Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

I meant they are irrelevant to to question of whether Russia is a human rights abuser itself.

No, but Russia is so often picked out as the bogeyman, when the human rights record of whatever ghastly regime we want to trade with, goes completely ignored.

Swedish Whether the BRICS economies and / or the next eleven are all that or not they are a major part of the rest of the world economy the Brexiteers claim leaving the EU frees us up to have a bright new future dancing with unicorns trading with. All the signs are that the sorts of political values we shared with the rest of the EU in terms of the nature of how we used our influence in the rest of the world and the terms on which we traded with it will be the first thing to be conceded in the cause of our bright new future.

Maths All but the last sentence of your second paragraph may be true of China, but it is a very narrow and simplistic way in which to view a country of a billion people and it would be especially misguided to allow that to dictate the way in which we interact with it globally. The sporadic raids on corrupt officials are in fact the only control mechanism any Chinese ruler, including Mao, has ever had over the local bureaucracy. The country is simply too big, and the principal "heaven is high and the emperor far away " has always guided the corrupt and organic behaviour of local officials and their interaction with the parallel world of criminal gang networks. However in a country that in living memory was gripped by brutal anarchy and near fragmentation, the current regime has delivered what it's people have always expected above all of their rulers stability and prosperity, and a unified China ( along with taking it from being one of the most equal societies in the world to the 19th most unequal and failing to control the excesses of an unbridled market economy, those two factors alone probably account for more unfairness and suffering within China than the factors that you highlight). It is only recently with western influence that Chinese have come to see themselves in terms of their rights as individuals, rather than in terms of their responsibilities to deliver stability and prosperity to the patriarchal lineage first, wider community second and state third. Even Tiananmen was more about the intellectual elites fulfilling their traditional duty to bring problems experienced by the people to the attention of the ruler and put forward ideas that might improve their rule, rather than embracing western democracy alone. China is an evolving society and if the rights of the individual remain secondary the regime has also delivered in other ways, and continuing to deliver prosperity to it's growing middle class and maintaining stability will be it's priority and consume it's energies for a long time to come. I'll dismount my soapbox now.

I reckon Farage will return.

So do I. Thought that as soon as he resigned again after the vote.

Kaija, any chance you can post the N Ireland letter bigger? It just comes up tiny on my screen. Or tell us the source and I'll go and look for it? Ireland/N Ireland is one of my biggest worries about Brexit.

Sapphire, try this one:

www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/execoffice/Letter%20to%20PM%20from%20FM%20%26%20dFM.pdf

Thanks Kaija. It does seem like an impossible circle to square. Like all the others.

The thing with human rights, is that money can buy your way out of them.

KIPPER NEWS
Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick
Ukip Chman Paul Oakden tells me of 3 NEC members who "resigned", Victoria Ayling has withdrawn resignation; Mick McGough thinking about it

Owen Smith has formally requested the leadership contest be extended to 8th Oct.
FFS

VOTING INTENTION
CON 38% (-4)
LAB 31% (+3)
LD 8% (-)
UKIP 13% (+1)
OTH 11% (+1)
(8-9 Aug)
You Gov

Interesting... Kipper and Labour rise.

politicalscrapbook.net/2016/08/the-ecuadorian-embassy-has-finally-had-enough-of-julian-assange-and-wikileaks/
Slightly off topic, but it relates to the US Election, as WikiLeaks have it in for Clinton, but looks like Ecuador are fed up of Assange. Timing is funny isn't it?

varianceexplained.org/r/trump-tweets/
Analysis of Trumps tweets is scary. (but unsurprising)

Re the discussion of energy and China, this seemed relevant

Australia blocks Chinese firm from stake in electricity grid

And still on the topic of energy, this time in relation to renewables, apparently Scotland generated 107% of its energy requirements on Monday night from the wind power generated during the storms. (It was on the BBC this morning but nowhere on the BBC news app )

Such a shame that WM pulled back from renewables. So shortsighted While I understand that they only "work" when there is wind, with the advances being made in battery storage/capacitors, then it is certainly a better choice for our future than fracking

There was a TNS poll released today as well as that YouGov one:

TNS (changes vs GE15):

CON 39 (+1)
LAB 26 (-5)
LD 10 (+2)
UKIP 11 (-2)
GRN 7 (+3)
SNP 4 (-1)

5th-8th
N=1,199
www.tnsglobal.co.uk/press-release/may-better-britain-corbyn-tories-have-13pt-lead-over-labour

I don't know what the two results mean. Possibly the pollsters haven't got any better at predicting stuff, or maybe people are now actively lying to them?

Found a link to an article about Scotland's wind power generation at the weekend. "Only" 106% and it was at the weekend, not on Monday shows how good my short term memory is

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/scotland-wind-energy-renewable-power-electricity-wwf-scotland-a7183006.html

Wonder if TM knew about this before the Hinkley decision:
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/aug/11/nuclear-espionage-charge-for-china-firm-with-one-third-stake-in-hinkley-point

"The Chinese company with a major stake in the proposed Hinkley Point C nuclear power station has been charged by the US government over nuclear espionage, according to the US justice department.

In a 17-page indictment, the US government said nuclear engineer Allen Ho, employed by the China General Nuclear Power Company, and the company itself had unlawfully conspired to develop nuclear material in China without US approval and “with the intent to secure an advantage to the People’s Republic of China”."

pretty that news also made The Guardian however it does point out that:
"The weather brought travel disruption, with some bridges closed, ferries cancelled and trains affected but helped boost the country’s renewable energy production."

It also grounded an oil rig that was being moved from Norway to Malta for salvage on the Western Isles. It's now leaking diesel oil that was still in its tanks

But we can't stop the wind - it would be causing disruption whether or not we were also generating power from it.

We can make a choice about fracking (and Chinese owned power stations )

Prettybird, that is so true wrt battery tech and the possibilities of wind power. If the weather is going to bring clouds in the form of travel and transport disruption, why not a silver lining? It's an ill wind, etc...

May had objections as minister to Hinkley, with espionage presumably on top of her list of concerns since her remit was MI5/6.

I am not saying anything about how anyone should interact with China globally. I am pointing out that there is a vast difference between the rhetoric used by politicians and the media when it comes to Russia, as compared with the pussyfooting around China (and the middle east).

If politicians and media are going to be patient with China because 'It is only recently with western influence that Chinese have come to see themselves in terms of their rights as individuals, rather than in terms of their responsibilities to deliver stability and prosperity to the patriarchal lineage first, wider community second and state third' then perhaps the same courtesy should be extended to Russia, because after all, Russia has come a long way too. Russia has come a long, long way further than China has, actually.

I frankly suspect an ulterior motive for the Russia bashing. It is no secret that the US would like to see pretty much anyone other than Putin and his team running Russia. The State Department deposed the elected president of Ukraine and chose his successor. They stood by while former ally Mubarak was overthrown in Egypt. They supported efforts to get rid of Assad and still do, despite initially the danger posed by Islamic fundamentalism that ultimately crystalised in the form of ISIS (just as Russia warned it would actually). I would be concerned if I were the president of Russia.

TheBathroomSink, the TNS poll predates the YouGov one. The Yougov one might have benefitted from the first Labour leadership debate.

Math I don't think we should have "patience" with China because that suggests we still have some sort of paternal role in the world and have somehow moved ahead on some linear path of truth and righteousness and that we are helping the rest of the world along it to some sort of utopian enlightenment. Or you might call it Imperialism. What I was saying was that trotting out a list of the western liberal human right's cause celebres was to have a skewed perspective on modern China and our relationship with the second largest economy in the world. They are on a development path which is delivering a better life to some and greater equality and all sorts of injustices to others arising out of the context of it's own culture and history, it may be heading towards developing into a fairer society or it may be that all the internal pressures will erupt into chaos, nobody has been able to call that one in all the time since 1976 when it started to emerge as a market economy with staggering (by the standards of western economies) growth rates.

However as part of the EU we had a chance to assert a set of common political values in our relationships with the rest of the world and the way we traded with them much as other geo political alliances do in other parts of the world asean.org/asean/about-asean/overview/ news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/5195834.stm . Now our relationships with countries like China will be, whether it is a soft or hard Brexit, one that is more desperation than patience.

So we have limited our power to resist issues like the dumping of cheap steel, infringing international law in aggressive territory acquisition in the South China Sea or their centuries old practise of using economic partnership to acquire advanced scientific and technological capability (the issue for me with Hinkley as well as it's doubtful economic and technological viability) which is where we should be focusing our impatience rather than focusing on a western liberal perspective on human rights. In Russia the same applies where it is pushing at the boundaries of International Law and relations. I may as much the victim of the stereotypical representation in the western press of Russia as you are on China but there seem to be plenty of examples of that.

On holiday in the West Country this week, I noticed several signs in various places saying that funding had been received from the EU.
E.g. The 'Revitalising Farm Tourism Programme'.
Never noticed this kind of thing before; took it all for granted. We're going to miss it when it's gone...

We will all learn to dance to China's tune sooner or later, not Russia's tune, even though the rhetoric would indicate that the Red Army is champing at the bit on the Russian side of the border and in no time flat we will all be raped in the streets and the men sent to shovel salt in Siberia, and life as we understand it will be no more.

It is probably instructive to remember when it comes to norms of International Law and relations that the US has invaded more states and overturned more elected leaders and set up more puppet regimes both overtly and covertly since 1900 than any other state, and continues to do so and continues to seek to drag other countries along on its international adventures. Western liberal perspective is sometimes a synonym for hypocrisy.

We're going to miss it when it's gone...

Ah, no we won't because we will have the £350 million a week, and then we will have all those super-duper deals which are beneficial to us when the rest of the world has flocked to trade with us in double quick time, so we will be in clover.

Don't forget we'll all have a unicorn, too. I shall be most annoyed if I don't get mine.

It must be a blue unicorn. Not a pink one. (pink being clearly burgundy)

Of course.

Exactly Maths, neither patience or paranoia are appropriate words to use in relation to international relations. Try understanding, respect and pragmatism.

This sort of thing www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/11/the-guardian-view-on-doing-business-with-china-not-a-question-of-whether-but-when-and-how?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Promises the Leavers must be held to:
infacts.org/brexit-want-one-leavers-promised/
With regard to NI, an interesting point in this article: if the NI/ Ireland border does remain 'absolutely unchanged', as Boris promised, how will we control immigration from that part of the EU?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-35692452

Boris just shows what a complete chump he is when he says:

"There's been a free travel area between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland for, I think, getting on for 100 years. There's no reason at all why that should cease to be the case."

You forget, chum, that the Republic of Ireland went into the Common Market at the same time as the UK did. That's why it's no longer the case.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
Labour GAIN Irvine West (North Ayrshire) from SNP.