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Brexit

Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

985 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/08/2016 22:18

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

OP posts:
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31
RedToothBrush · 26/08/2016 16:21

because planning means they have to restrict the parking spaces

Actually planning does not mean they have to restrict the parking spaces. There is a minimum number of car parking spaces per house that are forced as part of planning. They are not obliged to stick to that. They could have more parking spaces but developers don't do this, because they won't make as much profit as they can use the space they save for cramming in another house. The trouble is that the minimum number of car parking spaces does not reflect modern living patterns and the availably of public transport. If there is no viable reliable public transport then people have to rely on cars and both people in a couple have to work, thus meaning two cars. Yet the building regs are for 1 and a half parking spaces on a 3 bed I believe - or something utterly daft like that which really does work in half spaces.

On my new build estate is was written into the contract of sale you were no allowed to park on the street - you had to park in your own spaces. We deliberately bought a rare thing - a two bed with two whole car parking spaces. We paid a £15,000 premium for the privilege of it.

However, since there were not enough spaces for the people who bought the houses elsewhere on the estate it was ignored from the word go. The estate is unadopted by the council and is run by a management group - which again is not uncommon for many new build estates these days.

This means that the parking on the deliberately narrow street (because no one was supposed to park on it) was done from the word go. As the council have no jurisdiction here, the way to tackle it was initially to threaten with clamping, as yellow lines could not be used. Then the law changes and this couldn't be done anymore.

We have had problems with delivery vehicles, rubbish collection and emergency services being unable to get their large vehicles onto the estate. The management company have written in the past to tell people, but as people move on and new people come in, they are simply unaware of the issue and its becomes even less respected.

Not to mention there is no parking whatsoever in the planning for visitors.

The issue is not that planning restricts parking. Its an issue of pure profit.

Our estate is in the same area my parents live. I know no one who stayed local long term when I left school. Not a sole. They couldn't get work here AND afford to live here. The choice was move out of home or run a car. If you stayed, you lived with your parents and commuted until you were well established in your career and found a partner. (Thus adding to that car problem in some places) and then had to go somewhere cheaper.

If you moved out whilst young, the only thing you could do was move into a high occupancy house in an area with good public transport. Until you were well established in your career and found a partner and generally stayed in the area you'd move to.

The only reason I'm still here is I took option a, and when I found a partner and was ready to buy there happened to be a shared ownership scheme aimed at locals which we took advantage of. We are a rarity in that we managed to buy our way out of it. I know others on the estate who have been screwed by the scheme and are struggling. It relied on house prices increasing in order to help people and for them to move on. Our house is currently worth exactly the same as it was 10 years ago when we bought. Whilst it helped us, I think we are the exception rather than the rule when it comes to shared ownership. They are a complete sham imho. And course now we are stuck here unable to move up the chain locally anyway, as although we have over paid our mortgage and our income has gone up, we STILL don't have the equity to get a mortgage big enough to move up the chain.

If we can't move up then people ten years younger can't move here because there is no more building going on (there isn't the land available and what land there is, has problems which developers don't want to deal with because that hits profit). The only houses they want to build here are 4 bed detached which carry more profit. They even managed to get away with palming off the low cost housing as part of planning to the opposite side of town (where its cheaper to build) recently rather than adding to the community they want to build in.

The local parish council has now taken the attitude that they will oppose any new building here of this nature. They know that building is going to happen and they have to allow it. Its not NIMBY. They, instead, what to make sure that any new building schemes are predominately at the lower end of the scale - either smaller properties for first time buyers or the elderly, or smaller / cheaper family homes. The trouble is that the local borough council don't get it and are just trying to push housing. Any housing. And the national government just want to push developments. Any developments.

So the local parish council are under huge pressure to capitulate.

The bottom line is though, that you can remove the education from the equation. Young people from the suburbs will still end up moving to these High Occupancy Properties in the city, because they can't afford property in the suburbs and there work is in the city. The city at least has public transport so they don't have to pay to run a car (with the stupid insurance premiums the young have) as well as pay for high rents.

Its an issue particularly true of middle classes as well as they live in more expensive areas. If you are working class, you already live in an area that is cheaper so the option to stay closer by is more likely, thus preserving any community that is there. Out of my middle class friends not a single one I met at university stayed in the university area in the long term. But neither did a single one move back close to their parents. It simply was not a choice nor opportunity in life. Many of them live abroad now too.

So the young middle classes get blamed for being young and middle class and the idea is now that this will somehow stop because they won't be going to a university and therefore won't be moving to the city and a High Occupancy Property. I'd like to know where they are supposed to go instead?! Are they supposed to live with their parents forever more? Its not so much a lifestyle choice, but a necessity forced upon them by accident of birth due to when and where they were born just as much as the working class have their lives mapped out. Some have done well. Some haven't.

The issue is that planning in this country is 100% about profit. Its not about sustainability. Its not about reflecting the needs of people. Its not about reflecting what communities actively want and are trying to encourage. Its not about building suitable property. Its not about community space or living.

My estate is actually great despite its flaws. It was taken to the high court three times to get the plans changed as it was a site that was sensitive. The result is its a mix of different property types with lots of smaller ones as well as the bigger ones. The design is nice. Its not 'legoland' endless boxes without character. It has two communal areas. The neighbours do know each other. Our parking issues are annoying but actually not the worst. The same can not be said for the two other developments built at the same time which didn't get the same scrutiny and thought put into them. The streets are far more packed together and parking is utterly horrendous.

I think solutions are actually pretty simple. Its just that successive governments are quite frankly, thick and short sighted. And profit remains king. Plus this is backed up by older generations just not realising how limited options for the young - of all classes - are in terms of housing.

I feel lucky. We bought at the top of the market in the middle of the building boom. Property prices crashed locally, but it didn't mean it was easy to get a property. There are no more big estates being built locally and its unlikely to happen too. There isn't enough profit to be made. People ten years younger haven't got a chance. Even fewer will stay locally.

OP posts:
Peregrina · 26/08/2016 16:44

The issue is not that planning restricts parking. Its an issue of pure profit.

An interesting post, Red, and so typical that someone else gets the blame - in this case the planning authority.

howabout · 26/08/2016 16:54

Roll on driverless cars and the sea change to private car ownership, parking and public transport which could result if properly managed.

whatwouldrondo · 26/08/2016 16:56

Well that has made me think a little more kindly on our local planners. The London planning framework is very much focused on the type of housing that they have identified the main shortage is, as needed basically 1 or 2 bedroom and a developer has to be very determined to build anything else. When they wanted to plonk an alien spaceship on the site of garages in our road we were advised very firmly that we should not hold out for a family house even in a road entirely of family houses, we objected on the basis that we wanted flats but a building that was in character and that won us both a refusal at planning and appeal.

Of course it is still not enough that young professionals are now forced to live at home or in what are basically shared student flats in grotty areas until their 30s......

whatwouldrondo · 26/08/2016 16:58

Plus new developments here have no rights to resident parking permits, though they can participate in the Car Club scheme.

TheBathroomSink · 26/08/2016 17:18

Interesting. The plans for our estate (new build, completed within last 2 years) were not as bad as some being built at the same time. It hasn't been adopted yet, but is not actively managed, it's just in limbo. The build quality and layout of (most of) the houses is much better than those on the early-80s estate we moved from, but the overall layout is not as good - that had several green spaces and wider roads. We also have no visitor parking, it was in the initial plans, but it was removed in agreement with the council, as it was considered that people would use public transport. There are also covenants on several sections of the estate which prevent you from extending driveways or adding new parking, even with environmentally-compliant surfaces, because they did not want extra parking added.

TheBathroomSink · 26/08/2016 17:24

Ah, I'm not in London, nowhere near. We've got streets and streets of terraces (although most of them are BTLs now) so a huge amount of what has been built in the last few years is 3/4 beds, because the city historically has lacked them - most of the 3 beds are ex-LA and on the big council estates. Our estate is mixed, though, we've got 10 blocks of flats (some affordable housing, some not), 2 beds, 3 beds, 4 beds and a few 5 beds, townhouses, semis and detacheds. There are also some individual apartments over garages. With the exception of the David Wilson built bit (which is all 4/5 bed detached) every other road has a mix of at least three types. It still looks a bit boxy, though, because everything is local brick.

RedToothBrush · 26/08/2016 18:47

In terms of community, since only houses that start at £350k + are what builders want to build, its not allowing new younger people into the area or for those who are here to stay. People simply parachute in from other areas later in life.

I think there has been a lot of talk of various places being ghettoised but there is also the reverse going on. There has to be, but its not happening in quite the way people might think. The younger middle class is by nature very transient these days. They are excluded from this mythical community that 'belongs' in one place. Is it any surprise that they are more outward looking compared to their elders?

The place I live used to be somewhere people did grow up and stay their whole lives. Third generations in the area used to be common when I was a child. Its now predominately commuters.

I'm something of a rarity and when I tell people I grew up here its met with a surprised reaction. The polite small talk usually starts with 'so how long have you lived here' which is revealing in its own right. Its not full of immigrants. Quite the opposite. But its a very transient community.

The parish council has something of a problem because virtually all of them are now 60 plus. This is in part because people parachute in and don't have the same vested interest in the community because they haven't grown up here. Not only that but people who move in here, because they are commuters, aren't always invested in the local area because a) they don't have the time b) their interests are also split with where they work.

How do they get in people involved and the community to thrive if people are essentially just using it as a bedroom or they are just passing through?

How does central government help parish councils address this?

Isn't that just the most conservative question ever? The truth is we are actually Lib Dem, if only because the conservatives are quite literally dying out locally and all these fuzzy liberals moved in instead

Personally I think life has changed from that model and its never coming back, but more balance between migrant communities and local communities is probably what people want and need. 'Migrant' in this sense can apply to white Brits too though - I live in an area which is pretty much all white. I guess that people with funny accents and different skin colour probably just make it a more obvious issue in some areas.

The flip side to this, is probably the fact that the working class is exactly the opposite. You are in an area and you generally will get stuck there. If you do move, its usually a forced move, which you take no active role in. And get stuck there without community that was the thing that made living in a less desirable area palatable.

I guess how you fit in with this, really will affect your perceptions of it. Overall though I think that the idea of permanence and belonging is one that is gone for whatever reason. Probably for good.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 26/08/2016 19:13

Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson
Jim Waterson Retweeted Matthew Harris
Caroline Lucas, likely the next Green Party leader, on forming an electoral pact with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.

Matthew Harris @hattmarris84
Lucas talking to @IainDale: "Jeremy's office came back to say it was an interesting idea & that they'd come back to us after the election"

Matthew Harris ‏@hattmarris84
Lucas added: "we have spoken to people in his office who have said 'come back to us'. People in his office have not closed the door on it"

Tom Watson 🤓 ‏@tom_watson
Last day of holiday and phone on meltdown. Just to confirm, I am not aware of any talks relating to an electoral pact with the Green party.

Ruth Davidson ‏@RuthDavidsonMSP
Ruth Davidson Retweeted Alan Roden
Interesting find - SG's new Brexit minister's view:'involvement in Europe should be trade not political institution'

Alan Roden @AlanRoden
From Grasping the Thistle, co-authored by Mike Russell, new Minister tasked with securing Scotland's place in Europe

Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.
OP posts:
TheBathroomSink · 26/08/2016 19:34

Tom Watson 🤓 ‏@tom_watson
Last day of holiday and phone on meltdown. Just to confirm, I am not aware of any talks relating to an electoral pact with the Green party.

Surely the takeaway from this is that Tom Watson must never try to go away again. You think he'd have learnt after Glasto...

Unicornsarelovely · 26/08/2016 21:02

Just very quickly - thank you for interesting posts today.

I live in Oxfordshire and the question of student housing and housing generally is incredibly important here. Oxford itself is tiny - the city council doesn't cover the city boundaries and is in a political quagmire with a labour city surrounded by Tory districts. The city needs to expand, the districts absolutely oppose any development in their area. Most jobs are in Oxford, London, reading etc so the roads around are constantly clogged and all parish council lots are on their 50s at least as noone else has time...

New developments are hideous cheap student housing blocks or 5 bed McMansions.... And house prices are way beyond average local incomes do more people are in Hmos or commuting long distances. A significant number of people I work with travel from Worcester or Birmingham each day.

TheBathroomSink · 26/08/2016 23:19

We don't appear to have parish councils here, just the city council. It's a unitary authority, I think, so separate from the borough and district councils within the county.

It is also a very low paid city, and not one people are clamouring to move to.

howabout · 27/08/2016 10:54

Philip Aldrick has a good article in the Times today on options for the banking sector and why passporting will probably not work for anyone (too much separation of banking risk from regulatory authority). He sees a bespoke Swiss style model as the most likely.

The Telegraph are reporting that there will be no Parliamentary vote prior to Art50 triggering.

TheBathroomSink · 27/08/2016 11:15

Telegraph article is here

There is still that court case in October to get through though.

lalalonglegs · 27/08/2016 11:30

I think May would be extremely unwise to try to strong arm Brexit through without deferring to Parliament. If she wants it to happen at all, then she is going to have to come up with a plan that is as appealing to as many people as it can be and gets them, if not to support Brexit, at least tolerate it. Simply pushing the Article 50 trigger unilaterally would be madness. She needs to bide her time and, at the very least, get NI and Scotland (and possibly Gibraltar and London) to a point where they are not dragged kicking and screaming out of the EU.

TheBathroomSink · 27/08/2016 11:47

You have to think it would be political suicide, don't you? I mean, she hasn't got much of a majority, and at the moment she can get away with a lot because there's no effective opposition, but the majority of her MPs were not pro-Brexit, so if they go for a no-confidence vote, it could be dangerous.

Unless she really wants the no-confidence vote to allow an early GE, given that the Labour party do not look to be pulling themselves back into shape any time soon, and Ukip are sliding down in the polls...

lalalonglegs · 27/08/2016 12:05

Oooh, cunning, BathroomSink. I hadn't thoughto f that but I suspect she is too conservative(with a small "c") to try that sort of political brinkmanship.

Peregrina · 27/08/2016 12:34

I was just about to put up a similar post Bathroom but you have said it so much better than I. It's the small majorities which are the killer for the PM. Major just managed to pull it off by calling his Eurosceptic wing's bluff when he stood for re-election. Cameron blew it.

What I don't know, is how many in Parliament are, if you like, 'Hard Remainers' or 'on balance Remainers', as May herself, and would then turn to Leave. If May won, and got her majority, she would need to be sure that new MPs had been selected for their Leave credentials, to make sure that the vote for Leave was tipped in her favour.

prettybird · 27/08/2016 13:03

Without being able to see Philip Aldrick's article as it's behind the paywall, but talk of a "bespoke Swiss style" solution sounds very much like getting to "have your cake and eat it"

Otherwise known as the "land of unicorns and everlasting cake" solution Wink

Peregrina · 27/08/2016 13:22

Gus O'Donnell, the former head of the Civil Service, also says his piece, which is that Brexit is not inevitable. Then he slightly contradicts himself by saying that the probability of not leaving is very low.

Given the position he held, and the number of years he held it, I am more inclined to believe that his opinion is informed, rather than the spoutings of the like of IDS.

howabout · 27/08/2016 13:55

The argument the Telegraph seems to be making is that given the CLP is majority Remain there will be little appetite for a Commons vote because Conservative MPs do not want to be put in a position of choosing to "Respect the referendum" and their earlier vote to have one or to vote in accordance with their pre-disclosed Remain position.

Philip Aldrick is in the Regretful Remain camp. His Unicorns relate to negotiating a deal similar but better than DC's renegotiation position for the City - I am sceptical about this and think the final relationship will be less aligned with the EU, given that the rest of the EU only gave these concessions with a view to eroding them once the Eurozone is less troubled. I do agree with him that the Swiss / US / Asia / London relationship is the heart of the matter and this is the wider context in terms of access to capital and markets to and from the EU.

howabout · 27/08/2016 14:02

The Gus O'Donnell article in the Times reads very much like the Morton article on Conservativehome linked to earlier. As such it suffers from all the points mathanxiety made earlier.

Peregrina · 27/08/2016 14:11

It would be a gamble still, and show a disregard for the Parliamentary system. She could be sewing the seeds of her own undoing.

The public mood could change. Especially with the new plans for the NHS.

TheBathroomSink · 27/08/2016 17:11

Telegraph opinion on why O'Donnell is wrong. Much of it is to be expected (a majority voted for it, therefore it must happen etc) but this:
"But where ministers believe that officials are actively plotting to thwart policies actively endorsed by the electorate, trouble must follow. And Brexit is the single policy most clearly endorsed by the electorate in any of our lifetimes. "
is important, because nothing good ever comes of the civil service and ministers working against each other.
Also the article has a handy reminder of David Davis's Brexit blueprint, including the idea that we should sign TTIP as soon as possible, which got me wondering, is DD's rush based around his desire to sign TTIP whilst Obama is still President, on the basis that the new President might not want to? I don't know enough about it (other than on the face of it, TTIP seems like Not A Great Thing) to know one way or the other, but is it possible?

Peregrina · 27/08/2016 18:27

We go back round in circles again though, don't we?
I think it can be said that a significant number voted For the NHS - they could express it in so many words.
Possibly, they were voting For sovereignity, but that's ill defined.

Otherwise, it's "I am voting against immigration, or I am voting against paying for the EU." Certainly there is no mandate whatever for a hard Brexit from the general public.

Gus O'Donnell is absolutely right on the laws question - there are so many that the only way initially is to say that they are all UK law, as I believe was the process when Commonwealth countries gained Independence, and then gradually review them.