Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

It is a common Leave generalisation that the African commonwealth countries are desperate to send their agricultural produce to us. It harks back to the last days of empire when the UK hung on to colonies in the face of independence movements right across Africa in order to fuel it's post war economic recovery, as if we can switch that back on the save us from the effects of Brexit. This document tells a rather different story www.un.org/en/africa/osaa/pdf/pubs/2013africanagricultures.pdf. It's long but the pertinent parts are that whilst they prefer to trade with Europe because of shared political values they complain of uneven trading relationships and the fact that colonisation left them overly dependent on the production of commodities like ground nuts and cocoa and vulnerable to the price fluctuations in the market. Their strategy is therefore to focus on agricultural produce that have more stable and growing markets, basically the markets emerging as a result of the growth of the middle classes in Asia and their changing food tastes. Every time you expose the Leave arguments on trade to the cold hard reality of 21st century global trading relationships you come up against the same issues, the world has moved on since we joined the EU (often in their own trading blocs and regional alliances), and that would be even if we had the expertise in trade negotiation......

I think we also get a lot of roses from Kenya. Will beans and roses make up for loss of other trade?

What I was getting at initially was the comments made by Richard Graham about how the 'old' commonwealth is itching to trade with us, and seems totally oblivious that 50 years have passed since the end of Empire.

What - I have not read the whole of the article but it does seem interesting.
Surely we could buy the products currently grown in these countries. I don't think anyone on the leave side is suggesting we go back to the Empire.

Sorry something happened to my phone - I also don't think we would want to go back to the days where we dictated what they grow. But if we were a possible market for their goods then surely we could start to sell them things we make like agricultural machinery etc.

According to the website Trading Economics
"Kenya imports mostly machinery and transportation equipment, petroleum products, motor vehicles, iron and steel, resins and plastics. Kenya main import partners are India, China, UAE, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, United States and Japan."

Those are the countries with which we will have to compete to export agricultural machinery to Kenya.

www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/theresa-may-cap-special-adviser-salaries
May to cap civil service pay to £72,000 unless signed off by no.10

How much is the average good trade negotiator paid again?

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/environment/interview/campaign-protect-rural-england/78214/farming-fit-brexit-workout-revamp
Brexit and agriculture.
This is an article about a new report from the Campaign to Protect Rural England. It is for the most part positive about Brexit (although it highlights that the author of the report warns about the possibility of food shortages!). The actually report is linked in the article. (Its 32 pages long).

I've had a brief skim of it and this seems to be the most relevant part to Brexit:

1.2 | A changed policy world for farming
Farming policy has largely been shaped by the CAP since the UK joined the Common Market on 1 January 1973. The CAP has evolved from generating high production surpluses to introducing environmental measures in the late 1980s. In the 2000s, payments for production changed to an area-farmed basis. The CAP has imposed relatively complex management requirements on land managers in exchange for public funding. It has also limited the scope of policy development within the UK. The Government, too, has appeared resistant, unambitious or slow in taking up initiatives that some other EU partners have benefited from, such as agroforestry or using protected names to support quality.

The EU referendum decision opens a new chapter in farming policy for England. For the first time in four decades, the Government will have the scope to develop a national farming policy tailored to national conditions.

But there will be constraints – not least, the nature of the trading relationship we establish with the EU and world partners that will affect tariff levels on UK imports and exports of food. The UK has some leverage here as we import much more food than we export. But, while we currently need to import EU fruit and vegetables, it is debatable whether other EU countries need our lamb or beef. Critically, public funding of farming will be required at least for the medium term while farming adjusts to a new order. Public funds must address market failures for the foreseeable future to support the public benefits not currently rewarded fully, such as biodiversity, access and valued landscapes. But funding tied to policy should also encourage the sector to develop dynamism and innovation so that it can cope with future challenges.

Development of new farming policy for the UK in the context of our trading relationships will be a tough balancing act. It is essential that a new national agricultural policy puts farming on a sustainable and resilient footing. It needs to create an industry that produces food efficiently and is financially robust, but one that also stewards key natural resources and assets including soil, water, landscape and wildlife. In so doing, the new policy could lead on reversing damaging trends in farming in this country. The trade deals we negotiate will be critical for setting the rules for the wider market and ensuring the ‘fairness’ of competition. At a time when the UK could be seen to be turning in on itself, it has the opportunity to set an international example. Free trade will be a key objective, but there should be three additional objectives:

1. To support trade that does not drive further environmental damage elsewhere, including soil degradation, water stress, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and deforestation

2. To avoid rapidly cutting trade with developing countries that rely on it.

3. To avoid unfair competition which, through widely differing standards in other countries, undermines high standards of farming here.

I note - ' The Government, too, has appeared resistant, unambitious or slow in taking up initiatives that some other EU partners have benefited', 'free trade will be a key objective', comments about whether Europe needs our lamb and beef and concerns over welfare and standards.

Over to you Mrs Leadsom.... I trust you will be pushing May for protecting free trade then, and making sure we don't all starve.

On Boris Johnson looking after the country in the absence of the PM:
Have confidence: 36%
Do not have confidence: 49%
(via YouGov)

On Phillip Hammond looking after the country in the absence of the PM:
Have confidence: 33%
Do not have confidence: 30%
(via YouGov)

europeanlawblog.eu/?p=3294
Could it have all been avoided? That emergency handbrake.

I'm doing some pondering about Mr Trump's cryptic tweet today:

Donald J. Trump ✔ ‎@realDonaldTrump
They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT!

The huff post have done a joking article about wtf he meant:
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/donald-trump-mr-brexit-what-on-earth_uk_57b5aa4de4b026af7c4cd921?

Maybe its about winning against the odds, but maybe its not. There has been this idea that there are two Americas for a very long time and speculation in some circles that the US was headed for a second revolution / civil war, which I've touched on before.

What if, if he does loose - having got the 'mandate' of a certain percentage of the population and certain states, that he uses this to state he hasn't lost - and he turns that into something else.

Maybe this is a crazy theory, or maybe its not since its Trump we are talking about. But what if Trump sort to carve out a Farage type role, liberating certain states from the union? Alienating parts of the military and redefining American patriotism in the way he has, perhaps wouldn't look so foolhardy then. Or maybe not leaving the USA but splitting existing States into new smaller states. (Its happened before: Maine, was once part of Massachusetts).

I think perhaps the US might actually be ripe for this in a couple of states at least. Apparently Secession movements are on the rise.

Hell the Express had an article about the idea in July
www.express.co.uk/news/world/687435/brexit-usa-california-texas-secession-texit-calexit
And whilst we might laugh about it being the Express, perhaps we should take the idea more seriously BECAUSE its the Express too.

There is no tested legal mechanism for a state to exit the United States. A judgement in Texas v. White explains this:
By [the Articles of Confederation], the Union was solemnly declared to "be perpetual." And when these Articles were found to be inadequate to the exigencies of the country, the Constitution was ordained "to form a more perfect Union." It is difficult to convey the idea of indissoluble unity more clearly than by these words. What can be indissoluble if a perpetual Union, made more perfect, is not?

But there is also no tested method of leaving the EU either. And a50 was written, but the authors said it was never intended to be actually used, as they thought no one would be crazy enough to do so.

Technically, unilateral secession would be considered an act of war, while secession with consent of unionist states sounds unlikely, but in the wake of Brexit and the rise of Trump, perhaps more likely than people give credit too. Trump is making noises about those 2nd Amendment People afterall.

The thing is, that even if Trump looses, I just can't see him pissing off. And if he doesn't does he just try again in four years time or does he try another approach in the interim?

Anyway, back to the UK and Corbyn has refused to take part in hustings with the Mirror, Guardian, New Statesman and C4 because they are all biased against him.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyns-campaign-refuses-to-take-part-in-mirror-channel-4-and-guardian-debates-as-it-believes-they-are-biased-against-him_uk_57b5bf8be4b003ab6d0ba294
To say I have little time for this, and is the act of a childishness and not in the interests of the country as a whole, is an understatement.

www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-efta-idUSKCN10T1E0?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=57b5ce9d04d3015f674af225&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

This is more positive. Norway are softening tone about UK membership of EFTA.

BUT there is that pesky free movement of people in there.

The Ukip sideshow rumbles on:

Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 8m8 minutes ago
EXCLUSIVE. Police investigating Ukip MEP & AM Nathan Gill over allegations that he misused European Parliament allowances & expenses

Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago
Nathan Gill. NWales Police confirm to #C4News: "allegations of fraud against an Anglesey man ... That matter is now under investigation"

Yesterday it was all being blamed on Neil Hamilton being a bully

' sake.

Corcory
Surely we could buy the products currently grown in these countries As others have pointed out we already do, but if trading with the former commonwealth is going to underpin our prosperity by counteracting the damage to EU trade we need to have something to trade with them. There are some big new players. China is now the world's second largest economy, it needs raw materials and coal to sustain it's growth and it has for sometime been developing de facto economic colonies in Africa, funding and facilitating infrastructure projects and providing the technology in return for what it needs. It is well aware that this second wave of effective colonisation is not something African countries will be prepared to carry on as they develop but it has a growing middle class who have developed a taste for meat and cereal and it has a largely rice based agricultural sector, so helping African countries develop a more sustainable and profitable agricultural sector is one way it can satisfy both it's African partners that they are not being exploited, and keep its growing middle class happy ( something their mandate to rulevdepends on ) So Britiain would have to be able to compete with a bigger economy with an established trading position. Of course we will now have Pritti Patel converting the good relations we developed through aid into an attempt to do almost exactly what is putting African countries OFF trading with China......

9 By-Elections for 10 seats tonight:

Pelham, Gravesham
LAB

Gravesham East
LAB

Ormesby, Redcar & Cleveland
LIB DEM

Catterick, Richmondshire
IND (free for all)

Northwood, Thanet
UKIP (2 seats)

Tooting, Wandsworth
LAB

Farnham South, Surrey
CON

Fareham Shortheath, Waverley
CON

Fareham Castle, Waverley
CON

"NORTHWOOD, Thanet council, Kent; a double by-election caused by the resignations of councillors Konnor Collins and Helen Smith, who were elected as UKIP but had left the party. Collins and Smith have been charged with theft of gardening equipment from a local garden centre, while Smith also faces charges of assault and dangerous driving and Collins has faced questions over his claimed military service. They had served since 2015."

election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-18-8-16

You couldn't make this stuff up, could you?

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/08/stop-moaning-about-europe-brexit-least-our-troubles
I have a feeling this article will raise a few smiles with people - particularly if you've been reading the thread about the invoke a50 petition.

politicalscrapbook.net/2016/08/far-right-group-britain-first-panic-after-facing-potential-legal-bill-of-100k-and-give-in-to-police/
And this one will have you laughing at Britain First.

And no TheBathroomSink, you couldn't make it up. I'd love to see UKIP: The Sitcom though.

Here's a little note to Tory HQ from the USA we should all take notes on:
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/justice-department-plans-to-end-private-prison-use-a7197916.html
The US Justice Department plan to shut down all private prisons as they are less effective and safe. And they don't save substantially on cost.

Oh and George Osborne has been on holiday to Vietnam with his kids and has been firing a US machine gun whilst in the jungle. I can't help but feel there is a joke or two in there somewhere about Colonel Kurtz.

Roy Hattersley thinks that fighting Brexit could be the much-needed cause that unites Labour.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/08/why-it-duty-labour-party-try-stop-brexit

And pressure groups '...must propagate the truth that the dire consequences of the result need not be embraced with meek resignation'.

Timing is a problem: you predict disaster and are accused of Project Fear again. Or wait till economic meltdown proves your warnings correct, by which time it's too late.

The FT tomorrow leads on the British Bankers Association saying they are giving up on single market access, which seems to be what that column in the telegraph was getting at over the weekend.

Sam Coates of the Times on twitter is saying it is not a view shared by other city groups.

I suspect any attempt at writing 'ukip:the sitcom' would be rejected as too far fetched, although Hollywood might go for it - they bought Meg Ryan as a fighter pilot, after all...

At the moment hester if you mention any kind of negative impact, you will be accused of talking the country down, and willing brexit to fail. There is no deviation from the script allowed. The fact that the country has not immediately plunged into complete economic chaos is not the result of measures put in place to relieve the impact, it's because there will be no impact and everyone was lying before the vote, and you can't talk sense to people like this. It's like banging your head on a wall!

Although I can't see it will matter because I don't think labour can get their heads out of their backsides for long enough to agree on anything.

Who exactly do the British Bankers Association represent? Apart from some bankers! How much money do their activities bring into the UK?

I must admit, I felt depressed reading it, meaning a group had just thrown in the towel. No doubt their well paid executives will decamp and it will be the people at the bottom of the heap who lose out.

DH has speculated that the BBA are trying to damage the Brexit campaign and scare the bejesus out of the government by upping the anti. (Rather than them actually 'giving up on the single market'). This would pressure on the BoE and devalue the pound - which is the last thing the government want.Its in effect a gamble but a calculated one to force the hand of the government to do something to reassure the markets that we are actually going to definitely stay in the single market. He thinks they don't gain anything from saying something like that UNLESS they are trying to engineer something.

I'm note sure I agree with that. Though that might tie in with what Sam Coates says.

Tooting (Wandsworth) result:
LAB: 58.5% (+13.7)
CON: 25.7% (-2.7)
LDEM: 10.6% (+4.2)
GRN: 4.6% (-6.5)
SDP: 0.6% (+0.6)
LAB HOLD

Catterick (Richmondshire) result:
CON: 41.8% (+1.3)
LDEM: 37.2% (+37.2)
IND: 20.5% (+20.5)
GRN: 0.5% (-15.4)
CON GAIN from Independent

I wouldn't put anything past the BBA, their spokesperson used to be the frightful Angela Knight, a woman who could reduce me to throwing things at the radio. She then went to represent the energy companies, so I think she gets off on being hated.

Roy Hattersley is in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks fighting Brexit is going to impinge even slightly on the Labour Party at the moment or even in the next couple of years!
Far too much "purer than thou" stuff going on for a practical useful cause to get a look in.

You could be cynical and suggest that the BBA is the "British Bankers Association" and not the "British Banks Association"

Senior bankers will still have jobs even if they have to move abroad with their banks

Senior bankers would easily be able to commute weekly to Frankfurt, so it's no real problem for them.

prettybird the full name of the BBA is the British Bankers' Association.

On the website the acronym is mostly used, but in some documents the full name is given e.g. press release from December 2015 www.bba.org.uk/news/bba-brief/bba-brief-4-december-2015/#.V7bC-Gf6t9A

also Financial Statements sections in its annual reports.