Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

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Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Yes, I do think they are prime UKIP targets. I remember the literature coming through the door at the last election from the Tories and it was abundantly clear that they were scared stiff of losing votes to UKIP. In the end though, I suspect the Tory voters realised that they could split the vote, and so returned to the fold.

In the previous year's local government elections in Witney (Cameron's seat), UKIP did split the vote, allowing the Labour candidate in. I suspect that they had this in mind at the General Election.

I don't know, I think if May can keep everyone believing that they are going to get what they want from Brexit, she might hold them off.

There's also the fact that they are in just as bad a state as Labour. The few recent council elections haven't seen them make huge inroads, and in several places, their vote has gone down substantially. The leadership election is an utter shambles, and will follow Labour into the courts, plus Arron Banks is shit-stirring in the background, and he's not particularly loyal, he just likes power. If he can't get his own way by throwing his money around, I fully expect him to jack it in and set up another party.

The leadership candidates they do have range from 'who?' to 'not in a million years' and not one of them looks like a leader of a national party - Farage might have been a lying scumbag but he was very good at telling people what they wanted to hear without coming across as a complete swivel-eyed loon, which is why he was the usually the one trusted to go on camera (Carswell doesn't count because he's insufficiently batshit for most of Ukip's tastes).

I reckon Farage will return.

Northern Ireland has laid out its concerns. Not sure how May is going to square this one.

Sorry - 2nd page here

I do too, winky but I think that can only be achieved now after the leadership election. Then again, they are trying to disband the NEC which makes the rules so...

I can't remember where I saw it, but there is quite a lot of feeling that the Conservatives have a lot more to fear than Labour from UKIP. I tend to agree with this hugely.

Most young people are educated and are far more likely to be Labour voters.

Ah, apparently the problem with the GMB vote is that the Corbyn campaign didn't like the question, because it was biased.

The question was:
Who do you think is best placed to lead the Labour Party to a General Election victory and serve as Prime Minister.

It is unfair because it plays on the 'Corbyn is unelectable' narrative - which it does, I agree, but if you are a union who wants an electable Labour government, what else are you going to ask?

I think that's a very fair question actually.

That's what the Labour Party is supposed to be aiming for, not for ideological purity and making a point about the moral rights and wrongs.

What is the point of the Labour Party is not to provide an opposition? If they're not prepared to do that, should't they hand over to the SNP or someone who might just do their one and only job.

Don't ask difficult questions. Winning is irrelevant now, remember? It's all about the rallies

That's interesting Red about Tories fearing Labour. I wonder if that is Labour as it is now, or a theoretical functioning Labour?

It must be a theoretical functioning Labour. The current one wouldn't scare the Green Party.

I think we can expect to see sanctions on Russia eased if not dropped completely over the next few months, with the unfreezing of assets, etc accomplished in due course too. And all Russia had to do was wait and watch the self destruction .

Most young people are educated and are far more likely to be Labour voters.

I remember reading some research about the more educated a population, the more likely it is to be politically to the left. I know this might seem obvious but it was backed up with good research (I think). But, annoyingly, I've never been able to find it again. Anyway, I've idly wondered if this was, partially, behind Blair's desire for 50% of the population (well, from 18+ at that stage) to get a degree. I know there were clearly other reasons but it's good way to retain power.

That would be disturbing, math.

Clause One of the Labour Party constitution is "1 This organisation shall be known as ‘The Labour Party’ (hereinafter referred to as ‘the party’). Its purpose is to organise and maintain in Parliament and in the country a political Labour Party."

What's the point in being in Parliament if you never aspire to being in Government

Even though I won't vote Labour any more even though I'm left wing because they no longer speak for me in Scotland, I do despair about their actions or rather inactivity in Westminster

I don't think it would be disturbing. I am scratching my head at the level of antiRussian hyperbole. It's almost to the point of warmongering.

Phrases like 'Russian human rights abuses' coming from the mouths of politicians and media in a country where driving while black can get you shot to death have a gratuitously aggressive ring to them.

... and all the while, there is a deafening silence about China.

What's wrong with saying that there are serious human rights abuses in Russia (all well documented by human rights organisations)? The fact that there may be human rights abuses elsewhere is irrelevant.

What's wrong with not saying that there are human rights issues in China?We want to trade with them, so we are keeping schtum, in case they take offence. Presumably we are not too fussed about trade with Russia at the moment.

Ditto with human rights issues in some of the Gulf States: we wouldn't want to compromise any Arms sales would we? Unless, of course, as with Saddam Hussein, after spending a number of years arming him, we changed our minds and decided that he was a bad guy after all.

I don't think there's deafening silence on China, I think the whole Hinckley deal is a big sign that May is far less keen on hitching our wagon to China than Osborne was. Doesn't mean I think we should cosy up to Put in instead.

The Hinkley issue is with worries about the yellow peril security not human rights abuses. Interestingly Cameron was equally paranoid about China in his early PM days and actually mentioned China as a potential nuclear threat in the 2010 pre election debates. Five years later he had rolled over to the extent of signing an agreement that gave them not just the Hinkley Point opportunity but a much desired toehold in the global market for nuclear energy ( and frankly markets rather than wars are what China is about, beyond the South China Sea at least). If Brexit really does mean hard Brexit the only way to make a success of it will be to trade with the growing BRIC economies on whatever terms you can get. Once we leave the EU we also leave the moral high ground and all that the bloc stand for in terms of its geopolitical position in the world.

The BRICS ain't all that - lots of stalled growth

Yes indeed Peregrina.

China is not a democratic state at all, continues to oppress Tibet, is guilty of industrial pollution on a massive scale, suppresses all opposition to the ruling Communist Party (Falun Gong, etc), does not allow freedom of religion (while the American Republican Party looks the other way) and the ruling cadre of the moment carries out witch hunts within the Communist Party itself.

I suspect Hinkley is on hold because May is hoping to show the EU through this posturing that she won't be dictated to. Meanwhile, Britain is expected to remain opposed to high tariffs on dumped steel from China. China has very boldly expressed its impatience. But Britain is China's friend when it comes to EU tariffs on rolled steel, so a case of swings and roundabouts. Reversing course completely on the Hinkley project is unthinkable at this point, especially as there is significant French input and investment into it and upcoming trade negotiations with the EU, France included, will be important for Britain. No British government can tell the world that all decisions and agreements entered into by previous governments are up in the air. Plus another purely Chinese power station project is in the works and Britain faces an energy shortage in a few years thanks to the (incomprehensibly stupid) decision to back away from wind farms.

I suppose there is no need to remind anyone of the fact that women are second class citizens in most of the middle east.

When I said human rights abuses elsewhere are irrelevant, I meant they are irrelevant to to question of whether Russia is a human rights abuser itself. Not that we shouldn't care about them (and I do, very strongly of course).