Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Was that the only by election today?

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 26m26 minutes ago
SNP GAIN Renfrew South & Gallowhill (Renfrewshire) from Labour.

And one more in Worcestershire - result not in yet, it seems.

During WWII and again after the Troubles broke out, travellers were asked to produce ID at the border. During that period only main cross border routes were open, and security checks were performed. Border security involved British troops equipped with semi automatic weapons and bristling with walkie talkies leaning into your car and looking at your documentation, asking your business, destination, etc. If you were on a bus (for instance some buses went from Dublin to Donegal via parts of Fermanagh) the bus would be stopped and soldiers would board and walk slowly down the aisle taking a good hard look at all the passengers. It wasn't at all friendly.

A proposal was floated about ten years ago to introduce checks on individuals travelling from NI to Britain. This may well end up becoming reality. If this happens, Unionists will be up in arms while Sinn Fein won't take border checks lying down.

I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him.

Last one

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Conservative HOLD Ombersley (Worcestershire).

Not a very exciting night.

I suspect that what Boris was thinking of was travel from the rest of the UK, e.g. Holyhead, Fishguard without needing to provide any sort of ID, not between NI and the Republic.

But then, he probably doesn't even know where NI is.

Just looked the Ombersley result up:

Ombersley (Worcestershire) result:
CON: 63.2% (+15.3)
LDEM: 14.8% (+9.7)
UKIP: 14.0% (-19.2)
IND: 7.9% (+7.9)
Lab and Grn didn't stand.

The encouraging thing is that the UKIP vote is substantially down. But the cynic in me says 'why not, when they have effectively taken control of the Tory party?'. I imagine it's the sort of place where they have voted Tory since the year dot.

You're probably right there, Peregrina.

Nigel Farage Verified account @Nigel_Farage
Brexit must mean proper border controls and out of the single market. Anything less would be a complete betrayal.
12 Aug

www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/belfast-rights-campaigner-begins-legal-challenge-to-brexit-1.2753149?utm_content=sf-man
David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen
It may be that this claim, relying on the Good Friday Agreement, is stronger than the existing A50 legal claims.

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen

Devolution/Good Friday Agreement issues often treated as afterthoughts in London - but as with British Bill of Rights, they can be crucial.

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen
And remember: the referendum question was expressly for the "United Kingdom" to leave the EU, not just England and Wales.

All, or nothing.

Ciarán McGonagle ‏@cpmcgonagle
@DavidAllenGreen the Republic of Ireland is also a signatory to the GFA. Any amendment would presumably require their consent.

With regard to NI, an interesting point in this article: if the NI/ Ireland border does remain 'absolutely unchanged', as Boris promised, how will we control immigration from that part of the EU?
I have seen suggestion that you could do it through payroll rather than borders, but that has its own issues and would be applicable to Scotland too I'm sure. I doubt that this would satisfy the likes of Farage either.

I personally think we will end up having massive issues with illegal immigration over the next 20 years, and like the US, end up having to have amnesties at some point over it.

With regard to Brexit though, the bottom line here is that someone will HAVE to be 'betrayed' whether we stay in or leave. Legally, it may well be the case that it is the Farages that are, as this article on LSE about what Brexit means and what it doesn't mean sort of suggests:
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/what-does-brexit-means-brexit-actually-mean/

The fact that Farage has said that today says that seven weeks on, he might be starting to get nervous already.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-open-letter-schoolfriend-brexit-poster-nazi-song-dulwich-college-gas-them-all-a7185336.html
Meanwhile a schoolfriend has it in for Farage

Donald Tusk Verified account @eucopresident
I intend to consult all leaders on possible future reforms ahead of our meeting at 27 in Bratislava
www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2016/09/16-informal-meeting/
On the other hand David Allen Green is suggesting this is an interesting development and could mean a new EU treaty instead of a50 as not something that was previously on the cards.

I guess we could be kicked out via treaty. And then that's Ireland and NI betrayed.

I do think the a50 route is far less likely than the treaty route. Which could be why there is a gag order on the first a50 legal challenge pending its hearing in October, as the government are waiting to see if the treaty route happens (and then the royal prerogative might not end up in court at all - the government REALLY will not want it to, if they can help it at all).

Though this is a funny response:
Kevin Hector @kevinhector
@DavidAllenGreen @eucopresident if EU is simply renamed, have we technically "left" the EU?

It is depressing that meetings about our fate are going on, without us. It doesn't strike me much like taking back control. More like waiting outside the head teachers door, waiting to be punished like a naughty school kid.
(If you read the Farage schoolfriend article this analogy is all the more depressing. And what's our policy on stopping extremism in schools today? Focussed on ethnic and religious minorities. Great).

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37055521
Blind Eye turned to electoral fraud. Particularly in Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities. I need to try and find the report though as this BBC article is very short and not very good tbh.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37055398
Can the Republicans dump Trump?

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/with-elections-looming-in-key-eu-states-theresa-may-must-focus-on-politics-rather-than-personalities/
Why May can't rely on relationships with other heads of state, and will have to focus on policy, due to European elections

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-under-30s-in-the-uk-a-generation-used-to-not-getting-what-they-voted-for/
The under 30s used to not getting what they voted for.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/133767?reveal_response=yes
Brexit Department answer a question:
Petition: Ask the Government not to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.
Government responded
“The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected and delivered.

The British people have voted to leave the European Union and their will must be respected and delivered. Article 50 explicitly recognises that a Member State may decide to withdraw “in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”. It is for the Member State concerned to determine what those constitutional requirements are.

Department for Exiting the European Union

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/lessons-we-can-and-cant-draw-from-canada/
Lessons from Canada. Labour and the Lib Dems, and how they could recover

www.buzzfeed.com/coralewis/trudeau-could-be-secret-weapon-for-universal-basic-income?utm_term=.pgzwXvJj8#.yerxzeMrA
Lessons from Canada. Universal income. US based but also relevant to UK

The full Pickles report is here www.gov.uk/government/publications/securing-the-ballot-review-into-electoral-fraud

There's an editorial from Pickles in the Telegraph, which doesn't really say anything that wasn't already said in the wake of the Rahman case, tbh

Looks like there was more Ukip infighting in that Ombersley result, too, as the Independent candidate was a Ukip county councillor previously.

The losing SNP candidate in Irving West was Nicola Sturgeon's dad.

Interestingly, NS' dad got the most votes. I saw somewhere that the Labour candidate won on the 6th stage - so arguably on the strength of the Conservative 2nd preferences.

Doesn't look like anyone else does either Mother - the press release (which really didn't say what the title did) has been removed.

On a truly disturbing note, Nigel Farage has grown the creepiest looking moustache. Should kill off any remaining chance of him being elected to anything, on the other hand!

Oh, and the Court of Appeal has upheld Labour's appeal on cut off dates. The members who brought the original case now want to go to the Supreme Court.

There is no end in sight.

Interesting: using Brexit to make their case for further expansion

@yourHeathrow: Heathrow handles 29% of non-EU UK exports - Gatwick 0.2%. Only expanding Heathrow will secure our trading future. t.co/zePYM45MnF

Scotland could lose billions in funding after Brexit, and the government couldn't match it:
www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-could-cost-scots-6bn-8605369#xKoIVH6kJAI9bzhq.97

Scotland losing billions would completely P* them off.
Those of you who are Scots, do you think you will gain Independence, say within the next 10 years?

To keep Scotland an N Ireland sweet, TM will have to work out some sort of fudge. I wonder who she wants to upset least?

The Heathrow thing is just Brexit -balls though as private eye would say. They're determined to deliver expansion at any price otherwise they don't get their bonuses.

It's akin to a 24th June press release to declare independence from body hair.

I can't link but there was an interesting article by John Harris today in the guardian on the Labour Party and the militant tendency. Less vociferous than usual btl.

John Harris: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/11/trotskyists-on-the-march-chaos-ahead

Peregrina - I suspect she wants to annoy Scotland less, but I think it is more important not to completely fuck up NI, and it will be very hard not to do so.

How on earth is it a good move to be out of the single market? I can't see any reason why that would be a good thing.

Well the Trots and the Nazis did well out of the 1930s German depression in terms of support (although the left spent all its time fighting amongst itself rather than doing anything else more meaningful) and it was in the Nazis interest to let the country go into depression, as this meant that they could gain support to challenge the established regime.

Oh.

For everyone else, leaving the single market shit idea.

The Brexit Department.

You'll note here that there seems to be a lack of names to most positions. Whether its because they are unfilled or there was not enough space for them I don't know.... My money is on the former though.

I think howabout and I will have different opinions on the likelihood of Scottish independence

I'd like to hope that Scotland will achieve its independence within 10 years (not least of which because my 79 year old father wants to see it in his lifetime ) but I'm still not sure it will (fortunately I'm confidently expecting my Dad to live to 100 ).

It depends on how well the SNP/NS manage the competing pressures of those that want independence (and Indyref2) now, those that want to know where/if we would fit in the EU, those that want a break from referendums, while negotiating (both above and below the line) with both the EU and WM.

I know NS didn't want Indyref2 until the polls were consistently 60% in favour of independence but she might be bounced into having it sooner than ideally she'd have liked.

TM may try to keep Scotland sweet with a better form of federalism (although I doubt she'd go as far as Full Fiscal Autonomy, as that might demolish the final shibboleth, that Scotland couldn't survive on its own) - but personally I think it's too late.

There is also the dichotomy of saying that if Scotland were to leave the UK and remain/rejoin the EU, there would have to be a hard land border between Scotland and England while simultaneously saying that no hard border would be required between Northern Ireland and Eire.

Interesting organisation chart, anyone would think this was the most complex and demanding challenge facing the UK government in modern times......

Going on the recruitment frenzy in both government and the big consultancies then I think it is true to say there is a skills crisis.

Interesting looking at the Linked in profiles of the names in there. In some cases a couple of years in Beijing or on EU affairs is enough but the Director responsible for trade has a very impressive CV with lots of experience. This may be unfair because I should imagine there are few jobs in the UK civil service that did not involve experience of the EU. At least our new Sir Humphreys have seen some experience of the rest of Europe and the rest of the world unlike our politicians

I think today was a clear demonstration that if you take your foot off Fox's throat for even a second, he'll fuck something up. No more holidays for TM for a while, I guess.

I suspect there are more than a few politicians willing Team GB to pull off some amazing feats in Rio, if only to take the attention off them for a few days.

I've missed the news. What has Fox done?