Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Northwood (Thanet) top vote:
UKIP: 36.0% (-10.4)
LAB: 26.3% (-2.3)
CON: 20.8% (-4.1)
IND: 10.0% (+10.0)
LDEM: 3.5% (+3.5)
PUT: 3.2% (+3.2)

UKIP hold two seats.

Red, 'DH has speculated that the BBA are trying to damage the Brexit campaign and scare the bejesus out of the government by upping the anti. (Rather than them actually 'giving up on the single market').'

Interesting idea. I was finding this article rather worrying. Surely no one, in politics or in finance, can think anything but full free-market access is any good to the City? (a Swiss-style deal would take years, as did Switzerland's actual deal, and they're still currently hung up on the free movement thing anyway).

Although the group says a Norway-type deal would be 'difficult both politically and practically', I don't know how much store I set by that; they're basically trying to second-guess May and the rest of the Cabinet, who may well come to the conclusion that ruffling a few swivel-eyed-loon feathers is worth it to save the UK's finance sector.

One hopes...

Pattypenguin - my sarcasm obviously didn't come across as I wanted in my post

I realise that it is the British Bankers' Association - hence why, at a senior level at least, it doesn't matter to them if London loses its passport status: they can commute go and work in Frankfurt, Paris or Dublin and still rake in their megabucks (or megaeuros )

It's all the lower levels who'd be FUKD.

I agree, Officer and Bathroom: Labour still look unlikely to be fighting Brexit anytime soon.

Does anyone know if Corbyn's even mentioning the EU in his many campaign rally speeches?

Fighting, or dealing with, Brexit is not even mentioned in his 10 pledges:

www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/here-jeremy-corbyns-10-pledges-11703311

How can he ignore it? What happens about it is going to shape everything.

The Grauniad's story on the City's hopes
www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/19/city-seeks-swiss-style-trade-deal-for-eu-access

"The City of London is working up plans to secure a deal that will allow its different sectors to keep trading with Europe after Britain leaves the EU.
...
The City will seek a deal similar to the one struck by Switzerland, effectively abandoning hopes of the full access to the EU single market enjoyed by Norway, according to a report in the Financial Times.

In Switzerland, some sectors including life insurance have full two-way access to the single market in “passporting” deals that require sectors to impose regulations at the same level as the EU.

The Swiss banking sector does not have such a deal, and therefore much of its EU business is channelled through London subsidiaries.

The City is hoping to use to the Swiss model but improve on it according to the FT.

Anthony Browne, chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, told the newspaper: “There needs to be a bilateral deal providing as full two-way market access as possible.

“Both sides have an interest in making this work, as it is not in the interests of the other EU countries to be cut off from their main financial centre, especially at a time they are all seeking to boost economic growth.” "

There's an awful lot of, er, optimism in there. How quickly do they think a deal can be done given, as a PP has noted, the amount of time the EU and Switzerland have spent on their deal?

Also, "hoping to use to the Swiss model but improve on it". And Anthony Browne's jauntiness about the attitudes of EU countries.

and therefore much of its EU business is channelled through London subsidiaries.

This is the key stand-out sentence for me. Will we be reading in 10 years time that EU business is channelled through its Frankfurt subsidiaries?

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/19/le-comeback-kid-sarkozy-shapes-up-for-presidential-run-on-hardline-platform?CMP=twt_gu
Sarkozy v Juppe
French Presidential Election Analysis for Brits

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/18/dismal-scientists-need-some-humility/
Why economists are hopeless when it comes to Brexit.

www.libdemvoice.org/william-wallace-writes-could-brexit-split-the-conservative-party-51619.html#utm_source=tweet&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter
Could Brexit split the Conservative Party writes Lib Dem Lord William Wallace for Lib Dem voice.

Which is kind of interesting given this is what Tory Ken Clark is saying in a new book being reported by political scrapbook today:
politicalscrapbook.net/2016/08/over-a-100-tory-mps-still-want-to-stop-britain-leaving-the-eu-says-ken-clarke-in-new-book/
Over a 100 Tory MPs still want to stop Britain leaving the EU.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tulip-saddiq-says-she-will-vote-against-triggering-article-50_uk_57b5a204e4b026af7c4cd752?ir=UK+Politics&utm_hp_ref=uk-politics
And there are rumblings amongst opposition MPs that they really might not respect the referendum result. Labour MP Tulip Saddiq says she may vote against triggering a50.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-article-50-leaving-eu-wont-happen-after-2017-european-elections-france-germany-a7198736.html
The Independent is running an article suggesting that a50 won't happen in 2017 (though there is actually no evidence in it) and Brexit might never happen as a result

Its a bit of a non-article in reality, but the point is gaining gravity.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-bbc-must-improve-how-it-reports-statistics/
The BBC needs to kick itself up the arse over its statistics reporting.

www.motherjones.com/media/2016/08/whats-missing-from-journalism
This is what is missing from journalism at the moment. This is very US centric but the same applies here. The story relates directly to a story I posted a link about yesterday - the US Justice Department's decision to scrap private prisons (which of course is something the UK is looking to increase rather than decrease).
Of course it raise questions about British journalism and whether it really is holding the UK government to account and whether it has over the last 20 years.

Which leads nicely into this story which has come out today about a journalist being 'gagged' after bullying by the SNP.
www.heraldscotland.com/news/14692107.Journalist__quot_gagged_quot__by_broadcaster_after_pressure_from_SNP/

I would also like to point out here Corbyn's actions in relation to the press and controlling it too. Whilst he might not being supported by the mass media in the way he would like, criticism must be recognised as a good thing and a very important part of our democratic process. Corbyn's refusal to do a debate with the Mirror, Guardian, C4 etc might be because he feels he is not getting fair coverage but it also sends out other signals about how he should not be questioned nor held to account by the media either. If he were to become PM, would he refuse to do interviews with anyone who wasn't a media outlet that agreed with him and showed him in a favourable light? What does that do for democracy?

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ukip-youth-trade-islamophobic-anti-semitic-and-homophobic-facbook_uk_57b5db59e4b026af7c4cf56a?utm_hp_ref=uk
The joys of a UKIP Youth Group and their [closed] FB page.

order-order.com/2016/08/19/diane-james-vows-sack-ukip-plotters/
Diane James vows to sack the 'UKIP plotters' - that's the NEC and anyone who doesn't worship at the cult of Farage.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-nato-putin-trump-article-5_uk_57b60f1be4b0f78b2b48fd60?xugd2a80jc5v78pvi&utm_hp_ref=uk
Corbyn echoes Trump about NATO being 'optional'
Would this be a dereliction of a legal responsibility to NATO signatories?

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/19/donald-trump-tries-out-a-new-campaign-tactic-saying-sorry
Meanwhile Trump gets a new campaign manager, and in his first public appearance after that, MAKES AN APOLOGY.

Still waiting on the results of the other by-elections from last night - they were being counted today.

Labour can promise ending Brexit all they like but can enact nothing unless / until they win a General Election by which time it may be too late anyway.

Not necessarily true. Not if their are Tory MPs or Lords willing to challenge Brexit in this parliament.

"Labour can promise ending Brexit all they like but can enact nothing unless / until they win a General Election by which time it may be too late anyway"

I disagree with this. Who will speak for the 48%? Just the Lib Dems? What about the 60% + of Labour voters who (we are constantly being told) voted against leaving the EU?

I think an effective Labour leadership in the HoC could do a great deal to hold the government to account, and prevent any talk of a hard Brexit. They should be pushing this hard now, before talk of a hard Brexit goes any further.

Ormesby (Redcar) result:
LDEM: 75.4% (+37.3)
UKIP: 10.6% (-6.8)
LAB: 9.7% (-9.4)
CON: 3.2% (-8.4)
NEP: 1.2% (+1.2)
LDem HOLD.

Plus thirty seven percent? When Labour, Cons and UKIP are standing candidates and the Lib Dems previously contested the seat???!! There were 3 other IND candidates in the last election, but the majority of that 37% came from the other three parties.

Gravesham East (Kent) result:
CON: 36.0% (+8.4)
LAB: 31.5% (-4.8)
UKIP: 26.0% (+2.8)
GRN: 4.3% (+4.3)
LDEM: 2.3% (-1.5)
CON GAIN from Lab

For the next government to call a second referendum on the EU would be...
Acceptable: 34%
Unacceptable: 56%
(via YouGov)

The Media Show covered that statistics reporting report last week here

Michael Crick seems very concerned with how many tv interviews Theresa May has done:
Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3h3 hours ago
Does anyone know the last time, as PM or Home Secretary, that Theresa May gave a broadcast interview (rather than answered Qs on doorstep)?

Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 15m15 minutes ago
Theresa May did an interview on Robert Peston's show on ITV on 3 July, before she became PM. Was this her last broadcast interview?

Red, that Redcar Lib Dems result is quite jaw-dropping.

I joined them not long after the vote. Never ever belonged to a political party before and honestly didn't think I was 'the type', but at the time I think I saw it as the only faint possibility of a sensible outcome.

I still think it might be.

Tiggy, I completely agree.

I think 'blocking Brexit' will ultimately depend on what is on the table to replace it.

If there is
a) no clear plan on the table from the government about what we are aiming for
b) have a clear plan which looks like its utterly shit for the good of the country as a whole

Then MPs have a clear duty to block Brexit by whatever means they can pending a solution that is in the best interests of their constituents.

This includes LEAVE voters - baring in mind that the referendum question was very vague and many Leavers might really want to keep - say the single market (and as per the Tory manifesto pledge) as part of Brexit.

Jumping into the dark completely is not something, as an MP, they should support under any circumstances and they can make a really good case FOR LEAVERS in this situation. The point of a rebellion, isn't necessarily to stop Brexit completely, but possibility to block Brexit in the form it is presented as.

The difference is important as it can be defended as STILL supporting Brexit (by Tories) but just not liking that option as well as being palatable for potentially all positions for Labour and being outright against Brexit for Lib Dem, SNP and some of the NI parties.

May has a problem, if there are that many Tory MPs who are not happy with Brexit as they can dress a challenge up as not liking that option and say they are throwing it back for further discussion (particularly if its the Lords that do it) rather than saying they are blocking it completely.

Politics eh?

The gratifying thing about the recent election results is that apart from Thanet, UKIP are doing badly.

I am contemplating joinging the Lib Dems, although I have lost the rest of the family to the Greens.

Pelham (Gravesham) result:
LAB: 46.2% (-4.1)
CON: 30.4% (-4.6)
LDEM: 9.4% (+9.4)
UKIP: 8.5% (+8.5)
GRN: 3.3% (-11.5)
EDEM: 2.2% (+2.2)

LAB hold.
Kippers and Lib Dems doing well there.

Then MPs have a clear duty to block Brexit by whatever means they can pending a solution that is in the best interests of their constituents.

I will be particularly interested to see how this plays out in John Redwood's constituency. He is 'hard-Brexit' but his constituents returned one of the highest Remain votes.

I joined the Lib Dems after the 2015 election, and am really impressed with the amount to work they do locally. They were the only ones (of any party) who campaigned in favour of Remain for the referendum. The Tories, Labour, Greens etc. did no campaigning at all in my area (I'm in the Fens).

So if 50% of the leave vote is for hard brexit and 50% is for soft brexit, then once any kind of brexit happens, at least 74% of the people who voted in the referendum will be unhappy whatever kind of brexit we get.

Yep. nods

And MPs can use this as a good way to block Brexit, if May is not very careful.

I'd agree with that tiggy - the remain vote is just as fractured as the leave vote. Which actually just demonstrates again how incredibly stupid the entire referendum was.

George Osborne appears to be trolling the Daily Mirror:
George Osborne ‏@George_Osborne 2h2 hours ago
After all these years, I finally have a front page in the Daily Mirror worth keeping

I never knew he had a sense of humour!