The Westministenders / Media Baron Hunger Games continues. Who is trying to outmanoeuvre who?

[RedToothBrush]

Don't worry we've all lost track.

In the Blue Corner
It started out with Cameron and Osborne trying to win the battle of the Tories, but they got stung in a UK wide vote. Some of us thought it was about the 'EU'. Instead it has turned out it was an internal Tory Bitch fight between some old Oxford and Eton mates, whilst for others a protest vote at being disenfranchised.
Gove and Johnson stabbed Cameron & Osborne in the back to run for Team Leave. Then they won when they didn't expect to. And there was no Plan. Uh Oh. Then it all started to go really wrong.
Cameron quit in disgust. Johnson went all President Churchill, before he also got stabbed by Gove (possibly with the assistance of the dark influence of Osborne).
We now have a Tory Smackdown with the shadowy influence of the Media Barons in the background.

#Team Gove has been doing their best with the knives. This is a mission to stab as many Tory MPs in the back as possible in order to become PM. Sponsored and supported by Murdoch

#Team Leadsom has been selling more unicorns and trying to pretend her CV and tax return are completely transparent. Think positive and the economy will be just fine. She is the homeopathy of politics. Sponsored and supported by Arron Banks, Leave.eu, UKIP and Britain First.

#Team May has been threatening to deport everyone if the EU don't play nice. Sponsored and supported by The Daily Mail's Dacre

In The Purple Corner
Tragically, it appears that not only do UKIP have a Plan A, they also have outwitted everyone by having Plan B. Yes that’s right TWO plans.
Farage has swanned off –sacked—for a life on CBB so they are looking for a new leader.
The potential candidates are all equally loathsome. They include Arron Banks himself, a suspended member of the party and several other people with an uncanny ability to put their foot in their mouths.
If this wasn't horrible enough, Team Leadsom is increasingly starting to look like a UKIP take over bid of the Conservative Party, which might be a neat way of avoiding a leadership battle of their own considering the quality of the candidates on offer.

In short, its a bit like a Bad Dystopian Movie that invokes Godwin, set in 2016 Westminster. Except its real.
In the Red Corner
Meanwhile the WMD has finally gone off in the Labour Camp, as Chilcot has been published. However the Chicken Coup rattles on regardless.

Corbyn is STILL clinging on, putting in a good claim for the Westminster 'Charlie off Casualty' Award. He has however had his Big Moment in the Commons. Which was a bit of a let down really. ...

The Unions have been trying to talk some sense into everyone. Meanwhile everyone else is has given up and are now just praying for a ruddy miracle to end this torture and give the country an opposition party.

Angela Eagle is still outside for the 5th day in a row, going "I will stand. Soon. If he doesn't quit" The BBC now qualify for a discount deal at the local Travel Lodge.

We FINALLY know who the fuck Owen Smith is! He's a Welsh MP and sounds like he's not completely away with the political fairies.

George Galloway appears to be trying to make a late bid to be included on the ballot paper for any leadership election.
Bliar's cried. We didn't. Chilcot took over 2 million words to tell us everything we already knew. As well as the fact that Mi6 like Nicholas Cage a lot.

The Cult of Momentum are still worshiping their Dear Leader by sending death threats to PR companies they suspect of disloyalty. Somehow they still manage not to get the title of the most vile pressure group in the UK.

And I suppose I should ask, when will a50 be triggered....? And by whom?

All these questions and more.
Tin foil hats now available upon request

Sense of humour compulsory. No experience necessary though

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1 Previous thread 1

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2672388-Has-Boris-been-outmanoevered-Will-someone-please-tell-me-who-is-in-charge Previous thread 2

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/a2673982-Have-Boris-and-Jeremy-been-stabbed-in-the-back-Please-can-we-have-some-leaders Previous thread 3

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2675432-Boris-outmaneovered-Et-tu-Gove-Corbyn-The-Westministenders-Hunger-Games-Continues? Previous thread 4

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2678198-The-Westministenders-Hunger-Games-continues-Boris-still-trying-not-to-be-outmanoeuvred Previous thread 5

I can't see AE winning!

If she didn't, and Leadsom collasped the government, then it would be Corbyn v err someone. If Corbyn managed to win somehow, we would then have a situation where he faced a revolt, and a 2nd GE got triggered. (You couldn't make this shit up could you?)

Then in the 2nd GE, we could get the Unicorn or Juncker being PM cos everyone was so fucked off with the whole damn spectacle.

I'd vote for the unicorn, at least we'd get dinner.

Me either. I think Smith may have a chance though. His voting history is good, which is a definite plus. If he could work something out with Corbyn, even better. If he could stand today or tomorrow, prior to AE, he'd have the upper hand.

oooo F1. Thank you. IMPORTANT STUFF>>>>

The Lib Dems are doing things. No one is reporting it! Its too dull and well, actually focused on the job in hand rather than stabbing each other in the back.

I think they should market themselves as the boring gits. It might work. Ironically.

Smith, would have a good chance. I should see if there is betting on all this. I fancy a punt.

If only lib demos hadn't collapsed last year they would be possible viable alternative in imminent GE, as it its, also no, u less right wing labour and lib demos and greens genuinely sorted this alliance business but not enough time I suspect...

I just keep hearing Spice Girls when I see AE's picture with the articles saying she's soon going to announce a challenge.

"tell me what you want, what you really really want...."

This "I'm going to do it on Monday" is utterly ridiculous.

I have a funny feeling AL won't last.
She's way out of her depth and she must know it.

I think she'll retract her bid an a few weeks time.
I'm in no way qualified, just a wild guess

A vote of no confidence doesn't in itself trigger a general election: there is a 2 week period to allow an alternative government to be formed.

It is possible that a "Government of National Unity" could be formed during that time although God knows who would lead it

I think the only other way to overturn the Fixed Term Act is with a two-thirds majority in parliament.

We live in interesting times

Which has more chance of happening on Monday

• AE actually makes a challenge
• Loathsome releases her tax returns and distances herself from Britain First and Arron Banks
• we all wake up to find a unicorn has done the cleaning and food shopping for the week

At this point, I reckon the unicorn has the edge

Deffo uni on!

*unicorn

Boris Johnson would leap at the chance to lead a Government of National Unity, it would totally fuel his Churchill delusions.

I don't think I want to live in interesting times - I've barely done any work in the last two weeks because trying to figure out wtf is happening now is a full time job!!

I think that like many of the Little Englanders who still think that the UK has an Empire and the world owes it a living AL doesn't have any of the humility or self-awareness that would lead her to realise that she's not up to the job.

She genuinely thinks that being a mum her vast experience is sufficient.

I've got a plan. If Andy Murray wins tomorrow, could we persuade him and Gareth Bale to run the country? Maybe with some assistance from Rory McIlroy so NI stop being ignored?

I believe that "May you live in interesting times" is actually a Chinese curse rather than a description.

It's definitely proving to be a curse at the moment

Apologies if this is a stupid question - I'm not that informed when it comes to politics but this is baffling me and I'm hoping you can help...

What is the end game as far as AL and the far right are concerned? They appear to be deliberately aiming for universal ruination, but this seems a perverse course of action. So who really benefits and how??

Betting odds fun

Year of next election
2020 4/6 (FAV)
2016 5/2
(2016 odds have come in massively)

Corbyn to ever become PM
5/1

article 50 to be triggered
2018 or later or not at all - 6/4 (Fav)
Jan 1 to Mar 31 2017 - 4/1
Apr 1 to June 30 2017 - 9/2
Oct 1 to Dec 31 2016 - 5/1
Jul 1 to Sep 30 2016 - 6/1
Jul 1 to Sep 30 2017 - 9/1
Oct 1 to Dec 31 2017 - 12/1
(Interesting...)

article 50 triggered in 2016
no - 4/9
yes - 8/5

Next chancellor
Andrea Leadsom - 7/2
Phillip Hammond - 7/2
Sajid Javid - 4/1
Chris Grayling - 8/1
Michael Gove - 8/1
Matthew Hancock - 16/1
Theresa May - 16/1
Greg Hands - 20/1
Jeremy Hunt - 20/1
Nicky Morgan - 20/1
Priti Patel - 20/1
Boris Johnson - 25/1
Liam Fox - 25/1
John McDonnell - 33/1
Justine Greening - 33/1
Michael Fallon - 33/1
Anna Soubry - 50/1
Chuka Umanna - 50/1
Nick Boles - 50/1
Nigel Farage - 50/1
Yvette Cooper - 50/1
Andy Burnham - 66/1
Douglas Carswell - 100/1

Theresa May percentage vote
65 - 70% - 9/2 (fav)
70 - 75% - 6/1
45 - 50% - 7/1
75 - 80% - 9/1
40 - 45% - 16/1
(odds lengthening on a May win and shortening on a loss)

GE Most Seats
Con - 2/5
Lab - 9/4
Any other - 25/1
UKIP - 33/1
Lib Dem - 50/1
Greens - 500/1
SNP - 500/1

GE Overall Majority Betting Odds
Con Maj - 11/10
No overall Maj - 11/8
Lab maj - 5/1
Any other party Maj - 50/1
Lib Dem Maj - 100/1
UKIP Maj - 100/1
Greens Maj - 1000/1
(I think that's an interesting one... Not as clear Cons would get a majority as you might think)

I'm Team Unicorn!!!!

What is the end game as far as AL and the far right are concerned? They appear to be deliberately aiming for universal ruination, but this seems a perverse course of action. So who really benefits and how??

It depends on who you are talking about.

AL - A return to the 1950s. This includes economically.
Right of the Tory Party in general - Economic superiority, destruction of the NHS, installation of Academies, reinstatement of Workhouses, Reintroduction of the death penalty, Workers rights bonfire, destruction of the unions, banning of abortion. Etc.
Arron Banks - Over thrown of the elite, so he can install himself into this role. I'm not sure just how sinister he is. It ranges from very to extremely.
Britain First - Nazis. Quite simply.

Take your pick. Which do you fancy? All are potentially on the cards with one wrong move.

What is the end game as far as AL and the far right are concerned? They appear to be deliberately aiming for universal ruination, but this seems a perverse course of action. So who really benefits and how??

I think Banks quite fancies being the new Murdoch, and being the puppetmaster. I agree with Red that AL is hankering for a return to the 50s.

annabell I have noticed allusions to "creative destruction" and the work of Joseph Schumacher (based on the work of Karl Marx, bizarrely).

I need to read more, though, and don't have time at the moment.

Which has more chance of happening on Monday

• AE actually makes a challenge
• Loathsome releases her tax returns and distances herself from Britain First and Arron Banks
• we all wake up to find a unicorn has done the cleaning and food shopping for the week

At this point, I reckon the unicorn has the edge

I'd personally need to know if the unicorn has children. Being a mother may give the unicorn an edge.

Of course the unicorn has children Ginger, who do you think it learned to cook roast dinners for?

Today has made me realise how fucking smart and on the ball Theresa May was to have done that DM interview.

It seemed weird at the time. But she had totally pre-empted all the qyestions that wete bound to come her way about her childlessness.

She couldn't have foreseen this Leadsom gaffe, but we would be in a different situation if the papers were able to go after her asking why she had no stake in our future.

Instead, Leadsom just looks like a bitch for tauntimg a woman who couldn't have children.

Schumpeter, not Schumacher, Patty. :)