Westminstenders Contines. Boris outmaneovered everyone?! Now War and Peace?

[RedToothBrush]

THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TEN

-----------------

This set of threads started out asking if Boris had been outmanoeuvred by Cameron handing him a poison chalice. Fate made it seem as if Boris lost the battle but May has confounded everyone and handed him a second chance. Or so it might seem.

May now has a new Cabinet after a sweeping cull of Cameron's lot. It is more right wing than in a generation. A number of appointments have raised eyebrows. There are plenty of poison chalices and plenty of Brexiteers. Will this create peace in the Tory ranks? Or is it just the calm before the storm

Labour are tearing themselves apart what now seems to be all out civil war. Talk of gerrymandering, violence, disenfranchisement, deselection and intimidation are rife. The seems to be no end in sight, and no prospect of a solution apparent. The question perhaps seems to be when and how, rather than if the party will split, and who will retain the name and party funds.

-----------------

So the sad face of British politics in the last two days can be summed up in a single image. Boris and a brick.

Depressed?

I think we have a while to go yet before we hit the bottom.

Excuse me with the intros as I'm starting to struggle to keep up with things myself

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2684990-The-Westminster-Hunger-Games-Contines-May-Day-May-Day Previous Thread Nine

BigChoc the LSE report looked at quotes from Corbyn himself, from others, and whether they were taken out of context in the body of the report. It makes for interesting reading.

Red That is a lovely tribute he gave. And I am sure he has a good heart.

I like that tribute. Measured and thoughtful.

Showme yes, I noticed immediately the lack of transparency and clarity. It's very soundbitey but without any real substance behind it.

It appears Momentum is actually a company - a kind friend has found out

beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09655767

The company is new and have filed no accounts. ICO details

Interesting. Before that it was called a different name:
JEREMY CORBYN CAMPAIGN 2015 (SUPPORTERS) LTD
Company Number 09655767
Key Data

Name: JEREMY CORBYN CAMPAIGN 2015 (SUPPORTERS) LTD
Category: PRI/LTD BY GUAR/NSC (Private, limited by guarantee, no share capital)
Number: 09655767
Status: Active
Incorporation date: 24/06/2015
Business Category

NONE SUPPLIED
None Supplied
None Supplied
About JEREMY CORBYN CAMPAIGN 2015 (SUPPORTERS) LTD

JEREMY CORBYN CAMPAIGN 2015 (SUPPORTERS) LTD is a PRI/LTD BY GUAR/NSC (Private, limited by guarantee, no share capital) registered on 24/06/2015 with company number 09655767. The company has a status listed as "Active". The business office is registered in Butlers Wharf West, 40 Shad Thames, London SE1 2YA, UK. The geo coordinates are 51° 30' 14.3" N 0° 4' 29" W.

My thinking very much follows that of BigChocFrenzy.

Assuming TM is going for a moderate Brexit (and we just don't know if this is the case), she has almost no room for manoeuvre. The one single thing she can do is to slow down the pace as much as possible in the hope that it becomes politically acceptable to have a public discussion, in which lies can be challenged, whether a moderate Brexit might actually be the most beneficial thing for the majority of the people in the UK before we are totally committed to going for hard Brexit.

But who knows what's she's up to? She might have a plan or she might just be playing Westminster games. It'll be a year or more before we start seeing which it is.

Agree with mother. We cannot invoke on the basis that we can revoke any time in the 2years, what chaos that would be. We need to get the lie of the land before invoking IMO. They say not discussions until we invoke, we say no invoking until they talk to us, who breaks first...

James Brokenshire calling for the Irish border to remain open.

Nice work, James.

At least someone is looking at this with clear eyes and putting the welfare of the Irish first.

One day in the job.

This augurs well.

Sorry, BigChoc, I think you are alone on earth in believing that appointing Boris was not a choice.

Most expert commentators think it was a wheeze, and a poorly judged one.

And noises from diplomatic circles are not favourable to the UK.

The Leave voters were not the only, or even the most important, stakeholders here.

Many of them don't trust Boris as a genuine Leaver anyway.

So he is open to the same criticism at home as a competent Remainer would have been.

Well, that explains why none of us knew much about them prior to Jeremy Corbyn's election as leader - because prior to that Momentum as a movement didn't really exist.

And looking at the dates it appears that they were set up specifically for the purpose of supporting his camapaign. And was registered shortly afterwards (JC's nomination was on the 3rd of June, the company registered on the 24h of June).

It has Jon Lansman listed as the director -more here:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Lansman

Jon Lansman www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12060177/The-cheerleader-for-Corbyn-who-supports-sons-schemes-to-sell-off-homeless-hostels.html
www.checkcompany.co.uk/director/10506058/JON-LANSMAN

doinitfine Noone here likes Boris, but several of us seem to think TM's other choices for FS were even worse. A Remainer was politically impossible.

motherof4dragons Most constitutional lawyers plus the French Attorney General (or equiv title) think that A50 can be revoked right up until the UK actually leaves the EU.
It is a political decision.
Basically, "if there's a will, there's a way"

The Lisbon treaty is what's called an "enabling treaty" and unless something is expressly excluded, then it can be agreed.
If the UK government changes its mind and wants to Remain, it is likely the EU would want to keep its 2nd largest member and net contributor.

Expert Political opinion ex-LD MEP Andrew Duff
http://verfassungsblog.de/brexit-article-50-duff/

Under section 50(3):
“That Article 50 is silent on the matter of revocation does not mean that a change of direction would be illegal under EU law (as long as the CJEU were convinced that the switch was constitutional).

The EU is well practised in the art of the stopped clock.

Given the collateral damage done to the remaining EU by Brexit, a notification that London had changed its mind would be met with very great, if somewhat exasperated relief.”

BBC Brexit Poll
Conducted 7-10 July, so before reshuffle

http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/BBC-NewsTablessBrexit-Expectations11072016.pdf

• 66% think that priority #1 is maintaining access to the single market

• 31% think #1 is restricting freedom of movement (31%).
  BUT 45% would be dissatisfied with continued EU immigration from the EU in exchange for access to the single market.

Indicates grudging acceptance of EEA

DISTRUST

• 72% do not trust leading politicians to do a good job of carrying out the will of the British people during Brexit

• 50% do not trust civil servants on this.

Shows political constraints under which TM is forced to operate and why she had to make Brexiters responsible for a Brexit deal

On the subject of revoking article 50, this is what the Law Society had to say in its Brexit briefing dated 28 June 2016 entitled "Everything you need to know about Article 50"

"Questions have also been raised as to the possibility of reversing a decision to withdraw after Article 50 has been triggered. This question was addressed by the House of Lords' EU Committee in its report published in May. Both expert witnesses agreed that the decision to withdraw can be reversed before the withdrawal agreement has come into effect. The Lords Committee report also concluded that Article 50 is the only way of withdrawing from EU membership consistent with EU and international law."

The tribute from Corbyn was good, it was what is expected of someone in his position.

I had some issues with that LSE study, mainly with their assertion that calling him a 'friend of terrorists' is antagonistic, when it is in fact using his own words.

flippin - the Guardian get hammered because they are not relentlessly positive, as any criticism is deemed to be attacking Corbyn. It is also very visible on the Guardian site because they are less likely to delete. There used to be a fair amount of criticism of the DTelegraph on their Corbyn articles but they were very heave handed with the modding, and then closed the comments altogether.

Boris apparently has a contract with a publisher to deliver a book about Shakespeare for the 400th anniversary. He's been paid £500k, it is due on sale on October 20th and there's no manuscript yet. It is also suggested that he won't be able to keep his £250k DT column (mainly because it won't look very good), so maybe the idea is to make it unaffordable for him and he'll have to quit? (yes, that is a very thin straw I'm grasping at)

Thanks Double!

Remember her tartan suit when she announced going for the leadership too.

Oh, yes!

And, agree to pp that France got more important stuff on its mind than dealing with the tedious UK

Re a50 revoking

There is no yes / no answer on whether it can be revoked. The fact that lawyers are involved means it is a dangerous gamble.

You could trigger a50, in the hope it could be revoked but it could also be easily challenged legally - this is not a situation you want (could take a long time to resolve one way or another), worst still you could loose.

(I have learnt from the previous couple of weeks on twitter, when people say 'it is clear' when talking about complicated things which involve lawyers, that it really not clear otherwise you would not need lawyers)

In short, you don't want a50 triggering until you ARE ready. Completely ready.

Revoking is a last resort, if the 3 Brexiteers don't get an acceptable deal
It is political, so can't be relied on or be a negotiating tactic
It can only be done once and would leave the UK looking very silly, shambling back, but that's better than a crashed economy.

The distrust levels on that BBC poll I quoted are really worrying.
Something fundamentally wrong with the relations between politician and public

One politician who earned great respect & affection:
Thousands of mourners paid respects at Jo Cox funeral
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/15/jo-cox-funeral-brings-thousands-of-mourners-on-to-streets

Yes RedToothBrush and BigChoc, agreed that revoking article 50 is uncertain and less than ideal.

On the upside, it does appear that the French legal service agrees with our expert advice- I was trying to where I read it and it is this guardian article www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/brexit-can-go-ahead-without-parliament-vote-article-50-government-lawyers-say?CMP=share_btn_link

"At a separate hearing of the Treasury select committee, leading constitutional lawyers revealed that the French government legal service has informed the French government that the UK would be entitled to rescind a notice to withdraw even though it had invoked article 50."

A Remainer was politically impossible.

That is your reading of it.

It is not a popular one.

You could make the same argument about May as PM, but here she is.

She was the new PM, there will be no electio for 4 years.

She had plenty of options.

Including not entirely gutting the existing cabinet.

But she didn't.

Boris was a shocking move that has caused surprise and offence around the world.

Of course there were options other than to do that.

If it had been as inevitable as you claim, the response would have been very different.

Boris is no more trusted by Leavers than Remainers.

One interpretation of her cabinet choices is that she is setting the Brexiteers up to fail so she can row back on Article 50.

According to your logic, that shoukd be a political impossibility. And yet she's done it.

A new Tory PM is given a lot of latitude by the party to choose their team.

There were other strategies.

May chose this one.

I think it was a mistake.

Overly focused (as usual) on domestic concerns and not the reality of the UK's position.

If the UK revokes Article 50 after 1 year 364 days, can the EU charge us for all the wasted work it's had to do?

Given the collateral damage done to the remaining EU by Brexit, a notification that London had changed its mind would be met with very great, if somewhat exasperated relief.”

But we would have to eat a very large helping of humble pie, and keep our heads down for a good few years.

Overly focused (as usual) on domestic concerns and not the reality of the UK's position.

I don't entirely agree here. The lack of attention to the domestic concerns of large parts of the population is IMO a major contributory factor to the Brexit vote. If the whole country had been enjoying prosperity and issues like schooling, housing and the NHS had been addressed, I doubt whether the EU would have been the scapegoat it became.

Place marking. Continues to be an imformative thread.