Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

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This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

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So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

Of course she had choices.

Putting Boris Johnson into the Foreign Office was a choice.

She could have done otherwise.

All this "ooooh, the mad Leavers mean we have to dance to their every tune forever" is just horseshit.

If there was "no choice" in yesterday's appointments, why were so many people surprised by them?

There were plenty of ways to play it.

It wouldn't have been remotely undemocratic to have appointed a Foreign Secretary that wasn't a direct insult to most of the people we need to negotiate with.

We are now in the teeth of a serious constitutional crisis with long term consequences for all of us.

Tactical moves based on internal Westminster considerations are short-sighted and likely to backfire.

It's just like Cameron's referendum pledge all over again.

"Oh, if we just give them this, they'll realise what's at stake and then become reasonable"

No. They won't. Ever.

And constantly mollifyimg them with promises you can't keep is not working.

The Mail offices were conflicted, as evidenced by the Mail on Sunday coming out for Remain, but Dacre was firmly Leave, so I guess the DM had to fall in line. The DT wavered until the last minute, editorially they were not backing Brexit full on til the end, and probably only did it then because their readers are so fanatically Leave they would probably not have recovered if they didn't go with them.

On TM's character, Giles Fraser has just written this which is fairly speculative and does indicate how little most journos know of her, but gives some hope that she may be a genuine public servant. Or that could be another unicorn.

I'm farming in Scotland so I'm relying on the Scottish government not fucking Leadsom. I don't need farm subsidies though. I just want a better deal for farmers generally e.g. supermarket deals for dairy farmers. I don't even begin to understand all the ins and outs. Despite all the general hate on here, British farmers have high standards, work hard and are some of the best people I know. We could perhaps become more self sufficient as far as food production goes.

I've read the Corbyn-related articles (many thanks for them) and they chime with my feelings about Corbyn (and Momentum). I find myself STILL mystified by the devotion to 'Jeremy'. I truly just take it as proof that we have entered an extraordinarily irrational moment in politics.
ShowMe good point about the opacity of governance of Momentum.
I do wonder if the majority of Corbynites and Momentum members truly know what they have signed up to? And whether that is the same thing as their wishes, fantasies and dreams?
The 'marketing' of 'Jeremy' strikes me as something akin to how I would imagine Simon Cowell would set about manufacturing and promoting a fake 'alternative' band. And just as manufactured and cynical.
The reports of the Brighton and Hove CLP take-over and the shocking phoning of Eagle's de-selectors by Corbyn are just extremely worrying.
It's grim.

"Oh, if we just give them this, they'll realise what's at stake and then become reasonable"

You see deep down I KNOW this. Its just I can't shake that feeling at the back of my head, and to be blunt, I don't understand how they can still can't see how they think they can make it work. I either want them to prove me wrong or for there to be Gandalf on that ruddy unicorn rather than the inevitable disaster zone that I see as the alternative.

Giles Fraser's article is interesting. So St Theresa is High Church - this would be the Tory party at prayer, wouldn't it? I wonder how great the cross-section of society her father's parishioners would have been? I am sure that she is sincere in her beliefs.

I guess the hope is not that the fanatical Brexiteers will see reason, but that the realities of negotiation can expose them to the public for what they are, and finally drive a wedge between them and opinion. This would need the support of the press to happen though. I think the DT would come round, not sure about the DM etc.

I can't see Loathsome becoming reasonable - she doesn't realise that she isn't.

Kate Maltby in this Guardian piece indicates that we were going to end up with Johnson as FO anyway, as Cameron dangled it in front of him as a bribe to back Remain.

I think she could have stood up to the rabid Brexiters and said I'm on charge, you get what you get, but we know Arron Banks is waiting in the wings with his £10m and his creepy database and profiling methods, to sweep in and pick up all those who feel that the Government is not going hard enough on Brexit. Many of those voters don't have a clue what's involved, there are people I know who think we've left already.

It is criminal, frankly, that the only functioning opposition we have at the moment is in Scotland. Those of us in England who are just trying to work out what the hell happens next, and hope that it doesn't ruin us completely, have to rely on a devolved government to grab hold of the handbrake if it looks like things are going south.

yy peregina in her mind everyone else is wrong and will eventually accept that she is correct

www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/west-london-news/labour-rebels-defy-ban-meetings-11618815

RedToothBrush - "Is May a politician who would do the best thing for her country over and above her own career - even if it meant falling on her sword in order to do that?

It could be argued that she is an example of a woman at the glass cliff: being offered an impossible role precisely because she will be prepared to do whatever is necessary, even if that includes falling on her sword for the good of the country. Even though it wasn't her mess in the first place.

If the Union does break up (for example), the blame shouldn't be laid at her feet. It's firmly the fault of Cameron.

Time will tell.

thecat I agree. This weird personality cult seems to have developed around Jeremy Corbyn. Any criticism, however mild, and it's open season.

I'd be ver interested to learn more about Momentum. If, as pp have stated, it's all about keeping JC as leader that seems extraordinarily short sighted. Surely it can't just be that?

I've also been following the news abothe the suspension in Brighton and Hove. It seems byzantine in its complexity but from what I can gather, long term party members are concerned by what seems to be infilitration by a far left group and this is why the decision has been taken. Apparently they are trying to get the local MP, Peter Kyle, de-selected. Others deny Momentum are trying to get MPs de-selected. Although those denying it are...yes, you guessed it...Momentum members.

www.lse.ac.uk/media@lse/research/pdf/JeremyCorbyn/Cobyn-Report-FINAL.pdf
Academic report by the LSE on the media's treatment of Jeremy Corbyn by LSE.

For those who don't want to read, there's a handy graph to summarise.

For anyone who is more interested in how much the media is twisting things, its an interesting case study.

This is an interesting "insider's take" on TM

Sorry if this comes up green, I have no idea why.
One of my Facebook contacts is a Corbyn fan and this popped up from Brighton www.facebook.com/MomentumBrighton/photos/a.579284692225380.1073741828.579252465561936/695292033957978/?type=3&theater

More here:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/15/labour-suspends-brighton-branch-amid-accusations-of-improper-ballot

Apologies if this has been linked already, I'm a bit fuzzy headed today.

Interesting Red.

The Guardian (for example) is constantly attacked by Corbyn fans for its biased coverage but if that's to be taken at face value, they actually have more positive/neutral articles than any other paper.

Thanks DoubleMum

I found a link on their Facebook site to what I think is their official website.

www.peoplesmomentum.com/

And this is from their 'About' page:

www.peoplesmomentum.com/about

It's all a bit woolly.

It states that they are independent from but supportive of the Labour Party.

There really was NO choice about appointing a Brexit team.
That referendum couldn't be negated anymore than negating the next GE if UKIP win.
The FS had to be a big name Leaver - that means Boris / Loathsome (she can't work with Gove or IDS). There is no reasonable Brexiter hidden away in the HoC cellar

David Davies is v determined, but also v honest - remember his byelection on a principle.
He also has 2 years plus whatever time before A50 is invoked to get a reality check.
He would present the truth about a deal, warts & all
TM would decide what to do then
btw, it is just possible Davis is just trying to terrify the EU as a negotiating ploy, make them think he really is that ignorant / stubborn. So he can get the best EEA deal.

Leavers like Loathsome & Farage will never see reason.
However, 52% of the country aren't fanatics, just mistaken
Some of them will eventually accept facts BUT only if their own team are allowed to go all out for a unicorn deal.
They are not ready now. Almost all still believe.

We probably need opinion to change to 55:45 for Remain before TM is able - without major civil unrest - to revoke A50.
Or indeed similar figures to accept an EEA deal with EU immigration.
According to constitutional lawyers, she & the HoC can legally revoke A50 anytime before the 2 years are up.
The HoC would NOT vote down A50 atm, or revoke it later, unless the situation is desperate.

Just catching up. Double Yes this is a Momentum led 'thing' to meet to replace the Branch and CLP meetings across the country. The irony about calling cancellation of meetings undemocratic when Momentum has no governance and is in itself undemocratic. They are also obsessive about the Labour party rule book - encouraging people to read it and use it at CLP's when ...you've guest it ...they have no rules..at all.

The thing is as all local chapters are meant to be t=just that - where are the directives coming from? who are they coming from. If it is JC he is contravening the ethos of an NEC directive. If it's not him then who is it?

Articles aren't prejudiced if they are telling the plain truth:
JC is a dreadful disaster for the Labour Party and may well destroy it.
He is a total disaster for all the people in the country that need a strong Labour to defend their interests

What would be totally improper is to invent stories against him.
The plain truth is sufficiently grim without embellishment

www.itv.com/news/story/2016-07-15/live-updates-bastille-day-lorry-attack-leaves-84-dead/
Corbyn on Nice.

Flip yes there is no governance. No explanation of how they are organised to the top. No information about who they are. Nothing about complaints or procedures etc.

But they are taking over the party at the grass roots. I have only started looking into them after I witnessed their behaviour at a CLP. Prior to that I knew very little about them. But I have a gut feeling about how ethical they are and the more I dig the more concerned I get

Britain Elects ?@britainelects, today
YouGov poll / 12 – 13 Jul

1. David Cameron has been Prime Minister for six years. Britain is now (x) to live in:
   Better country: 23%
   Worse country: 44%

2. Do you expect Theresa May will do well/badly as PM:
   Well: 46%
   Badly: 24%