Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

I agree Bread, these threads are fantastic.
A little light entertainment for all:
m.youtube.com/watch?v=m3_I2rfApYk

A good fun video which explains it very well.

What is really annoying me right now is the Brexit means Brexit mantra, because "that's democracy" even though it was an advisory referendum, but 16 million of us are being told to get stuffed. If the vote had been 20 million to 13 million I would have thought well, that's not what I want but is a clear enough mandate.

Another brilliant thread- another several days to reach the end of it!

I just wanted to comment on this by Unicorns: I read an interesting article in Le Figaro today. Admittedly my French is GCSE, but from what I understood, Brexit has caused the us to back off from the ttip deal they've been negotiating for years and come back with worse terms in both customs and regulatory approvals.

I was translating something about this the other day- at the press conference following the meeting, the US chief negotiator was making heavy weather of 20% of US exports to the EU going to the UK, and the subtext was very much "so without the UK, the rest of you better order in more lube!" US already pretty intransigent over geographical protections, citizens' data etc and this is clearly an excellent pretext for them to dig in their heels even further. I don't get the feeling there'll be a lot of goodwill towards the UK by the time they're done...

Fascinating angle wrt referendum voters:
A thinktank analysed data from the large British Election Study and - rather than income levels - they found
the best predictor of which way people voted is their attitude to the death penalty & to corporal punishment

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-36803544

What united Leave voters in focus groups in the run-up to the referendum was support for a whole set of "traditional" values:

"They tended to value things like order, stability and safety against things like openness, modernity and other social-liberal values that were more popular among Remain voters."
"Often it's about harking back to the past - sometimes a feeling that they don't belong to the present."

Completely agree Peregrine.

Totally agree, Peregrina.
It's interesting how, in the video, the event of Brexit never happening at all is seen as a distinct possibility. I know it's not a scientific research, but I have wondered whether this might end up happening.

The link between people who don't like human rights and Brexit does not fill me with hope or optimism for the future.

The commonwealth has 5 (competing) trade groups:

• Caribbean Community (12 members)
• Southern African Customs Union (5 members)
• East African Community (4 members)
• South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (4 members
• New Zealand, Australia (quasi-trading block of 2)

There’s no sign that all these will merge into one convenient group with which we could quickly negotiate and combine.

Btw, the EU has a FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with the Caribbean and South Africa, plus deals pending with Canada and India.
So, Brexit would result in less free trade with the Commonwealth for years, until the UK negotiates FTAs

The BBC reports:
“Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said a free trade agreement with the UK was a priority, although such treaties are complicated and can be time-consuming.
Australia’s recent trade deal with China, for example, took a decade to negotiate.”

Axeman on German train now.

It's eye-watering how long some trade agreements take to set up.

So why on earth does David Davis think it can all be wrapped up in two years, or was that just Daily Mail spin? Who knows who would be in Government in ten years time, or even which parties will still be around?

yeah been reported as a 17 year old afghan
sigh

Trident vote didn't go Scotland's way. The SNP are now saying its the final nail in the coffin for the Union pointing out that:
Scotland votes SNP, gets Tory gov.
Scotland votes Remain, get's Brexit.
Scotland elects majority anti-Trident MPs, gets Trident.

Democracy?

sigh

Can I go back to summer 2012? That year was quite good.
Is 2016 just revenge for the Olympic summer of goodness?

YY Peregrina. Before Brexit, Donald Tusk said he thought it could take up to five years, but I imagine it was dismissed as scaremongering. We'll see, though, won't we?

'Is 2016 just revenge for the Olympic summer of goodness?'

I was watching that earlier and thinking exactly the same thing. It's like a melancholy reflection in a distorting mirror. I really wonder if I know the UK any more and it does feel as though I thought I knew the direction we were travelling in and suddenly that has been abruptly changed - and we're off somewhere I'm not sure I want to go.

Davies has talked about a 'soft exit' so we live bit by bit somehow.

I have no idea what he's on about either

Yes I agree Peregrina, and Red. I remember the Olympics fondly. There was all that talk of 'Britain being a multi-racial society at ease with itself'. Doesn't seem quite the same 4 years later. Did it just evaporate or was it an illusion?

Re Trident, it's this sort of thinking

"The problem is that the [Devonport] dockyard is in a densely populated area and, if there were an accident, thousands of people would be at risk. The worst accident scenario envisaged by the MoD would kill up to 11,000 people in Plymouth and would not meet the official criteria for what is acceptable, according to a new report." ( Article in Guardian in 2013)

....that makes the Scots feel expendable cynical, given Faslane's proximity to Glasgow and the Central Belt and prevailing westerly winds

That's even before you get into the morality of WMDs

I don't know Hester. I watched the Imagine programme on iplayer about the making of the opening ceremony today and asked myself the same question. (Its very good)

I can't help but feel that was the peak of the UK in recent times and the last time we seemed really united as a country. Possibly THE last time.

It reminds me a little of when Boris Johnson was first elected Mayor of London. So many of my friends were aghast. One friend pointed out that it was kind of like the revenge of all of those who had felt extremely left out and cross about the image of 'London' - and the direction of the previous Mayor's policies - that they felt excluded from. I guess it must be annoying to feel yourself carried along on a current you loathe and even find threatening.

In some ways, Brexit is a little like that. There was all the hoopla about the Olmpics; Seb and his team off to chat to the world about the UK being a multi-racial society, the opening ceremony and its (progressive) message, all the fun architecture and sculptures ... and now the news that there is a correlation between 'Leave' and non-progressive attitudes.

I find it hard not to think of the reversability of what the two events (Brexit and the Olympics) might be interpreted to 'say' about the UK.

Of course, a Mayor is just for a set term; Brexit ...

Signed up as a Labour supporter earlier and will be voting for Smith as the best route to getting Corbyn out. Not sure how feasible it is, but I have to give it a go. Least dirty thing in the laundry basket indeed.

Going back to a comment earlier in the thread - I think the uk never really accepted the idea that the EU should ever be a political union.

The Empire was acquired mainly by colonisation of sparsely inhabited territory such as the us, Canada and Australasia, or by ruthlessly enforcing trade agreements at gunpoint if necessary - India. The Empire only became an empire yo protect the trade agreements and that's what a lot of people in the uk think the Eu should be doing.

I cling to the hope that trade has always been of paramount importance to the uk and that this isn't sacrificed on the altar of racism....

Listening to the trump campaign- it really is similar to brexit - make us great again/we want change.

I agree, Helmet. The powerless people kicking back at the establishment / those in power, with a harking back to the 'good old days'. Misguided, though. Will those 'pretenders' really devolve power and wealth to those who vote for them? No.