Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE

The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?

May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.

Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.

Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.

Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.

What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.

Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.

We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.

May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.

Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.

This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.

No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.

-------------------------

Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017

Last thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2690632-Westminstenders-Continues-Boris-is-having-a-bad-week-Corbyn-resists-Its-gonna-be-a-long-summer?pg=1

Trump is back on form.

When talking about Hillary Clinton maybe choosing the next supreme court judges, he said there was nothing they could do about it, if Clinton got in. Well maybe the 2nd Amendment people could.

The consensus seems to be that he was suggesting Clinton be assassinated by the pro gun faction.

In many other countries, this too, would be potentially treason or a criminal offence. In America this is free speech.

A rather sad article about what is happening in
Sunderland

Westminster they know ignores them. I wonder when people will wake up to realise how badly Farage conned them?

Gosh, that is depressing Peregrina. I wonder how people will react when they realised they have been so ruthlessly conned.

More on Sunderland and Nissan from BBC news

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37024707

That's a really depressing article, Peregrina but also sort of funny in a black humour way. The £350 million for the NHS, the reopening of the shipyards and pits, trust in Boris Johnson, "Nissan will never ever get a workforce like this", "Make Britain great again", "far too many immigrants", a revolt "against London"... I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

That article from Sunderland is certainly depressing.

But those who believe Brexit is the best way will simply blame delays in executing our leaving the EU rather than actual Brexit.

winky

I don't know winky, the most ideologically driven commentators will certainly take that line, but I am not so sure about the people who voted Brexit genuinely believing that it would improve their lot...I suspect they will realise they have been taken for a ride, like Shirley in the Guardian piece

Oh dear winky! Too near the mark.

But, and I have sort of said this before, so sorry for repeating myself:
the story I want to hear is about the Tory voters who voted Leave. These are the ones who Cameron was trying to shut up with his Referendum. He failed, so they should be happy. So come on BBC/Guardian let's hear their story.

OK the Telegraph and Express are manfully trying to do their bit e.g. 'Talks begin' i.e. we are beginning to have the conversations we should have had last March.

news.sky.com/story/khan-calls-for-delay-in-setting-off-brexit-clock-10530285?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
Sadiq Khan wants a50 delay until after the German Election and "we've got to have access to the single market".

BUT in the same article:

Theresa Villiers, the former Northern Ireland Secretary and Leave campaigner, said she would "start to be nervous" at a delay of the type Mr Khan suggested, saying a month or two after the indicated date of January would be acceptable

Sophy Ridge ‏@SophyRidgeSky
The PM spoke with President Putin today [yesterday]. According to Kremlin, "both sides expressed dissatisfaction with the current state of cooperation"

Note here, Erdogan was in Turkey yesterday... and an article on how we are out gunned by Russia is in the press today. Expect an increased defence budget especially if Trump wins.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-quietly-scrap-one-iain-8595497#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Tories scrap IDS unemployment supervision plan.

rightsinfo.org/plans-scrap-human-rights-act-may-scrapped/
May's aim of getting rid of the Human Rights Act might be binned.
I'm sure that will go down well with Leave voters. Apparently the best way to tell if someone voted Leave was to look at their opinion on bringing back the death penalty, so this is not going to make them happy.

I wonder if the decision, may have something to do with the below, and the idea of 'acquired rights' - it may be entirely possible that since we got these as EU citizens we CAN'T get rid of them... ESPECIALLY if we want to trade with the EU. They may make it a requirement in theory! Which would be a turn up for the books.

opil.ouplaw.com/page/536/brexit-debate-map-2.0
Oxford Uni have a 'legal debate' list with relevant legal precidents. Summary below. LOTS in here.

I. The Mechanics of Leaving the EU
A) Process and consequences of treaty withdrawal under international law
B) The Article 50 process of withdrawing from the EU
C) Options for the UK’s engagement with the EU after withdrawal

II. Impact on the Application of EU Law in the UK

III. Impact on EU Citizenship and Acquired Rights
A) UK citizens living in and travelling to the EU
B) EU citizens living in the UK and UK immigration policy
C) The continuing effect of vested rights

IV. Impact on the UK’s International Trade Agreements and the Role of the WTO

V. Impact on Human Rights and Environmental Protection in the UK
A) Human rights, employment law, and equality
B) Environmental protection and climate change

order-order.com/2016/08/10/labour-hq-preparing-for-purge/
Labour HQ preparing for a 'purge'
It sounds like its going to be expensive...

U.S. Secret Service ✔ ‎@SecretService
The Secret Service is aware of the comments made earlier this afternoon.
11:39 PM - 9 Aug 2016

I agree Peregrina that it is the UKIP voters and the Conservatives who set the Brexit agenda. That was why I thought the Conservative home survey of all Party members was interesting. Not all Tories wanted Brexit but almost 75% want hard Brexit given Brexit means Brexit. I think it is also fairly safe to assume most UKIPers meant hard Brexit too.

So I think the media continuing to place emphasis on options for soft Brexit while appeasing Labour Brexiteers in the North is completely missing the point.

^Not all Tories wanted Brexit but almost 75% want hard Brexit given Brexit means Brexit. I think it is also fairly safe to assume most UKIPers meant hard Brexit too.

So I think the media continuing to place emphasis on options for soft Brexit while appeasing Labour Brexiteers in the North is completely missing the point.^

Even assuming that the Conservative Home percentages apply to all those who voted Leave, this means that only 39% of those who voted in the referendum are in favour of a Hard Brexit (assuming those who voted Remain would prefer a Soft Brexit). So there is a majority among the voting public opposed to a Hard Brexit. That's probably why there is such emphasis on Soft Brexit, the alternative is politically unfeasible.

Pippa Crerar ‏@PippaCrerar 25m25 minutes ago
Pippa Crerar Retweeted Jess Phillips MP
Seriously, can't overstate how much of a turn-off the lack of women at top of Labour Party is right now.

Jess Phillips MP @jessphillips
All the mayors can go on an actual man date now. We can serve the tea.

Sam Coates of The Times is tweeting about an IFS study on Brexit impact. It's long:
Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 20m20 minutes ago
Battle for Brexit - the Institute for Fiscal Studies weighs in with a major study warning of the consequences of leaving the single market
Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 19m19 minutes ago
Many Tory MPs doubt that UK will stay in the single market. IFS sets out what it sees are the challenges. Who is right? IFS says:

1. Despite the efforts of some to confuse the issue "membership of" the single market is entirely different to "access to" it.

1. "Membership" involves elimination of barriers to trade in a way that no existing trade deal, customs union or free trade area achieves.

3 In particular single market "membership" means reducing barriers like licensing and regulatory constraints to supplying goods or services

1. But no large country currently enjoys membership of the Single Market without free movement of people alongside a financial contribution.

1. Single Market "access" virtually meaningless as a concept. Any WTO country fr Afghanistan to Zimbabwe has ‘access’ to the EU for exports

1. New trade deals unlikely to compensate fully for EU trade. The EU accounts for 44% of our exports and 39% of our service exports.

1. If the UK were able to access European Free Trade Association’s existing deals - they would cover over 10% of UK exports.

1. UK service exports are especially important. They accounted for 31% of all exports in 1999 and 44% of exports in 2015.

1. Single Market membership could be worth 4% on GDP relative to reliance on WTO terms. A free trade deal could reduce this figure

10. The EU is the UK’s largest service export destination, accounting for 40% of exports. Emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India - < 5%.

11. While leaving EU will free UK from having to make a budgetary contribution, loss of trade could depress tax receipts by a larger amount.

Douglas Carswell MP ‏@DouglasCarswell 18m18 minutes ago
@SamCoatesTimes what's essential is that UK firms only have to comply with SM rules when selling to SM.

Sam Coates Times Retweeted
Douglas Carswell MP ‏@DouglasCarswell 19m19 minutes ago
@SamCoatesTimes sounds like re run if referendum debate. VL was clear about leaving SM. We won

I think Douglas Carswell might be stretching the truth there a little. Vote Leave was in no way clear about leaving the single market, and still isn't.

Sam Coates Times Retweeted Henry Mance
Awkward....Sam Coates Times added,

Henry Mance @henrymance
Worth noting that the Conservative manifesto promised to keep Britain in the single market www.ft.com/content/73662f92-5e4b-11e6-bb77-a121aa8abd95

Dispatch from my wi-fi deprived holiday:

Brexit and a Tale of Two Cities (of London) - www.politico.eu/newsletter/morning-exchange/politico-morning-exchange-brexit-financial-split-deutsche-borses-brussels-strategy-uk-bank-rules/

I also read this article that entirely sums up my feekings about Jeremy Corbyn's continued "leadership" of the Labour Party - www.byline.com/column/11/article/1177

Sorry if posted previously. I read it days ago, but online time has been in short supply.

missmoon that is what is interesting. The conservative home page survey applies to ALL Conservative members, not just those who voted Leave.

(Although it is a fairly small self selecting sample and it is not clear whether Conservative members are more or less Brexiteer than Conservative voters).

howabout I see, thanks! Yes, that is interesting. I had assumed the question was for Leave voters only, although presumably they are over-represented (wrt Tory Remain voters) on Conservative Home?

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton
Unite has officially endorsed Corbyn. GMB has backed Smith (only latter held members' ballot).

www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/trump-lies/
Donald Trump legal case from 2007. This is a jaw dropper of a read.

For two straight days, they asked Trump question after question that touched on the same theme: Trump’s honesty.

The lawyers confronted the mogul with his past statements — and with his company’s internal documents, which often showed those statements had been incorrect or invented. The lawyers were relentless. Trump, the bigger-than-life mogul, was vulnerable — cornered, out-prepared and under oath.

Thirty times, they caught him.

That deposition — 170 transcribed pages — offers extraordinary insights into Trump’s relationship with the truth. Trump’s falsehoods were unstrategic — needless, highly specific, easy to disprove. When caught, Trump sometimes blamed others for the error or explained that the untrue thing really was true, in his mind, because he saw the situation more positively than others did.

In his presidential campaign, Trump has sought to make his truth-telling a selling point. He nicknamed his main Republican opponent “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz. He called his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, “A PATHOLOGICAL LIAR!” in a recent Twitter message. “I will present the facts plainly and honestly,” he said in the opening of his speech at the Republican National Convention.

The interrogation finally ended after two days. Trump’s attorney made a final demand.

“I want the record to be crystal clear that every single word, every question, every answer, every word, is confidential,” said the attorney, Mark Ressler.

We have liars in this country but I'm glad I'm not American. Even if that means having to put up with Farage instead.

I'm not sure that Donald Trump and truth have ever actually met.

On GMB/Smith:
Sophy Ridge ‏@SophyRidgeSky 53m53 minutes ago
Corbyn campaign source blames "certain right wing political officers" for GMB Owen Smith nomination

How many members does the Conservative Party have? I assumed relatively low compared to other parties and distinctly more towards the Redwood end hence the concerns about them voting for Leadsom?

There are 150,000 members of the Conservative party with an average age of 59.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

GMB Union, Labour endorsement ballot:
O. Smith: 59.8% (25,969 votes)
J. Corbyn: 40.2% (17,450 votes)

FFS, its a conspiracy if you don't win?

Yes ok.

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen

Imagine: if courts in Article 50 litigation hold consent of devolved governments also required, as well as an Act. But: the referendum question was about United Kingdom leaving the EU. No mandate unless it with all four nations.

That's an interesting point.

flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2016/08/10/brexit-enough-david-brent-this-is-serious/
Brexit - enough David Brent this is serious.
Blog opinion piece.

Conservative Manifesto. "safeguard British interests in the Single Market"

I have just written again to my MP. I wish I had seen this quote then. I referred to the manifesto talking about "continuing membership of the single market". Safeguarding British interests isn't the same thing - it's yet another woolly statement on a par with Brexit means Brexit or "We want our cake and eat it".

I did however have a lovely time contrasting Redwood's statements with Johnson's, pointing out that they were the complete opposite and that if two people within the same party couldn't agree, how could anyone possibly say what the other 17 million wanted?

FFS, its a conspiracy if you don't win?

Yes, and mandates from members only matter when they are for you.

So it may be slanderous but do you think those Tory voters who plumped for Brexit are prime UKIP targets for the next election?

I'm concerned that UKIP will really be on the rise because of Brexit dissatisfaction even though it looks hopeless as a party. Given that we seem to be in an age of anti-reason and anti "expert".