U-Turn and agreed to parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s position ahead of a50 within certain limits.

Keir Starmer, making the point that Human Rights Lawyers are not to be messed with, has written 170 questions, one for every day before the end of March when a50 is due to be triggered, for Davis to respond to.

However, the agreement to this debate on negotiations is none binding and there is no date for it as yet. The government must not be allowed to pay lip service to rebels. They must be held to this reversal.

Today’s opposition debate seems to suggest that the government definition of scrutiny is wheeling out David Davies and get him to waffle a lot and not say anything. This has gone down like a lead balloon. The government can not maintain this. Something will give. He has still refused to release a green or white paper which many expected.

May’s choice will be blunt. She either keeps pretending Santa is real and can deliver the pony whilst losing the house in the process or she owns up to the looming cold hard truth of reality.

May might be fully committed to taking us off the cliff top no matter what but she’s going to have to fight to get there.

In the best interests of the country the pressure must be kept up. There must be resistance to the ‘Little England’ mentality and orders by the Mail and the Express to silence those unpatriotic ‘agents of Brussels’ who are raising legitimate concerns that need to be considered as part of the process.

Its either this or we will have to rely on the proposed new Royal Yacht to send Kate off round the world begging for trade deals “to once again project the prestige of this nation across the globe” as Mr Gove says. Prestige we still had before the referendum was announced.

You should consider joining a local party Red, if there is one that fits your politics (hard to tell on these threads because concern about Brexit cuts across traditional political boundaries). I think you would have a lot to give.

Red I am amazed at your capacity to analyse and consolidate such a mass of complex information so quickly. You could be a very accomplished political correspondent. Thank you.

Agree that these threads are my 'go to first' on mn - don't really look at too many others any more, tbh, don't seem important enough.

That Ciaran Jenkins piece is very good. It's so true about right wing offering nothing, just control - of the people. So ironic. And, we know we've said it before, but Nick Clegg is acting as the passionate vanguard for liberal democracy here. We're so used to it, we can't imagine anything else.

The BBC surpassed itself last night with Oakeshott on QT, Katie Hopkins on This Week and Le Pen on Hard Talk. And the most personable of them was Le Pen .

I'm encouraged by all these leaks from Brexit teams and offices. I've read (on here?) that some of these depts are having difficulty recruiting "the best". Presumably, a) a higher proportion of the demographic likely to fit the recruitment criteria are Remain so it won't appeal on ideological grounds and b) they don't want to be tainted with a shambles. I do realise some will be career-orientated enough to not care quite so much.

We're so used to liberal democracy, I mean, not Clegg acting passionately.

I see the latest is that May has promised Nissan some sort of special deal that is probably illegal anyway [headdesk].

Still nice to know that the issues that will be faced by the auto and aerospace industries are being acknowledged (since my employer supplies to both).

My Sky box decided to take last night off from actually working, so I managed not to see Oakeshott or Hopkins, as I could only watch stuff that had been recorded, so I had a random selection of old episodes of Homes Under the Hammer.

On reflection, clearly the box knew best!

Yes, we can all become individual customs warehouses we can't and stay in EU that way.

Yes thanks Red. I've been avidly following since the first thread back in June. I was very shocked and depressed post-Ref, and I think this thread has given me some sort of hope, partly that there are many people who agree with me.

Many thanks for the new thread Red very informative, interesting, if not scary

More applause for red - you're doing a fantastic job here. Thank you

Red - you'll always be welcome in an independent Scotland

We welcome intelligent thinkers.

Thank you for all the kind comments, it’s nice to have such nice feedback.

I have been on the internet a lot time and experience has taught me that if you believe in something there will almost always someone who agrees even if they say nothing. It’s good to have it confirmed once in a while though.

I also want to thank people for picking holes my points as it does help my thinking. I’m know I’m not always right.

In all of this Banks is the one person who scares me more than any other. (Well apart from May's recklessness) He understands propaganda and how to use it better than most and isn’t squeamish about doing so. In many ways he is one of the reasons I feel that doing these threads is needed.

The problem with Brexit and the on going antics of Westminister is how just how much it is like a chess game and just the extent it is difficult to understand what is going on, and what moves each player is going to make next.

The inability of Westminster to make it accessible even to educated people means it is open for someone else to take on that role. The newspapers are part of that, but with the sheer scope of Brexit it makes it a vast minefield to navigate your way across and draw out of it a roughly singular narrative. Instead its many stories all going off at the same time which are difficult to keep track for all but the most interested.

This means that Banks can come in with that singular simplistic story and also use it against ‘the establishment’ for being so impenetrable.
I do think it is a massive failing of the main parties to not do more to try and bring this gap.

Nissan
news.sky.com/story/may-meets-nissan-boss-for-downing-st-talks-after-brexit-demand-10616698?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
May meets Nissan boss for Downing St talks after Brexit demand

Following the talks with the prime minister, Mr Ghosn said he was "confident the Government will continue to ensure the UK remains a competitive place to do business."

The PM said: "I am confident we will achieve the best deal for Britain and the Government will engage closely with employers and investors as part of our work to create a global Britain.

"This government is committed to creating and supporting the right conditions for the automotive industry to go from strength to strength in the UK, now and into the future.

"That's why I was pleased to have met with Mr Ghosn today to discuss our shared belief that Britain remains an outward-looking, world-leading nation in which to do business.

"We will continue to work with Nissan as we develop the environment for competitiveness of the automotive industry here in the UK to ensure its success."

And
www.ft.com/content/68c12fbe-920e-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923
May assures Nissan of shield against Brexit tariffs
Group chief Carlos Ghosn told Sunderland plant will have same trade conditions after EU exit

Mr Ghosn met the prime minister ahead of the carmaker’s decision on whether to build its new Qashqai SUV in Sunderland, which could be taken as early as next month, according to two people familiar with the timetable. Nissan has previously said it will not invest any further unless the government offered assurances that it would not face greater tariffs, or that it be compensated otherwise.

Mrs May’s move to reassure Nissan, which is partnered with Renault, suggests that the UK could negotiate EU access for certain sectors. Ministers are looking at whether industries with complex supply chains might be given a carve out and remain in the customs union — if Britain left it.

In order to achieve this, the government will have to find a way to provide support without being in breach of EU rules around “state aid”.

I find this all very curious. What has she managed to offer him in the way of reassurance that she hasn’t managed offered her own party? Ghosn’s response is surprisingly positive. You would expect talk to be positive but it’s the strength of it.

Not only this, May is in no position to offer this. She simply has no guarantee that the EU will agree to it. Indeed it smacks of the very cherry picking she’s been told she won’t get.

Whilst she might have her own cabinet on the hallucinogens, why would Ghosn buy into it?

She must be a smooth operator - Sturgeon bought it...

Peter Ungphakorn ‏@CoppetainPU
Now here's a novel idea. Bits of the UK turned into free trade zones. Sunderland, the maquiladora of the EU

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maquiladora
This is where the idea comes from. It’s a Mexican from what I can tell. The description does not come out too favorably in terms of working conditions and labour conditions. For it to work in the UK you’d expect it to require the pound to remain weak.

Nissan might be persuaded by that I guess. I fail to see how that benefits workers though.

This should be a real warning that May’s vision isn’t necessarily for the workers (in case you hadn’t already worked this out)

Health Service

350million pounds? No chance.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/14/no-extra-money-for-nhs-theresa-may-tells-health-chief?CMP=twt_gu
No extra money for NHS, Theresa May tells health chief

The prime minister dashed any hopes of a cash boost in next month’s autumn statement when she met Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, senior NHS sources have told the Guardian. Instead she told him last month that the NHS should urgently focus on making efficiencies to fill the £22bn hole in its finances and not publicly seek more than the “£10bn extra” that ministers insist they have already pledged to provide during this parliament.

Price rises
Jo Maugham QC ‏@JolyonMaugham
Since Conservative Party Conference the nominal cost of servicing our national debt has risen by over £6bn per annum.
(EU membership did cost us £8bn a year but since the pound has changed its gone up)

www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/inflation-is-coming?utm_term=.qi9PqBk68#.ncKg6pZlr
Here’s Just How Much More Expensive Food Has Got Since The Brexit Vote
Butter up 58%. Sugar up 37%. Beef up 33%. Pork up 18%. Wheat up 17%. The list goes on…

Cabinet Splits
inews.co.uk/essentials/news/ministers-led-philip-hammond-plot-resistance-hard-brexit/
This is a revealing view of the Cabinet and suggests the treasury is plotting. In it, it talks how the majority of the Cabinet have been silent and sympathise with Hammond. It describes Rudd as having been “ badly bruised” by the Conservative Party Conference.

Last thoughts for the day
Karthik Sankaran ‏@RajaKorman
Brexit should be a lesson to others that exit from EU doesn't exempt you from globalization;it just gives you less power to shape its rules.
Matthew Holehouse ‏@mattholehouse

"We've a marmite cabinet. They're hated by foreigners and they've never been seen in Tesco," Nicola Sturgeon quips at SNP fringe.

Not sure how much time I will have over the weekend, I’m hoping for something of a quiet weekend with the family. If sure I will post but perhaps not as much as the last couple of days!

Leavers might start re-thinking when it starts to hit their pockets. I like this quote from the Spectator article: 'Gullible mobs will always follow hypocritical snobs, but not if they fear they will lose their jobs'.

www.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/theresa-mays-cynical-brexit-stance-has-put-her-head-on-the-block/

I don't think I am going to spare too many tears for Amber Rudd. She should have thought more about what she was saying.

Correction - I will shed No tears for Amber Rudd.

This is a revealing view of the Cabinet and suggests the treasury is plotting. In it, it talks how the majority of the Cabinet have been silent and sympathise with Hammond.

Hammond has to be our best hope of a soft Brexit. We will know it is really time to panic if he resigns or is pushed out (there were rumours last week that either Davis or Hammond will have to go as they can't work together).

My boss had dealings with him when he was sec of state for transport and said he was impressive - always very well briefed and knowledgeable about key issues.

I was thinking about how ironic it is that David Davies, who has always held himself out as a trumpeter of individual freedoms, should turn out to be so authoritarian.

I've been playing fantasy labour leaders and have come up with kier starmer.

I'm a bit late to this one but I agree - Red you are fantastic and thank you.

Peregrina, I will also shed no tears for Amber Rudd.

Place marking and thanks for the thread, red.

These threads are giving me a tiny bit of hope in that I think that there are posters on here from different sides of the political spectrum, but we can agree that brexit is a fuck up of pretty much unprecedented proportions!

Just adding my thanks to Red. I get all my updated here.

Updates even!!!

I would be interested to know which industries don't have complex supply chains...

I've been playing fantasy labour leaders and have come up with kier starmer.

If it's fantasy I'll have John Smith and president Bartlett.

Matthew Parris writing in the Times today realised this week that there is no plan. It's taken him 4 months to notice, mind!

"For my friend, Times colleague and Leave campaigner, Michael Gove, to spend every paragraph — yes, every paragraph — of his column yesterday railing against the side that lost the European referendum campaign attests more eloquently to suppressed panic than anything we the vanquished could write. Edvard Munch’s The Scream hovered over his words."

And

"Michael Gove began his column with three short sentences: “Take. Back. Control.” I can reply with one: “How?” Or perhaps in the same vein: “What. Are. You. Going. To. Do?”

We ask because the suspicion grows that none of you has the foggiest. And if that’s true then you have betrayed the trust of 17 million people who thought you knew. Before the referendum you assumed the mantle of “us” in a revolt against “them” and profited mightily from that assumption. But now you’re in charge. You’re not Us any more: you’re Them, the new Establishment, the powers that be. You are the experts we were enjoined to scorn. So scream — because the people’s anger will be terrible."