David Allen Green in The Financial Times this morning. (written yesterday)
David Davies, Brexit and the shapelessness of things to come
Mr Davies does not start from a strong position. he is not based in a large government department - indeed Mrs May seems to have shared the task of Brexit between the foreign office, a new department for international trade and Mr Davis's new ministry. He therefore appears to have no firm institutional base, and it is unclear the extent of any resources he will be able to direct to his task. It may well be that Mr Davis is the best politician for the task, but he has not been placed in the best possible position to accomplish it.
But the scale of his task is almost beyond comprehension. As was revealed by the evidence of Oliver Letwin, the previous minister responsible for Brexit, at the foreign office select committee hearing last week, it is not so much that the UK government does not have a plan for Brexit - it does not even know what is to go into a plan. It is barely in a state of pre-preparation for a political exercise that may take six year or more. Nobody in Whitehall or Westminster yet has a grasp of what needs to be done, let alone how to go about doing it.
The new prime minister is not a "leaker" - there is little indication that either she or her staff brief the press. So there is no steer, as yet, as to why she has made the appointment of Mr Davis, Mr Johnson and so on. Is she cynically setting them up to fail? Or is she saying that those who caused the mess should deal with it?
This week, another able Conservative politician Rory Stewart said at a City seminar the crucial distinction to be made in the politics of Brexit is between "will" and "capacity". One should not be confused with the other. It may well be that the new government is willing to go through with Brexit - but that is not enough. The UK has to be capable of going through with it too.
The politics - and policy - of Brexit, at least in practical terms, not becomes less about "will" and more about "capacity". Whether it will happen will become the servant of whether it can be made to happen. As of today, there is no policy shape to Brexit, there is only shapelessness. And unless shape can be given to the great Brexit adventure, it is an open question whether it will ever happen.
Now, David Allen Green is someone I have had a lot of time and respect for and have had for a number of years for talking sense. He is a lawyer and has said about the real complexities of leaving the EU.
Rory Stewart has also cropped up on my radar in the past for talking a certain amount of sense on particular subjects. He spent time on placement with the army before spending many years in the foreign office working on East Timor independence, British Rep to Montenegro straight after Kosovo, working in Iraq after the invasion and later working in Afghanistan. He is an academic on essentially 'political vacuums' writing a number of books about this and related issues. (He is an interesting character that's for sure)
It does strike me that there are some MAJOR hurdles ahead whichever way this goes.
Its also interesting that May's reshuffle has gone along these lines today. I do take the appointment of a lawyer to the cabinet quite seriously for this reason too. I don't think it is possible to understand what May has got on her plate.