So the Good Friday Agreement? How do LEAVE propose to sort? (on Brexit and Northern Ireland - title amended by MNHQ)

[RedToothBrush]

Go on. Lets have some answers.
Can we have a proper talk about how we can stop this affront to democracy and ripping up of a peace plan?

the will of the people is meaningless. I don't believe the Troubles were the general will of the people, most people don't want civil war, they don't want to live in conflict.

If all the people want peace, peace you're going to get, but sometimes it only takes a few of the people to prevent peace.

Exactly this.

The violence in Northern Ireland was down to a relatively small number of people on both sides. The vast majority of people were just ordinary people trying to get on with their lives.

My impression is that the key protagonists had realised that they had more or less fought to a standstill, and that without being able to draw on support from the general populace, were prepared to sit down to negotiate.

Could it flare up again? Yes, I imagine if one or the other side believes that the agreement has broken down.

The problem is, in the absence of any real Leave vision in NI, the denial of problems for the peace process, and Foster's apparent determination to carry on as if they staying in the EU, there is one group with a strong vision for the future and that's Sinn Fein & the Republicans.

It's not just about the effect on the GFA and the peace process, it's about a fundamental shift in the political and economic landscape of NI that changes the whole narrative.

It would be really interesting to hear from some people who live in NI now. On my few visits there and having lived in Glasgow and B 'ham in the 70s I feel the sectarian divide has reduced within the general public. I can remember that when you went for a job in Glasgow you were asked your religion. If you had red hair and it was a Rangers home match you could be up for a beating.
I feel there is much less ignorance about 'the other side'. People work together and go to school together which was not something that happened before.
I would like to know if Northern Irish people feel more integrated and that there be less likelihood of the general public supporting any sectarian violence.

This is an interesting read, Corcory.

twitter.com/shockproofbeats/status/747362295781654528

Howabout is not strictly correct when she says that Scottish soldiers serving abroad weren't allowed to vote in the Indyref. If they were on the electoral register in Scotland, they did get a vote
http://www.scotreferendum.com/questions/who-can-vote-in-the-referendum/

I think the Scottish Government was damned either way: if they'd only allowed "pure" Scots to vote, they'd have been accused of ethnic nationalism. As it was, they claimed "civic nationalism", based on anyone who was was currently living in and contributing directly to the Scottish economy (so I, not born in Scotland but having lived there most of my life, was able to vote )

Anyway, this is sidetracking from the topic of this thread

Going back on-topic, I'm at Davis' ignorance.

Agreed Pretty there would always be room to split hairs however the electorate had been drawn up, but I think the general point I was making that the Scottish referendum was not inherently fairer stands. The shortish time frame for defining the electorate in both cases also meant it would have been difficult to change arrangements to secure your vote.

Personally I don't live in NI but go several times a year and do odd bits of work there (lest anyone should accuse me of being self centred and only interested in my own pockets rather than the good of the people, most of it is pro bono and I earn in the three figures per annum from what's not). I was last there quite recently. My comments reflect the views of the people I know: they are not an entirely representative spectrum, but I think the only thing I'm missing is a real knuckle dragging cunt of a Loyalist in my circle. I have sensible Unionists and Catholics of pretty much every flavour.

But there are lots of ways you can hear from people living in NI even if you don't know any. I like the Facebook group Loyalists Against Democracy, though that has very much a slant towards the people who are pissed off not the people who are optimistic. Look at posts from just after the result though, the comments are well worth a read. Lots from the thanks for nothing England slant (they do that typical NI thing of blaming the English and forgetting about the other constituent countries all the time). I also follow Newton Emerson and Jamie Bryson on Twitter, for two very different Protestant perspectives. And you should read Slugger O'Toole.

Hyacinth, what kind of lawyer are you? (If you don't mind me asking.)

I'll PM you.

Tokyo that's a very interesting read, thanks.

I grew up in the period when the word "terrorist" invariably meant "IRA member". I would never have thought of going to Northern Ireland on holiday. Last year I spent most of August in Ireland (North and South) and I naively expected to see few if any traces of the troubles. But you didn't have to look far: barbed wire, walls around loyalist estates and belligerent slogans in Derry, and a really unsettlingly overt nationalism (flags everywhere, even the curbs painted red white and blue) in the Loyalist towns close to the border.

I don't think younger people outside Ireland realise what a huge deal the GFA agreement was, and how potentially fragile the peace is. Nor what a massive task reinstating a border would be.

And whether there is a "hard" border or not may not, ultimately, be the UK's decision: the Irish border will represent the NW edge of the EU and it's hard to imagine the EU accepting an open border (unless the UK rejoins the EEA or enters a customs union).

I've never lived there but my grandmother was from County Donegal which is on the border with NI, and we used to go regularly when I was younger. I'm 45 so I can remember the Troubles, the border, the checkpoints, the soldiers etc. My best friend since I was 11 is Irish, her father's from NI, and her mum's family lived part in NI and part ROI, I've spent time in Belfast with her family.

There's an interesting article in the Irish version of The Times this morning on the prospects for a United Ireland. Economically, it is the only viable option I can see for NI if there is a hard Brexit. NI is already a bit of a backwater and will be much more so if a hard Brexit is introduced, however as a country it has so much to offer. The exam results from my old grammar school whose pupils were mainly working-class kids would put many Ebglish private schools to shame. Within NI good private sector jobs are rare, but over the other side of the border there's Intel, Pfizer, Google, Microsoft, Apple etc. There's an amazing opportunity for Ireland to capitalise on Brexit by being the go-to country for an EU HQ for multinationals - we're English speaking with a well-educated and motivated workforce. Why would NI not want to move forward and be a part of that? We could be a modern country, rather than one stuck in old tribal divisions, and one where there are genuine prospects for young people.

I assume that hard-core Loyalists would never accept unification.

It then made me wonder to what extent was the Catholic Church losing influence in the RoI, and how such a loss of influence would play out with respect to any unification?

Yes it's been the discussion since the vote that unification may be the only way to save itself. It's got a big public sector which provides jobs which will be vulnerable to cuts, it's been very reliant on EU funding, and any increase in border control will be bad for trade and leave it isolated etc. I think economic unionists wouldn't be hard to convince but I can't see diehard loyalists going for it - what do you think?

The ones I've spoken to (not friends of mine) where hardcore anti, (I mentioned this earlier in the thread). I asked them if it was a choice between unification and economic decline they just said 'why should be give the IRA what they want?' The potential for Loyalist violence is quite high I'd have thought.

Exactly all of this. If there is a hard Brexit it would make total sense for NI to join RoI, but some people are ideologically opposed to it and will resist it. History tells us they are likely to resist it violently.

It is not the case that there is universal support for a united Ireland among the Catholic population (about 45% of the total) within Northern Ireland and I am unclear as to why Brexit should change this. In the most recent polling I found overall population support was only 17% with a further 24% saying they would consider it in 20 years.

If there is fear of an economic downturn following Brexit then I would have thought it would make more sense for the N Irish to prefer to weather the storm within the UK while taking advantage of their preferential relationship with Ireland.

Prior to the 2008 financial crisis London and Dublin had substantial offshoring and cross border arrangements. I would anticipate that any loss of financial services passporting would benefit Dublin rather than Paris or Frankfurt and this should also benefit N Ireland. From a Scottish perspective I would think this would limit any ambitions Edinburgh may harbour.

howabout, this "preferential relationship with Ireland" only works because both NI and RoI are in the EU.

Not to mention the fact that, as others have mentioned, Northern Ireland has benefited hugely from EU funding, has a lot of public sector employment and will probably suffer disproportionately if that EU funding dries up and at the same time the UK is going through a recession.

I agree that Dublin might benefit if the UK loses financial services passporting, but this would be very bad for the UK, and Northern Ireland would still be in the UK.

And the border issue would be very hard to resolve. Either we have a hard border between NI and RoI, or the UK can't control its borders. And it may not even be our decision in the end.

No it works because Irish and N Irish citizens have the ability to live and work in the UK or Ireland regardless of and independent of EU membership.

I would be absolutely astounded if the UK did not choose to replace all EU funding in N Ireland with UK funds. Even if the UK economy were to falter as a result of Brexit this would not change because the amounts are so small in relation to the UK economy as a whole but the potential harm of any move away from peace would be huge. If the N Irish economy worsens then I would expect a brain drain to Ireland and also some of the Polish migrants to relocate.

....further complicated by the fact that any precedent/preferential treatment agreed between Ireland (/EU) and NI (eg a FTA or a "soft border") would create a precedent for a similar agreement for a potentially independent Scotland with FUKD England

It then made me wonder to what extent was the Catholic Church losing influence in the RoI, and how such a loss of influence would play out with respect to any unification?

That's an interesting point peregrina and you're by no means the first person to have made it. Though ROI has always been seen to make noises about wanting reunification, at least until GFA, there's long been speculation about how a pretty monocultural state suited a lot of people in ROI rather well. It's less pertinent now there's immigration and the influence of the RC Church is declining. But a few decades back, introducing a bloc of 20% of the population who didn't subscribe to the Catholic Celtic cultural tradition didn't necessarily stand to benefit those who saw themselves as upholders of that tradition.

I know some within Irish Republicanism have always taken the view that they could get those silly Prods to come to their senses, but not all by any means. Some always saw that they were more likely to preserve the preferred cultural hegemony by not diluting it.

It is not the case that there is universal support for a united Ireland among the Catholic population (about 45% of the total) within Northern Ireland and I am unclear as to why Brexit should change this.

As was explained upthread, a significant minority of Catholics (and some Protestants) oppose reunification not on principle, but because they consider the UK to be a better gig than ROI. Basically they're fine with the status quo provided the status quo does its part of the deal, and leaves them better off. Which it always has since GFA. There was a brief period in the 00s where ROIs income per head was higher than the UKs, but it didn't last nearly long enough to make an impact. But Brexit clearly has the potential to at least make people think this won't continue to be the case.

Even if we were to somehow escape a recession, and I think most sensible Brexiters concede there'll be at least something as we get through the uncertain stage even if they think we'll be better off eventually, the fact that some people are worried about one coupled with worries about a hard border clearly has the potential to erode this conditional, pragmatic support for remaining in the UK.

Won't replacing all EU funding with UK funds in NI, also cause problems? Cornwall will start grumbling that they want their funding to be held the same - indeed, I believe they have already said this, and so on. The £350 million, which never was, is going to have to go an awful long way.

I would be absolutely astounded if the UK did not choose to replace all EU funding in N Ireland with UK funds.

What are you basing that on? I would be astounded if we did replace that funding.

Don't forget, we've got to maintain existing levels of funding for scientific research (where we currently get more from the EU than we put in), for agricultural subsidies, for regional investment in deprived areas such as Cornwall and South Wales (wtf were they doing voting leave, seriously?) as well as finding the promised £350m a week for the NHS. Whilst in the middle of a DIY recession.

Oh yeah, and the costs of implementing Brexit are currently estimated to be in the region of £5bn (which actually sounds on the low side to me), and lawyers and civil servants are going to be busy for decades completely re-writing the statute book.

Where do you think all this money is going to come from?

However way you cut it, and I have never heard even the most ardent Remainer deny it, the UK is a net contributor to the EU. I struggle to see why any EU funding would not simply be replaced by UK funding unless it were deemed that it was an unproductive use of funds in which case it would presumably be redeployed more efficiently. My recollection is that TM and co have guaranteed the status quo at least till 2020.

The point up for debate is whether there would be lower GDP growth for the UK outside of the EU and whether this would result in any net gain from leaving being wiped out, therefore resulting in no new funds for the NHS etc.