Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

Red I'm not sure if the 1848 comparison is meant to be hopeful or not, but just as a bleak little post scriptum to your post... the 1848 revolution in France led to the (democratic) election of Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte as President. Three years later, he declared himself Emperor, and started another 20-year long Empire.

Good times ahead!

Yes, what worries me is this disdain for facts/evidence. People KNOW they are being lied to - they just don't care. Melania's speech was a complete rip-off of Michelle Obama's. Will people care? No they won't.

All you need to do is to position yourself outside of the "political elite" and you've got a fair punt at power. People call billionaire Trump a 'normal fella', Farage, Johnson and Gove laughed at the so-called experts...The people's anger at the elites (often rightfully) mean they're only interested in getting rid of them. The fact that they are exchanging them for people who look set to fuck them over appears to make no difference to them.

Trying not to be the harbinger of doom, but I honestly, I don't see how we can have great times ahead, if we have a dictator on the edge of Europe and already much civil unrest from the presence of refugees.

Lets give the benefit of the doubt and say that Erdogan becomes a 'good dictator' and keeps his 'unique brand of oppression' contained within Turkey's borders. Dictators still have a nasty habit of dying at some point and leaving a power vaccum. Its a timebomb that will go off at some point and will have to be tackled - Europe will not escape being affected by it.

Brexit or no Brexit we will be dragged into whatever does end up happening - and the outcome is likely to be better for everyone if we do work together on the solution. For me, its not so much a question of if, more when it goes off and how we can control it. And by what means. Its a far bigger issue than the idea of Turkey in the EU with free movement of people, which has a certain irony.

It also does a lot to strengthen the argument for NEEDING the EU as a properly democratic and liberal institution which takes the place of a Napoleon which European nations are happy with.

I do think that it will push Eastern European nations closer to Brussels now, as they will be increasingly concerned about what is on their borders.

However the EU still needs this reform, or it does risk becoming an empire with a dictator at its helm.

sigh

Anyway this court case.

The government did not want a50 to end up in court and the remit of the royal prerogative questioned in anyway because of the potential scope of its power.

However its looking like it will be heard in court, no earlier than the third week in October.

This is not a victory for the government. They might win in the end and a50 may yet be confirmed that they can use royal prerogative.

More on the David Davies story.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-most-public-opponent-of-theresa-may-s-snooping-laws-stops-opposing-them-as-soon-as-he-a7144296.html

Reports are also coming in of a shooting in Spalding, Lincs. 3 dead. I hope it is not race or immigrant related...

Lincolnshire Police on Spalding shooting: "No indication that this is a terrorist related incident and no shots have been fired by police."

The problem with the law case against brexit, any law case, is that it feeds directly into the people's narrative of: 'Oh it's us against the elites. The wealthy lawyers/ bankers don't care about us.'

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-legality-challenged-in-court-judicial-review-eu-referendum-a7144171.html

Joshua Rozenberg @JoshuaRozenberg

Jason Coppel QC for Brexit Secretary David Davis: triggering article 50 will not occur before end of 2016.

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen · 10m10 minutes ago

Government confirmation that no Article 50 decision before 2017 means, in effect, no Brexit until at least 2019.

Tom Cleaver @TJCleaver

@DavidAllenGreen And the opposite of Davis's position as recently as last Thursday:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/14/new-brexit-minister-david-davis-declares-article-50-should-be-tr/

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen · 5m5 minutes ago

Yes - Davis's (ie, Brexit department's) QC in court contradicted today what Davis said only last week on A50 timing.

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen · 4m4 minutes ago

Earliest possible activation of A50 will now be nearer first anniversary of referendum vote than actual referendum.

See how things slip.

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen ·
If government changes mind, and wants to activate Article 50 on 2016, it would need to publicly inform court that position changed.

David Allen Green ‏@DavidAllenGreen

So government not strictly bound by statement today on A50 timing (could be revoked) but it is effectively bound.

Helmet, I think that this is precisely why its being done by a hair dresser and crowdfunded.

Not that it will help get rid of that sentiment.

Foreign Office and Brexit Office off to a good start:
www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hands-off-our-staff-foreign-office-tells-brexit-secretary-6hr8r55tc?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Brexit+briefing+2016&utm_term=182275&subid=18988962&CMP=ema-3239
Hands off our staff, Foreign Office tells Brexit secretary

Brexit's new office will be No.9 Downing Street.

www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-ireland-idUSKCN0ZY28T
Irish PM fighting the UK's corner for a good Brexit deal.

news.sky.com/story/may-tells-ministers-politics-is-not-a-game-10505608
May's first cabinet meeting: She tells them "Politics is not a game. The decisions we take affect people's day to day lives".

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/low-wages-mean-most-britains-8445789
More on the graphs that Buzzfeed were talking about: Most of Britain's poor ARE working.

I should have actually read that link instead of following my own narrative.

That IS awesome. Good for him.

She tells them "Politics is not a game. The decisions we take affect people's day to day lives".

The fact that she needs to remind her Cabinet of this...

Alan Duncan appointed to "watch over" Boris?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-alan-duncan-deputy-foreign-office-silvio-borisconi-a7142086.html

Red that Mirror article is SO depressing because it completely misses the point about child poverty in working households.

Raising the minimum wage and increasing the starting point for income tax while at the same time cutting support to families through CB, tax credits, affordable housing is a transfer of wealth from those with children to those without. In the most sobering example the feckless fathers who carry on living the single life while leaving the mother to raise the children as single parents have been the primary beneficiaries of this policy first touted as a massive success story by the Lib/Dems. Lest I be accused of playing the AL card 90% of single parent families are headed by women and they make up by far the largest component of children in poverty.

My disgust with the Lib/Dems is this policy.

Yes, howabout, that is exactly the group that tax credits were designed to help: single parents - mainly women - and their children. Being in a single parent home is a major factor in child poverty, for pretty obvious reasons. Single mothers face major obstacles to finding work - the balance of childcare and working is harder for them, they tend to have to work shorter, difficult hours, they tend to have large gaps in employment history, other issues (eg. they are less likely to be able to move in with friends/family while re-entering the job market) - all of which impact on the level at which they enter/re-enter/engage with the job market.

Tax credits supported this obstacle-strewn, low-entry point for single mothers who aimed to work.

But I remember Mumsnet being in uproar at the mere suggestion that Tax Crdits were a Good Thing. The whole discourse around them was that they were a subsidy for employers to pay low wages.

That, of course, has some truth, though I would say that the benefit to single mothers far outweighed the drawbacks. And it's also quite amusing that those people who moan that the EU disallows protectionism within states moaned about this particular side-effect of tax credits.

"IMF cuts UK growth forecasts following Brexit vote
Predictions revised down from April as IMF says EU referendum result has ‘thrown a spanner in the works’ of global recovery"

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/19/imf-cuts-uk-growth-forecasts-following-brexit-vote

Brexageddon
BBC2 comedy. With a big dig at Johnson.
10pm TONIGHT

indy100.independent.co.uk/article/theres-going-to-be-a-new-tv-show-called-brexageddon--ZkWLz_pfxIW

www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-media-bias-labour-mainstream-press-lse-study-misrepresentation-we-cant-ignore-bias-a7144381.html
Jeremy is a victim of the media. We need to change it.

Momentum have changed their official name again.
Momentum Campaign Ltd changes its name to Jeremy For Labour Ltd.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jonathan-arnott/ukip-leader-jonathan-arnott_b_11050802.html?utm_hp_ref=uk&
The Kippers have a second leadership candidate. Johnathan Arnott.
He announced last week (on the 11th) apparently. This is genuinely the first time I've picked up on it!

He is a MEP for the North East.
Arnott was Head of Mathematics at Handsworth Christian School. He is known for his belief that those in politics should keep doing a real-world job, and therefore he continued to teach on a part-time basis until his election as an MEP. His first major role in UKIP was as the party's General Secretary; he left the position after six years in August 2014.
He went to university at age 15 to do maths, eventually getting a Masters.

He seems to regularly write for the Huff post
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jonathan-arnott/
More of his comments are here. The one on the Army on the Streets in Brussels perhaps is the one most worth reading.

He seems a serious candidate. I can't find the usual UKIP gaffes with a quick search.

The media bias against Corbyn becomes surreal when you think about the damage Cameron's referendum has actually done and potentially will do. And I say that as someone who isn't a Corbyn fan.

When I think about the MS media, I just get massively depressed.

indy100.independent.co.uk/article/migration-in-europe-explained-in-four-maps--W1Ze1FKbb8b
Migration in Europe in 4 maps.

On the day that polls show that Trump is now neck and neck with Clinton (though don't forget the electoral college)
This bit of wisdom full of joy and nice sparkly things makes the Guardian
www.theguardian.com/books/2016/jul/19/trump-co-writer-says-candidate-could-end-civilisation-the-art-of-the-deal-tony-schwartz?CMP=twt_gu
Find God. Any God. Get praying.

just to add a little fuel to the Momentum conspiracy theories, this morning's YouGov polls found that longstanding (>12 months) Labour members would vote Corbyn out. It's the new (

I'm really shocked at all the "traitor" stuff. It puts such a negative emotional spin on what should be a normal part of the political process - since when has internal disagreement and criticism not been ok? Especially when expressed through the proper official channels, as in the case of a vote of non-confidence.

It sounds so unhealthy and cult-ish to me.

The "traitor" stuff just sounds like Britain First crap. Anyone against us is a traitor. Similarly, anyone anti-Corbyn is a Blairite. All tactics to intimidate and shut people up.