So the Good Friday Agreement? How do LEAVE propose to sort? (on Brexit and Northern Ireland - title amended by MNHQ)

[RedToothBrush]

Go on. Lets have some answers.
Can we have a proper talk about how we can stop this affront to democracy and ripping up of a peace plan?

I hesitate to weigh in on this one as it is a bit heated for me, however I think there is a point being missed. As in Scotland I assume a significant percentage of the Remain vote in N Ireland was because this was felt to be the best way of maintaining the status quo wrt the UK as well as the EU. I think a straight choice between the EU and the UK would give a very different result for Scotland and N Ireland.

If being a member of the EU and maintaining the status quo in NI & Ireland as a whole is what the majority of people in Ireland want, then that must happen

The only way that would be feasible would be for NI to unite with ROI.

In the end, it all boils down to what the majority of the people want though.

Except it doesn't mango, for a number of reasons.

1. The majority of people in NI want the UK to remain in the EU. They also want NI to remain part of the UK. They have demonstrated this every time they have voted. If we do Brexit, this will be impossible: as such, it will emphatically not be about what the majority want.

1. The Troubles featured a number of people not doing what the majority wanted and not being too concerned by this lack of a democratic mandate. You may have heard of the IRA? They never commanded anything like majority support in NI, they didn't necessarily even have majority Catholic support, and yet they didn't allow this to stop them from engaging in activity most of us would not wish to be repeated. The majority of the NI population also did not wish Loyalist terrorists to be torturing and murdering Catholics, and yet despite this lack of democratic mandate, they still did it. These groups did not go away. Nor did their weapons.

1. There is a substantial minority of the NI population that doesn't actually recognise the existence of NI anyway, much less accept that the rest of the UK should be able to impose their wishes on NI against hers. Their view of majority rule is something quite different, and certainly doesn't involve paying heed to what the English and Welsh want. Are you familiar with the IRA's view on the democratic mandate for their activities during the Troubles? It involves an election alright, but one from quite a way back.

1. 'What the majority want' is not a universally accepted concept in NI anyway, because various groups there will define said majority differently. Everyone in NI is a minority in one sense and a majority in another. It is a different world from rest of UK politics in this respect. There is no hope of understanding NI politics without understanding this.

I mean, these platitudes all sound very well, but NI requires more than an 'oh well, democracy' approach. If presenting EU membership as a binary option was inaccurate in the rest of the UK, it was outright neglectful in NI.

I hesitate to weigh in on this one as it is a bit heated for me, however I think there is a point being missed. As in Scotland I assume a significant percentage of the Remain vote in N Ireland was because this was felt to be the best way of maintaining the status quo wrt the UK as well as the EU. I think a straight choice between the EU and the UK would give a very different result for Scotland and N Ireland.

Some of it will have been, absolutely, but our best evidence is that Unionists were more likely to vote Leave and Nationalists to Remain.

My DIL has an Irish passport but lives in England. I have asked her views - her impression is that there is no appetite for either RoI or NI to (re)unite, and that the Peace, although uneasy, is beneficial for both sides. This suggests that the status quo would be their choice.

Well yes, we know the status quo is NI's choice. That's why the majority of votes in the referendum were for Remain, and the majority of votes in the Assembly and general elections recently were for parties not seeking to leave the UK imminently. And a significant minority of those preferring the status quo do so because they perceive that it is and will continue to be financially beneficial, rather than because of any love for the UK. Thus, any change that even has the potential to undermine this (and I think we would all agree that lots of people in NI worry that Brexit will make them worse off, even if we think they're being totally silly and irresponsible and going to cause a recession with their negativity, nothing to do with any choices I might have made no siree) obviously could reduce support for the status quo.

Hyacinth, I understand the points you have made, and honestly understand & agree with what you are saying.
However, put some of them into the wider scale.

The majority of people in NI want the UK to remain in the EU.
The majority of people in the UK as a whole want to leave the EU.

The Troubles featured a number of people not doing what the majority wanted and not being too concerned by this lack of a democratic mandate.
I know.
A violent and vocal minority tried to ride roughshod over the feelings & wishes of the majority, which is never right & never has a good outcome.
Historically, this is what the English did repeatedly all over the world, including Ireland, Scotland & Wales, hence the deep rooted suspicion and hatred of England in many places across the world.

'What the majority want' is not a universally accepted concept in NI anyway, because various groups there will define said majority differently. Everyone in NI is a minority in one sense and a majority in another. It is a different world from rest of UK politics in this respect. There is no hope of understanding NI politics without understanding this.
The UK as a whole is the same.
There is no homogeneous mass or hive mind - we are a country of individuals, and as such we voted individually in the referendum.
The majority of individuals for their own individual reasons and motivations voted to leave the EU.
Majority wins in a democracy, and one would hope that this would involve concessions to the sizeable minority who voted the other way.

A vocal & potentially violent minority within a minority within NI, which in itself is a minority shareholder in the UK as a whole, absolutely cannot and should not be allowed to dictate against the will of the majority of individuals within the UK as a whole.

The fact that 'what the majority want is not a universally accepted concept in NI', should not take precedence over the fact that in the democratically run UK it is precisely what matters. As it should be.

A small majority voted to leave, it isn't a large mandate, but leave voters keep stressing it like it is. 3 percent does not an mandate make.

Mangomoon violent minorities

With respect mango, if you understood the points I'm making you wouldn't keep saying it's about what the majority want. That is simply not an adequate analysis for the NI situation.

And I don't think anyone on this thread has suggested that the NI situation should dictate the constitutional choices in the rest of the UK either. The problem is that the Leave vote from the rest of the UK causes problems for NI, and indeed renders the preferred constitutional option there impossible. This does not go away by saying that rogue elements in NI shouldn't be able to hold anyone to ransom: basically, they are not necessarily going to suck it up because democracy. If you think people there are going to take any more interest in what the rest of the UK wants than the majority of English and Welsh voters did in NI when they cast their votes, you're woefully naive.

The majority of people in the UK as a whole want to leave the EU.

The majority of people in England wanted to Leave, with a smaller majority in Wales. This map illustrates it. You can hover over each region to see the split and see the huge majorities in the Midlands, Eastern Counties and North.

As you say
Historically, this is what the English did repeatedly all over the world, including Ireland, Scotland & Wales, hence the deep rooted suspicion and hatred of England in many places across the world.

Nothing I have seen about this Referendum makes me believe that hatred and suspicion of England will be reduced.

67.2% turnout.

In NI:

35% Remain
28% Leave
37% Didn't care enough either way to vote.

If 37% of the people who actually live in NI and have the most vested interest in its future direction didn't see the referendum as hugely important then why are the people of England who voted to leave being held up as the villains?

What do the 37% want?
The referendum was a vote for individuals, made with their own motivations - every single vote counted, every single person had an equal say.

If we're going to be looking at the percentage of the population rather than votes cast, the UK as a whole hasn't come anywhere close to voting Brexit. Meanwhile, could you tell us what level of turnout would've been needed in NI before any voter anywhere else could expect any criticism at all for not giving a fuck? 100%? Or shall we be charitable and say 99% because some people will have been ill or in police custody or giving birth that day? And how will you be squaring this with the fact that NI could've recorded a 100% Remain vote and still not closed the gap?

didn't see the referendum as hugely important

Or never thought we'd actually leave so it didn't matter, didn't think their vote would count, were indifferent to the machinations of a government they don't recognise...

One can generally asssume that non-voters across the UK weren't unhappy enough with the status quo to actively vote leave.

Or never thought we'd actually leave so it didn't matter
Every single voter knew that whatever was voted for would happen.
This is a ridiculous reason not to vote quite frankly.

didn't think their vote would count
Every vote counted.

were indifferent to the machinations of a government they don't recognise...
Well if they're in deferent, then they're indifferent therefore they accept the outcome.

One can generally asssume that non-voters across the UK weren't unhappy enough with the status quo to actively vote leave.
It wasn't a vote only for those unhappy with the status quo.
It was a vote with 2 clear options for every single voter in the UK to have their say, not a poll which required only those who weren't happy to officially register their unhappiness.

The turnout for the Scottish Referendum was 84.6%. In contrast the turnout for the EU referendum in Scotland was only 67.2%. I think this reflects that, voter fatigue aside, many were conflicted about the EU question because of talk of Indyref2 and chose not to vote. I think the even lower turnout indicates a similar conflicted voter position in N Ireland.

The surprise of the Scottish referendum, to the SNP, the pollsters and the MSM anyway, was the record numbers of voters who turned out to vote NO to protect the status quo. So in contrast to the previous poster I tend to count non-voters as unconvinced Brexiteers rather than apathetic Remainers.

And yet these are reasons people have given for not voting...

Remain was the status quo. Leave was a vote for people who weren't happy with that. And a we've seen from much feedback from Leave - much disatisfaction was not specifically with the EU but often UK government policy, globalisation etc.

I've only heard regretful leave voters say they thought their vote wouldn't count, but there have been quite a lot of them...

If we're going to be looking at the percentage of the population rather than votes cast, the UK as a whole hasn't come anywhere close to voting Brexit.

And by that reasoning, the UK as a whole was even further away from voting Remain.

Meanwhile, could you tell us what level of turnout would've been needed in NI before any voter anywhere else could expect any criticism at all for not giving a fuck?

Gibraltar managed 83.7%

England 73%
Wales 71.7%
Scotland 67.2%

I actually made a mistake with NI figures earlier, NI turnout was 62.7% so even lower than I worked out initially.

And YY howabout, Scotland for IndyRef was 84.6%, which was amazing.

Agree too with your last para re people coming out to protect the status quo as they felt so strongly about it.

the pollsters and the MSM anyway, was the record numbers of voters who turned out to vote NO to protect the status quo.

Which is a reflection of the Scots generally being more polically switched on than many parts of the rest of the U.K imo.

More Scots also turned out to protect to the status quo in the Brexit vote.

Independence was a vote that was specifically Scottish, whereas the Brexit vote was UK-wide and people seem to have felt their vote was likely to count less. (And NI and Scotland are used not to getting the WM government they want however they vote).

Given that the PM and some of the Leave campaigners (Johnson and Gove) appear not to have thought Leave would win, it's hardly surprising if many in the rest of the country made the same assumption that Remain would win without the necessity of voting.

The opinion polls for Indyref showed a majority for independence that the actual vote contradicted. It's hardly surprising if people thought the same thing would happen with Brexit.

Thanks for providing the turnout figures for each constituent country mango, but that's not what I asked you. If I wanted those, I wouldn't be so lazy as not to look them up for myself. I asked you what the turnout figure in NI would have to be before any Leave voter elsewhere could be criticised, and how you square your argument with the fact that NI could've voted 100% Remain and still not changed the result.

Also, nobody suggested the UK voted Remain. More strawmen.

I think it is not realistic to imply that voters thought there was no possibility of a leave win. If you remember, just before the murder of Jo Cox MP, many polls were showing a leave lead.

Sorry Gloria, you did reference polls giving the opposite result in the Indyref. In any case, as the polls were all over the place and even the polls for the last general election were wrong, it does suggest that if people were not bothered to vote in the EU ref it was because they were undecided or unbothered rather than that they were confident in a remain outcome.

I agree a Leave win was clearly a realistic possibility if you were following events at all closely, but we do know that at least some Leave voters didn't do so and were surprised. No doubt some Remainers too. The question is how much that matters at this point. I thought we'd stay in, only because the bookies said so and they usually call it right!