Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Put out a press release saying we are leaving the single market and will proceed under WTO terms until everyone else gives in and bows down to our natural superiority and begs us to trade with them. Then had it deleted.

The Times have a screenshot of the original release here

Oh dear oh dear. Now with the Internet and people doing screen grabs, you can't pretend that you didn't do it.

Wonder if TM will sack him any time soon?

I don't think he's suffered nearly enough yet.

I'm just going to post this here and say.....interesting

http://evolvepolitics.com/labour-appeal-fury-as-high-court-judge-philip-sales-intimate-links-to-tony-blair-revealed/

Although there were three judges, and it was a unanimous decision.

....don't let facts get in the way of conspiracy theories

Thanks Prettybird. That is just utterly ridiculous.

Tony Blair was a founder member of 11 Kbw for about 3 years so not deeply influential. There are also only about 10 sets of chambers which have serious public law experience of which 11 Kbw is one and all are probably politically lefty from my experience of matrix, blackstone and 39 Essex st.

I wish I thought the bottom of the barrel had been scraped. No doubt the Supreme Court will be biased too.

Government pledges to replace EU funding for farmers, scientists etc up until 2020 at least.

AFAIK, it's only a 2 year replacement only, to be funded through diverted EU contributions post exit, so doesn't address interim non-allocation of funds eg UK being passed over science projects due to uncertainty etc.

Separately, I can't actually believe Fox has been given any kind of high profile job whatsoever.

Why? I don't know much about Fox.

Here's a fun New Statesman article February 2016 regarding the disgraced former defence secretary, Dr Liam Fox.:

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/02/less-shameless-world-liam-fox-s-career-would-have-ended-2011

Increasingly the whole Brexit affair is reminding me of the amended version of the poem by Edgar Albert Guest that used to be on the wall of an office I once worked in.
"Somebody said that it couldn’t be done,
But, he with a chuckle replied
That "maybe it couldn’t," but he would be one
Who wouldn’t say so till he’d tried.
So he buckled right in with the trace of a grin
On his face. If he worried he hid it.
He started to sing as he tackled the thing
That couldn't be done

• and he couldn't do it.....

Winky, that article:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37060430

Bit of a con, that, I think. Funds guaranteed post-Brexit till 2020... How long is that likely to actually be? If we manage to leave in 2019, then a few months maybe.

...also Team Brexit already committed to redirect 100% EU subs to NHS, no? Pretty sure I read that on a bus once

The Philip Hammond statement is meaningless, it only guarantees funding until 2020, and only for science projects currently in the pipeline (ie with funding secured). The big issue at the moment is what will happen to projects we are currently entitled to bid for, which may run 2-3 years past that deadline. There is a great deal of reluctance to include us in bids because of the risk. What a shambles! Same for the structural funds.

Motheroffourdragons: I could write a long or a short answer to address your concerns. I'm going to try to write the short version

Economy: oil is only a small proportion of Scotland's economy (smaller than oil is in Norway's). It also has tourism, forestry, food and drink (including whisky), fishing, water, energy (including renewables), software development (including gaming), financial services, call centres, biotech and a successful Higher Education sector.

Yes, it ran a deficit last year when it wouldn't actually have been independent that was higher than the UK's, but a) it was one of (the only?) year in recent years that the deficit was higher than that of the UK (as a proportion of their respective economies) and b) the deficit going forward (as predicted by organisations such as the IFS) assumes the same spending patterns as the UK government whereas the SG might choose to spend differently (eg no Trident renewal, not following the same austerity programme - look at how Iceland recovered post 2008 rather than the UK's double-dip recession)

That's not to say that the first few years of independence will be a piece of cake - but other small countries with fewer natural resources than Scotland (even excluding oil) can survive successfully.

The EU: provided that Scotland follows due constitutional process (and there is nothing to suggest it wouldn't), there is no reason for either Spain or Belgium to veto Scotland's entry. Spain's prime minister has already said as much (their concern is Catalonia's unconstitutional according to the Spanish constitution desire to secede not saying whether that's right or wrong) and Belgium's former prime minister was one of the first EU politicians to make encouraging statements about Scotland joining the EU (and yes, I know he doesn't have the final say)

There is nothing fundamentally flawed with the Scottish economy that would prohibit it from joining the EU. It might have a problem with joining the Eurozone straight away, but as you have to have 3 years following the ERM and meet certain criteria before doing so - which some, successful economies in the EU (such as Sweden and Denmark) never quite for some strange reason meet - that's a choice for Scotland.

Scotland would also be a better fit to EFTA than the UK, should there be a delay to EU membership. (None of the Norwegian's concerns about the UK - whose entry they've said they might block - would apply to Scotland)

The Science in the EU pressure group (well worth following in Facebook) have realistically welcomed Hammond's comment, at least it is on the agenda

"Boom! Some good news. "The Treasury says it will underwrite the [Horizon 2020] funding awards, even when projects continue post-Brexit."
See? Pressure works. Yes, we know this is hardly a science boost - it's treading water/ damage limitation... but this is a key message that UK scientists can now take to their anxious European partners. We now need the Commission also to detail how it will monitor evaluations to prevent any (even unintentional) discrimination. Then we can move onto the other issues of UK national funding, xenophobia, UK attractiveness to talent, immigration rules (now and future), regulations, European Medicine's Agency, patents, and our future relationship with EU science & science policy. Keep fighting - we've achieved a lot over the last 6 weeks getting science properly into national political discussion."

www.facebook.com/scientistsforeu/?ref=ts&fref=ts

The Phillip Hammond statement is not meaningless. It shows there is panic setting in, and that the government has been forced to 'do something' or be seen to do something.

I would also ask the question of whether they are able to make this guarantee, simply on the basis of the fact that, there is a fairly reasonable chance that is becoming increasingly apparent that they can guarantee that money simply because the chances of having left the EU by 2020 are rapidly diminishing, with every little set back and uncovering of problems and obstacles to Brexit.

The next election could be a nightmare if we do go into 2020 like this, with so many things unresolved and up in the air. The Conservatives, could get kicked out in theory, leaving everyone else to finish off, or scrap Brexit somehow whilst they end up retaining their 'moral high ground' over the subject (well WE tried, look who overturned the democratic mandate of the referendum and that's how May 'solves' Brexit)

What happens when the 2019 EU elections come around could get very interesting to say the least, if that's the case and we are now quietly looking at a 2020 exit.

All quite this morning on Brexit related news, but there is this:
www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/08/the-brexit-hangover-just-got-worse?mbid=social_twitter
Article on the Brexit Hangover.

and this article from LSE on the tragedy of Europe:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/is-the-eu-in-danger-of-collapse-following-brexit/
Its a great article which one the one hand says that we should respect the result but on the other hand that
We cannot ignore the legitimacy of the referendum. It was a free vote. However, there are several things the British people can do to reassure that their country is still outward-looking, committed to international cooperation, and a strong ally of Europe.
and
Again, as Churchill said in Switzerland, “If Europe is to be saved from infinite misery, and indeed from final doom, there must be an act of faith in the European family”. We need to leave behind post-Brexit nationalism and keep Britain Great.

whateouldrondo yes, I saw that Scientists for EU welcomed the statement (and it is a small step forward as the govt are at least acknowledging the problem), but read the comments below the post, pretty much everyone is unimpressed. I know it won't make any difference to my own research group, as we are left with the issue of whether future funding streams are going to continue. As it stands, my colleagues at EU universities are reluctant to include us in bids because of the risk (= when I say reluctant, I mean they are refusing or not even telling us about proposals they are putting together).

Do you remember this morning when we were all quite interested in the promises to match various pots of EU funding up to 2020?

Looks like you were spot on, RedToothBrush.